Barack Obama

The last couple weeks have seen copious coverage of John McCain's inconsistency on energy policy. These discrepancies have been noted with some curiousity, but with a series of ads on energy security, McCain is clearly attempting to assume the energy security mantle in this campaign, and perhaps it is worth taking greater notice of them. After all, climate change is his signature "maverick" issue - the main issue that he claims not to follow President Bush on.

The problem is that his biggest maverick endorsers - those that he can use to paint himself as bipartisan (or as putting "Country First," his new slogan) - don't really agree with him on his maverick issue. Arnold Schwarzenegger, one of the most progressive executives in the country on energy issues and a McCain endorser, criticized McCain's offshore drilling plan as "blowing smoke." From the Los Angeles Times:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger made a veiled swipe at Republican presidential hopeful John McCain on Thursday when he said at a climate conference here that anyone suggesting offshore oil drilling could bring down gas prices was "blowing smoke."

The remark was also a dig at his host, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who riled environmentalists, tourism promoters and the state's political leaders on both sides of the aisle last week when he voiced support for McCain's proposal to lift bans on exploring for oil off the coasts of California, Florida and the Eastern Seaboard.
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From his podium at the conference, Schwarzenegger said, "Politicians have been throwing around all kinds of ideas in response to the skyrocketing energy prices, from the rethinking of nuclear power to pushing biofuels and more renewables and ending the ban on offshore drilling," Schwarzenegger said. "But anyone who tells you this would bring down gas prices any time soon is blowing smoke."

Another issue McCain faces is that Joe Lieberman, sponsor of the leading climate change legislation in the Senate this year, supports McCain, but John McCain's climate change goals are far more modest than Lieberman's legislation. In fact, McCain skipped the Senate vote on the issue, and indicated that he did not support the legislation.

So, if McCain is a maverick on energy, why don't his two signature maverick endorsers - both leaders on his signature maverick issue - agree with him on fundamental aspects of that very issue?

La Asociación Nacional de Funcionarios Hispanos Electos (NALEO por su sigla en inglés) está en éste momento llevando a cabo su Conferencia Anual tal como lo ha hecho por los últimos veinticinco años. Éste año la Conferencia se celebra en Washington D.C , en el Hotel Renaissance ubicado en 999 9th St, NW.

La Conferencia, que tiene una duración de tres días, y comenzó ayer Jueves 26 de junio, atrae a Funcionarios Hispanos en los niveles tanto locales como estatales de todas partes del país. Entre invitados destacados que subieron al podio ayer para dirigirse a la audiencia estaban la Senadora Clinton, la Presidenta de la Cámara de Diputados Nancy Pelosi, y el líder del Senado, Senador Demócrata de Nevada Harry Reid.

Algunos de los temas centrales de ésta conferencia fueron la importancia del voto latino en las elecciones presidenciales del 2008; el Censo del 2010 (los beneficios del Censo para la comunidad latina y los obstáculos que se anticipan), el impacto de la crisis económica para las familias latinas (particularmente para los latinos que son propietarios de sus viviendas) ; el acceso a la educación para los latinos; raza, género y política y la campaña Ya Es Hora, entre otros temas.

La Conferencia culminará mañana Sábado, día en que ambos candidatos para la presidencia de la nación, los Senadores McCain y Obama darán sus discursos a las 11 AM y 12 PM, respectivamente.

El ambiente en la Conferencia ha estado lleno de energía y de muchas preguntas, reflejando la inquietud de la comunidad latina frente al futuro que nos espera. Así como lo ha dicho NDN muchas veces, los latinos somos la minoría más grande y que ha demostrado más rápido crecimiento demográfico en éste país. Ésta es una idea central de la Conferencia de NALEO: que los latinos tenemos el poder de elegir al próximo Presidente de los Estados Unidos, convirtiendo al año 2008 en el año del voto latino.

- As this is being posted, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are appearing together in Unity, NH. Quoting Obama: "She rocks".

- In The Fix, Chris Cillizza looks at the presidential politics of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn DC's ban on handguns. On the same subject, PrezVid offers a video of Obama expressing his belief that the Second Amendment is an individual right. For more of the legal aspects, keep checking SCOTUSblog.

- Will there be a new debate format this Fall? According to the WSJ's Washington Wire, the Commission on Presidential Debates is hoping so.

