Bush / GOP

The Minnesota race continues, but don't hold your breath - Democratic candidate Al Franken got a boost on Friday in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman.  On Friday, the state's election oversight board recommended that each of the state's 87 counties review absentee ballots initially rejected as invalid, and submit amended vote tallies that include any ballots found to be wrongly rejected.  The thing is, the board does not have the authority to require counties to conduct such a review, so it would be up to the candidates to issue legal challenges to force the issue should any county decline to re-examine the legitimacy of the disputed ballots.  The Secretary of State projects that more than 1,500 absentee ballots could be found to have been improperly turned away, and if this turns out to be the case,  Al Franken would have to win a relatively small plurality of those ballots to overcome the razor-thin lead held by Coleman following a hand recount of votes cast in the Senate race.

Judiciary Loses Its Lion - In case you missed it, Sen. Ted Kennedy stepped down from his post on the Committee on the Judiciary.  It will be interesting to see who will start to throw their hat in the ring to succeed Sen. Kennedy, and whether that person can - and will - follow Sen. Kennedy's example in the area of immigration reform. 

Tough Week for DHS:   1) DHS Programs caught midstream in the transition - Among them, the controversial SBInet border security system, construction of it is scheduled to begin in March 2009 in Arizona.  After being known in Congress for cost overruns, malfunctions, gaps in management, and miscommunication with Congress, Alice Lipowicz reports on the challenges ahead for SBInet advocates. 
2) A perfect example of the broken immigration system:  the cleaning service used by DHS Secretary Chertoff to clean his house had undocumented immigrants working there.  What better example of how broken our immigration system really is, and the urgent need to fix it.  At least the Secretary didn't "knowingly" hire "illegals," as did  Lorraine Henderson, an employee of Customs and Border Protection (emphasis added) - Ms. Henderson reportedly was recorded warning her cleaning lady to be "careful" to not get caught.  Who said DHS didn't care?  A former FEMA employee who was sentenced earlier this year for identity theft, with which he funded shopping sprees, has been handed five plus years in federal prison. 
3) Detention center in Rhode Island will get no more detainees, pending an inquiry into the treatment, and subsequent death, of a Chinese engineer in that detention center. 
4) A judge's denial of DHS's request for a mid-January decision in the case involving DHS's rule pertaining to no-match letters means that President-elect Obama inherits the prolongued legal dispute over the current administration's push to pressure employers to fire undocumented workers.  It is highly unlikely that an Obama administration would pursue the current flawed DHS rule.  In his platform, Pres-elect Obama has proposed an effective verification system as a part of comprehensive reform.
5) TWIC Delays Upset Workers - U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and their contractor, Lockheed Martin, had a great many truckers and port workers upset at them as the workers' new biometric Transportation Worker Identification Cards - which they must possess by Dec. 30 in order to be able to work - were delayed.  Some workers in Baltimore reported to TSA on several occasions to pick up their TWIC cards and were turned away due to the volume of people ahead of them.
6) A GAO report released this week on the planning and execution improvements needed for the US-VISIT program.    

What Immigration Reform does NOT look like - This week President Bush announced regulatory changes to the H-2A agricultural guestworker program that remove important protections for workers and make it easier for employers to bring in foreign workers.  Once again, this is amnesty for unscrupulous employers, not reform.  

Utah Guest worker program to be implemented - The state legislation, SB81 has received ample criticism, and could very well face challenges in the coming weeks and months, prior to its implementation.  

Henryk Kowalczyk's Huffington Post must-read post on why the Immigration debate is about so much more than just immigration.   

Census Updated American Community Survey - The U.S. Census released its 2008 community survey this week, and reiterates the trend mentioned before: immigrants and minorities are moving away from cities and becoming a larger part of the population in suburbs, etc. 

New Tools in Immigration, too - the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and the New York University School of Law (NYU) launched a project called "State Responses to Immigration" as a joint effort to provide a free, searchable data tool designed to generate information on all immigration-related bills at the state and local level across the nation.

Hate Crimes - Sadly, another Ecuadorian man was killed in New York by a group of men who viciously attacked him.  Jose Sucuzhanay's homicide is under investigation, and it is helping gather civil rights leaders from accross the country to address the spike in hate crimes against Latinos.  Mexicans at the U.S.-Mexico border also report an increase in hate crimes and agression based on nationality and ethnicity.  We see an important social turning point, immigrants - Hispanic ones in particular - fight back against discrimination.  In Tennessee, legal immigrants who had their documents unlawfully taken from them are filing suit.

