- First off, our thoughts and prayers are with the family of Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, a woman and public servant for whom we all had an immense amount of respect. She'll certainly be missed in this office.
- Want to be that friend? Wonkette shows you how to send fake texts announcing U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's VP.(Update: I've heard about a few of these today, so when the real text happens I'll most likely doubt it.)
- Perhaps as a result of their own experiences, the Obama campaign and the DNC are making a joint effort to make changes to the primary process.
- Also check out this video of Obama using the 40th Anniversary of the Prague Spring to talk about Russia and Georgia.
- How many homes does U.S. Sen. John McCain own? He doesn't even know.
- Lynn Sweet says that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's IL delegates were given the treatment during a meeting at Obama headquarters.
- OH, MI and PA voters will be getting an AFL-CIO mailer that goes after John McCain on trade with China. Meanwhile in the FT, Jagdish Bhagwati suggests a total rethink on trade.
- Meanwhile in Dunmore, PA, Hillary Clinton's Brother, Tony Rodham, met with Carly Fiorina, a top surrogate of the McCain campaign. (Via Jake Tapper.)
- Lynn Sweet reveals McCain's hopes of putting a dent in Obama's Jewish support.
- The timing of Obama's choice has its ups and downs, says Cillizza. Yet according to the Political Wire, many other past nominees have made "late" announcements.
- Hang on. John McCain actually said that in order to capture Osama bin Laden, we need to enact the draft? Ambinder says not so fast.
- David Leonhardt has a huge piece coming out in Sunday's New York Times Magazine on How Obama reconciles dueling views on the economy. Along similar lines, today's New York Times features a story on Obama's shifting message, which focuses on everyday concerns like the economy.
- The Trail notes that, unlike the DNC, the RNC is not filing McCain's victory fund reports monthly.
- David Gergen says that Obama is in need of a game changer. What about an Obama-Caroline Kennedy ticket, a suggestion from Michael Moore?
- In a letter to McCain, ConservativeHQ.com chairman Richard Vigurie expresses concern over VP speculation. Not surprisingly, Laura Ingraham expresses similar concern.
- In the Gulf Times, Jeffrey Sachs writes on how the internet and mobile phones are ending poverty by closing the isolation gap.
- Check out Howard Wolfson's new blog, Gotham Acme.
- And last, but certainly not least in my opinion, Ben's Chili Bowl will be celebrating its 50th anniversary this week. The festivities kick off tonight with the Ali family set to host a free gala featuring celebrities like Roberta Flack and Bill Cosby, who is the only person who receives free food at Ben's. (Thanks to our own Ben Cahen for sending this along!)
Economy dominates. Obama leads 45-42. McCain's party still not so sure about him. Read more here.
Obama's three-point lead is consistent with the two major daily tracks, Gallup and Rasmussen.
We go into the Conventions with the race very close. See here for more on our thoughts on Obama, the economy and the struggle of everday people, and here for some thoughts on the Obama TV strategy. It is going to be a quite a race, my friends.
Update: WSJ/NBC News also has a three-point spread, with the very same numbers, 45-42.
The key to waging a successful presidential campaign by either Barack Obama or John McCain will be their ability to use their respective conventions to overcome generational tensions. What happens in Denver and the Twin Cities could give the nominees freedom to embrace the generational changes that will shape American politics for decades to come.
If the candidates pay proper attention to generational politics, each convention will begin with a nod to their party's Boomers and then pivot away from the past to address, on the final night, new voters whose support they will need to win in November.
The candidates must take the lead in managing their party's convention so that the ticket and its platform reflect the desire of the electorate to move beyond the cultural wars of the 1960s. Each party's understanding of this generationally driven challenge will be evident in how it handles the iconic, Boomer figures demanding center stage at their conventions.
Obama, in an acknowledgement of the generational strains in his party, has agreed to Hillary Rodham Clinton's request to not only address the convention in prime time on Tuesday night, but to have her name placed in nomination the following night. In return, he has gained the agreement of former president Bill Clinton to, in effect, lead the Boomers in the Democratic Party to embrace and endorse Senator Obama's nomination on Wednesday night.
As tough as that challenge has been for Obama, the problem is more acute for John McCain. President Bush's job performance ratings are among the lowest of any president. But he remains popular with Boomer ideologues in the GOP, who are continually looking for signs that McCain has stayed from party orthodoxy. Any attempt to deny a sitting president the spotlight at their national convention, as Democrats did in keeping Lyndon Johnson from addressing their 1968 convention, will be met with cries of "I told you not to trust him" from Republican true believers.
