Stimulus for the Long Run

It's No Time for Politics as Usual

The U.S. Senate’s “Dr. No,” Republican Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, best captured the need for political leadership in this time of crisis in accepting his nomination by President Barack Obama to be U.S. Secretary of Commerce: "Now is not the time for partisanship. Now is not the time to stand in our ideological corners and shout at each other. Now is the time to govern and govern well."

Unfortunately, many in Congress, including much of the leadership of both parties, still don't understand that the United States has entered a new civic political era, demanding new rules of behavior in response to our dire economic circumstances. Even as President Obama expresses the "fierce urgency of now," pointing out that if government does not act soon and vigorously it "will turn a crisis into a catastrophe," Congress still seems unable to put aside the ideological arguments and constant efforts to win partisan advantage that characterized American politics in the era the country has just left.

Congressional Republicans seem to believe that the economy can only be revitalized by tax cuts while Democrats say that only vast federal spending, some of it on the pet projects of Members, will produce economic recovery. As demonstrated by the recent House vote on final passage of the economic recovery bill, in which virtually all Democrats voted against all Republicans, working across party lines remains an elusive dream. Republican Members of Congress seem intent on following the strategy from their ideological battles with President Bill Clinton a decade ago in which the goal was to enforce party discipline in the hope that the President and his party would fail and Republicans could blame the Democrats in the next election. But with the stakes as high as they are now, the GOP should instead be listening to the author of that earlier strategy, Newt Gingrich, who has publicly made it clear that the country cannot afford for Obama’s economic recovery plan to fail.

Meanwhile, Democrats need to learn some new rules of behavior as well. While NDN's Globalization Initiative Chair Dr. Rob Shapiro has correctly noted that the recovery package now before the Senate contains only the "normal quotient of special interest subsidies on both the spending and tax sides -- think of it as a 'congressional tax,'" -- these clearly aren’t normal times. It may be true that, as Rob says, "they really can’t help themselves." But like others recovering from an addiction, Democrats will have to at least try to change their approach to building legislative consensus in this new era, one step at a time. 

The American public clearly sees the distinction between Congress' approach and that of President Obama. A Pollster.com compendium of national surveys indicates that 70 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of President Obama and 63 percent approve of his performance. By contrast, only 17 percent approve of the job Congress is doing, while 78 percent disapprove. More to the point, in a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, a plurality (42 percent) perceives Obama to be governing in a bipartisan manner. By contrast, only half that number believes the same of both congressional Democrats and Republicans (22 percent each).

Of course, there is a way out. Unlike the social issues that dominated American politics during much of the last four decades, the economic and fiscal issues that are the current focus can be bridged with a non-ideological, post-partisan, and pragmatic approach recognizing that each side may have something to offer. If properly targeted, the tax cuts advocated by Republicans should be useful. If aimed at the right mix of projects, the Democratic spending proposals should help the economy in the short run and provide the conditions for growth in the long run. Keeping people in their homes, as both parties seem to advocate, will help families, neighborhoods, and society.

In short, as Rob Shapiro points out the recovery package can be "a useful first step, and one for which NDN has long argued."

Unlike their legislative representatives, the public has moved on from the cultural wars of the last decade. In a late January Pew survey, more than eight in 10 named the economy (85 percent and jobs (82 percent) as top policy priorities for the federal government, significantly above the numbers saying this about any other issue. In a January Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, only seven percent cited “social issues” as an area on which government should focus compared to 21 percent who cited such cultural issues a decade ago. Paul Helmke, The Republican former mayor of Fort Wayne, Indiana, summed up the historical nature of the shift, telling Naftali Bendavid of the Wall Street Journal, that in a time of war and financial crisis, "people tend to focus on pragmatic issues rather than what the framers meant in 1789."

Throughout our history, major transformations or civic realignments have occurred at a time of intense national crisis that threatens the viability or even existence of the Republic. One such crisis occurred in the mid-19th century when the nation, led by Abraham Lincoln, overcame secession and a civil war to preserve the Union and end the moral blight of slavery. Another took place in the 1930s as America, spurred by Franklin D. Roosevelt, created the governmental institutions that allowed it to overcome the greatest economic downturn in its history and later to overcome the threats of fascism and communism.

