21st Century Agenda for America

Update: Franken Officially Wins Election, Great Op-ed on the "Failed State Next Door"

Franken - The Minnesota State Canvassing Board confirmed today that Al Franken has won his Senate election, ending a weeks-long recount process that started with the Democratic challenger facing a roughly 215-vote deficit.

Black Swans - A great blog by David Rothkopf on Latin America and foreign policy.  Here, the term "Black Swan" means a recurring theme throughout history in which key events or discoveries of real significance forced a rethinking of the rules and standard approaches that had previously guided society.  And we definitely need to rethink our policies in Latin America.  Excerpt of the piece: 

The best place to begin looking at what might be unexpected is to identify
what most Washington types think is in store for us. As of right now, 2009 looks
like this: deeper, messier recession worldwide, the beginning of the U.S.
pullout from Iraq, worries about Pakistan and Iranian nukes, hopes that Obama
can restore U.S. standing. Oh, and recently a recognition that Israel-Palestine
will continue to be an open wound. But here's five black swans that could arrive and wreak unanticipated havoc: 

1. The failed state next door

At a meeting of leading diplomats from around the Americas I attended not too long ago, the subject that caused the greatest concern was the situation in Mexico. Organized crime has taken a dominant position in a number of provinces and the federal government is struggling to contain the growing security threat. The country is losing oil revenue due to plummeting prices and mismanagement of PEMEX, the national oil company. The Merida Initiative, Plan Colombia-lite for Mexico, has not made the progress some had hoped for and the result is a fragile situation. Add the possible consequences of a very tough 2009 economically and a match is tossed on tinder. In a world in which there is no such thing as foreign policy any more -- every key event has U.S. domestic consequences -- there is no better example than our neighbor. The symptoms of crisis will come streaming over our borders and border-state politics will make it a problem Obama cannot ignore. (Especially with a Homeland Security secretary who is a former border-state governor.) 

Weekly Immigration Update - Outlook for Immigration in 2009

On yesterday's Meet the Press, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid discusses hopeful prospects for immigration reform in 2009:

MR. GREGORY: Let me ask you about politics.  This is what you told Roll Call two days after the election of Barack Obama.... "‘I think the country has moved to the center,'... ‘I think people want us to get things done.'" Let me test that proposition.  On immigration, do you have a deal between the president-elect and Senator McCain for immigration reform?...

...SEN. REID: "We need comprehensive immigration reform." That was a conversation I had with John McCain.  Yes, we need comprehensive immigration reform.  And what does that mean?  It means we have to make sure our borders are protected, our northern and southern borders.  We have to do something about the millions of people here who are undocumented.  We have to put them on, on a pathway to legalization.  Does that mean that they get to the head of the line?  Of course not.  They'd have penalties and fines and learn English and stay out of trouble.  We have to also do something on a guest worker program and we have to do something about the employer sanctions that works. John McCain believes that should happen.  I believe that should happen. That's...

MR. GREGORY: And he's discussed it with the president-elect?...

MR. GREGORY: McCain has?

SEN. REID: I don't know, but he's discussed it with me.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.  You think you've got a deal, a prospect of a deal.

SEN. REID: I have, I have John McCain's word that he's going to work real, real hard on immigration reform....

...SEN. REID: And I'll, and I'll work with him.

Gov. Bill Richardson Withdraws From Consideration as Commerce Secretary - This news is not only unfortunate for the President-elect and his team and for the country as a whole, it is bad news for immigration reform.  This Governor's support of reform and criticism of half-measures (such as "enforcement-only"), his legislative, executive, and international experience made him particularly qualified to put a great deal of weight behind comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) legislation in a time of economic crisis as Secretary of Commerce.  Luckily, we still have strong champions for CIR in the administration with Gov. Napolitano as DHS Secretary and Rep. Hilda Solis as Secretary of Labor.  The confluence of immigrants and labor is exactly what the current administration has not been able to get right.  What Ms. Solis and the President-elect seem to understand is that by upholding workers' rights, even for the undocumented, you uphold wage and labor rights for all working Americans.  It is indespensable that Barack Obama name a new nominee for Secretary of Commerce that posseses the same passion and ability of Gov. Richardson to strengthen coalitions in favor of CIR in order to pass CIR in 2009.