Interesting article in the Arizona Daily Star on the border fence.  

New IPC Report - The Immigration Policy Center has compiled a major report on minority and New American voter data, as well as motivating issues in the 2008 election cycle.  The report also explores the outlook for immigration reform.

Employers need education on the effects of immigration, too - According to the latest survey released by Manpower, a private Human Resurces firm, 62% of the 4,804 employers in Mexico who were surveyed described themselves as not particularly concerned with the impact of emigration on the Mexican labor market, the remaining 38% does believe that emigration can have a harmful effect on the Mexican economy and cause a potential "brain drain," as well.  An estimated 8 million 5 hundred thousand Mexicans work outside of Mexico.

About 150,000 immigrants from Michoacan are estimated to return to this Mexican state for the Holidays, although there are no estimates as to how many might remain in Mexico.   It is estimated that immigrants going to Mexico for the Holidays will inject about $5 billion into the Mexican economy.

Rough stuff from this week's edition:

FOR American and European savers it has been a lost decade. After two booms and two busts, stockmarkets have earned them nothing, or less, in the past ten years. Low interest rates have made bonds and bank deposits unrewarding too. Were it not for the tax relief they receive, contributors to personal pension plans would have been better off keeping their money under their mattresses. It will be little consolation to Westerners that savers in Japan have known this empty feeling for far longer.

This year's figures are enough to put anybody off saving. American mutual-fund assets have declined by $2.4 trillion-a fifth of their value-since the start of 2008; in Britain, the drop is more than a quarter, or almost £130 billion ($195 billion). The value of global stockmarkets has shrunk by maybe $30 trillion, or roughly half. These figures put the losses on credit-related securities-where the financial crisis began-into the shade.

Nor has the bad news been confined to equities. This year the value of all manner of risky investments, from corporate bonds to commodities to hedge funds, has been clobbered. The belief that diversification into "alternative assets" could prevent investors losing money in bear markets has proved false. And of course housing, which many people counted on for their retirement nest-eggs, has lost value too (see article).

As a result, saving seems like pouring money into a black hole (see article). Any American who has diligently put $100 a month into a domestic equity mutual fund for the past ten years will find his pot worth less than he put into it; a European who did the same has lost a quarter of his money.

Find the rest of this compelling editorial here.

As he has through much of the financial crisis, Prime Minister Gordon Brown is again exerting impressive leadership, this time on staunching foreclosures.

On the BBC:

Many people hit by the downturn will be able to defer part of their mortgage interest payments for up to two years under plans unveiled by Gordon Brown.

The plan is designed to give those who lose their jobs or suffer a big cut in income extended breathing space if they are facing repossession.

The scheme will cover mortgages worth up to £400,000, the BBC understands.

The lender and homeowner will agree on the proportion of payment to be deferred, but it could be up to 100%.

NDN remains impressed by Brown's leadership in the face of these financial and economic crises and depressed by the Bush Administration's complete abdication of leadership. For more on NDN’s campaign to Keep People in Their Homes, click here.

In an interview with ABC News, looking back on his presidency, George W. Bush said that one of his biggest disappointments was the failure to pass a comprehensive bill on immigration reform, and regrets the tone taken by many in his party on this issue:

"I firmly believe that the immigration debate really didn't show the
true nature of America as a welcoming society," he said. "I fully
understand we need to enforce law and enforce borders. But the debate
took on a tone that undermined the true greatness of America, which is
that we welcome people who want to work hard and support their
families."

The financial crisis and the profound economic reversals reverberating around the globe caught up last week with Citigroup, the world's largest financial institution. Citigroup is still solvent, but it holds several hundred billion dollars of heavily-leveraged, troubled assets – and once the market began to focus on the potential losses, as it did last week, the bailout became a foregone conclusion. But the terms of that bailout -- on top of the deals for AIG, taxpayer infusions for solvent institutions such as Wells Fargo and State Street, and new Federal Reserve loans for any financial firm holding a wide range of assets -- are beginning to look like an American version of crony capitalism. The critical distinction lost or forgotten in much of Treasury and Fed’s dealings is that the government’s proper role in rescuing or bolstering private companies during a crisis is to help them only under specific terms that directly benefit the taxpayers footing the bill.