The makeovers stemming from these crises change almost everything about U.S. government and politics -- voting alignments, public policy, and the rules by which politicians are expected to act and are judged by the American people (as we recently wrote in our essay, New Rules for a New Era). In the idealist periods before these civic realignments political figures more often than not act as moralists bent on the uncompromising advancement of ideological positions across virtually every policy concern--economic, international, and cultural -- and, more often than not, the public applauds and rewards this behavior. But, after civic realignments, faced with overwhelming and severely threatening crisis, the behavioral expectations and evaluative standards of politicians are altered. The public wants politicians to work across party and institutional lines on a non-ideological basis to produce pragmatic policies that deal with the crisis facing the nation. It's time for the House and Senate to follow the lead of President Obama and the American people and adopt new rules for a new era.

NDN Backgrounder: The Politics of Economic Recovery

As the U.S. Senate continues its consideration of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, NDN is pleased to offer much of our recent, narrative shaping work on the economy, recovery, and keeping the focus on everyday people. For last week's economic backgrounder, click here

  • Politics and the Economic Crisis by Dr. Robert Shapiro, 1/9/2009 - Shapiro argues that, for an economic recovery plan to be effective, we must also address the underlying causes of the "Great Recession," including the housing crisis.
  • Getting the Stimulus Right by Michael Moynihan, 1/6/2009 - Moynihan makes a number of suggestions for ensuring that the upcoming, record-size stimulus package is a success, including a board to oversee the vast expenditures.
  • A Stimulus for the Long Run by Simon Rosenberg and Dr. Robert Shapiro, 11/14/2008 – This important essay lays out the now widely agreed-upon argument that the upcoming economic stimulus package must include investments in the basic elements of growth for the next decade, including elements that create a low-carbon, energy-efficient economy.
  • Back to Basics: The Treasury Plan Won't Work by Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/24/2008 - As the financial crisis unfolded and the Bush Administration offered its response, Shapiro argued that, while major action was needed, the Treasury's plan would be ineffective.
  • Keep People in Their Homes by Simon Rosenberg and Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/23/2008 – At the beginning of the financial collapse, NDN offered this narrative-shaping essay and campaign on the economic need to stabilize the housing market.
  • Video: At the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Newark Mayor Cory Booker discusses his work reinventing a vision for government and innovation. This message of change is timely as America works through these tough economic times and begins to shape a 21st century economy and 21st century government.

NDN Backgrounder: Economic Recovery and Keeping People in Their Homes

Over the past two days, NDN has offered important, leading commentary on economic recovery and the need to keep people in their homes. Dr. Robert Shapiro, Chair of NDN's Globalization Initiative, wrote "Obama's Post-Partisan Plan Almost Where It Should Be."

While the chorus of complaints about President Barack Obama’s spending and tax package was dispiritingly predictable, the post-partisan surprise is that its basic structure is evolving to just about where it should be. The legislative process is adding its normal quotient of special interest subsidies on both the spending and tax sides -- think of it as a "congressional tax," because they really can’t help themselves. And compared to the last decade of limitless tolerance for the unregulated escapades of Wall Street financiers that’s now pushing many of the world’s economies over a cliff, the partisan outrage at this conventional if distasteful part of the legislative process seems pretty hollow.

The important matter here is that at its core, the package should do roughly what we want it to, given the gravity of current conditions and our equally serious, longer-term problems with wages and jobs. (There is one gaping exception: nothing serious yet to address the foreclosure and housing crisis). In effect, the Administration has cleverly packaged some broadly useful, longer-term economic and social initiatives with some traditional “stimulus,” and it’s selling it as the answer to the crisis. It provides some of that answer -- unfortunately, not all of it by a long shot -- but it also offers the Administration’s first responses to other legitimate matters on which President Obama happened to win his election.

Read the full piece here. 

On the need to keep people in their homes, an issue NDN has led on since the financial meltdown, NDN Fellow Michael Moynihan argued that "What America Needs is a Fixed 4% Mortgage."

