The Impact of this Election on Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Tomorrow, America's Voice will release more detailed information on races in which the immigration debate took a prominent role, and how that affected candidates. In the meantime, how might the Democratic gains in the House and Senate affect the likelihood for comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) in 2009? Democrats have a 259-176 majority in the House and 57-40 in the Senate, pending the outcome of a few close races. Of all the Senators who voted for the cloture motion in the Senate, we lost Sen. Biden (D), Sen. Craig (R), and Sen. Hagel (R) - we can expect that the Governor of Delaware will appoint another CIR-friendly Senator - Craig has been succeeded by Jim Risch (R) and Hagel by Mike Johanns (R), both anti CIR. Luckily, there are gains for CIR in the Senate with the loss of anti CIR Senators: Elizabeth Dole (R) and Gordon Smith (R), and the retirement of John Warner (R). With the loss of Sen. Smith to Jeff Merkley (D), both Oregon Senators are now pro-CIR democrats. At least 5 pro-CIR candidates defeated anti-CIR advocates, turning Senate seats around. However, immigration reform will most likely begin in the House this time. There are several House races where pro-CIR Democrats defeated anti-CIR Republicans (click on the candidates to see their stance), that we would like to highlight:

Virginia 2 - Of note, Glenn Nye (D), defeated the fervently anti-CIR Thelma Drake (R) after her 2 terms in Congress. Nye has said that he won't support "amnesty for those who have jumped the line," but since comprehensive immigration reform doesn't call for amnesty, but rather for legalization of the undocumented and placing them at the end of the line of those already waiting for citizenship, his position should not differ from CIR advocates.

Virginia 5 - Tom Pereillo (D) has defeated very anti-immigrant Virgil Goode (R) in a close election, 50%-49%.

Virginia 11 - For Tom Davis's open seat, Gerry Connolly (D) defeated Keith Fimian (R) 53%-45%.

The Republican losses in Virginia serve as proof that anti-immigrant rhetoric does not pay. The Republican-held Virginia State Assembly has spent the last few years concentrating much of its energy on demonizing immigrants and Hispanics, and the Republicans who lost these seats had been major proponents of this strategy and fighters against a solution to the broken immigration system - clearly, there is a price to pay for hate-mongering and for inaction on immigration reform.

Oregon 5 - Rep. Darlene Hooley, a member of the New Dem Caucus, left an open seat and pro-CIR Kurt Shrader (D) defeated Mike Erickson (R) 56%-37% to succeed her.

Connecticut 4 - Jim Himes (D), who was actually born in Peru and lived in Peru and Colombia for the first 10 years of his life and still speaks fluent Spanish, defeated Republican incumbent Chris Shays (R), 51%-48%.

Arizona 1 - Ann Kirkpatrick (D) defeated Sydney Hay (R) for Rep. Rick Renzi's open seat 56% - 40%.

New Mexico 3 - Ben Lujan (D), another Latino joins the House Democrats after defeating Dan East (R), 54%-32%.

New Mexico
2 - Harry Teague (D) defeated Ed Tinsley (R) 55%-45% for Rep. Pearce's open seat.

Colorado 2 - Jared Polis (D), CIR advocate, defeated Scott Starin 62%-34%.

Colorado 4 - Another interesting win for Democrats, Betsey Markey (D) defeated incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R) 56%-44% .

Nevada 3 - Dina Titus(D) ousted incumbent Jon Porter (R), 55%-43%, in this district with a large and growing immigrant population, not to mention the district represents part of a county that contains the large share of the state's total population (Clark County). Titus is for CIR and the DREAM Act.

New York 29
- After 2 terms in Congress, Randy Kuhl (R) was defeated by pro-CIR Eric Massa (D).

Idaho 1 - Incumbent Bill Sali (R) was defeated after 1 term by Walter "Walt" Minnick (D).

Other House Races of Note: In these races, the Dem candidate has defeated the Republican, however, we remain uncertain as to the winner's stance on immigration.

Pennsylvania 11 - Again, hate mongering doesn't pay: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) won his bid for re-election against former Mayor of Hazelton, PA, Lou Barletta (R). While Kanjorski is not exactly a CIR advocate, we can count our blessings that Barletta, who did not miss an opportunity to verbally attack Hispanics and immigrants and who worked to vilify immigrants in their own community, lost this race 52%-48%.

Pennsylvania 3 - Kathy Dahlkemper (D), small business-owner and the first woman elected to Congress from her district, defeated incumbent Rep. Phil English (R), who was very much anti-CIR.

North Carolina 8 - Rep. Robin Hayes (R ) was defeated by challenger Larry Kissell (D).

Ohio 1 - Incumbent Steve Chabot R) was defeated by Steve Driehouse (D), who seems to be for increased enforcement.

Florida 8 - Alan Grayson (D) defeated incumbent Ric Keller (R).

Michigan 7 - Mark Schauer (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Tim Walberg (R).

Senate Races Where CIR Democrat defeated Enforcement-only Republican:
NC
- Kay Hagan (D) v. Incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R), 53%-44%.

CO - Sen. Allard's open seat, Mark Udall (D) v. Bob Schaffer (R) 52%-43%.

NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D) defeated incumbent John Sununu (R), 52%-45%.

VA - Mark Warner (D) defeated Jim Gilmore (R) for John Warner's open seat, 64%-35%.

NM - For Sen. Domenici's open seat (R), Tom Udall (D) defeated Steve Pearce (R), 61%-39%.

Races where CIR Democrat has challenged enforcement-only Republican and results are not final:

AK - Incumbent Ted Stevens (R) v. Mark Begich (D); race too close to call. UPDATE 11/13/08: This morning Begich was declared ahead by about 800 hundred votes, but the count continues.

MN - Incumbent Sen. Coleman v. Al Franken; race too close to call and we hear both campaigns are lawyering up for a battle.

GA - Incumbent Sen. Chambliss (R), who was a loud voice anti-reform in 2007 threatens to return to the Senate. Luckily, the race against Jim Martin (D) is still too close to call. However, we hear that after a challenge against the citizenship of voters in Georgia, around 5,000 ballots were thrown out and not counted. At the same time, Chambliss has allegedly raised an additional $1 million for this race and has called in all the big guns: Sen. McCain, Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich and Giuliani to campaign with him in Georgia before the Dec. 2 run-off election. Martin is good on immigration, so supporters of CIR should remain focused on this race.

Other House Races to Watch:

California 4: In the race to succeed Republican Rep. John T. Doolittle , Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock continues to open a lead, as of the latest totals totals, McClintock led by 451 votes in California's 4th District race. However, pro-CIR Democrats have a majority of the CA delegation, with 34 House seats, to 18 held by enforcement-only Republicans.

Louisiana 2: Nine-term Democratic Rep. William J. Jefferson is awaiting trial on federal corruption charges, but he is still heavily favored to defeat Republican lawyer Joseph Cao in a black-majority, heavily Democratic swath of southeastern Louisiana that includes the bulk of New Orleans.

Maryland 1: State Sen. Andy Harris, who defeated longtime Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest in the Republican primary, trails Democratic county prosecutor Frank M. Kratovil Jr.

Ohio 15. Republican state Sen. Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, a county commissioner in Columbus, by 321 votes, with thousands of provisional votes to be counted.

Washington 8: In suburban Seattle, slow tabulating means a rematch race between two-term Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Darcy Burner. Reichert's lead has grown to 4% with 90% of precincts counted.

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