Crony capitalism is usually associated with the way many governments in Africa, Asia and Latin America conduct public business, where government contracts, budgets and other public activities are routinely channeled to the families, friends and associates of political elites, rather than being allocated through some open bidding or other democratic processes. Variants of crony capitalism occur in the United States, too. In one infamous example, Halliburton “won” billions of dollars in no-bid contracts for Iraq while its former CEO was Vice President; and crony capitalism lurks behind billions in pork barrel appropriations passed every year by Congress. But when it begins to infect huge government operations taken to deal with an emergency, it has more serious and insidious effects. Japan famously practiced crony capitalism in its multi-trillion-yen “rescue” operations for its failing banking system in the 1990s, and bought itself a decade of stagnation and at least another decade as the worst-performing advanced economy in the world.

The terms of the Citigroup deal raise the specter of crony capitalism. The taxpayers will invest $20 billion in the company, receiving preferred stock that will pay 8 percent dividends, and Citigroup will bear the first $29 billion in losses from its current portfolio of $306 billion in troubled loans and assets. After that, the taxpayers absorb 90 percent of any additional losses in exchange for another $7 billion in preferred stock. The likelihood that Citigroup’s losses will far exceed the first $29 billion is disturbingly high. The financial crisis almost certainly will deliver additional shocks, because the current policies have done little to address the forces driving the crisis. The housing market continues to unravel; and with business investment, consumption and jobs all contracting rapidly, foreclosures continue to rise. As they do, more mortgage-backed securities and the derivatives based on them will go bad, and the consequent losses could claim much of the capital infusions that taxpayers have already provided. As the IMF and others have warned, large additional losses also could come from other sources. Most notably, the spreading global recession, on top of national banking crises in other countries, are producing enormous pressures on government financing operations in a number of nations, including some in the Eurozone, which in turn may produce sovereign debt defaults. And most of the sovereign debt that could well default in coming months is held today by financial institutions, especially ours.

While the administration’s program barely acknowledges the implications of these dangerous dynamics in its bailout policies, President-elect Obama has at least pledged to address the underlying foreclosure problem and provide very large stimulus that could begin to ease the U.S. downturn and, with it, the global recession. The larger question is whether the new administration will also reject creeping crony capitalism by requiring that the bailouts almost certain to come next year oblige the financial institutions claiming all that cash to conduct themselves in ways that directly benefit the taxpayers picking up their bills.

Remarkably, the current administration has imposed no such requirements while doling out hundreds of billions of dollars to insulate our large financial firms from the worst consequences of their own decisions. In fact, even last week, as the Treasury was bailing out Citigroup, the Federal Reserve announced another $200 billion program for financial companies holding securities backed by consumer debt, now threatened by the recession triggered by the financial meltdown. Here’s a notion for the next administration: Since the essential reason to bail out all of these various institutions is to unfreeze the routine lending that keeps the U.S. economy going, tie future bailouts to specific commitments to reboot lending American businesses and households. This is precisely what Sweden did in the early 1990s when its financial sector melted down, and the strategy of tying capital assistance to renewed lending helped produce a genuine recovery.

Crony capitalization may be the signature moral hazard of an administration which continues to believe that, even when taxpayers provide hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out powerful institutions, the government should have as little say as possible in the way they conduct themselves. It shouldn’t be good enough for an Obama presidency. When the next shocks hit our financial system and those institutions come back for more, the new administration should opt for democratic capitalism over crony capitalism, and apply lending requirements to actively open up the nation’s credit markets.

Today's Post has an excellent analysis of Virginia's changing electoral landscape, detailing Democratic gains with Hispanics, African-Americans, young people and upper income and more educated voters.  The story of what happened in Virginia in 2008 mirrors what happened across the nation, and makes very clear the national GOP's problems are structural as well as temporal - they simply are not building a Party and a Coalition suited to the demographic realities of 21st century America.  

An excerpt:

The party's gains rest heavily upon the state's changing demographics and were amplified this year by deep enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential and senatorial candidates, coupled with a broadly successful turnout operation.

In Northern Virginia's outer suburbs, a growing number of nonwhite residents, particularly Hispanics, are diminishing what had long been a big source of votes for Republican candidates. Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford counties and Manassas and Manassas Park have all experienced double-digit increases in the percentage of nonwhite residents since 2000. And in each of those locations, Democrats' share of the vote increased proportionally.

The nonwhite population of Prince William, for example, has grown by 13 percentage points since 2000. President-elect Barack Obama carried the county with almost 58 percent of the vote -- 13 points better than former vice president Al Gore did in the 2000 presidential race.

