What’s Next for 2007: The Beginning of a New Progressive Era?

I was asked over the break to give my sense of the next big story to emerge in 2007 by the WorldChanging.com team. WorldChanging is a networked community and group blog that is connecting the dots between all the developments going on in the world right now that point to a new kind of global system that will work in the 21st century, particularly in regards to people living in balance with the environment.

Their view spans many different sectors, of which politics and government is only one. And they asked many of the people they respect in many different fields to make their predictions on “What’s Next.” My contribution, directed to their audience, can be seen on their site here, and the list of other essays are here. The text of my essay follows:

The next area for the world-changing juggernaut to hit will be politics and government. The short answer is that American politics is entering a transformative period that is roughly analogous to a handful of other periods in American history – namely the earlier progressive eras. Think the first two decades of the last century – from Teddy Roosevelt to Woodrow Wilson. Or think about the New Deal transformation with FDR in the 1930s and 40s. We’re in the beginning of another one of those progressive political reinventions right now.

What happened then, and is happening now, is that fundamental economic and social restructuring gets to the point where the old politics don’t work, particularly conservative formulas that look backward. The new world’s new challenges go unsolved, and problems build to the breaking point – then a new politics begins. These periods have been characterized by a burst of progressive politics – an innovative, forward-thinking, people-powered politics. These progressive reinventions can last a couple decades but at the end of the process new models for politics and government are established and pretty much work for a long run.

The 2006 election marked the end of the most recent conservative era, one that ran for 25 years from Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush. The American people made a fundamental repudiation of the modern conservative formula. Think Hoover. The conservative brand is going to languish for a long time.

Now everyone is starting to look around for the progressive alternative. Not old-style progressivism, but a new 21st century version. And true to the WorldChanging mantra, the signs of the new progressive politics are all around us. This year California blazed a trail with landmark laws to aggressively take on climate change. Even Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should be seen for what he is – a new kind of progressive Republican. Then both Houses of Congress flipped to the Democrats, as well as state houses and legislatures across the so-called red heartland. And now the talk is of Obama and Gore shaking up the 2008 presidential race with big, bold, world-changing ideas. Hang on for what will be a tumultuous year in politics and government.

Peter Leyden