Barack Obama

In a video blog Tuesday, I talked about my sense of where things stood this week - Obama's masterful foreign trip, his consistent 4-8 lead in the national polls and strong showing in the Electoral College and McCain's growing desperation as his bumbling campaign senses this thing slipping away from them (is it really possible that on the day McCain wanted to visit an offshore rig, weather blocked him, and a polluting spill took place?)

As we all await Senator Obama's speech in Berlin today, my sense is that these emerging impressions of Obama's strength and McCain's weakness may be hardening into conventional wisdom with the media and those following the race closely (we predicted this a few weeks ago, and wrote about it again here). David Broder speaks to this sentiment in his column today. It will be interesting to see if this week, which has done so much to highlight the very stark contrast between these two campaigns, shows up in the polls over the next 10 days or so. So far, there is not a lot of evidence that it has. But time will tell.

Whatever happens with the polls in the short term, this race has achieved a stable dynamic. The Obama campaign is winning, performing well, taking big swings. The McCain camp is stumbling, not really ready for primetime, and is losing the race. I didn't think this dynamic would change all that much until we hit the two Conventions, but perhaps this week will give Obama a few points. Given all this, the central question of this race now is can McCain somehow change the dynamic of the race? I am very doubtful. His campaign is not very good. He is a weak and bumbling candidate, not capable through his public appearances of turning it around. The issue environment is unfavorable to him, with foreign policy quickly becoming less and less an area of opportunity for him. The central argument of his new TV campaign - that he has a plan to lower gas prices and Obama is to blame for high energy prices - is simply untrue, and not really sustainable over time. It is no longer clear to me whether McCain really has the capacity to alter this emerging dynamic in the campaign on his own.

While there is a long way to go in this race, this week is beginning to feel like a seminal one in the campaign, one in which a new and powerful dynamic kicked in, one, that if it holds, will have Obama winning in the fall, and the Democrats having more power in Washington than they've had in 40 years.

Update: Related to this emerging question of whether McCain and his team are really ready for primetime, see this new piece by Fred Kaplan in Slate.

Via Der Spiegel.

- Richard Simmons for Congress.

- According to AdAge, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign dropped $5 million to be among the sponsors of NBC's Olympics coverage. His spots will run on both network and cable TV.

- Obama is in Berlin where he is set to deliver his much-anticipated speech at 1 p.m. EST (If you needed more proof, Gallup has more polling showing just how much Europeans prefer Obama to McCain). Jake Tapper has a great post on Obama's speech. Meanwhile, McCain is in Ohio at a Livestrong Summit with Lance Armstrong. Tomorrow he's off to meet the Dalai Lama in Colorado.

- U.S. Sen. John McCain's VP update: Gov. Bobby Jindal said he will not be McCain's VP yesterday and Chris Cillizza points out that the Michigan Democratic Party is going after Mitt Romney in a new web ad.

- The Obama campaign is ramping up its interaction with the Hill. Yesterday, campaign manager David Plouffe met with House Democrats to discuss strategy, and The Hill points out that the campaign is coordinating a publicity blitz with "Obamacans" (those who have been aligned with the Republican Party but back Obama).

- The Hill also reports that donors who backed Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2006 don't seem to be giving their financial support to McCain. In fact, it cites financial records which show that "only two of John McCain's post-primary contributions [over $200] have come from Sen. Joe Lieberman supporters".

- Jonathan Martin has a must-read piece in The Politico about how the GOP is losing the new-media war.

- Want a ticket to come see Barack Obama's acceptance speech in Denver? Chuck Plunkett says Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, wants you to leave as an informed Obama volunteer.

- Robert Reich compares the economic philosophies of both candidates in a clear, understandable way on his blog.

- John McCain has a new web ad out in South Florida that places Barack Obama next to Fidel Castro with "Fidel Castro thinks he is the most advanced candidate" on it. Check out the Huffington Post for an image. This is interesting, as our own Will Wallace rightly points out, because Obama's Spanish-language radio ad that is running in FL highlights issues like education, job growth, etc., which are what's really relevant. Learn more in NDN's 2006 Cuba poll.

