Administration floats Iraq options
The Washington Post reports on the deliberations inside the White House, and says the President will offer his new plan for Iraq and the Middle East the week of December 18th:
As pressure mounts for a change of course in Iraq, the Bush administration is groping for a viable new strategy for the president to unveil by Christmas, with deliberations now focused on three main options to redefine the U.S. military and political engagement, according to officials familiar with the debate.
The major alternatives include a short-term surge of 15,000 to 30,000 additional U.S. troops to secure Baghdad and accelerate the training of Iraqi forces. Another strategy would redirect the U.S. military away from the internal strife to focus mainly on hunting terrorists affiliated with al-Qaeda. And the third would concentrate political attention on supporting the majority Shiites and abandon U.S. efforts to reach out to Sunni insurgents.
As President Bush and his advisers rush to complete their crash review and craft a new formula in the next two weeks, some close to the process said the major goal seems to be to stake out alternatives to the plan presented this week by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. The White House denied trying to brush off the study group's report and said those recommendations are being considered alongside internal reviews.
But the growing undercurrent of discussions within the administration is shifting responsibility for Iraq's problems to Iraqis. Sources familiar with the deliberations describe fatigue, frustration and a growing desire to disengage from Iraq. The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the deliberations.
and..
On the political front, the administration is focusing increasingly on variations of a "Shiite tilt," sometimes called an "80 percent solution," that would bolster the political center of Iraq and effectively leave in charge the Shiite and Kurdish parties that account for 80 percent of Iraq's 26 million people and that won elections a year ago.
Vice President Cheney's office has most vigorously argued for the "80 percent solution," in terms of both realities on the ground and the history of U.S. engagement with the Shiites, sources say. A source familiar with the discussions said Cheney argued this week that the United States could not again be seen to abandon the Shiites, Iraq's largest population group, after calling in 1991 for them to rise up against then-President Saddam Hussein and then failing to support them when they did. Thousands were killed in a huge crackdown.
The Times reports that progress has been made on a deal that would share the oil revenues of the country, an essential part of any strategy that hopes to restore stability to the region.
My quick take on the Post story is that the Administration still seems remarkably focused on military solutions to our challenges in the Middle East. As we've written here, a great deal of what is now emerging in the Middle East needs diplomatic imagination and a new vision for how all the pieces are going to fit together. For example, the "Shiite tilt" floated above will of course end up strengthening the region's Shiites, including the Iranians and Hezbollah. How does that strategy jibe with our desire to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and bringing stability back to the region? In a recent Post op-ed, a Saudi advisor made it clear that if the US embarked on a "Shiite tilt," it could end up bringing about a regional Sunni-Shiite war.
Where is State? Where is Condi in all this? Is the dismissal of regional talks and diplomacy an ideological decision, or one that pragmatically assumes this Administration does not have the credibility or talent to bring about diplomatic progress? As we evaluate the emerging options from the White House, the prism must be - will it bring stability to the region? And do more than just lessen our domestic political exposure to a worsening situation on the ground in Iraq.
- Simon Rosenberg's blog
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