In this new century, in my lifetime, America will become a country that is only 60 percent or so white. Factoring in that a little more than half the population is female, this means that somewhere between 70% and 75% of all Americans in the future will be either women or minorities. One of the great challenges for both political parties and both ideological movements in this new century will be to build their politics around these and other profound demographic changes in America, ones that are creating what we call a “new politics.”
By this measure the emerging Democratic Presidential field in 2008 is historic. The two leading contenders today are a woman and a mixed race American of partial African descent. Another leading contender is of Mexican descent, is bi-lingual, and comes from a state, New Mexico, which has the most complicated racial and cultural mix of any state in the Union. When you add white male candidates from the South, Midwest and Northeast this field looks an awful lot like the emerging America of the 21st century and not at all like the America of the 20th century. We’ve never seen any Presidential field like this in American history. It is now clear that Democrats are offering a vision of a party that looks like, and speaks to, the emerging population of 21st century America.
The Republican Presidential field on the other hand is all white, and all male. It looks very much like a field from any race of the late 20th century. It even features one candidate, Tom Tancredo, who is running in large degree to reverse the demographic changes described above.
In 2006 the Republicans attempted a new twist on the old Willie Horton approach by demonizing Hispanics, and waged a national campaign against immigrants of all kinds. The American people, aware of the new realities of our 21st century people, rejected the racial rhetoric of the Republicans. Vicious anti-immigrant candidates like Randy Graff and JD Hayworth lost in Arizona, ground zero for this debate. Millions marched in the largest civic demonstrations in recent American history. And the Hispanic vote, the fastest growing segment of the American population, surged to never seen before numbers and swung wildly towards the Democrats. On understanding and accepting these demographic realities the American people appear to be way ahead of its leaders.
Many words will be used to describe the Democrat’s field this year but the one I believe is most accurate is “modern.” Democrats just look like a 21st century Party, with leaders who look like and speak to the people of the America of today and tomorrow. The Republicans on the other hand are struggling with reinventing their politics around these new realities. Yes, over the objections of many, they now have a Hispanic immigrant as the Chair of their party. But that same week Senator Martinez was chosen, the Senate Republicans made Trent Lott, a Senator with a history of institutional bigotry and racism, their number two. Their Presidential field is all white male, the only minorities in their Congressional Party are four Cuban-Americans from Florida and many leaders in their Party continue to fight comprehensive immigration reform in horrible and racist terms.
The Republicans should be worried about these developments. For getting on the wrong side of enormous cultural trends like this one can make a party a minority party for a long time. But perhaps in times of great change this what we should expect from one party long associated with the word “progress,” and another associated with the word “conserve.”
So this morning, as we watch the exciting Senator Obama toss his hat into the ring, let us also reflect on the historic nature of the Democratic field, and acknowledge that this party of Clinton, Obama, Richardson and Edwards appears to today much more the party of 21st century American than its adversary.
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