New Progressive Politics

In our paper, A Laptop in Every Backback, which we released last year, Alec Ross and I wrote:

It is the core premise of this paper that the emergence of a single global communications network, composed of Internet, mobile, SMS, cable and satellite technology, rapidly tying the world's people together is one of the seminal events of the early 21st century. Increasingly, the world's commerce, finance, communications, media and information are flowing through this network. Half of the world's 6 billion people are now connected to this network, many through powerful and inexpensive mobile phones.

Each year more of the world's people become connected to the network, its bandwidth increases, and its use becomes more integrated into all that we do. Connectivity to this network, and the ability to master it once on, has become an essential part of life in the 21st century, and a key to opportunity, success and fulfillment for the people of the world.

We believe it should be a core priority of the United States to ensure that all the world's people have access to this global network and have the tools to use it for their own life success. There is no way any longer to imagine free societies without the freedom of commerce, expression, and community, which this global network can bring. Bringing this network to all, keeping it free and open and helping people master its use must be one of the highest priorities of those in power in the coming years.

An article from the Economist this week reviews the remarkable and historic progress made - and the challenges that remain - in bringing more people on to this global communications network. It begins:

THE mobile-phone industry returned from its mammoth annual trade show, 3GSM, held earlier this month in Barcelona, gloating over its successful year. More than 3 billion (almost half the world's population) now have mobiles, and the price of a phone has sunk as low as $25. There are now more mobile-phone subscribers in poor countries than rich ones. That would have been unimaginable a decade ago. 

Mobile phones have improved poor people's lives tremendously, from providing political news and health-care information in remote areas to fuelling commerce. Enthusiasm over bringing technology to the world's poor has been matched in the computing industry, with many companies now selling low-cost laptop computers (so far around $200, but poised to drop much further). But the next digital hurdle-providing internet access-will be much harder to surmount, for both economic and geographical reasons.

The article's findings are based on a new report from the OECD, GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTERNET ACCESS DEVELOPMENTS.

In the coming year I hope that our community can make this conversation about providing all the world's people access to the global communications network a much higher priority for our nation's leaders. These are extraordinary times, full of possibilities for America and the people of the world. In years since the fall of the communism more people have been lifted out of poverty, ignorance, dispair and isolation than perhaps any other time in human history. But as this article lays out there is still much to do, more people to engage, more countries to help in making the difficult transition to a modern state. And however these nations and peoples move closer to adopting the American formula - democracy, free markets, liberty, the rule of law - they will also need to embrace the transformative power which access to this global communications brings for their societies and citizens.

We will be looking at ideas and initiatives like these at our March 12th conference in DC, A Moment of Transformation? - I hope you will join us.

Another whirlwind week, and I want to point out three new examples that appeared to illustrate the new kind of distributed politics that we are lurching towards. That new brand of decentralized, bottom-up, broad-based politics was brilliantly summed up by Joe Trippi at this week’s event on Capitol Hill put on by NDN and the New Politics Institute.

Trippi, the chief strategist behind the 2004 Dean campaign and this cycle’s Edwards’ campaign (as well as a founding fellow of NPI), squeezed down the essence of what is happening in the Democratic race for the nomination. The Clinton campaign, the absolute best, most powerful example of the old model of top-down politics on the Democratic side, is getting beaten by only the second-ever example of the bottom-up new politics model, that of Obama. Watch Joe’s 10 minute exposition of this idea, where he talks about Dean’s campaign being the Wright Brothers, and now, only four years later, Obama is landing on the moon.

And so this week there were three new examples of how that new kind of distributed politics works. One comes from the supporters of Clinton. It’s a fantastic example of how ordinary citizens, without any control or even knowledge of the official campaign (or at least from what it seems), can come together to create moving media with the power to persuade. Check out Hillary Speaks for Me, which is reminiscent of 2004’s “Bush In 30 Seconds” by MoveOn, and creates an infrastructure where anyone can upload 30-second videos about why they support Hillary. It is extremely well done, and given that I have been pointing out many user-generated examples on the Obama side in recent weeks, I want to highlight this first. Bottom-up politics can benefit anyone who tunes into it.