In short, America needs three things to stimulate the economy: the recovery package that is now approaching passage; a plan to revitalize the banking sector, which the Treasury Department should release soon; and finally, a 4% fixed-rate mortgage to address the housing crisis. Fixing the housing problem was mysteriously absent from the Bush efforts to address the crisis. Now that Obama economic team is in place, the Administration and Congress should work rapidly to develop this critical third piece of the economic recovery.

Read the full piece here.

For more of NDN's leading work on keeping people in their homes, please see the following pieces and click here for the Keep People in Their Homes page:

  • Notes on the Financial Crisis by Michael Moynihan, 9/26/2008 - Moynihan examines the panic fueled by the Bush Administration's inadequate response to the financial meltdown.
  • Back to Basics: The Treasury Plan Won't Work by Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/24/2008 - As the financial crisis unfolded and the Bush Administration offered its response, Shapiro argued that, while major action was needed, the Treasury's plan would be ineffective. 
  • Keep People in Their Homes by Simon Rosenberg and Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/23/2008 – At the beginning of the financial collapse, NDN offered this narrative-shaping essay and campaign on the economic need to stabilize the housing market.

Obama's Post-Partisan Plan Almost Where It Should Be

While the chorus of complaints about President Barack Obama’s spending and tax package was dispiritingly predictable, the post-partisan surprise is that its basic structure is evolving to just about where it should be. The legislative process is adding its normal quotient of special interest subsidies on both the spending and tax sides -- think of it as a “congressional tax,” because they really can’t help themselves. And compared to the last decade of limitless tolerance for the unregulated escapades of Wall Street financiers that’s now pushing many of the world’s economies over a cliff, the partisan outrage at this conventional if distasteful part of the legislative process seems pretty hollow.

The important matter here is that at its core, the package should do roughly what we want it to, given the gravity of current conditions and our equally serious, longer-term problems with wages and jobs. (There is one gaping exception: nothing serious yet to address the foreclosure and housing crisis). In effect, the Administration has cleverly packaged some broadly useful, longer-term economic and social initiatives with some traditional “stimulus,” and it’s selling it as the answer to the crisis. It provides some of that answer -- unfortunately, not all of it by a long shot -- but it also offers the Administration’s first responses to other legitimate matters on which President Obama happened to win his election.

First, there are at least $230 billion dollars in clear economic stimulus -- notably, some $65 billion for more food stamps and an extension of unemployment benefits and $30 billion in other assistance for low-income households, all of which will directly support consumption; and another $80 billion in large grants to states dealing with fast-falling revenues and balanced budget requirements, which will save jobs and so also support consumption. There also are about $50 billion out of a larger pot of infrastructure projects that can properly count as stimulus -- for schools, highways, transit, public hospitals, and so on – because they can get started fairly quickly and absorb idle resources (that’s mainly idle construction and machine workers, and equipment). Then there’s nearly $90 billion for state Medicaid programs. That’s not stimulus precisely, but it will relieve states from having to choose between cutting medical treatment for poor and elderly people or cutting other jobs and purchases to maintain those treatments. Given our circumstances, there are no sensible, post-partisan arguments against these provisions.

The second tranche of the package provides some $250 billion in tax cuts, most of it the first stage of the President’s promised tax relief for the now-famous “95 percent of Americans,” plus another year of relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax’s slide down the income scale. There’s no point calling this stimulus. The fix in the AMT is an annual ritual which would happen with or without the package. A small package of business tax cuts (maybe $20 billion) also will do little economic good or harm. And the same can be said of the personal tax cuts. The best guess of economists is that 75 to 80 percent of those tax cuts will be saved with no stimulus effect, since 60 percent of last spring’s rebates were saved and anxieties over falling incomes, job losses, or worse have all intensified since then. But they’re still worth doing as progressive, post-partisan down payments on using the tax code to respond to the sharp increases in inequality under our recent, unlamented conservative regime. It certainly would be better to adopt these kinds of changes as part of a broader reform of the tax code. But as tax changes go, they have the unusual virtue of actually helping most people.

