Key 2008

Weekly Update On Immigration

FEWER PEOPLE ENTERING U.S. ILLEGALLY - In a piece in the New York Times, Ginger Thompson wrote about the latest report released by the Pew Hispanic Center, the report indicates fewer people are trying to enter the United States illegally and that there has been no growth over the last year in the number of illegal immigrants living here. The study, based on census data, showed that for the first time in nearly a decade, the number of people entering the country illegally was lower than the number arriving through legal channels. The decline helps prove what has already been said in other major studies: the rate of undocumented migration does not respond to enforcement measures, but rather economic incentives. Currently, Hispanics are reporting the highest decrease in economic well-being, according to another Pew Survey. The AP, several other publications and press in Latin America have commented on the data from latest Pew Report as well. The L.A. Times La Plaza estimates that Zacatecas and other states in Mexico are preparing for the return of about 350,000 countrymen from the U.S.

THOUSANDS OF IMMIGRANTS RETURN TO OAXACA, MEXICO FROM THE U.S. - Octavio Vélez of La Jornada reports, an estimated 24,700 Oaxacans who were in the U.S. have already returned to Mexico between July and September of this year due to having lost their jobs as a result of the hit taken by the construction industry during this economic crisis. Most of these workers had been working in California, Texas, Illinois, and New York.

The economic crisis and the decline of immigrants in the U.S. has also caused a dramatic drop in remittances to Latin America. Central banks from Mexico to Brazil have projected the biggest declines in remittances from the United States in more than 10 years. Governor Leonel Godoy, of the state of Michoacan, Mexico, made a request to the Budget Committee of the lower chamber of the Mexican Congress for higher levels of appropriations in order to maintain the economic stability of the state, as it is likely that the amount of remittances from the U.S. to Michoacan will continue to decrease.

DISPARITY IN ASYLUM APPLICATION PROCESS - Ketty Rodriguez of El Nuevo Herald writes about a recent GAO report that found marked disparity in the way applications for asylum are handled by different USCIS offices, and the bearing this lack of uniformity has on the speed of the application process and likelihood to get approved.

TPS EXTENDED - Temporary Protected Status has been extended for another 18 months for Hondurans and Nicaraguans living in the U.S., saving them from likely deportation. USCIS announced that this extension of status is effective from June 6, 2009 through July 5, 2010. Along with people from El Salvador, those under TPS have to apply to obtain legal permanent residence before the expiration of their TPS status, otherwise they can suffer deportation.

SENATORS PUSH FOR IMMIGRATION RAID GUIDELINES - With federal authorities stepping up immigration enforcement raids across the country, Sens. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts and Robert Menendez of New Jersey are sponsoring a bill to protect the rights of U.S.citizens and legal residents who get caught up in them.

CAMPAIGN TO CHANGE PUBLIC OPINION ON CIR - Local and national business groups are funding a media campaign in Arizona and three other states to convince voters that this country has done enough to secure the border and now needs to legalize the 12 million or more undocumented immigrants and consider allowing more foreigners into this country.

IMMIGRANTS ABOUT TO BECOME CITIZENS LEFT OUT IN THE COLD - 1,241 Houston-area citizenship applicants who saw their naturalization ceremony canceled last month because of Hurricane Ike. Officials with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services initially rescheduled the ceremony for Oct. 29, well after the Oct. 6 voter registration deadline. U.S. District Judge Lynn Hughes, the administrative judge for the Houston federal courts, and U.S. Rep. Gene Green, got on the phone with agency officials and USCIS found a way to hold the emergency ceremony. But not all those on the list to be at the ceremony were informed of the change in schedule - Syed Zubair was not called and so he will miss out on one of the most important rights of every American:"The big thing with citizenship," he says. "is you have a say." Thanks to the federal bureaucracy, he'll have to wait four more years to be heard, at least in a presidential election.

POLITICO: A dog that hasn't barked - Great post by Ben Smith:

I noticed, putting up this post, that I haven't used the "immigration" category on this blog for months, but had meant to pull out a bit from my story last night to show just how much this element of the race has confounded expectations:

When Obama said last fall that he would support states'decisions to issue drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, Hillary Clinton's pollster Mark Penn told her staff that Obama might have just lost himself the election.

"We thought he was going to get killed over it," recalled a Clinton staffer, who said Penn's polling portrayed it as so "lethal" that it could cost Obama the reliably Democratic state of California.