An article in The Hill comments on what will likely be early tests on immigration for Barack Obama upon assuming the Presidency, and Spanish-language media demonstrates that the Hispanic community has not forgotten Obama's commitments in this area.  Univision's Sunday morning program, Al Punto, aired an "end of the year" summary that featured five stories - four of the five had an immigration focus.  Next to job creation, immigration reform is the top issue on the minds of Latinos for 2009.  The analysts on Al Punto highlighted that as the economy improves, there will be a need to address the economic demand for workers so that businesses can meet their needs legally, and to ensure labor and wage standards for all workers.

The Hispanic community won't forget the promise of immigration reform - This Sunday, Al Punto had a feature on immigration reform in 2009 and re-played an interview with Barack Obama from May 28, 2008.  When asked whether he was committed to passing immigration reform "in his first year," he replied, "yes, in my first year."  Frank Sharry appeared on this segment commenting on the current climate of fear among immigrant communities.  

President-elect Obama on Raids - During the same interview that took place in May and was replayed this Sunday, Obama was asked how he would handle raids.  He responded that he considered raids a "good public relations move," to make it seem like the government is doing something, but they don't solve the problem in the long-term.  He recognized the terror that affects communities as something to be given due consideration, "I don't think it is the American way to capture a mother and separate her from her child," and not think of the consequences.  Clearly raids are a part of the general review the President-elect will undertake.  Rather than demand or expect him to issue an order "halting raids," I think we can expect Obama to shift the focus of enforcement to going after unscrupulous employers, criminal aliens, and human traffickers.

How to convince Barack Obama that reform is needed this year?
- This question was posed on the Sunday morning Spanish-language showI would posit that the bigger question is how to make sure we educate legislators in both chambers on this issue.  The bottom line is that American voters voted for Obama and for a large number of Democratic legislators as a repudiation of the inaction of the past eight years.  CIR provides the opportunity to demonstrate a will to govern, to take action and solve problems - particularly at a time of economic crisis.  The economy and immigration go hand in hand.  Immigration is a national security issue, it is an economic issue with economic roots and consequences.  By ignoring the undocumented and those who are wanted as workers, you encourage the exploitation that erodes working conditions and job security everywhere.  In a time of economic crisis, the stability and dignity of the work force are especially vital.  This is also why CIR must not be limited to addressing the legalization of the undocumented - CIR must address issues of future flow and it must revamp the entire visa system.  The existing visa system is outdated, unfair, and clearly unrealistic given that most of the undocumented came into the country legally and overstayed their visas.  With the amount of work immigration reform will take, it is vital that it is truly "comprehensive." 

Re: A long road back for the GOP - An interesting article in the CQ, "The Republican Search for Self Better Find Something Quickly," echoes what NDN has been writing about in Simon's post on their "long road back" and my post on how the current GOP is so out of touch - intentionally or not - with 21st century America.  John Bicknell writes: "Republicans are going to have to figure out who they are, and how that identity is relevant to modern America. And they are going to have to do it in less than two years. Otherwise, they could well find themselves on their way to another 40 years in the wilderness." For Democrats, CIR represents a great deal of opportunities to prove their ability to govern, and for Republicans, passing CIR can be the first step out of the wilderness.  

More Examples of our Broken Immigration System:  All of which exacerbate undocumented migration - 1) Marriage Fraud - CQ covers a CIS study as part of a larger piece on marriage fraud and immigration.  While CIS is a known hate group as identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center, and even though we have no factual basis with which to accept their data, even one fraudulent marriage is one too many, and it demonstrates the insufficient legal means for immigration in our laws.  

"The real problem with marriage and immigration law and policy is how the government disrespects the marriages of U.S. citizens and legal immigrants who obey the rules," Paul Donnelly, spokesman for American Families United, which works to reunite Americans' foreign spouses and children, said in an interview....Legal permanent residents have to wait almost five years - nearly eight years for Mexicans - to bring a foreign-born spouse or child into the United States. Americans who marry foreigners that have overstayed prior visas or have been discovered in the country illegally cannot bring that spouse or child into the country for at least three years, with a maximum 10-year term of inadmissibility if the visa overstay is greater than one year or the foreigner is deported.

2) Immigrants priced out of legal status - Only about half of all Central American immigrants eligible for a renewal of their temporary protected status actually filed for their renewals.  Many of these immigrants could not afford the filing fees due to having been laid off or having their number of work hours cut in this time of economic recession.  

3) The Face of Slavery - As long as there are insufficient legal channels for immigrants to come into the country, and as long as those existing channels remain slow and bureaucratic, we will continue to see crimes against humanity like those shown in this New York Times feature - examples of human trafficking and slavery into which women and children fall as they try to achieve the American dream.