- The Obama campaign continues to push the PowerPoint that Campaign Manager David Plouffe went over in DC this week, showing the strength of the campaign as well as highlighting fundraising realities among the candidates and party committees. All this comes as two more states shift to Obama.

- Michael Bush has an article worth reading in AdAge entitled "The Web Is Where It's At for Youth Vote". Here's a provacative quote:

"The good news for Democrats is that they [have proved they] can connect with voters, and the good news for Republicans is that this isn't about party or candidate; it's about the tool," Mr. Irving said. "So the candidate who is good at using these tools will have better success at reaching these voters. These voters are going [online] to find information because they can shape the message they receive and that's the watershed."

- As I wrote this morning, both U.S. Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama will be addressing the 25th Annual NALEO Conference tomorrow.

- John McCain has a new ad, "Purpose". Check it out below:

Tomorrow in Washington, DC, U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain will address the 25th Annual National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Conference. Their presence at the conference alone verifies that the Latino community is truly an emerging power in American politics, both in terms of size and impact. But be mindful of the tone and tenor of each candidate's speeches considering these facts from our recent report, Hispanics Rising II:

• At 15% of the US population today, Hispanics are now America’s largest “minority” group, and are projected to be 29% of all those living in the United States by 2050.
• Hispanics have become one of the most volatile and contested swing voting blocks in American politics. Realizing this helped deliver George W. Bush to the White House.
• In 2005, the immigration debate introduced a new dynamic in this electorate. The GOP rejected Bush's "Nos Conocemos" approach to Hispanics and adopted a much more anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic approach. This approach was instrumental in fueling the massive immigration rallies in the spring of 2006, and swinging Hispanics significantly to the Democrats and increasing their turnout in the 2006 elections.
• Initial data from 2008 shows that Hispanics have tripled their turnout from the 2004 primaries and increased their share of the vote in the Democratic primaries by 66%. Seventy-eight percent of Hispanics who voted in the presidential primaries this year have voted Democratic.

These facts present a bleak outlook for Sen. McCain in particular, who will address NALEO at 11 a.m., immediately before Sen. Obama's address at the Renaissance Marriott Hotel. For more background, check out these recent columns from Carla Marinucci, Andres Oppenheimer, Gebe Martinez, Peter Wallsten, Sam Stein, Bill Lambrecht, and Tyche Kendricks.

First Newsweek showed Obama up 51-36. Now LATimes/Bloomberg has it 48-33. The two daily tracks Rasmussen and Gallup still have it 4-6 points. So where are we?

I believe deeply that the race for President wants to be a 10 point Obama victory. The underlining structure of the 2008 campaign has Democrats with 10 plus point advantages in all the major measures - party ID, congressional and presidential generic ballot test. In 2006, the national vote for Congress broke about 53-46, and Tom Davis, the savvy GOP Congressman, says the environment is much worse this year. Democrats are showing incredible intensity, and have created a new model of politics that will allow them to involve millions of partisans to help the campaign as never before. As I wrote recently, Democratic leaning groups - women, African-Americans, Hispanics and Millennials - turned out in very high numbers in the Democratic primaries, offering what might be a very different electorate in 2008. McCain is by any historic measure, a weak and bumbling candidate, ill-suited for a presidential race, and is still struggling to bring his party together - a party which has never liked him very much anyway.

The polling has been remarkably consistent in one regard. In almost every poll, Obama is in the high 40s, which would lead one to believe this is actually where he is now. What is changing is McCain's number, which is moving around in a range from the low 40s to mid-30s. 42, 42, 38, 36 and now 33.

The conclusion - Obama is definitively ahead of John McCain at this point. Obama has unified his party and overcome problems he had with groups in the primary. He is already ahead in polls in enough states, including CO, FL, MI, NM and PA to see his path to electoral college victory. All rather remarkable for this bi-racial candidate with a funny name who few had heard of even a year ago. McCain, on the other hand, is clearly struggling to get even into the low 40s on a consistent basis. He is having a hard time bringing his party together, and his electoral college map looks problematic now. Even if Obama wins by 4-5 points, it is by presidential standards a landslide. Bush never won by that amount in either of his races. These new double digit polls also show that it is possible for this race to end up where it wants to be - which is Obama winning by 10 or more. Even the ambition of the Obama buy this week is as much about McCain's weakness as it about Obama's strength.

