New Progressive Politics

Why the Plumber Story Doesn't Hold Water

As Melissa just pointed out, the star of last night's debate was Joe the Plumber (who does not hold a plumbing license, makes less than $250,000 a year and has not paid his taxes anyway, rendering the whole argument utterly moot). US Sen. John McCain brought Joe up in order to paint US Sen. Barack Obama's tax plan as class warfare - he accused Obama of wanting to take Joe the Plumber's wealth and spread it around (although in liberally-biased "reality," it turns out that Joe would actually receive a tax cut under Obama's plan), and repeatedly asked why Obama would want to raise taxes on anyone in these difficult times. McCain even asserted that there could be no possible justification for Obama's tax plan.

Really, Senator McCain? How's this for a start; Obama's tax plan does nothing more than to partially (and not even completely) reverse Bush's tax policy. Under the Bush tax cuts, which Senator McCain supports and wants to extend, the bottom 20% of earners got 1% of the tax cuts, while the top 1% got a whopping 33%. The top 5% got almost 50% of the tax cuts.

This isn't just a problem of fairness, as Joe Biden argued in the vice-presidential debate (although this question of fairness in our tax structure certainly merits a more sustained philosophical discussion). It also happens to be bad economics; because lower and middle-income people have a higher marginal propensity to consume, more of the money that goes to them in tax cuts goes back into our economy, resulting in a larger multiplier effect and a greater increase in aggregate demand. This, of course, is simple common sense; give tax breaks to the people that actually NEED them, not the top 1% who are already making an average of $13+ millon a year.

The growing inequality in our country is making our economy increasingly unstable and our current form of government untenable and unsustainable. But don't just take my word for it: ask the most recent winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, Paul Krugman. In a fantastic piece from 2003 in the New York Times Magazine entitled "The Tax-Cut Con", Mr. Krugman laid out a prescient analysis of where the Bush economic policies would lead us. It turned out that he was right, yet Senator McCain continues to espouse the same flawed and discredited economic arguments. It is high time that progressives pushed back, hard. At the end of this must-read article, Krugman says this:

The astonishing political success of the antitax crusade has, more or less deliberately, set the United States up for a fiscal crisis. How we respond to that crisis will determine what kind of country we become.

If Grover Norquist is right -- and he has been right about a lot -- the coming crisis will allow conservatives to move the nation a long way back toward the kind of limited government we had before Franklin Roosevelt. Lack of revenue, he says, will make it possible for conservative politicians -- in the name of fiscal necessity -- to dismantle immensely popular government programs that would otherwise have been untouchable.

In Norquist's vision, America a couple of decades from now will be a place in which elderly people make up a disproportionate share of the poor, as they did before Social Security. It will also be a country in which even middle-class elderly Americans are, in many cases, unable to afford expensive medical procedures or prescription drugs and in which poor Americans generally go without even basic health care. And it may well be a place in which only those who can afford expensive private schools can give their children a decent education.

But as Governor Riley of Alabama reminds us, that's a choice, not a necessity. The tax-cut crusade has created a situation in which something must give. But what gives -- whether we decide that the New Deal and the Great Society must go or that taxes aren't such a bad thing after all -- is up to us. The American people must decide what kind of a country we want to be.

Thursday New Tools Feature: New Tools, New Time

With voter registration deadlines fast approaching in many states, a final push to register new voters is underway. Most notably, MySpace has partnered with the four largest nonpartisan voter registration groups in the country to launch a voter registration contest, the Ultimate College Bowl.

It works like this: students sign up and are given the embed code for the easy-to-use registration widget, which they then embed in their web sites, myspace pages, or blogs, just like I've done at the bottom of this post. The college that registers the most new voters wins a free concert at their school by Death Cab For Cutie, and the school that registers the largest percentage of their students wins a concert by the Decemberists. The students that personally register the most people can also win scholarships or Guitar Hero 2 (as a recent college graduate, I will admit that I would still be very happy to win any of these prizes).

In general, the use of technology to encourage young people to participate in politics is becoming increasingly prevalent and effective. Though our outdated and inconvenient voting system is set up in a way that discourages young people from voting (a fact which is much more responsible for low youth turnout than our purported "apathy" or "unpredictability"), we can now register in ways that fit our lifestyles - through social networking sites, cell phones, and even videogames (Rock the Vote just came out with a registration form request feature for the Xbox 360).

The results are impressive: the Los Angeles Times reports that Rock the Vote has registered 2.3 million voters this year, more than twice as many people as in 2004. Turnout among those under 30 also increased by 9% from 2000 to 2004, more than twice the increase of any other age group. Technology has had a central role to play in this trend; for example, Rock the Vote reports that "voting rates increase 4% when young people receive a text message reminding them to vote."