In fact? Crickets.

On that note, the Immigration Policy Center (IPC) has put together A Candidate's Guide to Immigration along with a two-page document of Answers to the Toughest Questions - to help candidates effectively counter and clarify the myths and ambiguities associated with immigration. NDN has similarly highlighted that the immigration system is broken and it can not be fixed until the terms of the immigration debate shift towards a rational conversation aimed at achieving workable and effective comprehensive immigration reform - we hope candidates use this important guide.

Candidates Woo Largest Spanish-speaking Audience in the Country, Part I

Yesterday, U.S. Sen. John McCain appeared on the Sunday political show Al Punto, hosted by Jorge Ramos on the Spanish-language network, Univision. Mr. Ramos noticed the absence of any discussion on Latin America and on tough issues, such as immigration, during the debates and asked Sen. McCain about his positions.

ON IMMIGRATION - Sen. McCain avoided responding to the tough questions asked by Mr. Ramos, but when he did not, he gave this Spanish-speaking/Hispanic audience very different answers from what he tells crowds of English-speaking conservatives.

Below is an outline of Jorge Ramos's questions on immigration, Sen. McCain's answers during this interview, and prior statements.

JR: Do you agree with the immigration raids that are separating thousands of Hispanic families?
JM: "We must have enforcement....on two occasions I stood before the Senate, knowing that my Party was against me, that the members of my party were against me, and spoke for comprehensive immigration reform." "I am committed to comprehensive reform, but we have to have enforcement, too". McCain called for "humane" and "compassionate" enforcement, and a temporary worker program as well.

The truth is that ever since the McCain-Kennedy bill in 2006, Sen. McCain has never again fought his party on this issue, as he claims. McCain has been constant in his lack of support for immigration reform.

When not speaking to Hispanics: McCain on immigration at CPAC - advocating for enforcement-only; "Secure our borders first...and only after we've achieve widespread consensus that our borders are secure would we address other aspects of the problem..."

John McCain would not sign his own legislation, if it came up now:

JR: If you were president, would you suspend the immigration raids until immigration reform passed?
JM: Well, if we know that some of those immigrants come and commit crimes...
JR: But they are not - they're Hispanic families and people who are not criminals or terrorists...
JM: ....First, my priority would be comprehensive reform, where we left off...then we'll solve this, I can't say we should stop arresting those who come in illegally but we can treat them with compassion.

Why McCain wants to appear on Spanish-language television, attempting to seem for immigration reform:

JR: In key battleground states, like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Hispanics aren't supporting you - why not?
JM: We're having good results and we're improving. Obama hasn't travelled to a single Latin American country. I come from a border state, I know [Hispanics]. I got 70% of the Hispanic vote in my last reelection bid....I'm very confident.

Yes, but only 21% of Hispanics voted for McCain in the AZ Presidential primary (AZ has a closed primary). McCain recognizes:

JM: The debate on immigration hurt me and I fought against my party, I fought the members of my party because I think we have to have comprehensive immigration reform. And as a President I'll achieve it, it will be one of my top priorities as president.

The truth: Sen. McCain did not fight his party at all on immigration - that's why his popularity has fallen so dramatically among Hispanics. How can Sen. McCain allege that reform would be his priority as President if he didn't even get his party to include reform in the Republican platform? Instead, the Republican platform is one that has anti-immigrant zealot, Tom Tancredo, saying he's "very pleased" with it, and that he got "basically all that" he wanted. The Republican platform on immigration does not allow for reform, its aim is "to deport criminal aliens without delay", and says: "we oppose amnesty...rejection of enmasse legalization is especially appropriate...".

 

Ad Wars: En Español

And the war continues...Barack Obama seems to be really ramping up his attacks on the air against John McCain, and he continues to do it in Spanish with his latest radio ad, called Impuestos, or "Taxes," airing in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, as well as Florida. And a television ad by the same name airing in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, as well as Florida.

**Update: The day after the release of this ad in Spanish, an English language version of the ad was released.

Translation of the ads:

Impuestos (Radio Version)

[ANNOUNCER:]
On taxes and the economy, who's on your side?

John McCain pledges hundreds of billions in corporate tax breaks for big corporations. But for 100 million households - nothing.

McCain's health plan - even worse - will tax benefits for the first time ever. Rather than helping us, John McCain's plan punishes us.

And the tax credit McCain promises will go straight to the pockets of insurance companies.

These are the facts about his plan that John McCain and the Republicans want to hide from the public.

But, with Barack Obama, taxes will be cut for 95% of the county's working families. Period. Not one penny more of taxes for any family earning less than a quarter million dollars.

Barack Obama and the Democrats know that working people and the middle class are the ones that most need relief during this crisis.

Barack Obama is on our side.

[BO:] I'm Barack Obama, candidate for President, and I approve this message.

[VO:] PAID FOR BY OBAMA FOR AMERICA AND THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE.

Impuestos (TV Ad Version)

[ANNOUNCER:]
On taxes, who's on your side?

John McCain pledges hundreds of billions in corporate tax breaks. Billions for oil companies. But for 100 million households - nothing.

And McCain's health plan will tax benefits for the first time ever.

Barack Obama. No tax hikes on any families earning less than a quarter million dollars.

Barack Obama and the Democrats...for the change we need.

[BO:] I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

 

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Calming the Nation's Nerves: Nothing to Fear More than Fear Itself

Congress tried late last week to stall the financial crisis by pledging to spend $700 billion on devalued securities held by financial institutions, and by Monday morning, it was clear that the pledge wasn’t enough to reassure investors or restart lending.

Instead, a classic panic has set in here and around much of the world as public confidence in banks, other financial institutions and the markets themselves has nosedived; at the same time, banks and other financial institutions are wary of loaning money to potential borrowers. This panicked mindset threatens the economy more today than the continuing turmoil in the housing and financial markets. 

We must now recreate baseline confidence before we can repair the continuing damage to our financial and housing markets.  

Financial and broader economic panics thrive on a combination of huge and unexpected setbacks and a serious absence of information. They unfold when people face enormous uncertainty about matters vital to them, such as the value and security of their homes,  retirement accounts and college savings. Panics thrive when people see everyone else, including those with the power and position to manage such weighty matters, struggling with the same uncertainty. 

People feel threatened and powerless to do anything, not because they have no options, but because they have to evaluate or choose among those options, and they worry that more unexpected calamities could overtake whatever course they decide upon. That’s where tens of millions of Americans – and Europeans and Asians as well – have found themselves this week. They don’t understand why the value of their homes and investments has plummeted so suddenly, and they see that those ostensibly in charge of the economy in Washington and on Wall Street have little grip on this as well. The result is that spending and investment are shutting down, dragging the entire economy into what seems very likely to be the worst downturn since the 1930s. 

The remedy to this panic is information, which only the nation’s leaders can generate and demonstrate they understand. For example, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC should have legions of examiners working around the clock to re-audit the conditions of all major financial institutions, starting with commercial banks. The Treasury and Fed could then report to the public on each institution’s financial health and their confidence in its continuing financial health. The largest group would still be judged healthy; another group could be designated as worth watching, with measures to help it move to the first group; those in trouble would be identified with a plan of action to help them recover, if possible. Without this information, most people have been panicking that almost every institution and every investment might well be in serious trouble.  

This program won’t solve the capitalization crisis across financial institutions, much less the crisis gripping housing markets, which itself has driven so much of the current upheaval. But it would staunch the panic as investors, business owners and families come to feel that they finally know where the problems lie and what the government and nation’s business leaders will do to address them.

At the same time, our leaders can finally begin to address seriously the housing and capitalization crises in an economic environment in which businesses and people will be able respond reasonably and predictably.

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Your Guide to the VP Debate

As the hour of the Vice Presidential debate approaches, the web has been flooded by all manner of analysis, punditry and bloggery (plus the occasional piece of news). We're here to offer you a guide  to the madness so you know what to expect and can impress your date during pre-debate cocktails.

The big question is: How will Sarah Palin fare?  Her previous public appearances have been mixed. At the Republican National Convention, she killed. As Sam Harris wrote in Newsweek, her speech was extraordinarily effective political communication.

Since that day she has been in constant decline. First came her interview with Charlie Gibson and the "Bush Doctrine" gaffe, then over the past week she's taken major blows as her damning serialized interview with Katie Couric has aired. After double lampoonings on SNL, Palin is on the verge of becoming nothing more than a laughing stock to many. See Simon's link to TPM for video of Sarah's greatest hits.