Second is the Superdelegate Transparency Project, created partly by Jennifer Nix, a New Politics Institute Fellow. Jen herself posts about the project elsewhere on this blog so I won’t elaborate on it, but point out a couple things. This is a distributed project among what could be called citizen journalists, or bloggers, to just fill out the details of who the delegates are, who they are currently endorsing, and how the district or state they represent voted in the primaries or caucuses. Simply doing the legwork and shining sunlight in these murky corners both does a journalistic service that the understaffed mainstream media outlets can’t do, but the very fact they are doing the project at all may help change the behavior of the delegates themselves. There won’t be any backroom deals here. It’s all out in the open and out there early. Check it out.

Finally, the mainstream press, starting with the New York Times, “broke “ the McCain and Vicki Iseman story, about his uncomfortably cozy relationship to a lobbyist. I put “broke” in quotes because the blogs had been chewing on this beforehand, but it did take a respectable institution to force it onto the national agenda. However, once that crack in the dike appeared, the distributed forces started the next wave of stories. Check out the Brave New Films effort to broaden the notion of McCain’s friends, with a takeoff of the old television comedy series “Friends.” With the help of some other blogs they help fill out the famous couch with friends beyond Iseman. And they set up a petition process that people can join and virally send around.

And that was just this week. This is a mushrooming process that will continue in the weeks and months ahead. By the time November comes around, the  electorate will be churning with so many new efforts we won’t be able to track them all. Democracy, you gotta love it.

Peter Leyden
Director of the New Politics Institute

A new Gallup poll shows very dramatic gains for the Democratic brand and further evidence of what we've been calling the collapse of the GOP brand.

Key points:

- Democrats lead in Party Identification by one of the largest margins ever recorded by Gallup, 40%-26%.

- The Democratic Party has a 56/38 favorable/unfavorable rating. The GOP 41/52.

- A clear majority believes the Democratic Party is much more likely to bring about the changes the country needs, and are able to manage the federal government effectively.

We've been making the case since the fall of 2005 that the conservative ascendency that brought us Reagan, Gingrich, Bush, the Southern Strategy - and that has so weakened America - has come to an end, and a new era of politics is being born. This new poll is further evidence of the extraordinary opportunity the Democrats and progressives have in the years ahead to move beyond the failed politics of this conservative era and make the big changes the times and the nation requires.

Update: I talked about this conservative collapse in my remarks at our Political Forum this week in DC.

With Barack Obama's ten-state winning streak, and growing pledged delegate lead over Hillary Clinton, we are likely seeing the last gasp of the Clinton campaign in the run-up to the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4th.

If Senator Clinton doesn't win big in Texas and Ohio, the only real question left in this race pertains to the so-called superdelegates.

Will Clinton be able to hold on to the majority of her current superdelegate support, and then try to orchestrate some kind of "superdelegate coup" that would thwart the will of rank-and-file voters--in whatever way you wish to define that term (be it by Congressional district, state or national vote and delegate totals)?

That scenario seems less and less probable by the hour, with her superdelegate supporters slipping away, like so many water-torture drip...drip...drips.

What this whole situation calls for however, is a good hard look at the superdelegate process. At best, during the primary and caucus season, these superdelegates have been a superfluous distraction, confusing all concerned. At worst, the murky superdelegate system is an undemocratic way for Party power-brokers to maneuver behind the scenes--to scoop up PAC money and favors--and to possibly rig our nomination process.

Sorry, superdelegates. It's time that this bad idea meets with its demise. We don't need Super-Democrats coming in to make decisions for us. The people are perfectly capable of electing their own nominee for president.

While there's been much public hand-wringing and uproar about this superdelegate issue in recent weeks, there is only one grassroots project that has people all over the country engaging in a collaborative effort to introduce some sunlight into the shadowy superdelegate system. And, my, how our superdelegate friends have run for cover and made much ado about how they would never thwart the will of the people.