Loudoun experienced a 12-point gain in the minority population since 2000, and Obama did 13 percentage points better than Gore did in 2000. Obama did 10 points better than Gore in Stafford, which saw a 10 percent increase in the minority population since 2000.

This shift, matched with historical Democratic strength in the inner suburbs, makes Northern Virginia a huge source of votes for Democrats. The region's size, compared with the rest of the state, threatens Republicans' ability to win statewide if Democrats can continue to get their voters to the poll, demographers and political scientists suggest.

"The transformation in Northern Virginia has been rapid and dramatic, and Obama came out of Northern Virginia with a margin of [213,000] votes, and that is very hard to overcome," said Ken Billingsley, director of demographics and information for the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. "In Prince William, the change has already occurred, and I am not the least bit surprised that Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg are moving in that direction."

.....

According to exit polls, Hispanics made up 5 percent of the statewide electorate this year, almost matching their overall share of the population. Hispanics in Virginia favored Obama over Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee, by an almost 2 to 1 margin. If Republicans hope to recover from their losses in time for the 2009 races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates, their candidates will have to find a way to overwhelmingly win the white vote and make inroads with blacks and Hispanics.

"I, as a Southerner, understand that for the Republican Party to win presidential elections in the future we can no longer be the party of the deep South and Prairie Midwest," said Trey Walker, a South Carolina native who oversaw McCain's Virginia campaign. "If we don't start appealing to [minorities], we are going to continue to lose." (bold added for emphasis). 

Whether the Republican Party can start to speak effectively to the multi-racial America of the 21st century will be one of the most important questions in American politics in the coming years.  I think this job will be much harder than many understand for the foundation of the modern GOP - and the key to their success in recent decades - has been the exploitation of racial grievence.   Willie Horton, welfare queens, tax and spend, deporting undocumenteds - it has all been about exploiting white fears of the racial other in American life.  As I wrote earlier this year in an essay, On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy, demographic changes in America were making this type of politics a 20th anachronism whether Barack Obama became President or not.  With him as leader, there will also now be a moral challenge to this core play in the GOP playbook - for how will this society, this culture, allow the dog-whistle, wink and nod racial politics of the Southern Strategy era with a bi-racial man as President?  

While you will hear many Republicans echo Mr. Walker above, and call for their Party to get right with America's emerging demographic realities, I don't know if they understand how fundamental a rethink this is going to require.  Just three years ago the GOP House passed a bill calling for the arrest and deportation of 5 percent of the American work force - 10-12 million people, 10-12 million largely Hispanic people.  How they move from this politics of Nixon to a politics more fitting of Lincoln is going to be a transformation remarkable to behold - and almost unimaginable today. 

In September, the Pew Hispanic Center's report on the overall state of Latinos found that Latinos were in a significantly worse economic condition and reported a decline in their general well-being. We have continued to see how the economic crisis is hitting Latinos particularly harshly, and today we find that the unemployment rate for Latinos has sky-rocketed to 8.8% in October. The overall national unemployment rate for October reported today is 6.5%, with 240,000 jobs cut during the month. Hispanics have been particularly affected, as the number of unemployed Hispanics went up in September to 1.72 million, and in October Hispanics comprised 1.96 million of the 10 million people unemployed nationally.

One more nail in the coffin of the GOP's southern strategy: Virginia goes blue in 2008. NDN has long discussed the impending downfall of the Southern Strategy as the demography of traditionally "red" states changes to reflect the 21st century composition of the country.  Before last night, Virginia had voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1952, except in 1964. This year Virginia's Latino voters and immigrant voters played a critical role in winning the state for Democrats. There are about 150,000 registered Latino voters in Virginia (almost twice the number from 2004), and let's not forget that Jim Webb defeated Sen. Allen in 2006 by 10,000 votes. Hispanics comprise 3% of total eligible voters, but last night they accounted for 5% of total voters in Virginia - a state that Obama won by 5% (or close to 155,000 votes). This is another example of Hispanics voting at a higher rate than the general electorate. Could Virginia,with its growing Hispanic and immigrant population, be the next Nevada?

There's always a lot happening here at NDN, so in case you missed anything, here's what we've been up to in the last week:

NDN's Election Analysis - With the race drawing to a close, NDN has focused its political analysis this week. Simon had a popular essay on the Huffington Post last Friday: Keys to the Fall: Obama Leads, McCain Stumbles. Simon reprised this argument with a blog post on Saturday: Still No Evidence that McCain is in This Thing. Writing again on Monday, Simon speculated: Could This Be A Ten Point Race?