- In the Turkish daily, Today's Zaman, Jeffrey Sachs reflects on the G8 Summit meeting in Japan and asks where all the global leaders are.

- President Bush will address the RNC Convention, but who knows where he'll fit in the line up.

- And finally, check out the Secret Pants video below where the interviewer asks participants whether phrases were said by Batman or President Bush. Thanks for the head's up, Nate! I'm not sure how I feel about the likeness in some of these, but it's amusing nonetheless:

(via Time)

(via Der Spiegel)

In the video below, NDN President Simon Rosenberg offers his thoughts on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's trip overseas, what the polls show, and U.S. Sen. John McCain's recent ad that blames Obama for high gas prices. It's about 4 minutes long, so check it out.

As he says, we're going to be doing more of these so let us know what you think. And if you have any questions you'd like him to answer in the next video, feel free to leave it in the comments below. Don't know how? Use our help section!

For more of Simon's analysis, check out two of his recent posts: Is Cheney Tied Up Somewhere? and The Story of the Race So Far - the Surprising Weakness of John McCain.

Update: In the video, Simon talks about Obama leading in Nevada and New Hampshire, but he meant to say Iowa, not Ohio.

A new ad out today from the McCain campaign seeks to blame Barack Obama for rising gas prices. Take a look at "Pump," and the interesting imagery:

The overall narrative that the McCain camp is trying to pin on Obama through the first half of this ad and its dark imagery is evident: a figure we don’t know much about who is a pop sensation built only on false hopes and making our lives worse. The image of Obama floating in front of spinning gas prices while crowds chant his name is especially pointed.

The ad continues to be over the top by being almost entirely intellectually dishonest. Note the wording of the blame that McCain puts on Obama: "Some in Washington are still saying no to drilling in America." The ad uses the word "still" because McCain changed his view on drilling about a month ago, and, even if he had his policy, gas prices would not be any lower.

McCain also tries to have it both ways, as his campaign generally tries to point out Obama’s inexperience, but then goes back and holds Obama responsible for three decades of American energy policy, while giving himself a free pass. In fact, courtesy of Politico's Ben Smith, a recent quote from a McCain speech, that works more as a self-indictment than anything else:

"Let me give you a little bit of straight talk on energy. Our dangerous dependence on foreign oil has been thirty years in the making, and was caused by the failure of politicians in Washington to think long term about the future of the country."

McCain looked to be gaining momentum on energy security and offshore drilling, at least as being able to point to a specific plan on energy prices (even an ineffective one). This ad has a desperate feel, and is so easily debunked and ironic, that it seems like McCain has decided to just run against Hope.

- Continuing his world tour, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is in Jordan today with his recently repainted plane. (This time, you can see change in the air!) ABC's Jake Tapper has more details of the trip, which includes a press conference with Obama on his trips to Afghanistan and Iraq. Look for more questions regarding Obama's assessment of the surge to come up.

- For those looking for an interesting piece on how the Netroots is adjusting to Obama's candidacy, check out this Washington Post piece from Jose Antonio Vargas. As Simon explains:

"Think about it: Netroots was born at a time when the Democrats were in opposition, and it's learning how to be a force of good when the Democrats are in power -- and could have more power next year."

- Negating recent polls that reflect a European fondness of Obama, the WSJ's Washington Wire cites David Aaronovitch's column in The Times of London to show that their feelings are not likely to last.

- Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. John McCain is successfully breaking into the press cycle with speculation over whether he will soon announce his VP candidate. As Eric Kleefeld points out, McCain is set to meet with LA Governor Bobby Jindal tomorrow. Coincidence? For more on the VP stakes, check out Christina Bellantoni's piece in the Washington Times that features some advice from Simon on picking a VP:

"The single most important thing is it has to be somebody Barack Obama actually likes. This is the greatest battle of your life, and you should have someone you know and trust at your side."