The State of Courts - Chief Justice Roberts provided his annual report on the state of the federal courts, which showed bankruptcy filings rose by 30%, filings concerning criminal charges in immigration cases jumped by 27% (the cases are concentrated in the Southwest).  "Criminal charges" could mean criminal activity, or they could mean cases like the one that occurred in Iowa, where many undocumenteds with no IDs or social security numbers unkowingly signed guilty pleas for identity theft.  In the meantime, prosecution of sex offense cases grew by only 9%, and the number of drug cases actually dropped by 7%.  Chief Justice Roberts explained, "Those reductions occurred when investigative agencies shifted their focus from drugs to terrorism and sex offenses." 

Hate Crimes - Two Hispanic youths assaulted a 28 year-old Hispanic woman in San Francisco.  The woman is a lesbian who lived with her partner near the boys, the crime has been qualified as a hate crime.  This horrific crime is made more appalling by the fact that it occurs at a time when Hispanics are crying out in protest against the hate crimes that resulted in the murders of several Latino immigrants and as communities are fighting for their right to be free of fear of having hate crimes perpetrated.  How can we demand certain behavior of other communities if we don't begin with our own? 

Speaking of Border Security - A couple, their children, and family of 7 were killed en route from Dallas, TX to Mexico.  As they were about to cross the border in Texas, they drove on a bridge half of which had collapsed during rain storms.  There were no road blocks, not a single sign warning of the end of the bridge, so as the family drove during the night they fell over the edge of the bridge into a river, only one grandmother survived.

Al Franken to the Senate - It is expected that Al Franken will be declared the winner today in his race against Norm Coleman.  This is good news for immigration reform, click here to see Sen.-elect Franken's position on CIR. UPDATE:  Franken declared winner.   

Obama's Weekly Focuses on the Economy, Stimulus

The text: 

As the holiday season comes to end, we are thankful for family and
friends and all the blessings that make life worth living. But as we
mark the beginning of a new year, we also know that America faces great
and growing challenges—challenges that threaten our nation’s economy
and our dreams for the future.  Nearly two million Americans have lost
their jobs this past year—and millions more are working harder in jobs
that pay less and come with fewer benefits.  For too many families,
this new year brings new unease and uncertainty as bills pile up, debts
continue to mount and parents worry that their children won’t have the
same opportunities they had.

However we got here, the problems we face today are not Democratic
problems or Republican problems. The dreams of putting a child through
college, or staying in your home, or retiring with dignity and security
know no boundaries of party or ideology.

These are America’s problems, and we must come together as Americans
to meet them with the urgency this moment demands.  Economists from
across the political spectrum agree that if we don’t act swiftly and
boldly, we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to
double digit unemployment and the American Dream slipping further and
further out of reach.

That’s why we need an American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan that
not only creates jobs in the short-term but spurs economic growth and
competitiveness in the long-term.  And this plan must be designed in a
new way—we can’t just fall into the old Washington habit of throwing
money at the problem.  We must make strategic investments that will
serve as a down payment on our long-term economic future. We must
demand vigorous oversight and strict accountability for achieving
results. And we must restore fiscal responsibility and make the tough
choices so that as the economy recovers, the deficit starts to come
down. That is how we will achieve the number one goal of my plan—which
is to create three million new jobs, more than eighty percent of them
in the private sector.

To put people back to work today and reduce our dependence on
foreign oil tomorrow, we will double renewable energy production and
renovate public buildings to make them more energy efficient.  To build
a 21st century economy, we must engage contractors across the nation to
create jobs rebuilding our crumbling roads, bridges, and schools.  To
save not only jobs, but money and lives, we will update and computerize
our health care system to cut red tape, prevent medical mistakes, and
help reduce health care costs by billions of dollars each year. To make
America, and our children, a success in this new global economy, we
will build 21st century classrooms, labs, and libraries. And to put
more money into the pockets of hardworking families, we will provide
direct tax relief to 95 percent of American workers.

I look forward to meeting next week in Washington with leaders from
both parties to discuss this plan.  I am optimistic that if we come
together to seek solutions that advance not the interests of any party,
or the agenda of any one group, but the aspirations of all Americans,
then we will meet the challenges of our time just as previous
generations have met the challenges of theirs.

There is no reason we can’t do this.  We are a people of boundless
industry and ingenuity.  We are innovators and entrepreneurs and have
the most dedicated and productive workers in the world.  And we have
always triumphed in moments of trial by drawing on that great American
spirit—that perseverance, determination and unyielding commitment to
opportunity on which our nation was founded.  And in this new year, let
us resolve to do so once again. Thank you.

