Barack Obama

Daily Tracks Now Average 7 Points

Catch the latest poll analysis from DemFromCT this morning, showing among many other things the poll average now at 7 points. 

The Post has a story this morning detailing the McCain's camp decision to go scorched earth all the way to the end now. 

1045am Update - Rasmussen's daily starts this way: 

With one month to go until Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily
Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting
51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. For each of the past nine
days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45% (see trends). The stability of these results suggests that the McCain campaign faces a very steep challenge in the remaining few weeks of Election 2008.

McCain's Mixed Messages on Immigration?

NDN has followed U.S. Sen. John McCain's track record on Immigration. The latest is John McCain's second ad on immigration in Spanish. Andres commented on the ad during an interview with NPR:

"It's disturbing to me, as a Hispanic, to have someone who feels he can blatantly deceive and think people won't pay attention," says Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs at NDN..."

Marisa wrote about the ad, and NDN has long advocated on: 1) the importance of the Hispanic vote (this demographic could very well swing several southern and western states in this election), and 2) the issue of immigration as a motivating factor in the way many Hispanics vote regardless of whether they are native or foreign born - this is thanks to the GOP strategy of turning the debate on immigration into a debate on whether Hispanics should be in this country.

Actually, McCain's message on immigration is not mixed at all - since 2006 he's been consistently against immigration reform. The first and second ads focus on misrepresenting Obama's position on immigration, but at no time do they state McCain's position - much less go as far as saying that McCain supports immigration reform. Instead, since the GOP now recognizes that Hispanics respond negatively to these anti-Hispanic attacks, they created the same kind of degrading ad except this time they (inaccurately)attribute the comments about Mexico and immigrants to Barack Obama.

So will McCain's attempt at making Obama seem anti-Hispanic work? Andres is right - it's not working. NDN and analysts across the board believe the large numbers of Hispanic voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida could be decisive in those swing states. Our latest polling in these states showed that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain by at least 30 points among Hispanics in the Southwest, and specifically on the issue of immigration, Hispanics believe Barack Obama would do a better job than John McCain. Even in Florida, where the candidates were even among Hispanics (42%-42%), when asked about immigration, 42% of voters trusted Barack Obama to better handle the issue over 37% preferring John McCain. The largest difference was in Nevada, where 60% of Hispanics trusted Barack Obama more on the issue of immigration, while only 18% preferred John McCain.

And the latest ad makes no sense when put in context - on the one hand, the McCain campaign launches this ad to attempt to portray Obama as anti-immigrant, while on the other hand, they create another ad in English and Spanish that attacks Obama for allegedly voting against allowing people to own guns in order to defend themselves from these "criminal aliens" who are "crossing illegally into our country." So which is it?

In a year when the Hispanic electorate has nearly doubled from what it was in 2000 (from 7.5 million to approximately 14 million this year), given that Hispanics make up a large part of the electorate in key Southern and Western states, and given that Hispanics are mobilizing to get out the vote, to vote early and vote absentee in those states, it does not bode well for John McCain.




Some Modest Liveblogging

901pm - I think Palin will do well tonight.  She's a natural. 

903pm - My CNN HD has a running dial group with Ohio undecideds.  It's a wild way to watch the debate. I will resist referencing it during my blogging.  Biden had a solid start.  She tried hard but didn't do so much. 

907pm - Palin - we bring new energy.  John McCain! 

910pm - She's just getting out there, delivering her message, making her case.  She's not responding to Biden, not attacking.  Just using this time to make her case.  She's a very good messenger.  Biden is arguing, not making the simple case for the Obama message.  He's not making his case to the audience....

925pm - I dont really understand her argument when Governor Palin makes the case that she is the one who will take on the oil companies, not Obama Biden.  The McCain Palin ticket has so little to work with.  

928pm - Biden makes the case for keeping people in their homes!  Thanks Joe.