The Superdelegate Transparency Project (STP) began two weeks ago, and currently represents a partnership between my blog, LiteraryOutpost, OpenLeft, DemConWatch, HuffingtonPost and Congresspedia (which is a project of the Center for Media and Democracy and the Sunlight Foundation). Combined, these partners have brought nearly 300 volunteers to STP, folks that are concerned about what effect the superdelegates might have on our Democratic nomination.

These volunteers are putting in time to track down vote totals, district-by-district, along with pledged delegates. Then they are tracking down, interviewing and publishing stories about the superdelegates, recording how they are currently pledged, whether they've switched, and eventually what their vote will be.

A few blasé voices here and there have said we don't need to worry about the superdelegates this time around. But the point is: We should never have to worry about them again.

The Superdelegate Transparency Project, when completed, will provide evidence to make that argument forcefully. No longer will we have to speak in hypotheticals about what superdelegates probably did or didn't do. This time, we'll have a first-ever, complete set of data that tracks the nitty-gritty of superdelegate behavior--district by district.

As the New York Times said, "[STP] is the kind of tool that the back room bosses from 1984 could never have imagined -- and today's political bosses are probably horrified to see."

Rank-and-file Democrats will be able to make the case that early endorsements and pledges from superdelegates--those that are collected before the primaries and caucuses even begin--are only an unfair advantage for whomever the Establishment has chosen as the annointed and "inevitable" one. But guess what? It's not their call.

The Blasé Band can say what they like about how we didn't have to worry. But they miss the most important points. The Superdelegate Transparency Project moved people from concern, straight into action--and transparency is playing its very important role in keeping the superdelegates honest. Sorry, we didn't want to sit around on our couches, talking about throwing pies. We wanted to make sure this never happens again.

Next, we can use the STP data to bring all Democrats around to a necessary realization.

Superdelegates? We don't need no superdelegates!

We need a Democratic nomination process that is democratic.

[Note:If you have some time today, come join STP's Barn-Raising effort. We're trying to get the last bits of data updated, so we can begin releasing our findings to the media next week.]

[Cross-posted at HuffPO and LiteraryOutpost.]

A Moment of Transformation?
A look at just how big a change may be coming to politics, America and the world

Top Experts coming together for this day-long event on March 12th in
Washington D.C. to discuss how multiple transformations in America
and the world could be catalyzed by a transformation in politics

The political world is in a moment of transformation with many unprecedented developments rapidly coming together amidst widespread calls for deep, systemic change. But our politics is part of a larger series of transformations happening in many fields across America and the world.

Come to a day-long gathering in Washington D.C. on March 12th where NDN and the New Politics Institute bring together leading thinkers and experts as they lay out the potential for transformative change in their fields and talk about the implications for politics and governing:

• On the unprecedented evolution of the global economy into one increasingly integrated whole, join Dr. Robert J. Shapiro, author of the new book, Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work.
• On the vast array of practical, ready-to-implement new technologies and efficient practices to green the economy, join Amory Lovins, the famous head of the Rocky Mountain Institute and author of Winning the Oil Endgame.
• On one big, bold initiative about how to quickly scale up an overhaul
  of transportation from gas-powered to electric, join entrepreneur Shai Agassi, founder of Project Better Place.
• On game-changing government policies, join Elaine Kamarck, soon
  to be co-chair of the Climate Task Force, a new organization bringing
  business and environmentalists together around the most effective ways
  to address climate change.
• On the new emerging world order, particularly the rise of the 21st century Asian powers of China and India, join Orville Schell, author of nine books on China and Director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society.
• On the massive demographic shifts going on in America, such as the rise of the young Millennial Generation, join Morley Winograd and Michael Hais, coauthors of a brand new book, Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics.
• On how these transformations in the private sector and civil society
  may or may not be catalyzed through politics and enacted by government,
  join a top panel of big picture political journalists, among them Matt Bai of the New York Time’s Sunday Magazine and John Heilemann, who writes for New York Magazine and formerly worked for Wired magazine.
• On how all of this is integrated together and impacts politics, join hosts Simon Rosenberg, NDN President, and Peter Leyden, Director of the New Politics Institute.