See the video here.

For more on NDN's recent work on the economy and stimulus click here, and for our recommendation on including a national effort to give all American workers computer training visit here.

The GOP and Magic Negros

In a new Huffington Post story by Sam Stein on the GOP's now infamous Magic Negro song, I offer this observation: 

"The core play in the GOP playbook for 44 years has been the magic negro
playbook," said Simon Rosenberg, head of Democratic organization NDN
and one of the most well-versed party figures on racial politics. "They
don't have another play or another playbook. Whether it is Willie
Horton, or welfare queens and tax and spend, or the way they have dealt
with immigration... they don't have a play in their playbook that
doesn't start with the exploitation of racial divisions... They are
going to have to reject 44 years of GOP politics in order to have any
chance in the 21st century America."

That a major candidate for RNC Chair could produce this song, at this time, in this year, is yet another example of why for the GOP theirs is A Long Road Back, a topic I covered in a recent essay on our blog.  Their recent success as a national Party was built on an approach towards race that spoke to a different racial reality in America, an American one where could get away with magic negro songs, and much much worse of course.  But that America - a white/black, majority/minority America - is now an historic relic, and is in the process of being replaced by an America that has 3 times as many minorities as it did just 44 years ago, and is on track to be majority minority by 2042 (for more on this historic demographic transformation see here).  But for many in the GOP, including ones who might become their Chairman, they know no other politics than this Southern Strategy era politics, a politics that has been rejected once and for all by the American people of today's America.  

It is important that the leaders of the GOP have begun to confront its shameful racial past.  But their problem has no simple or easy fix.  It will require a complete refashioning of their politics around a very different set of 21st century demographics and a much more tolerant understanding of race in America - and a complete and utter repudiation of much of their domestic agenda for the past half century.  Which is major reason why I think their road back is such a long one - many of their leaders came to power by becoming expert in this kind of politics; it is the core play in their playbook; it is the foundation of their domestic agenda; and they know little else.  Their old Southern Strategy dogs aren't going to learn new tricks - for the GOP they will have to slowly, over time, replace their anarchronistic leaders with ones schooled in the modern governing challenges, modern media and technology and modern demography of our day.  The process of watching this generational replacement take place will be one of the most interesting political stories of the next 10-20 years, and of course has become all the more necessary in the age of Obama.  

How many reading this blog are aware that of the hundreds of Republicans in the Senate and House, just 5 are technically minorities - 4 Cuban-Americans from South Florida and a new Vietnamese-American from Louisiana? No African-Americans, no non-Cuban Hispanics.  In a nation now one-third minority the Washington Republicans remain 98 percent white and deeply out of touch with the emerging and much more complicated racial construct of our day.  

My advice to them? As you remake your Grand Old Party look to Lincoln - not Nixon - for your inspiration. And good luck.  The nation will be better off with a 21st century Republican Party rather than the failed, disgraced and intolerant one we have today.

Update: For fun check out how our A Long Road Back argument was addressed and discussed at the conservative website Townhall the other day.  

Wed am Update: The debate rages on.  The WaPo weighs in with an editorial today, and the Politico reports that "'Magic Negro' Flap Might Help Saltsman."

Fri am Update: Paul Krugman chimes in today with a very good column that echoes some of these themes.

The Census Confirms: The U.S. Increasingly More Southern and Western

On Monday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its estimates of state-by-state population, which show a decades-long pattern continuing apace: growth in the country's Southern and Western states continues to out-pace that in the states of the Northeast and Midwest.  Sound familiar? Yes, that's because you heard it here first.  Since NDN began its analysis of the Hispanic electorate and the demographic trends nationwide, we concluded that our nation is becoming:

 

 

 

 

 

Some have criticized President-elect Obama for having a Western-heavy cabinet and administration, and while this might not have been intentional, it does reflect the demographic trends of the nation.  Finally, the Census data is important because it provides our first clues as to re-districting based on the 2010 Census - for example, Texas is expected to gain three House seats, Nevada will most likely gain at least one. Stay tuned as NDN continues its demographic analysis during 2009, in preparation for re-districting analysis. 