930pm - Palin just repeated the most crazy fringe thing she has ever said - that it doesn't matter what has created climate change we just have to fix it.  That climate change may also have been caused by cyclical weather patters? Friends, what does this mean?  Don't we need to understand what has caused it in order to combat it?  Oh, Biden just said this.  Well done Joe. Of all the wild stuff she has ever said this is the craziest and most dangerous.

939pm - Iraq.  Man she really sounds like she is over her head now.  Hate it when all these talking points run together! Biden's answer got off the charts ratings from the Ohio dial group.  Biden is just burying her in this portion of this show.  She seems so out of her depth.  He is raising the bar now. 

951pm - Maybe she's a little tired now.  Biden is finally, finally making the case now that the Bush strategy for the Middle East has been an abject failure.  Her response - change the subject!  This part of the debate has been a rout, a rout.

10pm - Biden just knocked the ball out of the park on Darfur, and on Iraq.  She just can't play at this level.  This part has left her smaller, diminished.  And she knows it. 

1015pm - Biden has kept his game at a very high level for a long time now.  She is trying hard to get back in the game but just can't keep up.  

1019pm - Exceptionalism.  Beacon of Hope.  My old boss Linda Ellerbee had a great line - the words are all there they are just in the wrong order.  She is awfully likable but she comes off as a well-intentioned local pol fighting way above her weight. "Quasi-caved in."

1028pm - This has been a good night for Joe Biden, and Barack Obama.  Palin did all right, but simply could not play at this level.  Biden gained confidence, strength and his voice as the night went along.  All in all I think Senator Biden just got much more out of tonight than Governor Palin, which of course is a problem for the McCain Palin ticket.

SS McCain Palin Is Taking On All Sorts of Water

Apparently the McCain campaign announced late today that they have to win MN, PA or WI to win. 

According to every poll, every map this is not looking likely,perhaps even possible.

What was this announcement exactly?  

Am a little amazed by this admission.  It is close to a public admission of defeat as you can get at this level of politics.

A Great Kos Post

This is one of Markos's more inspired posts of late....


New Time/CNN polls have Obama leading in FL, MO, MN, NV, VA

New polls out this pm provide further evidence of how much the race has shifted in recent weeks: 

Polls in five crucial battleground states in the race for the White
House released Wednesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some
major gains.

Clearly if these numbers hold Obama will win handily on election day. 

815pm Update - New CBS/NYTimes poll has it 49-40 Obama.  The cascade of very bad polling data for McCain these last few days is going to create a new media narrative - that McCain is in danger of losing the election, that his campaign is troubled and failing, that Senator Obama has had a very very good couple of weeks and goes into these final weeks with momentum.

Thurs 8am Update - DemFromCT reviews the polls, and the news sure isn't good for McCain Palin. 

The Presidential Race is Stablizing with Obama Firmly In The Lead

After a period of significant movement to Obama over the last couple of weeks, the major nightly tracks seem to be settling down.  The major tracks have the race anywhere from 4 to 10 points now. The Real Clear Politics poll aggregate now has the race 49% - 44.2% Obama.  Their Electoral College map now has the race at 348 EVs for Obama, with Virginia, North Carolina and Florida now in the Lean Obama category. 

So the race is settling down in a way that looks awfully bad for John McCain and Sarah Palin.  I still don't see an easy and clear path for how they turn this thing around absent a major stumble or scandal from the Obama camp.  A big stumble at this point while possible is unlikely - Senator Obama has proven himself again and again to be effective at this level of politics, and if anything his campaign is hitting its stride, finding its voice at the right time.  The latest round of direct-to-camera ads from the Obama camp have been the best media the campaign has produced in some time, and I am sure are contributing to the vastly improved position in the key battleground states.

230pm Update: DemFromCT has a great new polling update.

Kos Daily Track Shows More Obama Momentum

Evidence from the Kos Daily Track that the recent dynamic in the race - movement to Obama and away from McCain - hasn't yet abated.  This track shows significant movement in the last few days, and now has the race 51-42. I offered these thoughts on the race and the new Obama momentum last night. 

With all eyes moving to an increasingly unpopular and limited Palin, the McCain camp does not appear to have a lot of tools to change this increasingly challenging dynamic this week.

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