Finally, there’s a third group of some $220 billion in new public investments -- in education, training, broadband, clean tech, environmental cleanups, modernizing the electricity grid, energy efficiency, health care IT and medical research, and, yes, more as well. The current Great Recession is brutal, and it’s getting worse; but one reason it’s so painful is that it followed an economic expansion in which, the income data tell us, most Americans barely held their own ground. These investments are close enough to a post-partisan agenda for raising the productivity of the overall economy as well as millions of workers, plus a small down-payment on addressing climate change. And the productivity pieces, at least, could begin to address the remarkable, recent stagnation in most people’s incomes. It will take much more than that to restore the strong wage and job gains we saw in the 1990s, notably serious cost containment in health care and a lot more energy efficiency than is in sight right now. But it’s a useful first step, and one for which NDN has long argued.

So it’s not just “stimulus,” but also the heart of the President’s first year agenda – and on balance, that’s a good thing. The missing piece remains what we have lamented for six months now (check NDN's Keep People in Their Homes page) – there’s still no new policy to stem the rising foreclosure rates driving the freeze in the capital markets, which in turn propelled the worst global downturn in 75 years. Without that, the stimulus and the new investments will have little lasting effect. So that remains the most important, unfinished business of the President's first 100 days.

Unpublished
n/a

Recovery.Gov

Bridging the gap between winning an election and governing with the help of the Internet and other new political tools has been one of the most interesting subtexts of the Obama transition. President Obama has of course made the weekly YouTube address a fixture of his administration, but in the past week, the Obama administration web team has taken their economic message online with new web sites: strongmiddleclass.gov, the website for the task force led by Vice President Biden on the middle class, and recovery.gov, a web site to be used for tracking the expenditures of the still-to-be-passed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

Here's what recovery.gov looks like now: 

recovery.gov

NDN has discussed the Wired White House quite a bit. Click here for more of NDN's work on the topic.

Monday Buzz: Chip's Other Song, Immigration Politics, More

It was a good week for NDN in the media. After NDN broke the story of Chip Saltsman's Other Song on Thursday, our post was featured in Politico and as the feature story on the front page of the The Huffinton Post. The story was also picked up by Kos over at DailyKos, and even made it into The New York Times's Sunday editorial.

Along the same lines, Simon was quoted in the Spanish-language paper Terra on immigration reform, and was the lone voice of reason in a Los Angeles Times op-ed by Ira Mehlman on the same topic. His recent essay about the Republican party and race, "Steele, the GOP and Confronting the Southern Strategy," was also featured on the front page of the Huffington Post. Finally, Simon was also quoted in AFP and Red Orbit about how President Obama will use his Web-based campaign organization moving forward. From the AFP piece, entitled "Obama Retools Campaign Machine":

Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a progressive think tank here, likened Organizing for America to former president Bill Clinton's attempt to build a grass roots pressure group on health care reform but agreed that "there really hasn't ever been anything like it before."
"Barack is not like any other candidate," he said. "He comes to Washington with more supporters and more modern tools than anyone in history. Barack is going to reinvent the presidency the way he reinvented the campaign."

Rob was quoted in the Los Angeles Times about cap-and-trave versus a carbon tax, and in the  International Herald-Tribune on the stimulus package. From the IHT piece:

Economist Rob Shapiro, a top Commerce Department official in the Clinton administration who was on Obama's transition advisory team, questioned the effectiveness of the $275 billion in tax cuts in the measure now before the House. "These tax cuts are not only not stimulative, but we're going to have to pay for them eventually."

Still, Shapiro, now an official with NDN, a think tank formerly known as the New Democratic Network, said it is more important not to let the debate over the stimulus package "degenerate into politics as usual. If the country believes this has turned into a package of special-interest spending and tax provisions, then the efforts to restore confidence will be damaged."

Finally, Morley and Mike had an op-ed published in Roll Call entitled "Obama Typifies Spirit of Civic Engagement." For those of you who don't subscribe to Roll Call, you can view an earlier version of this essay posted on the NDN blog here.

Amidst Having No Identity and No Agenda, the GOP Attacks Immigrants Again in Economic Stimulus Debate


This image was the headline on the Huffington Post website, until our post on "The Star Spanglish Banner" took its place for most of the day, and it goes very well with a piece in the Washington Post today by  Manuel Roig-Franzia.  As Republicans have a national meeting this week, they search for their misshapen identity.  In the meantime, since they have nothing else to propose and know nothing other than the exploitation of racial fear and hate, they decided to issue a statement claiming that the stimulus bill would help undocumented immigrants:

The $800 billion-plus economic stimulus measure making its way through Congress could steer government checks to illegal immigrants......The legislation, which would send tax credits of $500 per worker and $1,000 per couple, expressly disqualifies nonresident aliens, but it would allow people who do not have Social Security numbers to be eligible for the checks.