The Obama Administration Reflects 21st Century America

Over the past week the number of Hispanics/Latinos in Barack Obama's administration jumped to 7 individuals, an historic number, with the appointments of U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar and U.S. Rep. Hilda Solis.  Even before this week, Obama was already receiving praise for setting a record of top Hispanics in the Cabinet (full First Read Cabinet Census listed here).  The number of senior Latino staff to the White House might increase once again, if Adolfo Carrion is in fact named to head the White House Office of Urban Policy.  The Latinos named to the administration so far, and their posts: 

- Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), Secretary of Commerce
- Nancy Sutley (of an Argentine mother), Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality
- Moises "Mo" Vela, Director of Administration Office of the Vice President
- Luis Caldera, White House Military Office
- Cecilia Muñoz, Director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs
- U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO), Secretary of the Interior
- U.S. Rep. Hilda Solis (D-CA), Secretary of Labor

Additionally, Rep. Xavier Becerra was approached for the position of USTR, but it is reported that he decided to remain in the House of Representatives.  Rep. Becerra and others have been asked by the Spanish-language media if they feel that the number of Hispanics named is "sufficient," which completely misses the point of what these appointments mean.  As stated by Rahm Emanuel, "diversity wasn't the driving force here....most importantly, the quality is of a single standard.  We wanted to make sure that we got a great staff of seasoned people - both on the policy front and political front - who knew their stuff."  What we celebrate is not that Hispanics are filling some sort of quota, we celebrate that the new administration is inclusive and receptive of talent, regardless of background and ethnicity, and we celebrate that the Latinos being named are leaders who have excelled in their respective fields.   We celebrate that Latinos are not only a growing demographic, but that it is finally out in the open that they are also a part of the most talented pools of leadership in the United States.

As Simon has stated, these appointments mean that Democrats - and President-elect Obama - are working to build a very 21st century, and potentially durable, coalition.  They are discovering the new electoral map of this new century, and employ the latest and potent tools to engange the American people.  Obama particularly engages the Latino community through his Spanish-language updates and press releases on the inauguration, and through the Spanish translation of all his press releases and weekly address.  

NDN congratulates all of the Presidential nominees, particularly our friends and collaborators - Rep. Hilda Solis is a longtime friend of NDN's and provided important support to our affiliate Latino voter mobilization campaign, Adelante 08.  Gov. Richardson and Sen. Salazar are also longtime friends and formed part of NDN's founding advisory board. The nomination of our fellow Latinos not only demonstrates the power of the Latino vote, it is a reflection of the reality of our nation's demographic makeup and reflect's our nation's true mixed racial and ethnic identity.  We congratulate President-elect Obama's commitment to reflecting the talent that comes from this racial reality in his Administration. Moreover,  these appointments are proof of our community's abilities - these Latinos are also the most qualified people for the job. 

Weekly Update on Immigration: DHS Has a Really Rough Week, Oops! Bush Did it Again, New Tools in Immigration

The Minnesota race continues, but don't hold your breath - Democratic candidate Al Franken got a boost on Friday in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman.  On Friday, the state's election oversight board recommended that each of the state's 87 counties review absentee ballots initially rejected as invalid, and submit amended vote tallies that include any ballots found to be wrongly rejected.  The thing is, the board does not have the authority to require counties to conduct such a review, so it would be up to the candidates to issue legal challenges to force the issue should any county decline to re-examine the legitimacy of the disputed ballots.  The Secretary of State projects that more than 1,500 absentee ballots could be found to have been improperly turned away, and if this turns out to be the case,  Al Franken would have to win a relatively small plurality of those ballots to overcome the razor-thin lead held by Coleman following a hand recount of votes cast in the Senate race.

Judiciary Loses Its Lion - In case you missed it, Sen. Ted Kennedy stepped down from his post on the Committee on the Judiciary.  It will be interesting to see who will start to throw their hat in the ring to succeed Sen. Kennedy, and whether that person can - and will - follow Sen. Kennedy's example in the area of immigration reform. 