The Millennial vote has the power to swing this election. As such, it is incredibly important for the political world to engage them directly. To learn more, read our New Politics Institute paper, Leverage Social Networks, as well as our revealing report about The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation.


Daily Ad Wars Continue...in Spanish

The ad wars continue en español. Barack Obama moves on from immigration to speak to Hispanic voters in Spanish about another issue close to their heart: Healthcare. Obama just launched a television ad called Seguro Médico, or "Health Insurance", and a radio ad called Batallando, "Battling". Another demonstration of the increasing importance of Spanish language media as the Hispanic electorate grows.

TRANSLATION OF RADIO AD:
[TALENT #1:]

For the last 12 years, I have been battling diabetes.

With the economy being so bad, I lost my job and my health insurance. Now I don't know how I will pay for my medicines and my medical bills.

John McCain's health plan allows insurance companies to deny people coverage if they have preexisting conditions.

This doesn't help people like me.

Barack Obama is the only one that offers us a solution.

[ANNOUNCER:]
Barack Obama's health plan makes health insurance accessible for all ...
...and it reduces costs for families struggling to pay for their insurance.

One out of every three Hispanics in this country lacks health insurance. What will John McCain and the Republicans do for them?

Barack Obama will stand up to insurance companies and special interests so that are families are protected.

That is his commitment.

[BO:] I'm Barack Obama, candidate for President, and I approve this message.

 

TRANSLATION OF TELEVISION AD:

[Nexador Rodriguez:]
A lot of people that I know have to decide between getting sick and eating.

[Liz Carrazco:]
I have relatives in my family that don't have health insurance and they have serious illnesses.

[DALIA GALLEGO:]
...I'm not working, and well, I don't have health insurance and right now it's very difficult.

[ANNOUNCER:]
Barack Obama and the Democrats are fighting to make health care accessible to everyone. Reducing the costs.
Covering more families.

[DALIA GALLEGO:]
NOT ON CAMERA

And I think that he is going to be the person that is going to help us. He is my inspiration.

[BO:] I´m Barack Obama and I approve this message.

Translation of Visuals:
One in three Hispanics have no health care

Health Care for All

The Obama Health Care Plan

Learn more about the plan: BarackObama.com/issues

Lower Costs for Families

APPROVED BY BARACK OBAMA. PAID FOR BY OBAMA FOR AMERICA AND THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE.

 

NDN in the (New) Media

This election cycle, many people have complained that the traditional media has not been doing its job all that well. The general complaint is that instead of giving voters the information they need to make informed and intelligent decisions, the ratings-driven mainstream media increasingly focuses on distractions and sound bites. Some have called for the reform of our traditional media; others have simply bypassed it.

We believe in engaging the non-traditional media. Here are a few of our new-media mentions from the past week:

DailyKos, The Latino Journal, and The South Chicagoan referenced our recent polls of Hispanic voters in key battleground states.

Simon and Rob Shapiro are featured in The American Prospect’s blog, Tapped, as well as Biodun Iginla’s BBC weblog, for their joint statement, “Keep People in Their Homes.” Shapiro also appears in Campaign for America’s Future.

Finally, Michael Moynihan, Director of NDN’s Green Project, has posts in The Huffington Post and Gristmill.

Unpublished
n/a

Se Lanza Campaña llamada "Adelante" en Colorado Para Animar Participación de Votantes

Hoy, el centro de investigación llamado The New Policy Institute, un filial de NDN sin fin de lucro y no-partidario, lanzó una campaña para motivar a ciudadanos Hispanohablantes a votar este Noviembre.

La campaña se llama Adelante. Comienza esta semana con anuncios a punto de saturación del mercado de radio en Colorado, y con una página de Internet, www.adelante08.org. La campaña hará dos cosas: por un lado ayudará a motivar al público a votar y por otro lado explicará el proceso para votar, incluyendo información sobre votación temprana y votación ausente. Se espera que gran parte del público serán Hispanos que van a votar por primera vez. La primera fase de la campaña comienza hoy en Colorado. Entre hoy y el día de las elecciones, Adelante lanzará cientos de anuncios en Denver (estaciones KBNO, KXPX, KJMN y KMXA), Colorado Springs/Pueblo (estaciones KNKN y KRYE), y en Fort Collins/Greeley (estación KGRE). Para escuchar el primer anuncio, “Acuérdate”, o leer el guión del anuncio y la traducción al Inglés, haga clic aquí.

Para más información sobre el electorado en los Estados Unidos, vea el reporte recientemente publicado por NDN, Hispanics Rising II. Durante muchos años, NDN y sus filiales han luchado para asegurarse de que la voz de la comunidad creciente de Latinos sea escuchada dentro del gran debate que informa a la democracia Estadounidense. Esta campaña es el capítulo mas reciente dentro de este esfuerzo de muchos años.