What this statement does not say, is that the stimulus steers checks to TAXPAYERS, it's not aimed at "illegal immigrants." In fact, the measure indicates that Social Security numbers are needed to claim tax credits of $500 per worker and $1,000 per couple. It also expressly disqualifies nonresident aliens.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid clarified, "This legislation is directed toward people who are legal in our country.  It is about time the Republicans got a different piece of reading material and get off this illegal immigrant stuff." said Sen. Reid, D-Nev. "This bill has nothing to do with anything illegal as far as immigration. It creates jobs for people who are lawfully in this country."  Not just U.S. citizens pay taxes - many legal immigrants under Temporary Protected Status or other programs file taxes, purchase homes, and get credit, so they would be eligible for a return.

Instead of trying to create a new "boogieman", the GOP should be thinking about how to be more inclusive - and inclusive does not mean having one member of one minority in a prominent position in your Party.  Some Members of Congress still - for reasons that I will probably never understand - think it is somehow out of line to repudiate racist/divisive attacks like Rush Limbaugh's.  At least Phil Gingrey took one step in the right direction by not shying away from repudiating some of the latest offensive attacks, namely by Limbaugh against our President:

"I think that our leadership, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, are taking the right approach," Gingrey said. "I mean, it's easy if you're Sean Hannity or Rush Limbaugh or even sometimes Newt Gingrich to stand back and throw bricks. You don't have to try to do what's best for your people and your party. You know you're just on these talk shows and you're living well and plus you stir up a bit of controversy and gin the base and that sort of that thing. But when it comes to true leadership, not that these people couldn't be or wouldn't be good leaders, they're not in that position..."


Lastly, and more importantly, aside from whatever Republicans do or don't do, this statement tying the immigration debate into the stimulus debate exemplifies a greater trend that Simon and NDN have predicted will occur with the entire domestic agenda until immigration reform is passed:

"That the debate.....has immediately become a debate about immigration should be a clear warning to the Administration and Congress that progress on many important domestic priorities this year may get caught up in the debate on how to best fix our broken immigration system. It is our belief that rather than having a series of tough and contentious proxy fights [with Republicans and with Democrats] on immigration, our leaders should recognize that passing comprehensive immigration reform this year will not only help fix our badly broken immigration system - a priority of many Americans - but may also be the key to unlocking bipartisan progress on a whole range of other domestic and security related issues." 

NDN Economic Backgrounder: Stimulus, the Next Expansion, and Clean Infrastructure

With negotiations on President Obama's economic recovery and reinvestment plan underway, we present much of NDN's key work on the economy, creating a stimulus for the long run, keeping people in their homes, and clean infrastructure:

  • Politics and the Economic Crisis by Dr. Robert Shapiro, 1/9/2009 - Shapiro argues that, for an economic recovery plan to be effective, we must also address the underlying causes of the "Great Recession," including the housing crisis.
  • Getting the Stimulus Right by Michael Moynihan, 1/6/2009 - Moynihan makes a number of suggestions for ensuring that the upcoming, record-size stimulus package is a success, including a board to oversee the vast expenditures.
  • The Global Economic Crisis and Future Ambassadorial Appointments by Simon Rosenberg, 11/26/2008 - With the mammoth task of rebuilding international financial architecture and recovering from a global recession awaiting the new President, Rosenberg points out the the ambassadors to the G20 nations will be key members of the economic team.
  • A Stimulus for the Long Run by Simon Rosenberg and Dr. Robert Shapiro, 11/14/2008 – This important essay lays out the now widely agreed-upon argument that the upcoming economic stimulus package must include investments in the basic elements of growth for the next decade, including elements that create a low-carbon, energy-efficient economy.
  • Back to Basics: The Treasury Plan Won't Work by Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/24/2008 - As the financial crisis unfolded and the Bush Administration offered its response, Shapiro argued that, while major action was needed, the Treasury's plan would be ineffective.
  • Keep People in Their Homes by Simon Rosenberg and Dr. Robert Shapiro, 9/23/2008 – At the beginning of the financial collapse, NDN offered this narrative-shaping essay and campaign on the economic need to stabilize the housing market.
  • Solar Energy: The Case for Action by Michael Moynihan, 8/1/2008 – This major paper on the dynamic solar industry argues that accelerating the deployment of solar energy must become a top economic policy priority of the United States.
  • Trading in the Trading Down Economy by Michael Moynihan, 7/11/2008 - As economic activity trended downward, Moynihan argued for an economic vision that both moved America beyond the recession and positioned the country for long term prosperity.
  • A Laptop in Every Backpack by Simon Rosenberg and Alec Ross, 5/1/2007 – Rosenberg and the One Economy Corporation’s Ross offer a modest proposal for putting a laptop in the backpack of every American sixth grader, as connectivity to and facility with the global communications network are essential for success in the 21st century.
  • Video: SEIU President Andy Stern speaks to NDN about the New Landscape of Globalization, 6/20/2007

