Economy

So, the two candidates to win on the GOP side so far? McCain, Huckabee.  Both have been relentlessly attacked, mostly by Mitt Romney, for their "liberal" positions on immigration.  Yet they won, and today both seem better positioned to win the nomination than Mitt, or certainly more than the other immigration demagogues in the field, Fred Thompson and Tom Tancredo. 

How can all those arguing that immigration is the make or break issue in the election explain this? One explanation from the NH exits is that it is a 2nd tier issue, and trails far behind the economy, national security and health care - and leadership and character - as issues of great concern to the American people.  

Once again, immigration has not delivered for the GOP, even in a well-funded Republican primary.

And if Arizona Senator McCain wins the nomination it will give the GOP a candidate who has been a nationally recognized leader on immigration reform.  His presence will also the GOP a shot at contesting the Hispanic vote that has turned so hard against them in recent years, and may make the task of a Democratic win much tougher as he could make the all important region of the Southwest harder to bring back into the Democratic camp.

Paul Krugman has a very good column today that puts the emerging home mortgage crisis in sharper relief - 10 million homes effected, $400 billion in potential losses. A staggering outcome. I've called it a Bush era financial market equivalent of Katrina - an extraordinary failure of government to meet its basic responsibilities.

And as Krugman suggests, it is important for progressives to use this crisis to highlight the difference in economic and governing philosophies between our world and theirs. But what is most important is for Democrats next year is not to allow the urgency of dealing with the mortgage crisis to get in the way of a much needed process to develop a much broader strategy for the American economy that addesses the already difficult struggle of too many Americans. While the Bush era produced strong GDP and productivity growth, record corporate profits and a high-flying market, the median income of a typical family actually declined; more are now without health insurance, more are in poverty and too many with dangerous levels of debt. The failure of immigration reform has left 5 percent of our workforce undocumented, dragging down wages and working conditions for all American workers. And Bush took our nation's vast wealth and invested it only in one great project - Iraq - which has, shall we say, not delivered the return we all had hoped.

Rahm Emanuel is right that the economy is going to be a dominant issue next year. Our recent poll like most others show the incredible concerns Americans have about their current and future prospects. But like most things in governing, the question is what are we are going to about it all? It is our belief that our leaders need to generate a 21st economic strategy that is comensurate with the size of the struggle Americans feel in their daily lives. Our Globalization Initiative has set forth a 3 part plan, one that calls for a reform of our energy and health care policies, promotes innovation throughout our new "idea-based" economy, and invests in our people and in our infrastructure. This plan will take years and hundreds of billions of dollars to implement. But I think at this point we have little choice other than to offer a plan of big and bold ambition, and then fight with everything we have to get it done over the next few years. Our heritage and philosophy - and the needs of the American people - demand no less.

Offering up such a modern and 21st century agenda will also help solve one of the country's other great challenges - how to best create an immigration system that meets the needs of our modern economy and does so in a way that is consistent with our values. The fear some Democrats have about the immigration debate should be taken seriously. Even though Comprehensive Immigration Reform has broad and deep support with the American people, it would be much more effective to package the issue in with this broader agenda to show that we are addressing the economic concerns of all American workers not just those of undocumented immigrants. To us at NDN the single best way to counter the nativist chants from the other side is offer a bold and ambitious economic agenda that includes aggressive support for Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

The enforcement-only approach to immigration reform is simply bad policy and bad politics. It won't actually fix the immigration system. It has been tried by Republicans for the last few years and gotten them very little in return. It will deeply anger the fastest-growing part of the American electorate, Hispanics, and I believe is deeply inconsistent with core progressive values. It connotes fear and cowardice rather than strength and strong leadership. It is the very opposite of tough - as it appears to be all about politics and not about problem solving. Which is why we oppose the legislative manifestation of this idea, the Shuler bill.

Getting our politics to work again after the terribly disapointing age of Bush will require bold and resolute leadership, and a commitment to many years of tough and difficult battles ahead. But once one enters the political arena, that my friends is the job, and this is no time to allow fear to continue to triumph over hope, and no time for us to walk away from the tough battles the American people are expecting us to fight on their behalf.

In a major reversal, Mike Huckabee announced a new immigration plan that calls for the 11-12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States to leave the country in 120 days. Once back in their home countries they could then apply for legal entry to the country. While this may on the surface sound reasonable, given the numbers waiting to get into the country, it would be years before they could return, even if they wanted to. So no matter how they dress it up it is a call for the immediately expulsion of tens of millions of people living and working here in the United States each day.

No matter how you feel about the morality of the plan, or its practicality, it is amazing that the man who may win the GOP nomination is calling for the forced expulsion of 5 percent of the current American workforce. The economic and societal chaos these kinds of plans would create is almost unimaginable. After his reasonable approach to the issue in the last GOP debate, this new plan is yet more evidence of the incredible inability of today's GOP to put pragmatic progress before politics.

How far the children of Reagan have strayed. The modern conservative movement has become a feckless and irresponsible force in America, offering wild and unproven ideas, unprecedented levels of corruption and a reactionary vision of race and community simply not suited to the emerging America of the 21st century.

Huckabee is not alone of course. Earlier this week Tom Tancredo, still soaring at 1% in his race for President, launched a new TV ad that closes with this uplifting sentiment: "Deport those who don't belong. Make sure they never come back."

As NDN has been arguing for some time, this kind of approach towards immigration has had catastrophic consequences for the GOP. It is shameful that Mike Huckabee has adopted it as his own. I am looking forward to seeing him defend his new plan at the Univision debate tomorrow night.

Update: The National Immigration Forum just released an excellent summary of the immigration debate.

The Hill's Jonathan Kaplan writes today about Congressional Democrats tackling economic issues next week and beyond. As NDN President Simon Rosenberg says in the article, we believe economic issues are going to be the top issue in the 2008 election for one simple reason: average Americans are struggling to get ahead, and the Administration's policies have failed them.

Household median income has fallen by over $1,000 since Bush took office. Wages are stagnant. These are the measures by which most Americans judge the American economy, and so it's no wonder that our recent poll shows that Americans are pessimistic and desperate for economic leadership.

Both the economic data and the public opinion data make it clear that we need a plan to make globalization work for all Americans. NDN believes that America must adopt a new economic strategy that would modernize our health care and energy policies; invest in our workers, students, and infrastructure; and foster and accelerate innovation across the economy. This strategy should also strive to fix our immigration system, ensure universal and affordable broadband access, and offer workers card check by adopting the Employee Free Choice Act. And perhaps most importantly, there must be a new national commitment to giving our workers and children the skills and capacities required to succeed in the globalized economy of the 21st century.

We need an economic agenda that doesn't just sound good, but an aggressive, comprehensive plan that will actually work and raise incomes, wages, and make it easier for Americans to get ahead. We're excited that the House Democratic caucus recognizes the urgency of the issue and is eager to take on that task next week and throughout 2008.