I always assumed that this race would be close until October and then would break open for Obama with him winning by 5-10 points. But the fact that we are seeing this degree of McCain weakness this early is suprising to me, and it is this weakness that is the story of the presidential race so far.

- MTV will now accept political ads according to Ad Age. Ira Teinowitz explains:

The Viacom MTV Networks channel -- once known for round-the-clock music videos and now home to a host of reality shows -- says it will now take political ads, though only from political candidates and party political committees, not from third parties.

- Rolling Stone has a cover story on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. If the picture speaks the truth, not only does Obama know how to use a computer, but he's also an Apple user!

- The Obama-Clinton relationship is starting to take shape. Obama is saying he needs the Clintons' help, and is reaching out to help Sen. Hillary Clinton retire her campaign debt, placing calls to Clinton fundraisers and hearing some criticism in return.

- Yep. Ralph Nader just went there. (via TPM)

- The WSJ's Washington Wire blog shows U.S. Sen. John McCain is heading to Colombia to talk trade, with a stop in Mexico City scheduled on the way back.

- For those paying attention to the Supreme Court decisions, check out SCOTUSblog.

- Ben Smith from The Politico has insight into Obama's plan to focus resources in 14 states George Bush won in 2004.

- Las Vegas is the place to talk energy, as McCain will be there today to boast his green credentials and raise money. (Sorry CBS, but it's kind of ironic that a post on John McCain's energy policy is advertising ground for Exxon Mobil...)

The New York Times covers it this way:

Justice Department officials over the last six years illegally used "political or ideological" factors to hire new lawyers into an elite recruitment program, tapping law school graduates with conservative credentials over those with liberal-sounding resumes, a new report found Tuesday.

The blistering report, prepared by the Justice Department's inspector general, is the first in what will be a series of investigations growing out of last year's scandal over the firings of nine United States attorneys. It appeared to confirm for the first time in an official examination many of the allegations from critics who charged that the Justice Department had become overly politicized during the Bush administration.

"Many qualified candidates" were rejected for the department's honors program because of what was perceived as a liberal bias, the report found. Those practices, the report concluded, "constituted misconduct and also violated the department's policies and civil service law that prohibit discrimination in hiring based on political or ideological affiliations."

The shift began in 2002, when advisers to then-Attorney General John Ashcroft restructured the honors program in response to what some officials saw as a liberal tilt in recruiting young lawyers from elite law schools like Harvard and Yale. While the recruitment was once controlled largely by career officials in each section who would review applications, political officials in the department began to assume more control, rejecting candidates with liberal or Democratic affiliations "at a significantly higher rate" than those with Republican or conservative credentials, the report said.

The shift appeared to accelerate in 2006, under then-Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, with two aides on the screening committee - Michael Elston and Esther Slater McDonald - singled out for particular criticism. The blocking of applicants with liberal credentials appeared to be a particular problem in the Justice Department's civil rights division, which has seen an exodus of career employees in recent years as the department has pursued a more conservative agenda in deciding what types of cases to bring....

Of course, this single event cannot be viewed in isolation. Add to the mix the lying over Iraq,the incredible bungling of the reconstruction and occupation of Iraq, the systemic corruption of GOP politics, the lack of any kind of response to declining incomes and the struggling middle class, the complete botching of the Department of Homeland Security that led to Katrina, the degradation of the U.S. Census process, the now-accepted repudiation of the various Bush legal theories around torture, enemy combatants and habeus corpus, and the picture of the Bush era that emerges is a national party more concerned with its power, privilege and perogative than fulfilling its basic obligations to the American people and the common good (as I wrote recently it is this failure that is at the heart of the recent collapse of the GOP brand).  

The challenge to the Democrats next year will be to uncover all the illegality and malfeasance of this era - as they are obligated to do - without appearing to be on a partisan witch hunt. The government must investigate and uncover, and inform, so as to prevent any thing like this from happening again.