For more of NDN's 21st century economic strategy for America, please visit our Globalization Initiative page.

Hispanics and Immigration Reform Must be Part of the Economic Agenda

Reports from the Pew Hispanic Center and others, released at the end of 2008, show disturbing data on the impact of the economic crisis on minorities, and I hope Tim Geithner is up to speed on this information and keeps minorities in mind as he helps map the course for economic recovery.  We hope Geithner's confirmation hearings over the next few days will pass to a speedy confirmation so that he can get to the business of governing "for all Americans," along with President Obama.

Data show that minority workers have fewer employment opportunities, lower wages, or both as compared to their white counterparts. As a result, they tend to have lower incomes and slower income growth.  And because minorities are less well suited than white families to save and build an economic cushion, hard economic times place them in tougher conditions sooner than is the case for white families.

Hispanics are currently suffering a percent of unemployment much higher than that of their white counterparts, 9.2% in January, up from 8.9% unemployment in December 2008.  In addition, the unemployment rate for Hispanics rose faster than for any other group, increasing by 3.1% from December of 2007-December of 2008, while the unemployment rate for whites rose by 2.1% and for blacks, 2.9%.

Even during a period of employment gains enjoyed by Hispanics from 2001-2007, poverty increased among Hispanics over the same period, which only highlights the low wages at which Hispanics tend to work. In 2007, 8.2 percent of whites lived below the poverty line, up from 5.4 percent in 2000, but well below the 21.5 percent of Hispanics who lived below the poverty line in 2007.

Lastly, personal and family income has steadily declined for Hispanics.  From 2001-2007, family incomes for whites were about 30 percent greater than for Hispanics and that gap has increased over time.  Hispanics' median family income declined by an average of 0.5 percent per year from 2000, the last full year before the last recession started, to 2007, the last year for which data are available, falling to $38,679 from $39,935, or by a total of $1,256 (in 2007 dollars). In comparison, whites' median family income fell at a much lower rate of just 0.003 percent per year, for a total decline of $12 between 2000 and 2007, to $54,920 from $54,932 (in 2007 dollars).

Large disparities in health insurance coverage also persist.  In 2007, 32.1% of Hispanics lacked health insurance coverage, compared to 10.4% of whites.

Additionally, Hispanic home ownership rate was only 49.7% for Hispanics in 2007, compared to 75.2% for whites.  While the annual average increase of homeownership was greater among Hispanics, many were also victims of bad-actor lending companies and they ended up purchasing high-cost mortgages, as opposed to market rate mortgages.  Nearly 29% of home purchase loans made to Hispanics in 2007 were high cost, as opposed to only 11% for whites.

We encourage Secretary Geithner and President Obama to show courage and leadership in developing an economic stimulus and economic recovery that addresses these discrepancies and includes financial literacy for minorities.  In addition, we encourage President Obama to take the lead on fixing our broken immigration system in order to help stem this economic crisis.  As long as the trap door of undocumented immigration remains, we will not be able to achieve economic recovery.  It is vital that Congress and the Administration realize that as long as we continue the race to the bottom fostered by our broken immigration system, we will not achieve economic recovery.

Syndicate content