Tough Week for DHS:   1) DHS Programs caught midstream in the transition - Among them, the controversial SBInet border security system, construction of it is scheduled to begin in March 2009 in Arizona.  After being known in Congress for cost overruns, malfunctions, gaps in management, and miscommunication with Congress, Alice Lipowicz reports on the challenges ahead for SBInet advocates. 
2) A perfect example of the broken immigration system:
  the cleaning service used by DHS Secretary Chertoff to clean his house had undocumented immigrants working there.  What better example of how broken our immigration system really is, and the urgent need to fix it.  At least the Secretary didn't "knowingly" hire "illegals," as did  Lorraine Henderson, an employee of Customs and Border Protection (emphasis added) - Ms. Henderson reportedly was recorded warning her cleaning lady to be "careful" to not get caught.  Who said DHS didn't care?  A former FEMA employee who was sentenced earlier this year for identity theft, with which he funded shopping sprees, has been handed five plus years in federal prison. 
3) Detention center in Rhode Island will get no more
detainees, pending an inquiry into the treatment, and subsequent death, of a Chinese engineer in that detention center. 
4) A judge's denial of DHS's request for a mid-January decision in the case involving DHS's rule pertaining to no-match letters means that President-elect Obama inherits the prolongued legal dispute over the current administration's push to pressure employers to fire undocumented workers.  It is highly unlikely that an Obama administration would pursue the current flawed DHS rule.  In his platform, Pres-elect Obama has proposed an effective verification system as a part of comprehensive reform.
5) TWIC Delays Upset Workers -
U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and their contractor, Lockheed Martin, had a great many truckers and port workers upset at them as the workers' new biometric Transportation Worker Identification Cards - which they must possess by Dec. 30 in order to be able to work - were delayed.  Some workers in Baltimore reported to TSA on several occasions to pick up their TWIC cards and were turned away due to the volume of people ahead of them.
6) A GAO report released this week
on the planning and execution improvements needed for the US-VISIT program.    

What Immigration Reform does NOT look like - This week President Bush announced regulatory changes to the H-2A agricultural guestworker program that remove important protections for workers and make it easier for employers to bring in foreign workers.  Once again, this is amnesty for unscrupulous employers, not reform.  

Utah Guest worker program to be implemented - The state legislation, SB81 has received ample criticism, and could very well face challenges in the coming weeks and months, prior to its implementation.  

Henryk Kowalczyk's Huffington Post must-read post on why the Immigration debate is about so much more than just immigration.   

Census Updated American Community Survey - The U.S. Census released its 2008 community survey this week, and reiterates the trend mentioned before: immigrants and minorities are moving away from cities and becoming a larger part of the population in suburbs, etc. 

New Tools in Immigration, too - the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and the New York University School of Law (NYU) launched a project called "State Responses to Immigration" as a joint effort to provide a free, searchable data tool designed to generate information on all immigration-related bills at the state and local level across the nation.

Hate Crimes - Sadly, another Ecuadorian man was killed in New York by a group of men who viciously attacked him.  Jose Sucuzhanay's homicide is under investigation, and it is helping gather civil rights leaders from accross the country to address the spike in hate crimes against Latinos.  Mexicans at the U.S.-Mexico border also report an increase in hate crimes and agression based on nationality and ethnicity.  We see an important social turning point, immigrants - Hispanic ones in particular - fight back against discrimination.  In Tennessee, legal immigrants who had their documents unlawfully taken from them are filing suit.

Interesting article in the Arizona Daily Star on the border fence.  

New IPC Report - The Immigration Policy Center has compiled a major report on minority and New American voter data, as well as motivating issues in the 2008 election cycle.  The report also explores the outlook for immigration reform.

Employers need education on the effects of immigration, too - According to the latest survey released by Manpower, a private Human Resurces firm, 62% of the 4,804 employers in Mexico who were surveyed described themselves as not particularly concerned with the impact of emigration on the Mexican labor market, the remaining 38% does believe that emigration can have a harmful effect on the Mexican economy and cause a potential "brain drain," as well.  An estimated 8 million 5 hundred thousand Mexicans work outside of Mexico.

About 150,000 immigrants from Michoacan are estimated to return to this Mexican state for the Holidays, although there are no estimates as to how many might remain in Mexico.   It is estimated that immigrants going to Mexico for the Holidays will inject about $5 billion into the Mexican economy.

More Ideas for the Stimulus: Free Computer Training for All Americans

Yesterday my family went shopping at a local Apple Store for a new iPod for my wife (she chose a Nano). In between chasing my kids as they ran through the store, we were all greeted with a remarkable sight - a youngish Apple employee patiently teaching a class of 10 or so middle-aged adults about all this new fangled technology pouring out of Apple these days. Since then, I've thought a a lot about that image of seeing learning happening at a retail store right in the middle of the holiday rush. To me, it could become an inspiring image for this new age of Obama - America and its people retooling, together, for the new economy of the 21st century. 

The new economy of the 21st century will be many things, but we know it will and must be technology-rich, built on a low-carbon foundation and with the rise of nations like China, India, Brazil and Mexico, much more globally competitive. Successfully transitioning America and its people to this new economy is one of the incoming President's most daunting challenges, and one he seems to understand. 

NDN was pleased and excited last week when the incoming President embraced some ideas we've been aggressively advocating for - investments in greening government buildings, health IT, creating universal and ubiquitous broadband and computer access, including in our nation's public schools and overall investment in our nation's aging infrastructure. These are smart investments, ones that will not only help address the short-term challenges we face but also help accelerate our transition into this new economy.  