Yesterday, we released a compendium of NDN’s best political analysis from the past several years. These memos and essays cover the main arguments coming from NDN: The end of the conservative ascendancy and the dawn of a "new politics," the emergence of new voting groups like the Millennials and Hispanics, the power that a whole array of new media and technology tools are unleashing into our democracy, and old-fashioned number crunching and analysis on everything from the role of independents, the economy and video in the elections. We've also included some of our analysis from the election of 2006, a day that saw the end of the conservative era, and set the stage for tomorrow's election, which will mark the beginning of a new one.

Millennial Makeover Authors Join NDN as Fellows - NDN is excited to announce that Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, authors of the best-selling book Millennial Makeover, have joined NDN as Fellows. Morley and Mike are two of the most insightful and prescient interpreters of the profound demographic shifts taking place in our country today. NDN has a long history of working with Morley and Mike; they co-authored a seminal 2006 paper, "Politics of the Millennial Generation," for our affiliate, the New Politics Institute, and have spoken at several NDN events, including one in March about the Millennial transformation of American politics. They are an important and tremendously impressive addition to the NDN Team. To read bios of Morley and Mike, please click here.

NDN has long argued that Millennials, along with Hispanics, are becoming core elements of a new, sustainable 21st century progressive coalition. To learn more about how these demographics are changing the face of American politics, read our reports, "Hispanics Rising II" and "The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation."

NDN Breaking Through - NDN has been a major player in shaping the narrative surrounding the 2008 election. Here's a recap of our press from the last few weeks.

Simon's election analysis was recently featured in the Financial Times (11/4), the Arizona Republic (11/4), and The Hill (11/3), on NPR (11/4/08), and in DemFromCT's daily poll roundup on DailyKos (11/1), which linked to his front-page Huffington Post (10/31) article, as well as in Newsday (10/27), the Arizona Republic (10/26), and the Huffington Post (10/28, again). He was quoted in the VIBE cover story, "The Tipping Point" (10/14) about the historic implications of the rise of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. Dan Balz quoted Simon in the Washington Post after the third and final presidential debate (10/16). Simon also provided analysis of the election in the Independent (10/22), Reuters (10/22, as well as here on 10/17), and in several more featured posts on the Huffington Post (here, 10/21, here, 10/22, and here, 10/17). His election commentary also aired on radio stations across the country (10/22), and he was featured on WAMU's "Power Breakfast." Finally, Andres was featured in the Wall Street Journal (10/31) speaking about the increasing importance of early voting.

Our work on Hispanic issues has garnered widespread attention in the last few weeks. Our recent polling on immigration reform was featured in a front page article in the Wall Street Journal (11/1). Ron Brownstein quoted Simon about demographic shifts on MSNBC's "Road to the White House." Simon hit on similar themes involving the Hispanic electorate and the country's changing electoral map in the San Francisco Chronicle (10/26), Bloomberg (10/26), the San Francisco Chronicle (10/13), Bloomberg (10/17), and Hispanic Trending (10/9). Andres also talked about the importance of the Hispanic electorate in the Latino Journal (10/12), and our recent immigration poll of battleground states was featured in a diary on DailyKos (10/16).

On the green front, Michael was featured in the Council on Foreign Relations (10/30) discussing energy prices and cutting carbon emissions, and had a featured post about dealing with climate change in a troubled economy in the Huffington Post's Green section (10/22). Rob was featured in Grist (10/28) speaking about clean infrastructure and a second economic stimulus.

NDN also remained a strong voice on the economy: Rob was quoted recently in a big story in the New York Times (10/22) and the International Herald-Tribune (10/21) about the Treasury backing the consolidation of banks, was featured in the Philadelphia Inquirer (10/14), and had this excellent quote in the Washington Times (10/17).

Finally, NDN also made several TV appearances recently. Our event with Simon and Joe Trippi was broadcast on C-SPAN, Simon went on BBC World News to discuss the election (relevant section begins at 1:40), and Andres appeared on several Nevada TV channels, including Fox and ABC, condemning illegal voter suppression tactics targeting Hispanic voters.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama maintains his focus on the economy in two new TV spots, "Rearview Mirror" and "Something." Personally, after last night's extremely well-produced 30-minute spot, I find these ads a little underwhelming, but take a look and decide for yourself: