Election 2008

Hispanics Hand it to Obama

Obama's most important lead after last night's debate may have come among Hispanic voters, who favored him by a 50-36 percent margin according to the national Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey of undecided debate-watchers. The candidates were evenly matched among white voters, with McCain holding a 49-46 percent advantage - equal to the three point margin of error. African Americans picked Obama as the winner by 88-10 percent. You can trace Hispanics' support of the presidential candidates through Gallup's weekly poll - the poll shows Obama with a consistent comfortable margin of at least 20-25 points ahead of McCain. The latest Gallup poll shows Obama ahead by a 60-31 percent advantage.

Candidates Woo Largest Spanish-speaking Audience in the Country, Part II

More on John McCain's interview with Univision anchor, Jorge Ramos. Univision has the largest Spanish-language audience in the U.S.

ON LATIN AMERICA- When asked about the prospect of Russia providing Venezuela with training and nuclear arms, and whether he would rule out U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, Sen. McCain responded that he definitely would (keep in mind all those Florida voters who are originally from Venezuela or still have family and ties to the country). Sen. McCain stated his priorities regarding Latin America as: 1) U.S. independence from Venezuelan oil, as there is evidence that Venezuela is helping aid the FARC in Colombia, and 2) passage of a Free Trade Agreement with Colombia.

Last weekend, Barack Obama and Joe Biden appeared with Jorge Ramos on Al Punto. By contrast, when asked about Latin America, Sen. Obama appeared to understand that the United States' relationship with the region has so much more at stake than merely trade agreements and foreign aid, "Trade agreements cannot serve as a substitute to sensible policy...It's not about just sending money [to the region] and forgetting about it...If this hollow policy continues, our children will be in danger...we should be in contact at this critical time." Sen. Biden noted, "..this Administration has no policy towards Russia, or towards Latin America for that matter."

ON OTHER ISSUES - On immigration, Barack Obama said during his interview with Ramos that in order to truly secure the border, we also need to go after unscrupulous employers and to provide legalization to all the undocumented in order to bring them out of the shadows. On the election:

JR: Will Hispanics decide this election? What do you think of Latino voters?
BO: "...The states with the largest Hispanic populations will certainly have a decisive role during this election....Hispanics could be the largest group of voters in New Mexico....I do think Hispanics are going to turn out and vote because they will decide whether they want to continue 8 years of failed policies or not...so I have no doubt that this election will turn out record numbers of Latinos and voters in general."
JR: So will Hispanics decide this election?
JB: In some states, like Florida, yes....in my state for example, small state of Delaware, has among the largest rates of growth of states on the east coast, the population has increased 25% over the last 17 years, and a full quarter of that growth is comprised of Hispanics in my state.

Jorge Ramos also posed a few tough questions to Sen. McCain:

JR: Governor Palin, she said Sen. Obama worked from an ex-terrorist's living room. But she works for the campaign right? So I take it she had your approval to say those things, are you suggesting that [Sen. Obama] tolerates terrorism?
JM: No. We just believe the American people should know more about this relationship.

**Sarah Palin was scheduled to appear with John McCain, but she reportedly had a scheduling conflict. Sen. McCain did say that she will be on Al Punto soon.

Battle on the Immigration Issue Continues

And the immigration battle continues. After U.S. Senator John McCain's last ad on immigration, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama responds in kind.  Chris Cillizza reports that overall, Obama is outspending McCain 3 to 1 on television.

NDN has long advocated on the importance of immigration as a motivating issue for Hispanics, regardless of whether they are native or foreign born - as demonstrated by this back and forth. With a significant percentage of Latino voters in key battleground states, the candidates are working to win over this important voting demographic by speaking on the issue of immigration. In this ad, Obama taps into the damaged Republican brand among Hispanics, linking John McCain to his party and to the GOP's hateful anti-immigrant attacks and the pressure that party exerted to halt immigration reform. The ad is called, "Otra Vez lo Mismo", or "Here We Go Again".

The translation of the script of the ad:

[Announcer:]
Here We Go Again...
McCain is still manipulating and lying on the issue of immigration.
He wants to hide the fact he's the one who turned his back on us...
[CNN video]
McCain caved to the anti-immigrant crowd
And, along with the Republicans, betrayed our community.
If John McCain is not willing to stand up to his own Republican Party, how will he defend us in the White House?

 

 

Hispanic Heritage Month 2008

Every year the United States takes a time out from September 15-October 15 to recognize the contributions of Hispanics in the United States as part of Hispanic Heritage Month. Hispanics are now recognized as the largest minority in the U.S. - the Census estimates that by 2042 one in four persons will be of Hispanic origin. As this year's Hispanic Heritage Month kicked off this week, it becomes clear that an unprecedented number of Latino voters could decide this year's election, Latinos are increasingly represented in government and industry, Latinos are a growing force in the media - as evidenced by the launch of shows like "Agenda" and "Al Punto" on Spanish language networks, and Hispanics are also becoming web and technology users in rapidly growing numbers.

For these reasons and more, the Pew Hispanic Center reported this week on a survey it conducted on the overall state of Latinos. The report reflects how Hispanics are bearing much of the current economic crisis, combined with suffering increased instances of discrimination.

Half (50%) of all Latinos overall (native and foreign born) say that the situation of Latinos in this country is worse now than it was a year ago, according to this nationwide survey of 2,015 Hispanic adults (higher than the average for non-latinos). Fully 63% of Latino immigrants say that the situation of Latinos has worsened over the past year. In 2007, just 42% of all adult Hispanic immigrants - and just 33% of all Hispanic adults - said the same thing. These increasingly downbeat assessments come at a time when the Hispanic community in this country--numbering approximately 46 million, or 15.4% of the total U.S. population--has been hit the hardest by rising unemployment.

Due mainly to the crisis in the housing and construction industry, the unemployment rate for Hispanics in the U.S. rose to 7.3% in the first quarter of 2008, well above the 4.7% rate for all non-Hispanics, and well above the 6.1% rate for Hispanics during the same period last year. As recently as the end of 2006, the gap between those two rates had shrunk to an historic low of 0.5 percentage points--4.9% for Latinos compared with 4.4% for non-Latinos, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The spike in Hispanic unemployment has hit immigrants especially hard. For the first time since 2003, the unemployment rate for Latinos not born in the United States was higher, at 7.5 percent, than the rate for native-born Latinos, at 6.9 percent, the report found. Latinos make up 14.2% of the U.S. labor force, or roughly 22 million people.

In addition to the economy, issues like immigration, access to health care, and discrimination continue to be of concern to Hispanics and to Hispanic voters. In the Pew survey, one-in-ten Hispanic adults - native-born U.S. citizens (8%) and immigrants (10%) alike - report that in the past year the police or other authorities have stopped them and asked them about their immigration status. Some Latinos are xperiencing other difficulties because of their ethnicity. One-in-seven(15%)say that they have had trouble in the past year finding or keeping a job because they are Latino. One-in-ten (10%) report the same about finding or keeping housing.

On the question of immigration enforcement, the Pew Center's research demonstrates the same data NDN found through our polling on immigration, released last week. Latinos disapprove of current enforcement-only measures - more than four-in-five Hispanics (81%) say that immigration enforcement should be left mainly to the federal authorities rather than the local police and 76% disapprove of workplace raids. Two-thirds (68%) of Latinos who worry a lot that they or someone close to them may be deported say that Latinos' situation in the country today is worse than it was a year ago, as do 63% of Latinos who have experienced job difficulties because of their ethnicity and 71% of Latinos who report housing difficulties because of their ethnicity.

Most Hispanics in the U.S. are native born, i.e., U.S. citizens legally not susceptible to deportation, therefore the fact that most Hispanics worry about raids, immigration, and even facing possible deportation reflects how the existing reckless "enforcement-only" policies are impacting not only foreign Hispanics, but U.S. citizens.

NDN has a history writing and speaking about the Hispanic community as one of the great American demographic stories of the 21st century, recognizing that it will be hard for any political party to build a 21st century political majority without this fast-growing electorate. Hispanics have become one of the most volatile and contested swing voting blocs in American politics, and they are responding to this attention. As reported in Hispanics Rising II, an analysis of the Hispanic electorate and their motivation, Hispanic immigrants are becoming increasingly involved, as reflected by the data released this week by the Immigration Policy Center, demonstrating a spike in citizenship applications. Immigrants want to be U.S. citizens, they want to apply for citizenship, often having to overcome virtually impossible obstacles to be able to pay the obscenely high application filing fees.

Therefore, political candidates will do well to pay attention to the many challenges facing Hispanics today. At the onset of Hispanic Heritage Month this week, both Presidential candidates released statements praising Hispanics' contributions to American society and their military service. The difference between the two statements is that Barack Obama also called for comprehensive immigration reform. On the other hand, John McCain didn't mention it. This is curious because polling for the last 3 or 4 years, including the latest polls conducted by NDN, consistently shows that immigration is of top concern for Hispanic voters.

Matt Damon on The Palin Ultimatum

And just for fun - I think Matt Damon brings up a good point.

I love the comment a VERY conservative friend of mine made when I sent him this video: "Caring or quoting what celebrities think about anything is usually cause for a punch line, but in this case, he happens to be correct."

His comment reflects how during this election, unlike any other, people are switching parties, switching preferences, and reflecting over a broader array of issues that are less substantive but no less relevant - issues like race and age in a Presidential election, the role of a Vice Presidential nominee - much more than in the past.

 

 

 

 

NDN Releases Major Findings on Immigration

Today, NDN released polls conducted among all voters in four key battleground states - Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - that show strong support for comprehensive immigration reform. As Simon and Courtney mentioned, the poll was conducted in key swing states that also have a large Hispanic Population. Additionally, the states in question are reflective of the cross-section of Hispanics in the United States, with Florida's Hispanic population consisting mainly of foreign-born Hispanics from the Caribbean and South America, Nevada with mostly foreign-born Hispanics from Mexico, and New Mexico and Colorado with largely native-born Hispanics.

For an in-depth look at how the public views the immigration debate in these four states, please view our full Immigration Survey Report here.

As stated in the Executive Summary, our findings indicate that in each of these four states, voters:

  • Overwhelmingly support Comprehensive Immigration Reform as:
    1. Strengthening border security
    2. Strengthening interior enforcement through an employer verification plan
    3. New visa program for 200,000 workers annually
    4. Increasing the number of family visas available
    5. Path to earned citizenship for the undocumented once they meet certain requirements.
  • Have a positive view of undocumented immigrants, believing that they have come here to work and seek a better life, are not taking jobs from American citizens and are not interested in receiving public handouts.
  • Blame the federal government and businesses - not immigrants - for the broken immigration system. This tells us that the anti-immigrant message of the Lou Dobbs and Rush Limbaughs of the world actually doesn't resonate with the large majority of voters.

The data also shows:

  • The issue of immigration remains an important issue to voters, particularly Hispanics, and Democrats and Barack Obama are more trusted to handle the immigration issue than U.S. Sen. John McCain and the Republican Party.
  • The dramatic swing of Hispanic voters to Senator Obama in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - with a total of 46 electoral votes - has helped turn these previously red states, which were critical to Bush's narrow victory in 2004, into competitive swing states this year.
  • But in each state, 14 percent to 20 percent of the Hispanic electorate remains undecided, which translates into a two percent to six percent of the statewide vote in each state - a percentage significant enough to tip dead-even states into one camp or the other.
  • The Hispanic vote may very well determine the Presidential winner in these four states. Given how close the election is, this may determine the outcome of the Presidential race itself.

Therefore, the data proves that the paranoia over the prospect of dealing with the broken immigration system due to the emotional nature of the debate as framed by anti-immigrant activists is unfounded. An overhaul of our current immigration system is not only the right thing to do, there is an urgent need for it and the data demonstrates that there is overwhelming support to enact it. Enforcement-only is not an immigration policy. We need to fix the entire broken system. Just this morning, USA TODAY's Emily Bazar wrote a story reporting how the higher application fees at ICE are actually discouraging immigrants from seeking citizenship. Even Mark Krikorian, Executive Director of the research center for a series of anti-immigrant hate groups, CIS, which calls for reduced immigration agrees fees are, "probably too high" and should reflect only processing costs.

When it comes to immigration reform, our data matches the data from the many polls conducted on this issue for the last three years: politically, immigration is actually a positive and not a negative because voters want action, and from a policy standpoint there is a consensus to enact it.

 

 

 

McCain Don't Know Much About Geography

As Simon has commented, U.S. Sen. John McCain's ads exceedingly reflect a new Rovian approach to this election, and he's not limiting himself to attacking in one language...this latest ad in Spanish, called "The World According to Barack Obama" intends to promote the notion among Hispanic voters that according to Barack Obama, Latin American countries somehow "don't count" in the world because he didn't discuss Latin America during his trip to EUROPE ("but entire nations were forgotten.."), by asking voters: "and where is Latin America?", "and what about Latinos?", "Did he forget about us?" The ad is flawed in that Barack Obama's trip through Europe, and his speech in Berlin, was intended to discuss issues related to joint U.S. and EU policy.  As Jake and I were discussing, there's this thing called the Monroe Doctrine that would make it unseemingly to say the least for the U.S. to invite European nations to strategize over Latin American policy. But since when have Rovian tactics had any regard for honesty and accuracy?  

“La Raza Cósmica”

San Diego, CA - "La raza cósmica" así se refirió Barack Obama al público Hispano a quién enfáticamente le dijo, "No se equivoquen: La comunidad Latina tiene estas elecciones en sus manos," durante la conferencia anual de NCLR. Sí, el voto Hispano tiene variaciones, es un voto crucial y los comentarios que yo escucho del público demuestran que - por primera vez - saben lo que valen. La gente aquí esta emocionada y cada vez les es más facil tener demandas y expectativas de los candidatos con respecto a los temas de importancia porque saben que su voto juega un papel más central en la política Estadounidense que en cualquier elección anterior. Como Andrés resaltó durante su entrevista con Maria Peña de EFE: el que se gane el apoyo de los Hispanos gana la Casa Blanca.

El uso de "la raza cósmica" implica que el Senador Obama entiende que la comunidad Hispana tiene una rica variedad de colores y creencias. El tema de inmigración sigue siendo la preocupación primordial de los que asisten a la conferencia, más que nada debido al impacto que tienen las redadas en la comunidad Hispana. Ayer también escuché a muchos elogiar al Sen. Obama por haber discutido temas además de inmigración en más detalle. El reto ya está - dado el poco apoyo que tiene la postura del Sen. McCain con respecto al tema de inmigración, se esperaba que su discurso se enfocaría en temas económicos y demás, en vez de inmigración. Sin embargo, el Sen. Obama le ganó -  ayer tomó la oportunidad para presentar una nueva propuesta para apoyar a pequeñas y medianas empresas a fin de que puedan pagar el gasto de seguro médico para empleados.  Además, se enfocó en temas de economía, educación, salud, veteranos de guerra, y recibió un enorme aplauso cuando atacó las redadas de inmigración, y además, criticó a John McCain por haber "abandonado su postura valiente" en cuanto al tema de la reforma migratoria.

Sin duda, le será dificil al Senador McCain superar este discurso. El Sen. McCain también ha reconocido las diferencias dentro del voto Hispano, y esta luchando para ganarse a Hispanos que son de políticas más conservadoras. Ambos candidatos siguen refinando su metodología - tal como comentado por Associated Press ayer, "como pretendientes incómodos," aveces ambos candidatos han manejado torpemente su acercamiento a Hispanos al acercarse de manera demasiado directa y racional, con una metodología de "llevame a tu líder." Pero a los Hispanos les gusta desarrollar relaciones más estrechas y personales. El Sen. Obama empezó su discurso ayer agradeciendo y reconociendo personalmente a activistas y defensores de inmigrantes, como a Enrique Morones de Border Angels, y a lo largo de su discurso apeló al corazón y "carácter de esta comunidad," haciendo que el público sintiera que aprecia sus valores, y que esos valores son valores Americanos. El Senador McCain es reconocido y respetado por la comunidad Hispana, pero para ganarse a estos votantes tendrá que: 1) tomar esta oportunidad única para demostrar coraje con respecto al tema de la reforma migratoria y distanciarse de su partido, y 2) demostrar que no ve a la comunidad Hispana meramente como votantes, o peor, como un bloque de votantes a ser ganados, sino que tiene que demostrar que nuestras luchas son sus luchas, que él también conoce el "gran corazón" de la comunidad y que sinceramente le importa luchar al lado de y como parte de la comunidad Hispana. El concepto de familia es un fundamento de la "raza cósmica," y el Sen. McCain tiene que hacer que esta comunidad sienta su deseo de ser parte de la familia primero.

"La Raza Cósmica"

San Diego, CA - "The cosmic race," that is how Barack Obama referred to the Hispanic audience to whom he emphatically said, "Make no mistake about it: the Latino community holds this election in your hands," at NCLR's annual conference.  Yes, the Hispanic vote is a varied one, and a crucial one, and the comments I hear from the audience denote that - for the first time - they know it.  Folks here are excited and increasingly comfortable with having demands and expectations of candidates on the issues they care about because they know that their vote is more central to American politics than ever before.  As Andres noted in his interview with Maria Peña of EFE yesterday, whoever wins over Hispanics is assured to win the White House.

The use of the cosmic race denotes that Sen. Obama understands that the Hispanic community is one with a rich tapestry of cultures, colors, and beliefs.  Immigration is still by far the issue at the forefront on the minds of the attendees at this conference, mostly because of the impact of the ongoing immigration raids in the Hispanic community.  Yesterday I also heard many praise Sen. Obama for addressing a wider array of issues in more detail, in addition to immigration.  The challenge is on - it has been expected that given his current unpopular stance among Hispanics on immigration, Sen. McCain would focus rather on discussing economic and other issues of importance to this community during his address to NCLR.  Well, Sen. Obama seized the opportunity yesterday to beat him to the punch and introduce a proposed tax credit for small businesses providing health insurance to their employees, to discuss his plans for the economy, education, health care, veterans, and received thunderous applause as he attacked the impact of immigration raids on families, and he once again called out John McCain for having "abandoned his courageous stance" on immigration. 

It will be a hard act for Sen. McCain to follow, no doubt.  Sen. McCain has also recognized the differences within the Hispanic vote, and is working to appeal to more conservative Hispanics.  Both candidates are still refining their approach - as reported by the Associated Press yesterday, "like awkward suitors," both candidates have at times fumbled their approach to Hispanics by addressing members of the community too directly and rationally, with a "take me to your leaders" kind of tactic.  But Hispanics like to develop closer, more personal relationships.  Sen. Obama opened his speech by individually naming and recognizing several grassroots and immigrant rights activist in the audience, like Enrique Morones of Border Angels, and throughout his speech appealed to the heart and "character of this community," making the audience feel that he appreciates their values, and that those values are American values.  Sen. McCain is recognized and respected by the community, but to win these voters over he will have to:  1) take advantage of this golden opportunity to show courage on immigration and move away from his party on this, 2) show that he does not look at Hispanics as votes, or even worse, as a voting block to be convinced, he must show that our struggles are his struggles, that he also knows the community's "big heart" and that he genuinely cares about fighting alongside and as part of the Hispanic community.  "Familia" is a big foundation of the "raza cosmica", and he has to make this community feel his desire to be part of the family first.  

Clues About Sen. McCain's Position On Issues of Importance to Hispanics

In a piece in the Washington Post today, Marcela Sanchez discusses U.S. Senator Barack Obama's "Clues for Wooing the Latino Vote." Ms. Sanchez discusses the point made in NDN's report on Hispanics Rising that the harsh tone of the immigration debate on the part of Republicans has been perceived by many Hispanics as anti-Hispanic as opposed to anti-undocumented, and has thus cost Republican candidates votes - and elections - since 2006. However, Ms. Sanchez makes a distinction between the perception of John McCain and that of the Republican Party among Latinos; based on Sen. McCain's current stance on a number of issues, I do not see such a distinction.

As Marcela Sanchez cites herself, the polls show Sen. Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by at least 62-29 percent. She argues that many of those Latino Obama supporters might be in States that are traditionally Democratic, however, the polls are taken at the national level. While it is true that Hispanics are definitely not monolithic, the fact is that most Hispanics are concentrated in the Southern and Western swing states, and Florida:

Ms. Sanchez posits that it is in these states, New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado,"where McCain could connect with enough Latinos to make a difference." I disagree for one main reason - Sen. McCain could not even win Latinos in his own home state, where about 30% of the population is Hispanic. In the 2008 primary elections in Arizona, the exit poll data showed 68% of all Hispanics who voted cast their vote for a Democrat, and only 32%voted for a Republican. John McCain's share of that 32% was 21.76% of the entire electorate. This is particularly dramatic because when he ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Sen. McCain was able to secure 72% of the Hispanic vote - that is a fifty percent drop in votes from the Hispanic community of his home state in just four years. Which begs the question - who is really in the tougher spot with Latinos? The candidate who won his Senate election with 82% of the Hispanic vote in his own state and currently has a lead of over 30% among Hispanics nationally? Or the candidate who has lost fifty percent of the Hispanic voters in his own State who supported him in 2004? Mind you, this is not to say that it will not be a challenge for both candidates to secure the Hispanic vote, nor is it a matter of favoring one candidate over another, it is a matter of wanting to encourage the media and readers to provide a more detailed analysis and not buy into sound bytes.

The piece also describes Sen. McCain as a, "a key sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants," with, "a good track record with Latino concerns." I beg to differ - the story that is clear as day, but for some reason seriously underreported, is that John McCain was once a leader on the issue of immigration reform, but when the going got tough last year - once he decided to become a Presidential candidate - that took importance over his duties as Senator and he stopped attending the high-level meetings and brainstorming sessions that were necessary in order to get this difficult legislation passed. There is agreement among many in the offices of key legislators and advocacy groups that were there on the ground during the immigration debate: when the going got tough on immigration and other issues important to Latinos, John McCain was no longer in sight.

Some individuals mentioned in the article differentiate between Sen. McCain, the candidate, and his political party; they attribute his declining popularity to the negativity associated with Republicans, but believe Sen. McCain can remain above that sentiment as he, "will remain sufficiently moderate on immigration,despite some politically expedient tips of the hat to certain segments of the conservative base." I would say his actions have been much more than "a tip of the hat"- there is no difference at this time between John McCain and his political party. He is the Republican Party and he has shown this by certainly not being "moderate" on the issue of immigration. He has actively spoken in public rejecting and denouncing the trailblazing immigration legislation of which he was once a sponsor. Maybe because it is a sad story to tell, but I find that this story is not told.

Our report agrees with the conclusion in this piece that immigration is an issue that mobilizes Hispanic voters; however, I would not say that Hispanics are not supporting John McCain as part of a "protest vote" against his party; while that might be the case in part, it is a protest vote against the way John McCain's position has, in no uncertain terms, flipped on the issue of immigration. As much as his campaign or the media may try to deny it, there is no denying the facts, as reflected in an excerpt of our Hispanics Rising presentation:

 

 

 

 

You'll note that one of these slides cites to Meet the Press; at the time this blog was being drafted to post, a man that I look to as an example of the type of professional and person I can only hope to be, Tim Russert, passed away. My thoughts and prayers are with his family.

 

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