Some Initial Thoughts on the 2021 Elections

First, NDN remains optimistic that the 2022 elections can be far better for Democrats than 2021 proved to be.  We lay out the 3 reasons why in a new memo: real accomplishments to run on starting with defeating COVID, extreme/unfit GOP, bigger and better campaigns and turnout machine.  Despite everything, as we say in the memo, we’d rather be us than them heading into the mid-terms next year. 

Next, as we warned in a widely cited memo a month ago, the Democrats needed to come together in October, get a deal done and break the relentlessly negative public dynamic “for the good of the party, for Virginia, for his own Presidency” (WaPo).  That didn’t happen, and Joe Biden’s approval rating dropped from Biden 45.9-48.7 (-2.8) on Oct 1st to 43.3-51.1 (-7.8) yesterday – the lowest point of his Presidency (via 538).  Biden’s recent job approval slide:

July 1  52.8-43.1 (+9.7)

Aug 1  51.0-44.5 (+6.5)

Sept 1  46.4.-48.1 (-1.7)

Oct 1   45.9-48.7 (-2.8)

Nov 2 43.3-51.1 (-7.8)

With all three Virginia statewide races being decided by 2 points or less, it’s pretty clear that if Biden had been able to keep his approval where it was even in early October last night would have turned out just fine. But that didn’t happen, and Democrats paid a heavy price.  As we head into 2022, the Biden White House and his allies in Congress simply must do a better job in managing the President’s approval rating in order to give his party a fighting chance in the elections next year.  It is a central responsibility of the party leader, and far more should have been done to have prevented the fall we’ve seen.  

Lots of lessons to be learned from these losses, lots of changes/improvements to be made as we head into 2022.  Head down now, back to work all.  Let’s get this reconciliation deal done as soon as possible and spend the next few months finishing the job on COVID and securing what has become a bumpy recovery.  This time of debilitating debate has to end. 

NDN has scheduled two opportunities for you to dive into the election results with us and talk about next year:

Friday, Nov 5th 2pm ET – NDN Election Briefing – Join NDN for our monthly look at the national political landscape and the 2022 elections.   Will be a lively one this week.  RSVP here.  Feel free to invite friends and colleagues.

Friday, Nov 12th 2 pm ET - With Democrats Things Get Better – Join NDN for our signature presentation that looks at how much better the economy – and America – does when Democrats are in power.  Lots of important data in here for anyone in the daily scrum.  RSVP here