It appears that McCain's advisers have decided to throw cultural war red meat to the delegates with appearances by Bush and Vice President Cheney on Monday, in hopes that the electorate won't pay too much attention until later in the week.
If history is any guide, the place where both candidates will be willing to make concessions to their party's ideological base will be the party's platform. Since this policy statement is debated early in the convention, with little penalty for abandoning a plank or two later in the campaign, platforms are the easiest way to throw a bone to ideological purists. The Generation X and Boomer Democratic blogosphere has previously attacked Obama for failing to adhere to hard left positions on post 9-11 issues and offshore oil drilling.
Similarly, a number of conservatives have condemned McCain's former positions on climate change, immigration, and campaign finance reform.
The choice each candidate must make is whether to use the platform debate to give the cultural warriors in their party a final opportunity to replay the political drama of the nation's Boomer past or to use the platform debate as a "Sister Souljah" generational moment and decisively break with that kind of divisive politics.
Senator McCain's campaign has already announced a "hands off" approach to his own party's platform, making it clear he doesn't intend to abide by all of its provisions--or fight over them. Senator Obama has taken a more inclusive approach to the platform, seeking to find ways to blend different opinions among party activists into one document everyone can agree on--a classic Millennial approach to resolving a problem.
In the end, however, there will be no better place for the two candidates to demonstrate their break with the politics of past generations than in their acceptance speeches.
The McCain campaign has signaled its intention to use their candidate's story of personal sacrifice on behalf of the nation throughout the convention. This effort will likely culminate in an acceptance speech attempting to simultaneously distinguish his life's experience from those of the Woodstock generation ("I was tied up at the time") and arouse the passions of his party's Boomer base.
The challenge, however, is how to do that that without awakening a set of related thoughts among Millennials about just how old and potentially out of touch with their generation he is. Millennials weren't around for Woodstock, don't care about it, and prefer that everyone "play nice" together. Passion displayed as anger turns them off. To capture a new and winning coalition in this campaign, McCain would be better off using his acceptance speech to underline his national security credentials based on a lifetime of service, both of which appeal greatly to Millennials.
Obama's decision to deliver his acceptance speech before a large outdoor audience on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech comes with its own set of risks. Echoes of that remarkable speech are sure to arouse the passions of the liberal half of the Boomer generation. But, it will also remind viewers of the turmoil of the 60s that drove a majority of the nation to embrace the Republicans' appeal for "law and order."
Obama's rhetoric will need to inspire a new generation to take the next steps toward achievement of King's dream, without creating a backlash among the rest of the electorate that wasn't enamored with the racial overtones of the Democratic primary campaign.
To succeed in November, both candidates will have to speak explicitly to the future and demonstrate that their campaign represents the hopes of a new generation. The country is waiting for a new leader with a new approach to guide it out of the Boomer briar patch in which it has been stuck since 1968. After the conventions, we will have a clearer idea who can best lead the country into a new era of American politics.
Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais are co-authors of "Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics" published by Rutgers University Press.
- VP Update:Ambinder warns not to read too much into an event in Indianapolis on Saturday.
- Obama Ad Update: U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is going on the attack through ads his campaign is airing in key states. Read more about the ads - and see one - in Jim Rutenberg's piece in the New York Times. For more, Michael Tomasky comments on the ad and Obama's strategy on his blog.
- McCain Ad Update: In the last 24 hours, U.S. Sen. John McCain's YouTube account added two new radio ads. Check out "Recipe", a Spanish-language spot running in CO, NM, and NV and "Millions".
- PowerPAC, described as a national, non-profit organization aimed at increasing civic participation among young people and people of color, is also up in NM with an English- and Spanish-language version of its pro-Obama ad, "What Matters".
- If you're wondering which candidate loyal Wal-Mart or Target shoppers prefer, AdAge has the answer.
- A head's up: Don't be surprised to see plenty of advertising for Oliver Stone's upcoming movie, W. while walking around Denver.
- Reggie Love, Barack Obama's body man, is the focus of a nice profile video over at ESPN 360. (Thanks, Dave, for the tip.)