The day will be organized around a series of relatively short presentations and discussion with the audience all integrated around the overarching theme of what’s really possible after this historic election in 2008. With all the talk on the campaign trail about change and transformation, what will it really mean to governing in the years ahead?

Come to this March 12th gathering and find out. Be sure to spread the word to all those who may be interested. The entire event is free and open to all, and includes lunch and a cocktail party. So RSVP today, invite your friends on Facebook, and forward this e-mail along to your network.

Date: March 12th, 10:00am - 6:00pm
Location: Capital Hilton, 1001 16th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
RSVP: Click here to RSVP

If you have questions about the event, contact Courtney Markey at 202-544-9200 or email at cmarkey@ndn.org.

Over at MTV I explore the question of young Superdelegates and if they are following the trends of the 2008 youth vote.

Read the full post here: www.chooseorlose.com

There is a lot of talk about young voter turnout and about Superdelegates these days. Young people have emerged as a critical bloc of voters. The media, candidates and many naysayers of the youth vote are finally giving them and the issues they care about attention on the campaign trail.

It got me thinking-are the young Superdelegates following the trends of young voters and how much has the youth vote increased this year?

I decided to take a look at all the primary and caucus states that have voted so far in order to get a good sense as to the young voter trends-increase in turnout, preference of candidate, preference of Party-and then compare that to the Superdelegates under 36 that have come out as "pledged" to a certain candidate.

Trends of Party Preference: The Shift to Democrats

Young people are overwhelmingly going for Democrats this election cycle, following a trend since 2000. Mike Connery, a blogger over at Future Majority, put together this nifty graphic that shows the growing Democratic advantage among young people.

As you can see, already in 2008, young people are voting 65% for Democrats and only 34% for Republicans (it's actually up to 68% now since a few more states have come in after Mike created this graph as you will see later in this post).

Democrats have a 31% vote advantage headed into the Presidential elections not to mention all the down ballot races for Senate, House of Representative, Mayor, etc. this will affect.

While this is great news for the Democrats, it is not so good news for Republicans. But--and a big but at that--Democrats should be forewarned. Republicans had the youth vote during the Reagan years. Almost 60% of the young people then voted for Republicans and continued to vote for Republicans as a bloc of voters.

However, Republicans stopped talking to future groups of young people and it shows now in their numbers. If Democrats want a lasting majority, they need to continue targeted programs at young people or risk losing a big chunk of the electorate in the future. While young people make up about 21% of the electorate now, they will be 30% of the electorate by 2012 and that is a bloc of voters that can very easily swing elections.

State by State Breakdown: Over 4 Million Strong and Growing

Across the board young people have increased their votes in almost every state except in NY there was no increase. The average number of young people voting in a state in 2004 was 46,373. The average in this election cycle is 174,646. That is more than tripling the number of votes cast for 18-29 year olds. This is remarkable since many youth voting experts could have predicted a 15-20% jump, but no one predicted a 200% plus jump.

Read the full post here: www.chooseorlose.com

Jane Fleming Kleeb is the Executive Director of the Young Voter PAC which helps Democratic candidates and State Parties win with the 18-35 year-old vote through endorsements, on-the-ground support, training, strategy and money. She is a regular on Fox and is part of MTV’s Street Team ‘08 representing Nebraska.

The “Yes We Can” viral videos pinging around the internet in the last couple weeks have taken “mash-ups” to a whole new level in politics.

Video mash-ups are when you take video produced for one purpose and repurpose it in another context to make a different point. The first big example of this in politics came a year ago with the repurposing of Apple’s classic 1984 Super Bowl ad into a political statement about Hillary Clinton’s national conversation, and a warning about the rise of Obama. We’ve been talking a lot about mash-ups and viral video at the New Politics Institute in the last year, including an event with the creator of that “Vote Different” video.