As he and his team consider other measures that have similar dual short- and long-term benefits, we hope that they take a serious look at another idea NDN has been promoting - offering free computer training to all Americans. NDN first proposed this idea in a compelling paper by Dr. Rob Shapiro last year, Tapping the Resources of America's Community Colleges: A Modest Proposal to Provide Universal Access to Computer Training. In it he wrote:

It is time that America ensures that all workers have real opportunities to build
the skills necessary to operate one of the most important new technologies of our time, computers. Young Americans are increasingly adept at working with computers, but many American workers still lack those skills. Here, we propose a direct, new approach to giving U.S. workers the opportunity to develop those skills, by providing federal government grants to America’s community colleges to keep open their computer labs three nights every week, staffed by instructors who will provide basic instruction to any person in the community who walks in and requests it.

The primary way any nation can ensure that its people enjoy broad‐based upward mobility is to raise the productivity of its workers and businesses. Achieving that goal, as the United States has done throughout most of its history, depends largely on three critical factors. First, the economy must promote the development and spread of new technologies, new ways of organizing and operating businesses, and other innovations that create new value and new efficiencies. Second, companies must invest in those technologies and in other business and economic innovations, so workers can use them to perform their jobs more productively. Finally, workers, companies, and the government must provide continuing support for all workers to acquire the skills to operate new technologies and perform well in innovative business environments.

The program proposed here, fully implemented, could provide that support and enable all American workers to learn basic computer skills at a total annual cost of less than $125 million a year.

Later in 2007, Senator Obama's campaign embraced the idea, and Democratic Caucus Chair John Larson has been working on a bill that would introduce the idea in the House. We discussed this idea, and a sister idea - putting a laptop in every backpack of every American child - at a forum last year with Rob, Rep. Larson and Transition Advisor Alec Ross.  

There is great societal power in this program, well beyond its surface appeal. Imagine if the President launched a multi-year campaign to challenge Americans to upgrade their skills, and become fluent in the new ways of the Internet and computers. That he would offer training, ubiquitous access and in exchange, we would all go back to school - making it patriotic to retool around these new technologies and this new way of working. Older public officials could take these classes and encourage their fellow citizens to do so. Community leaders could engage in public chats with students in newly wired schools. And so on. It could become a national, communal effort to move our society and people to this new economy, together, embodying this new ethic already articulated by President-elect Obama that what must be done must be done together, that there is a limit to what government can do.  That by embracing this national effort to retool we will ensure that no American is left behind in this new economy of the 21st century.

My hope is that this moment I witnessed in the Apple Store yesterday - Americans learning, retooling - becomes a a model for an entire generation, and that together we work to make sure all Americans have the tools they need to live, learn and prosper in the new economy of this daunting new century.

The Politics of Trading Recession for Inflation

On virtually everything economic, the Bush Administration and much of Congress have become the gang that can't shoot straight -- and their stray bullets could take down a good piece of the nation's economic prospects. They have directed hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to financial institutions (and soon, auto companies), and they're getting ready to direct several hundred billion more at the overall economy. In all of these instances, a political drive to display the will and capacity for large actions has overwhelmed deliberate thinking about the specific consequences of those actions. The Obama presidency and the country may pay a big price for this scattershot approach.

The latest example of this dangerous development is the ever-expanding size of the long-awaited next stimulus. We're in a deep and serious recession and a major stimulus was certainly needed -- mainly six months ago, when the Bush Administration and Congress provided tax rebates which were largely saved and had little stimulative effect. Now we know how bad the downturn is turning out to be, and Congress and the Administration-in-waiting is preparing another stimulus of a size commensurate with what's already unfolding, once again, as if this were six or eight months ago. A stimulus providing another $200 billion to $300 billion in new federal spending makes sense, mainly as insurance for another shock to the economy. But a $500 billion to $750 billion package like the one now under discussion will miss its target by many months and mainly indicates that the new rule is that anything goes when you win and damn the consequences.

Congress seems intent on responding to this recession as if everything known about how the business cycle works can be ignored, and the consequences could be serious. The Obama team is focused on long-term investments in 21st century energy and transportation infrastructure, modernizing health care records, expanding training and education, and extending broadband and IT access for poor children. That's all good news for the long-term health of the economy and for the incomes of many households.  The catch is, long-term investments entail not a one-time boost in spending, but continued funding. So when we raise the ante on those investments from $100 billion or so to $300 billion, $400 billion or $500 billion, we're implicitly choosing either to foreswear any other commitments, such as health care, or to embrace another round of dangerously large, structural deficits.

