New Future Majority Polling Memo on Hispanics, Abortion and the End of Roe

With the Dobbs Supreme Court decision imminent, our friends at Future Majority have released a new memo looking at how Hispanic voters in AZ, NV and PA view abortion and the possible end of Roe. The summary of their findings is below, and you can find the full memo here.  The bottom line – Hispanic voters in these three states overwhelming support the right to a legal abortion in America, and ending Roe will dramatically increase support for Democratic candidates, especially among younger voters and women. 

If these results are replicated nationally, the GOP’s attempts to restrict abortion access will be a serious problem for Republican candidates with Hispanic voters in this and future elections. For more on Future Majority’s new polls of Hispanic voters, see this memo summarizing the findings in all three states, and be sure to watch our discussion with Fernand Amandi, the project’s pollster, as he walks through the data.  The three polls show a surprising degree of strength for Democratic candidates, and across the board weakness for Republicans – confounding the emerging conventional wisdom about recent trends in the Hispanic electorate.

We also recommend our new analysis, The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party’s Hispanic Strategy.  It shows how Democrats have picked up millions of votes, over 30 Electoral College votes and critical Senate and House seats through their gains with Hispanic voters over the past 20 years. 

NDN and I are proud to support this important new project from Future Majority, and are excited to bring more of it to you - Simon

Future Majority Memo Summary

Hispanic voters in these three states overwhelmingly support a woman’s right to choose.  Support for abortion is particularly strong with younger Hispanic voters, and almost half of all Hispanic voters in all three states say the issue will make it more likely they support a Democrat this fall.  Less than 20% of Hispanics in these three states say ending Roe will make it more likely for them to vote Republican. 

Spanish speakers are far less supportive of legal abortion than English speakers, but as of now, this does not appear to be a significant opening for Republicans. Spanish speakers in all three states are significantly more Democratic than English speakers, and very few say it will make it more likely for them to vote for a Republican this fall.  In fact, in each state, far more Spanish speakers say ending Roe will make it more likely for them to vote Democratic than Republican.

As it has been for decades, the GOP argument that abortion is a gateway for their candidates with Hispanic voters appears to be wishful thinking in these three states.  If anything, our data shows that Republican efforts to end a woman's right to choose is likely to be far more beneficial to Democratic candidates than Republican candidates this fall, particularly with Hispanic women and younger Hispanics. 

Support for legal abortion is over 60% for Hispanic voters under 50 years of age, and is up in the high 70s and low 80s for Hispanics 18-29.  Only one in ten Hispanics in these three states believe abortion should be illegal in all cases.