The challenge for a possible President Obama will be to lift up this broken national capital and culture and create a climate and a politics that will allow the American people to have a government again as good and as fair and as smart as they are themselves. For those who have not been here in DC in recent years, it is hard to overstate how broken Washington has become, and how hard it is going to be to get it moving forward in a way that will allow us to tackle the great challenges ahead of us. But creating a politics that will help usher in an age of progress is what is required now, something Obama seems intent on bringing about, and is certainly something we focus on here every day at NDN.

Chris Cillizza weighed in today with an interesting take on the early general election strategies of the two Presidentials. He writes:

The coverage of Barack Obama's decision last week to forego public financing for the general election centered on the fact that the Illinois senator is almost certain to have a considerable spending edge in the fall campaign over John McCain.

What was largely overlooked, however, is how Obama's decision impacts McCain's fundraising between now and when he formally accepts the party's nomination on Sept. 4. Since McCain opted out of public financing for the primary race, he can raise and spend as much as he likes over the next 73 days. And, if he wants to have a real chance at the presidency, he must find a way to come within financial shouting distance of Obama over those next two and a half months.

"Advertising in the summer will be more important than advertising in the fall," said Curt Anderson, a Republican media consultant who advised the presidential candidacy of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. "After the conventions are over there will be a very tiny sliver of the electorate that remains undecided. The pool of undecided voters is bigger in the summer than it will be in the fall."

Recent presidential election history backs up Anderson's contention.

Back in 1996, President Bill Clinton effectively closed out the contest against Sen. Bob Dole (Kans.) during the summer with a slew of advertising that portrayed the Kansas senator as out of touch. Dole, essentially bankrupted after the primary fight, was unable to respond as he waited for his general election money to kick in. By the time it did, the race was over; Clinton sat on his lead and Dole was never able to overcome first impressions....

I wrote about the significance of the Obama buy last week here. And I agree with Cillizza - early media matters, and it is clearly possible given the bigger trends and early poll data that Obama could put this thing away in the next few weeks. All eyes on the McCain response now.

Update: Frank Rich had a great column yesterday, one that touched upon the early advertising strategy of the McCain campaign.

As reported by Reuters, the European Union agreed yesterday to end sanctions against Cuba, although it will insist the Communist island improves its human rights record. EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told reporters, "Cuban sanctions will be lifted," after foreign ministers of the 27-nation bloc clinched agreement at a summit dinner in Brussles. Ferrero-Waldner added, "Of course there is clear language on human rights, on the detention of prisoners and there will have to be a review also."

According to EU sources, the decision - taken despite U.S. calls for the world to "remain tough" on Havana - will be reviewed after one year. Spain reportedly led the push for a softening in policy towards Cuba, meeting some resistance from the bloc's ex-communist members and the Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt. The sanctions had already been suspended in 2005, and unlike the U.S. embargo, the sanctions did not prevent trade and investment. Regardless, this is a major policy change, and lifting the sanctions is at odds with the current U.S policy towards Cuba.

Despite the current hard-line approach to Cuba in the U.S., could the EU's decision foreshadow what might become U.S. policy under a new president? Reuters reported that a draft it obtained of the EU agreement calls on Cuban authorities to: improve human rights, including unconditional release of political prisoners, ratification U.N. rights conventions, and giving humanitarian organizations access to Cuban jails. This sounds very similar to what Sen. Barack Obama said just a few weeks ago as he delivered a major speech on Latin American Foreign Policy before the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF): "My policy toward Cuba will begin with justice for Cuba's political prisoners, the rights of free speech, a free press and freedom of assembly; and it must lead to elections that are free and fair."

Like Sen. John McCain, Sen. Obama would maintain an embargo on Cuba, but only as "leverage to present the regime with a clear choice: if you take significant steps toward democracy, beginning with the freeing of all political prisoners, we will take steps to begin normalizing relations." Sen. Obama sees "principled diplomacy" as the way to bring about real change in Cuba. In his speech, Sen. Obama criticized what he called the eight years of "the Bush record in Latin America," i.e., having been, "negligent toward our friends, ineffective with our adversaries, disinterested in the challenges that matter in peoples' lives, and incapable of advancing our interests in the [American] region...The United States is so alienated from the rest of the Americas that this stale vision has gone unchallenged....The situation has changed in the Americas, but we've failed to change with it. Instead of engaging the people of the region, we've acted as if we can still dictate terms unilaterally....the future security and prosperity of the United States is fundamentally tied to the future of the Americas. If we don't turn away from the policies of the past, then we won't be able to shape the future."