- Before diving into VP speculation, check out this Atlantic piece from Ron Brownstein on partisanship and which candidate has a better chance of governing in a bipartisan fashion.
- Analysts have been discussing what the VP candidates will be getting themselves into by showing possible areas where there presence could have a major impact. David Gergen, Josh Marshall and Robert Reich threw their opinions into the hat and they are definitely worth a read.
- Rush Limbaugh didn't take lightly the news that John McCain was potentially gathering opinions on a pro-choice VP pick. All this while Ridge downplayed the impact his pro-choice position would have on a McCain presidency even though it appears as if McCain will be in Ohio with another possible pick the day he is expected to announce.
- I understand the irony in saying this, but I agree with Jake and Avery.
- Meanwhile, former Gov. Mitt Romney is speaking at a counter-rally organized by the GOP in Denver and U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman is being vetted.
- CBS News says that Obama's decision will be made public on Friday.
- Jake Tapper notices Obama used the pronoun "he" in the context of disucssing his VP. Tapper is quick to point out that this might be looking way too into it, but notes it as unusual.
- Though he said he's not the guy, speculation over U.S. Sen. Joe Biden was rampant. Over
at 538, Nate Silver goes with speculation and analyzes Biden's impact through past polling.
- Matthew Yglesias weighs in and points out what he sees as an issue heading into the general: Biden's "MBNA Factor".
- Noting that it doesn't mean Obama will announce that day, Chris Cillizza discusses Obama's scheduled event in Springfield on Saturday.
- Bloomberg dove into vetting process by taking an unusually close look at Evan Bayh's wife, whose past participation on several corporate boards is used against in the case against Bayh.
- Continuing the inside analysis of each campaign, Marc Ambinder offers another socratic dialogue, this time about the current state of the McCain campaign.
- The DNC is jumping all over McCain's comment that rich is having $5 million in income.
- Check out the tools the Obama campaign is sending its volunteers who are hosting watch parties around Convention.
- Assessing the current climate, Gallup reveals where the polls are. The LA Times offers its own insight with its new poll, which Daily Kos contributor DemFromCT reported on as well.
- Check out this YouTube clip of Obama striking back at McCain during his speech to the VFW. Obama's remarks drew this response from the McCain campaign's blog, the McCain Report.
- Haim Saban, one of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's top fundraisers, puts to rest any possible wavering and restates his support for Obama.
- With the economy is at the forefront of the campaigns - or at least it should be - it is worth noting MIT's Technology Review profile of Austan Goolsbee, which emphasizes, above all else, health care. An interesting section from the piece:
Where might future jobs come from, though? "There's a joke within economics that 40 years from now every economist will be a health-care economist, because if you simply extrapolate from the current trend, the whole economy will be health care." While we currently think of health care as a cost of business, Goolsbee continues, he can imagine it becoming a central driver of the economy. "Firstly, these are great engines of growth. Secondly, they make us healthy--and what's better than that? Spending on medical research and science, by any crass economic calculation, has a massive payoff, because if you put any value on life--for instance, if you've medicine that keeps people alive for an extra two years--the implicit value of that is great. I could easily see some emerging combination of medical science, biotechnology, and computing as the foundation of much of our economic growth going forward."
- Speaking of health care, Ezra Klein notes the return of Harry and Louise. Meanwhile on the trail, Obama touts a single-payer system. (Remember that the single-payer issue was a point of contention in the primaries between Obama and Hillary Clinton.)
- Finally, check out the latest video in Robert Greenwald and Brave New Films' "REAL McCain" series, "McCain's Mansions":
- Michael Tomasky looks at the difference between the attacks from the GOP (attacks on character) versus those from Democrats (attacks on policy/record). More from Jake Tapper's Political Punch here and here.
- In today's Wall Street Journal, Amy Schatz writes on Google's involvement in the "Big Tent" at the DNCC. She cites Simon on the impact this will have on convention coverage and, more importantly, the likelihood of private discussion for elected officials.
- Check out the statements of both U.S. Sen. John McCain and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama on Musharraf's resignation.
- Simon covers Greg Sargent's piece in TPM on McCain outspending Obama in key states below, but it is definitely worth mentioning again.
- According to the New York Times, Obama is ready to announce his pick for Vice President. Hint: Tom Daschle doesn't think it'll be him.
- Phew, at least we know when McCain will announce his choice for Vice President.