But the “Yes We Can” by will.i.am and other stars raised the bar dramatically. This took a lot of creative work to blend a new song around the words of Obama from a primary speech. Their efforts have been rewarded with more than 4 million hits on YouTube and countless references on mainstream TV.

Now come the knock-offs and some of them are terrific. If you have not seen them, check out the john.he.is video that takes key passages from McCain’s speeches and has what looks like characters similar to the “Yes We Can” video trying to reinforce his words, but coming out puzzled and angry about McCain’s lines like “bomb, bomb Iran.”

Then there’s the “No You Can’t” video that has rich Americans singing off the Obama speech about how you can’t disrupt their status quo. It ends with the word “Vote” morphing into “GOP.” Very funny.

It’s true that these viral videos may only hit numbers in the 1 to 4 million range rather than the 10s of millions who might see traditional 30-second television ads. But many of these people viewing the viral videos are the activists and opinion leaders and journalists who can leverage it far beyond the numbers. They then send them out to their influential circles of friends and families too.

There are other factors that make these videos more powerful than they may appear on the surface. They can blast far beyond the boundaries of 30 seconds - for example, the “Yes We Can” video is a full four minutes. And it bears reminding, that the cost for distribution is zero. Nothing, compared to millions of dollars to try and force a quick message at TV couch potatoes who don’t’ want to see it, and increasingly, can zip past the ads with their digital video recorders.

And then there is the coolness factor. This is the indefinable quality that, as they say, is priceless. To have a guy from the Black Eyed Peas and his Hollywood friends volunteer to create a video for Obama is cool. To have creative young people all over the internet follow up with their versions is even cooler. Remember, this is America. To be cool is valuable. That translates into politics.

Then again, not all web videos are created equal. Some can really backfire on a candidate too, even if they are devised to help. Witness the “Hillary for You and Me” video which seems like it was created in the 1970s. But then, the 1970s are now hot. Or was that last year?

Peter Leyden
Director of the New Politics Institute.

A while back I signed up to receive text messages from the campaigns to see how they were utilizing this new tool. I didn't know what to expect really, but figured if they had the service they were going to use it somehow. Well, as it stands, I've received six text messages in the past 48 hours or so. One from the Clinton campaign and five from the Obama campaign. I've typed them out below:

From the Clinton campaign:

Feb 12, 2008 2:25:41 PM ET - Election Day - don't forget to vote! Every vote counts in the race for the nomination. Thank you so much for your support. -- Hillary

From the Obama campaign:

Feb 12, 2008 6:14:11 PM ET - Fired up? Our moment is now. Tell all your friends to vote for Barack NOW! If you are in line by 7pm, they must count your vote. Info call: 866-675-2008 (ext 4)

Feb 12, 2008 2:02:41 PM ET - People who love their country can change it. Make sure all your friends vote tonight for Barack! Polls open in VA until 7pm. For info: 866-675-2008 Fwd this msg

Feb 12, 2008 11:43:13 AM ET - One voice can make a difference. Make sure that voice is yours! Fwd this msg and make sure all your friends vote today for Barack. Questions, call 866-675-2008 (no.4)

Feb 11, 2008 6:54:42 PM ET - Vote for Barack tomorrow! Polls are open in VA from 6am to 7pm. For location info visit: VA.BarackObama.com or call 866-675-2008 (press 4) Please fwd this msg.

Feb 10, 2008 7:25:17 PM ET - Breaking: Obama wins Maine! You are next up on Tuesday -- remind all your friends to vote and to text JOIN to 62262. Please fwd this msg.

Update: I received another text from the Obama campaign last night that you can see below.

Feb 13, 2008 10:00:32 PM - CNN calls DC, MD & VA for Barack! We are growing momentum in red states and blue states. Fired up? Ask friends to join our movement by texting HOPE to 62262.