Sen. Obama's idea of a "new alliance of the Americas," at the center of that major speech, has been greeted with favor by Cuban-Americans from all political camps. It seems they agree with Sen. Obama's position that American politicians go "to Miami every four years, they talk tough, they go back to Washington, and nothing changes in Cuba....the parade of politicians who make the same empty promises year after year, decade after decade."

Barack Obama's proposal for change with Latin America favors discussion with "friend and foe alike," in order to be a "leader and not a bystander." Under his proposal, Sen. Obama would:

1) Reinstate a Special Envoy for the Americas in the White House.

2) Expand the Foreign Service, and open more consulates in the neglected regions of the Americas; expand the Peace Corps, and ask more young Americans to go abroad to "deepen the trust and the ties among our people."

3) With respect to Cuba, he would allow unlimited family travel and remittances to the island.

4) He would maintain the embargo, but also work with the Cuban regime to examine normalizing relations if it takes significant steps toward democracy, beginning with the freeing of all political prisoners.

5) Increase international aid, investment promotion, and economic development in Latin America.

6) Develop democracy through negotiations, "Put forward a vision of democracy that goes beyond the ballot box. We should increase our support for strong legislatures, independent judiciaries, free press, vibrant civil society, honest police forces, religious freedom, and the rule of law. That is how we can support democracy that is strong and sustainable not just on an election day, but in the day to day lives of the people of the Americas."

It's important to note that Sen. Obama delivered this ground-breaking speech and revolutionary proposals in front of the CANF - the group previously known for being one of the most hard-line on Cuba policy, rejecting anything other than the overthrow of Castro as acceptable policy. But the CANF applauded. Soon after that speech, the founder of Women in White, Miriam Leiva, and her recently freed dissident husband, Oscar Chepe, also wrote an open letter to Barack Obama; they applauded his offer to allow Cuban Americans to freely visit relatives here.

They also wrote that a more creative policy could help the transition towards democracy. It seems that times are-a-changing, and everyone recognizes that the status quo has not been effective for anyone. Sen.Obama and these groups are picking up on what NDN advocated before it was popular, before this change in public perception had occurred. NDN has been a pioneer on the issue of policy with Cuba; in 2006 NDN conducted an important poll with Bendixen and Associates. The poll showed that 72% of Cuban-Americans in South Florida were actually open to consideration of creative means of engaging the people of Cuba and its government to accelerate democratization. The poll also showed that support for the trade embargo, restrictions on travel and restrictions on remittances all dropped ten percentage points over one year.

Yesterday, Senator Obama bought advertising in 18 states. Three of these 18 come from the 19 states Democrats have won in each of the last four presidential elections - MI, PA, WI. The rest - 15 - are purple or red states. (For more on this, visit Aaron's post from yesterday, which had some very good maps and the ad itself).

The most interesting thing about this buy is that in addition to the nine states widely believed to be the race's true battleground - CO, FL, IA, MO, NC, NH, NM, NV, VA - the campaign has bought in states few had been predicting would be in play - Alaska, Georgia, Montana, Indiana and North Dakota.

I don't have dollar figures, but this appears to be a huge buy. The ad is 60 seconds, twice as long as a traditional spot. And the campaign is up in states - these last five - that can best be described as speculative at this point. What this shows is what Obama's incredible fundraising success is able to buy him - an early buy in a lot of states, a 60-second ad and and a dramatic effort to expand the playing field by putting five small to medium size states in play with early media.

This buy says two things about the campaign to come. First, that it is going to be largely played on red or purple turf, and that McCain's claim to be able to dig deep into traditional Democratic turf is more bluster than reality (for more on this see this post). Additionally, it says that the Obama campaign has begun its general election campaign in a big, bold, aggressive - audacious - manner. The Obama team is swinging big and trying hard to change the rules of the game.

It will be very interesting to see the McCain response in the days ahead. He cannot afford to let Obama set the terms of the debate, or start to open up a lead in the electoral college as it might begin to lead to national news stories that his campaign is "in trouble." This is a big, early and important test for what has been a very wobbly McCain campaign.

Mon am update - The Post has an interesting piece this am looking into the emerging Obama general election strategy.