- Via Jake Tapper, Rich Lowry at the National Review tells us that the McCain campaign is seeking out key GOP state officials for their response to what could be a pro-choice VP.
- As we look ahead to Convention in Denver, check out this op-ed from U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar from the LA Times on "How Democrats can mine the West".
- Marc Ambinder has a playful, but very interesting way of presenting the different feelings he suspects Democrats have about the current state of the Obama campaign.
- Other news: PA Gov. Ed Rendell will be casting his vote during the roll-call for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in Denver. In VA, NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg is being placed on the presidential ballot by the commonwealth's Independent Green Party.
- Ralph Reed, a long-time friend and associate of Jack Abramoff, was a no-show at McCain's fundraiser last night. The Political Wire wonders who's telling the truth.
- Taking a break from VP speculation, the American Prospect'sDana Goldstein and Ezra Klein show how Obama is more focused on beefing up the Democratic Party than any other candidate in recent history.
- Building on that, the Washington Post's Tim Craig looks at Obama's voter registration efforts in Virginia.
- Hopefully Obama continues to do things like calling to thank his 2 millionth donor along the way. The little things resonate.
- Along those lines, the New York Times takes a look at how the Democrats are presenting their case across the ticket, particularly in Congressional races.
- The LA Times looks at the dual roles of Randy Scheunemann, a top foreign policy advisor to John McCain and former lobbyist for Georgia. Via Think Progress, McCain is proud of supporting Scheunemann's lobbying efforts.
- The McCain campaign clarified itself on two issues we've discussed in these updates: McCain's alleged plagiarism of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, and Andrea Mitchell's reporting on whether McCain knew Rick Warren's questions before his turn at the Saddleback Forum.
- Speaker Pelosi emphasized the role of women in changing the country in a video encouraging women in Michigan to vote for Obama.
Greg Sargent from TPM Election Central has a new post up on the adspend disparities this summer, and where each campaign is buying.
The analysis raises some interesting questions. 1) Do Democrats need to reevaluate their assumption that they will hold a significant fundraising advantage in the fall? 2) Can the Obama campaign afford to stay on the air in unconventional battlegrounds like Alaska and Indiana while the larger more traditional battlegrounds tighten up?
While a great deal has been written about the lessening impact of TV, I think the McCain campaign is demonstrating its lingering power and influence. What is the McCain campaign other than a series of TV ads and videos (that then get played again and again on TV)? Their candidate has receded. They have been speaking through a much more reliable set of messages - edited video, which unlike their candidate, doesn't have that nasty habit of getting way off message. And it has worked - the race has tightened now, and we appear headed into the two Conventions pretty close to tied.
As we look forward to the VP picks of both parties I get the sense that given the way the McCain campaign is being run now, they will attempt to pick a new spokesman for their campaign - someone good looking, telegenic, articulate. Their current spokesman, McCain, has, let us say, lots of limitations. So let him be that vague presence at the end of the ads, show up for the debates and Convention heavily scripted, and let the new guy do a great deal of the heavy lifting.
- In case you missed the Saddleback Forum, TheAtlantic's Andrew Sullivan covered it live on his blog.
- On the ad front, PrezVid previews two of U.S. Sen. John McCain's new ads, "Taxman" and "Maybe". Ambinder puts up an ad U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is running on the economy in Colorado.
- CQ wonders whether McCain is once again plagiarizing.
- In the Politico, Ben Smith and Glenn Thrush suspect Obama will announce his Vice Presidential pick this week. Their colleague, Jonathan Martin, keeps speculation in a whirlwind by highlighting U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar's positive feelings for Obama.
- Over at The Atlantic, Marc Ambinder looks at the candidates' schedules and offers his thoughts on the VP selection.
- Bloomberg's Lorraine Woellert points out a flaw in McCain's pitch for nuclear power by looking at the recent nuclear submarine leaks.
- Obama returned to San Francisco to haul in a cool $7.8 million. Jake Tapper has more on the event where Obama showed he was not afraid to go on the offensive.
- On the fundraising front, Seth Colter Walls writes more on what the candidates and party committees raised in July, noting that the DNC outraised the RNC for the first time since October of 2004.
- More trouble in McCainland: LA Gov. Bobby Jindal's had trouble pointing out the "big ideas" being proposed by McCain on Meet the Press. (via Think Progress) Maybe he should've pointed out that McCain wants everyone to have a mansion or be 5-million-dollars rich.