- Whether or not Evan Bayh fits that particular mold is uncertain, though Chris Cillizza makes the case for him in The Fix. Andrew Sullivan also has a good roundup of the VP speculation - in addition to some devastating news about the latest Caped Crusader - over at The Daily Dish.

- The New York Times is defending its decision not to publish an oped "as submitted" from John McCain. The paper is willing to look at another version, but the McCain campaign isn't planning on submitting one.

- Since eyes will be following Bobby Jindal, it is worth mentioning that his state of Louisiana just asked the Supreme Court to reconsider its ruling on the death penalty for child rape. (via SCOTUSblog)

- Hillary Clinton's donors are giving to Barack Obama, at least according to The Trail's Sarah Cohen and Matthew Mosk.

- Will the real Ron Burgundy please stand up?

For years, NDN has been a leader on Hispanic issues, including comprehensive immigration reform and analysis of Latino demographic and voting trends. In the last few months, NDN has set out to make the argument that Hispanic and immigrant voters have become a critical voting bloc in the United States and will play a pivotal role this fall and in all future elections. Our arguments went public in a big way in late May as we released Hispanics Rising II, an in-depth, updated look at Hispanic demographic and voting trends and the critical role that the Hispanic community is playing in U.S. politics. Below are some of the articles relevant to our argument as well as Andres's presentation at NCLR's Conference in San Diego last week:

Latino turnout could hold key to White House - San Francisco Chronicle, by Tyche Hendricks, May 21, 2008

Obama closes in on Democratic nomination - Xinhua General News Service, by Yang Qingchuan, May 21, 2008.

Obama looks west in electoral map play - Politico, by Carrie Budoff Brown, May 27, 2008

Favorece voto latino a demócratas por tema de inmigración en EU - El Financiero, May 28, 2008

Obama woos key states with accent on Spanish - Financial Times, By Andrew Ward in Reno, Nevada, and Edward Luce in Washington, May 29, 2008

Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election - Mashall News Messenger, by Bob Deans, May 29, 2008

Democratic Group Says Hispanic Voters Run to Democratic Party - Kansas City Infozine, by Christian A. Cheairs, May 29, 2008

Election 2008: Latino vote could be pivotal in Western states - San Jose Mercury News, By Frank Davies, May 29, 2008

El voto latino aumenta y se vuelve más demócrata - La Opinion, Pilar Marrero, May 29, 2008

Obama va por el voto hispano - CNN Espanol, May 29, 2008

Obama's E Pluribus Challenge - Rolling Stone, June 04, 2008

Obama leads in battle for Latino vote - Los Angeles Times, by Reed Johnson, June 06, 2008

Obama en busca del voto latino - La Opinion, by Pilar Marrero, June 06, 2008

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge - Miami Herald, by Andres Oppenheimer, June 08, 2008

Spanish-language media key to victory with Latinos - Politico, by Gebe Martinez, June 10, 2008

El voto latino será crucial en 2008 - Univision, June 13, 2008

Shift on immigration could cost McCain - St. Petersburg Times, by Alex Leary and Wes Allison, June 21, 2008

The swing states of 2008 - Salon.com, by Thomas F. Schaller, June 24, 2008

Obama, McCain make strong bid for Latino votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, June 26, 2008

McCain, Obama battle for Hispanic votes - The Hill, by Roxana Tiron, June 28, 2008

Swinging for Latinos - New Mexico Independent, by Marjorie Childress, July 1, 2008

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states - Associated Press, by Stephen Ohlemacher, July 2, 2008

McCain revs efforts to woo Hispanic voters - The Arizona Republic, by Dan Nowicki, July 10, 2008

POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election - North County Times, CA, by Edward Sifuentes, Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama prepara un "llamado a las trincheras" durante un foro hispano - EFE News Service, Andres's interview with Maria Pena, July 13, 2008.

NPR: 'Bush Hispanics' Say Goodbye To GOP, by Jennifer Ludden, July 13, 2008

McCain woos Latinos, touts immigration votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, July 15, 2008