Since the new politics seems to involve never saying no, the likely result of the current course, on top of the extraordinary infusions of credit by the Federal Reserve, is serious inflation once the downturn begins to resolve itself. This pattern is disturbingly similar to the short-sighted and cavalier approach to long-term risks that got the nation into this mess. And it continues to develop alongside the Treasury and Congress' continuing inability to address the rising foreclosures still driving the financial crisis and the credit freeze accelerating the downturn. Yet real responses are within reach: place a moratorium on foreclosures while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac renegotiate the terms of millions of troubled mortgages and link financial bailout funds to a commitment to use them to extend credit to businesses. If we do that, the economy won't need so much fiscal or monetary stimulus. 

The current approach presents other serious risks. This pattern of fast-rising spending, on top of the bailouts already done and those to come, as well as more tax cuts, could push the U.S. deficit to levels that even the United States will have trouble financing. The Asian and Middle Eastern governments that provide much of our public financing could stop -- either because they'll see inflation coming, too, or because the global downturn and falling oil prices sharply reduce their savings and thus, their ability to lend them to us. The U.S. Treasury will always find the funds it needs, but it may have to pay a lot more to borrow them, which means higher interest rates. So the current approach risks an interest rate spike on top of everything else, which at best would lead to a substandard recovery. With all of its talent and broad public support, the Obama presidency should be able to do a lot better than that.

December 11: NDN to Host Forum on The Economic Crisis and its Impact on Latin America

As the global implications of the current economic crisis become increasingly evident, NDN would like to remind you of the upcoming discussion on "The Current Economic Crisis and Its Impact on Latin America."

This discussion with some of the most recognized economic minds in Latin America is an important addition to NDN's Latin America Policy Forums. It is also an important occasion as we welcome back to D.C. our good friend and collaborator,Joe Garcia, who recently concluded a spirited campaign in Southern Florida. Joe, formerly NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs, will moderate a panel that includes the Honorable Luis Alberto Moreno, President of the Inter-American Development Bank and former Ambassador of Colombia to the United States, as well as regional policy experts.

Speakers:
Hon. Luis Alberto Moreno - Prior to joining the IDB, Ambassador Moreno served as Colombia's Ambassador to the United States for seven years. Previous to his post as Ambassador, Moreno served a distinguished career in both the public and private sectors in Colombia. He has held a range of leadership positions, such as representative of the Andean Region of WestSphere Capital, Senior Advisor to the Luis Sarmiento Organization, President of Colombia's Industrial Finance Corporation, and Minister of Economic Development.

Dr. Nora Lustig - Dr. Lustig is a native of Argentina who currently resides in Mexico and works with the Colegio de Mexico. She is currently a J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Visiting Professor at the George Washington Elliot School for International Affairs. Prior to this, she served as President of the Universidad de las Américas Puebla (UDLAP)in Mexico. Before her post as President of the UDLAP Dr. Lustig was Chief of the Poverty and Inequality Unit at the Inter-American Development Bank. Dr. Lustig has also been a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Professor of Economics at El Colegio de México.

Mr. Paulo Sotero- Mr. Sotero is currently the Director of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Brazil Institute. For the last 17 years, Mr. Sotero was the Washington Correspondent for Estado de S. Paulo, a leading Brazilian daily newspaper. He has also been a regular commentator and analyst for the BBC radio Portuguese language service, Radio France Internationale, and Radio Eldorado, in Brazil. Since 2003 he has been an adjunct lecturer at Georgetown University both in the Department of Spanish and Portuguese and in the Center for Latin American Studies of the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Mr. Carlos de Abreu - Mr. de Abreu is currently the Brazilian Embassy's Deputy Chief of Mission and Minister Counselor for Economic Affairs. A Brazilian career diplomat, Minister Counselor de Abreu has also served as Head to the Market Access Division at the Ministry of Foreign Relations, as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, and as an advisor to the Under Secretary for Policy Planning at the Ministry of Foreign Relations. His diplomatic postings also include the Brazilian Embassy in Bolivia, Argentina, and the Consulate General in San Francisco.

This briefing will take place on Thursday, December 11, at 3 p.m.  Please click here for the full event details.  Please RSVP as soon as possible, the event is open, but space is limited.  Refreshments will be served.

To learn more about NDN or to view past  events with the Ambassadors of Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and the Vice President of Panama, please visit our website at www.ndn.org.

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