- The New York Times points out that party leaders are also asking Obama to highlight specific policy proposals, giving some substance to his campaign narratives of hope and change.
- McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, will be meeting with NBC to protest Andrea Mitchell's statement about McCain's alleged knowledge of the questions being presented at the Saddleback Forum.
- The countdown to the Democratic National Convention is nearing its end. Wilshire and Washington gives some clues about what each candidate will be doing next week. Continuing the convention theme, Matthew Yglesias posts on the Convention bump.
- U.S. Sen. John McCain finally explained his appreciation for ABBA.
- Always finding ways to keep it light, The Onion has a piece on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's half-brother who hopes to become Obama's Secretary of Moonshine.
- Anticipating the announcement of Vice Presidential choices, Chris Cillizza looks at the possibilities and weighs in at The Fix. Cillizza also gives a nod to the Obama campaign's agreement to allow U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's name to be put forth for nomination in Denver.
- Over at AdAge, Evan Tracey uses the latest ad strategies of the campaigns to show that negative advertising could dominate the airwaves over the next 100 days.
- The Atlantic is really writing some interesting stuff. Two pieces from them recently of note are Joshua Green's musing on whether Mark Penn could/would find his way into Obama's campaign, and James Fallows' in-depth piece on what the primary debates showed and what we should expect as we look to the Presidential debates.
- Jake Tapper discusses a recent ad from the Matthew 25 Network that touts Obama's support of families and seems to take aim at McCain's past. The Matthew 25 Network might be hoping that the ad will derail some of the progress McCan has seen in getting the Republican base behind him.
- Wondering who from Hollywood is headed to Denver? Check out Wilshire & Washington for a list of folks planning on attending Starz's Green Room events.
- Matthew Yglesias takes on the RNC for mocking Barack Obama's tendency to take his shirt off at the beach.
- Finally, the obvious statement of the day goes to the McCain Report Blog. Not that McCain shouldn't be allowed on the beach, but the campaign needs to do as little as possible to highlight McCain's age even more. Heck, even T. Boone Pickens joked about McCain's age.
Keith Johnson, of the Wall Street Journal’s Environmental Capital blog, has a solid summary of where the media narrative on drilling sits: Republicans are winning the battle. This narrative is backed by a new Rasmussen poll that has 64 percent of Americans supporting offshore drilling, and 42 percent seeing it as the "best way to reduce oil prices." Rasmussen also tells us that Americans believe McCain wants to find more sources of energy, while they believe that Obama cares more for limiting energy use. Unsurprisingly then, Americans two-thirds of Americans side with McCain’s approach.
The New Republic’seditors make some interesting but debatable points today about how the narrative has gotten to this point, arguing that blaming speculators and going after oil companies may not have been the best plan of attack. TNR also argues that the Obama and Pelosi shift toward allowing more offshore drilling in a compromise bill that would also include support for renewables and efficiency was the second losing move in this argument, and that Democrats’ inability to debunk the drilling idea in the minds of voters was troubling.
As I argued yesterday, the shift on drilling will not be a big deal, and will likely remove drilling as a wedge issue into the fall. The more important voter perception is that Americans believe that Obama cares about energy austerity while McCain wants to do everything he can to increase production. (His actions don’t bear this out, but perception is what matters.)
Whether drilling specifically will be a voting issue is unknown, and this is likely a case where Republicans are winning the battle on drilling but setting themselves up to lose the war on energy as a whole. However, being portrayed as promoting austere energy use is extremely dangerous for Democrats. Obama has already begun to recast the debate on energy about investing in a clean energy economy, which is forward looking, as opposed to the McCain Republican petro-economy of the past, one that, as Michael Moynihan notes, continues to have dangerous ramifications in foreign policy.
At the end of the day, the most important argument to make and win is that energy policy is central to the economy: energy to power the economy, energy impacting American households and families through gas, home heating, and overall prices, and energy jobs and investment allowing average Americans to enjoy the broad-based prosperity they knew in the 1990’s, but that disappeared in the Bush administration. Transitioning to a clean energy economy will not be simple or easy, but, done responsibly, it is a key to future prosperity. Americans already feel austerity in their pocketbooks; being perceived as asking them to feel it in their energy use is not in Democrats' interests, especially when the better option of investing in a clean energy economy exists.
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