What World Does the Republican Party Live In? (con.) - David Frum, former George W. Bush Speechwriter, was on NPR this morning discussing how the GOP lost its way in 2008 because it misread its challenge as a "moderate-conservative" one, missing the fact that it is actually a "backward-forward" one. On that, we are agreed - the GOP agenda completely collapsed in 2004/2005 and the GOP has refused to develop a new agenda that embraces the 21st century reality of the U.S.
But Mr. Frum contradicted himself during the interview: he alleged that minorities are an important part of the advantage held by Democrats, but that Republicans can essentially give up on the Hispanic vote and still win - his contention is that the group the GOP needs to win back in order to win are college graduates and that, basically, the GOP can do just fine without Latinos because we're all poor and populist: "As populist economically as we need to be to win over this poor group of voters...you'll blow the whole coalition to pieces...because are you going to be the universal state free at the point of consumption health care?" In fact, winning Hispanics is an integral part of moving "forward" and embracing the facts of a 21st century America. Mr. Frum also demonstrates his ignorance of the Hispanic community by continuing the erroneous stereotype promoted by hate groups and Lou Dobbs types that Latinos are all uneducated, poor, a burden to our society, and dependent on big government. In reality Hispanics are the demographic that uses the least amount of government programs (even though many are in fact in the middle or lowest income brackets), with the highest rate of employment, and in many areas they account for economic and labor growth as they are often small business owners. Also, historically Hispanics split pretty evenly between parties and they have never constituted a loyal "base" for either party. Not to mention, "Hispanic" concerns are the same as those of the general population, with some nuances.
Frum's contention is yet another example of the GOP's stubborn denial of the racial reality of the country. Only a few GOP strategists like Rove and Sen. Martinez have attempted to make their party realize that the United States will be a majority "minority" country by 2042, and that support among Hispanics is key to its survival. If the GOP intends to exist for the next generation, they had better accept - and embrace the new electoral map. Hispanics have consistently demonstrated their increasing political clout, particularly in this election, when they turned out in record numbers and affected elections in battleground states like Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, etc. Additionally, Hispanics displayed the power in their numbers in non-traditionally "Latino" states because this demographic helped realign this election - i.e., Hispanics helped flip GOP "safe" or deep red states to blue, as was the case in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.
Frum's theory is a tough sell - exit polls show that the election was the closest among high school graduates and college drop-outs, while the higher the degree obtained, the more supportive voters were of Obama (53% of college graduates supported Obama, and the number goes up to 58% among those with postgraduate degrees). Frum fails to recognize that race relations and the way Obama reflects and embraces the current U.S. demography was just as important in winning over the intellectual "elite." Millenials and the more educated are increasingly intolerant of intolerance. Additionally, Hispanics are a part of all income and education groups. It should also be noted that voters with higher degrees comprise a smaller percentage of the electorate (only 17% of the electorate has PhDs). Within a few generations (max) the share of Hispanic voters will easily match the 28% of people with a college education who voted in this election.
Another flaw in Frum's argument is that the importance of college grads implies the importance of young adults: 2/3 (or 67%) of all Hispanics who voted in this election are under the age of 45 - he should think about what that means for the future. Every month, 50,000 Latinos turn 18. Twenty percent of millenials have at least one immigrant parent. The irrefutable fact is that Hispanics - the fastest growing demographic in the United States - will only play an increasingly pivotal role in national politics in the 21st century.
The fact is that the GOP built an entire domestic agenda based on the exploitation of fear, racial and otherwise: whether it was Willie Horton, "welfare queens," "tax and spend liberals," and most recently the issue of illegal- immigration. And GOP leaders are still refusing to accept this fact - as recently as two days ago Mike Huckabee spent a half hour trying to explain his intolerance of certain gay rights to Jon Stewart; mind you, the Daily Show audience is precisely Mr. Krum's "target": college educated, about 18-35 years old. Republicans like Mr. Frum have to first recognize what has been their tactic in the past and second, think about what they want their future to look like. If it wants to stay in business, the GOP has to build a Party and coalition suited to the demographic realities of 21st century America.