Democrats in very strong position for 2008

As each day passes the magnitude of the Democratic victory become more clear.  We've offered some initial thoughts in three memos - quick post-election analysis, A day of reckoning for the conservative movement, voters send mandate for a new economic strategy and yesterday in a blog post - the end of the conservative ascendency. 

Since Reagan's election in 1980, there has been perhaps only a single year or so where Democrats were in as good a position as they are today - perhaps from the summer of 1992 to the fall of 1993.  Lets look at some numbers:

- The 2006 election were a highwater mark for Democrats.  The national vote was 53% Democrat, 45% Republican.  In other words, it was a blowout.  Given that Democrats have only broken 50.1 % in one Presidential election since 1948, and havent broken 50% since 1976 these national results are the among the best Democrats have achieved in the last two generations and has to be seen as a significant if not historic accomplishment. 

- While not in control of Congress in recent years, Democrats have been performing very well at the Presidential level.  Democrats have gotten 250 electoral college voters or more in the last four consecutive Presidential elections.  The last that happened was in the 1930s and 1940s.   They have also gotten 48% of the national vote or more in the last three Presidentials, gotten more votes than the GOP in three of the last four, and lost the last two elections by only a single state.  Not all that much has to change for the Democrats to wrest control of the electoral college.

- A 21st century sustainable, electoral majority strategy has emerged for the Democrats.  Democrats won their new Congressional Majorities in the Northeast, Midwest, Plains and West, and now have first non-Southern based Congressional majority in 50 years.  To win the electoral college in 2008, all Democrats will need to do is to hold on to the Gore/Kerry states in the North, a region where Democrats dramatically deepened their hold in 2006; and attempt to flip Ohio (where the GOP suffered an extraordinary meltdown) and some western states, particularly AZ, CO, NM and NV (all of which are trending Democratic, and where the GOP meltdown with Hispanics could dramatically change the game).  Given what happened in 2006, one would have to say that the electoral college is "Leaning Dem" in 2008. 

This new Northeast/Midwest/Plains/West/Southwest-first strategy could be the basis of a sustainable, 21st century national governing majority coalition for Democrats similar to what FDR built in the 20th century. 

- The Republican brand has been deeply degraded.  Even polls in late 2004 before and after the election showed the Democrats with a significant generic party label advantage, meaning that the floor Democrats were starting from heading into 2006 was much higher than many believed.  In a new Newsweek poll, the GOP is at historically low numbers in almost every measure.  When asked about the 2008 Presidential, Democrats were favored by 20 points, 48% to 28%.  Exits and private polling also show a significant erosion of support for Republicans with the fastest and most volatile part of the American electorate, Latinos, and severe degradation with under 30s, the future American voter.  

- In a new poll by Stan Greenberg, the word "conservative" has become almost as unpopular as the word "liberal."

- The Republican Presidential field has been weakened.  Frist and Allen now seem mortally wounded, and McCain I believe is the biggest loser of 2006.   His steadfast support of the Iraq war makes his path more difficult with many independent voters, and his right's reaction to his stance on immigration reform has made his task of winning his primary much harder.  Beyond these three the GOP field become much weaker, with a bunch of possible candidates with significant flaws or who are relatively unknown. 

Going into 2008 Democrats are starting from a remarkably strong position, perhaps their strongest position going into an election since 1975.  They start coming off a significant and deep national win in all regions of the country, and then a great deal of momentum, a strong Presidential field, a great chance to expand the Senate majority in particular, an electoral college trending their way, a new national electoral majority strategy, a Republican brand and conservative movement severely degraded, and a Republican Presidential field weakened.   

While of course a lot can happen between now and 2008, there should be no question that Democrats are leaving 2006 with a strong wind at their back.