-- Guión del anuncio --

Español:

MUJER: ¿Qué tan lejos hemos llegado?
HOMBRE: Acuérdate de Roberto Clemente.
MUJER: De la misma Selena.
HOMBRE: O de César Chávez.
MUJER: Sí, hemos llegado muy lejos, pero no podemos vivir de glorias pasadas.
HOMBRE: Este año, de ti depende decidir si nos quedamos hasta donde hemos llegado o seguimos avanzando.
MUJER: Sigue adelante y vota.

Mensaje pagado por Adelante, NPI y el Tides Center.

Friday New Tools Feature: Over the Landline

 

The New York Times this week reported that 17% of American households are now cellphone-only, and that number may reach 20% by the end of the year as tougher economic times and less expensive and easy-to-use mobile devices lead to increased cell phone use.

This trend raises interesting questions about the 2008 presidential election. Higher percentages of cellphone-only users are Millennials and minorities than the national average, and they tend to be more progressive than traditional landline users. For instance, a recent Pew Research Center poll found that cellphone-only voters greatly favored U.S. Sen. Barack Obama over U.S. Sen. John McCain: 61% of voters that were leaning toward a candidate went for Obama, compared to only 32% for McCain. Of those cell-only voters that were certain about their vote, 46% went for Obama while only 18% were voting for McCain.

One common concern is that this trend might throw off national opinion polls by under-representing young people and minorities. Polling companies are certainly aware of this problem, and use statistical weighting and more cell-phone polling to compensate – for example, Gallup now includes cell phones in every national poll they do, and Pew does strategic cell-phone surveys to adjust for differences between groups. While there is no real consensus about whether these measures sufficiently correct for the influence of cell-only voters, we should not assume that Obama has a “hidden” five-point advantage that will materialize in November.

More important than the challenges they pose for pollsters is the fact that cell-only users tend to be more transient and are less likely to be registered to vote. They are harder to reach for voter registration and get-out-the-vote initiatives, but are critical to Obama’s success in November. The Obama campaign understands this, and has revolutionized the use of mobile technology in politics by launching Obama Mobile, which uses SMS messaging to help register voters and remind them to actually vote, as well as to send them regular campaign updates. By inviting people to sign up to receive the text announcement of his VP choice, the Obama campaign added many new mobile numbers into their database, which should translate into increased turnout from cell-only users come November.

The Obama campaign has also launched Obama Movil, the Spanish-language version of Obama Mobil. This is especially important, given that Hispanics are more likely to be cell-only users and use text-messaging more than many other demographics (49% of adult Latinos use text-messaging on their mobile phones, compared to 31% of whites), but use the Internet and landlines less than other groups. Mobile technology is therefore critical in reaching a demographic that could have a profound influence on the outcome of this election. The Obama program seems poised to build on the success of similar text-based programs for Hispanics. 

NDN and the New Politics Institute have been talking about the increasing importance of mobile technology to progressives for some time, and we are finally seeing the new politics coming of age in a big way. To read more from us about how mobile technology is changing politics as we know it, read our NPI papers Go Mobile and The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation.

"Play Stump the Candidate", Says Sarah Palin

Right on the heels of Senator McCain's latest foreign policy gaffe, his side-kick/Vice Presidential running mate decided to take a crack at dispelling these "attacks" about her lack of foreign policy experience. Just to put this in context: in the past week a bomb was detonated at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen, two U.S. ambassadors were expelled from Latin American countries, and the ambassadors from those nations were similarly recalled from the U.S. (not to mention the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, of course). The importance of the actual knowledge - not just "experience" travelling - and understanding of these complex international relationships by Presidential candidates cannot be understated. It is anything but unfair to demand that the persons running for the highest seat in the land possess higher than average knowledge and understanding of the different regions in the world and our interest in each.

In this town hall meeting Gov. Palin basically says that we shouldn't fear because she and her running mate might not be ready now, but they will be ready "on January 20", "God willing". And she explains her credentials in the area of foreign policy: she'll be ready because she "has that readiness"...she's "ready to serve". "You can even play stump the candidate if you want to" by asking her "specifics, with specific policy or countries."

 

Nagourney: New Media is Changing Politics

The New York Time's Adam Nagourney has an excellent piece today reflecting on how the changing media environment is fundamentally altering the model of modern campaigns and advocacy. 

Matt Damon on The Palin Ultimatum

And just for fun - I think Matt Damon brings up a good point.

I love the comment a VERY conservative friend of mine made when I sent him this video: "Caring or quoting what celebrities think about anything is usually cause for a punch line, but in this case, he happens to be correct."

His comment reflects how during this election, unlike any other, people are switching parties, switching preferences, and reflecting over a broader array of issues that are less substantive but no less relevant - issues like race and age in a Presidential election, the role of a Vice Presidential nominee - much more than in the past.

 

 

 

 

Syndicate content