But debates are a different game, and Palin has had success in the past. The LA Times reports that she ought not be underestimated: She keeps it simple and is irresistably charming. The NY Times, likewise, says that though she's often unclear in her answers, she appears confident and wins viewers. This debate could be her chance to recover some of the ground she's lost.

The Obama camp will not be underestimating her. Campaign manager David Plouffe called Palin a "terrific debater," and said he expects she'll perform well against Joe Biden. Nobody knows her skills better than Andrew Halcro, who faced her when they both ran for governor of Alaska. He describes her as a "master of the nonanswer," but says that if she can "fill the room with her presence," she may do well. Even Joe Biden has said that she looks "pretty doggone confident."

Biden comes into the debate with some concerns of his own. As the Washington Post wrote yesterday, "letting Biden be Biden" has occasional downsides: He has a freewheeling style, and when he runs with it, he can make mistakes. The NY Times also discusses his "legendary loquatiousness," making the point that, debating a woman, Biden runs the danger of looking like a bully. According to the Financial Times, the Obama campaign is training Biden to avoid verbal missteps.

There has been controversy surrounding debate host Gwen Ifill. Because she is currently writing a book about Barack Obama, among other new black politicians, some Republican pundits have cried bias.  Marc Ambinder thinks this is nonsense, and Ifill herself has dismissed the concerns.

George Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, who faced off in the first male vs. female VP debate in 1984, reminisce about their experience and offer their thoguhts the Palin-Biden matchup.

Michael Tomasky of the Guardian gives his forecast for tomorrow night in a fun video.

Roger Simon at Politico provides 10 ready-made answers to Sarah Palin. Respond to any question with ease!

And if it's all getting too serious for you, Newsweek invites you to play VP bingo.

NDN’s Analysis of Hispanic Voters in Florida Increasingly Relevant

In 2000, Cuban-Americans represented 70 percent of Florida's Hispanic electorate. Today they make up less than half of the Latino electorate in that state, largely attributable to a large influx of new voters originally from Puerto Rico, Colombia, Venezuela and other Central and South American countries. The result: Florida's Hispanic demographic is increasingly reflective of the transformation the Hispanic community has undergone across the country - increasingly diverse and not as party-loyal. As a result, both political parties are working to win over what Newsweek called the "Latino mix" in a piece today by Arian Campo-Flores. NDN has analyzed the trend of Florida's Hispanic population becoming more diverse and less affiliated with the Republican party for years, and conducted a major poll in Florida in 2006.

It is Hispanics who make Florida increasingly relevant this year. By all accounts, U.S. Sen. John McCain would not have won the Florida primary - and thus would probably not have been his party's presidential nominee - had he not won the 54% of the Hispanic vote that he won in the Republican primary election, while he only won 33% of the white vote and took that election with 36% of the vote overall. Thus, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is fighting in Florida, just today President Bill Clinton - loved by Hispanic Democrats and many overall - was campaigning for him in the state. As explained in Newsweek by our friend and collaborator, Sergio Bendixen:

"Now they need to have a domestic message"-terrain that favors Democrats these days. If he manages to capitalize on the opportunity, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama could outdo John Kerry's performance in 2004, when the Massachusetts senator captured 44 percent of Florida's Latino vote. "If [Obama] gets 55 percent, then he would pretty much ensure winning the state," says Sergio Bendixen, a pollster for the New Democratic Network (NDN) and expert in Hispanic public opinion."

And that is the relevance of the Latino Mix. As NDN explains at length in Hispanics Rising II, party ID among Hispanics can change very quickly, and this election in particular does not favor the party in the White House. Republican anti-immigrant campaigns have been perceived as anti-Hispanic, Latinos have the highest rate of unemployment as a result of this economic crisis, and the latest - now minorities are being blamed by right-wing conservatives for the housing crisis. 2008 primary exit polls showed a 66% increase in Hispanic turnout in Democratic primaries and Hispanic party ID became 72% Democrat, while in 2004 it was closer to 60%. Our latest polling data shows that the Presidential race among Hispanics in Florida is in a dead heat - 42% favoring McCain and 42% favoring Obama.

The question remains - as Florida's Hispanic electorate grows and becomes more complex, who benefits? I would say Hispanics do. The reality of a more complex demographic is that to win Florida, John McCain and Barack Obama will have to do so based on the strength of non-Cuban Hispanic support.

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