Term Limits Suspended in New York

New York City -- While most people in America are focused on the national election, political news was made yesterday in New York when Mayor Bloomberg signed a law that suspended term limits so that he may run for a third term.  Prior to signing the law, he made himself available for about four hours of public berating by ordinary people upset with the suspension of term limits.  Then he signed the bill anyway.  Will Bloomberg win?

He may not.  New York has a long history of elected officials overstaying their welcome and ending their careers with a loss.  Mayor Ed Koch--quite popular at first--went out losing to fellow Democrat David Dinkins in a primary.  Mario Cuomo once considered a possible presidential candidate ended his career with a loss to George Pataki.  Even Rudy Giuliani saw his popularity plummet in his last term until resurrected by his reponse to the September 11th attacks. 

While Mayor Bloomberg might have been expected to win a Republican primary--the line he ran on in his two successful races to date--his decision to leave the Republican party effectively blocks that route.  Nor can he run as an independent.  In New York smaller parties are generally controlled by one person and the Mayor is not supported by any of them.

This leaves of course the Democratic line, the one Bloomberg will probably run on.  In this first election, Bloomberg shrewdly switched parties and ran as a Republican to avoid competing in a Democratic primary.  He now evidently thinks he is strong enough to win as a Democrat.

Several factors, however, stand in his way.  First the Democrats have credible candidates.  Controller William Thompson has done an excellent job in his current position and would enjoy strong support among African Americans.  Congressman Anthony Wiener has also announced his candidacy and would compete directly for Bloomberg's middle class base.  Second, the democratic primary is notably more liberal than the general election and some Democrats may resent Bloomberg's switch to the Republican line.  Finally, there is the unknown question of how people will react to Bloomberg's term limit suspension gambit.

Even if he loses the Democratic primary, Bloomberg may found his own party to provide a line for the general election.  However, he will still have to contend with the Republican nominee. John Catsimatidis, head of the Red Apple supermarket chain and well respected for his many public initiatives has business credential comparable to Bloomberg's, for example.

Last but not least, there is Bloomberg's association with Wall Street.  In 2007, he commissioned a study that argued that the American stock market was handicapped by too much regulation including limits on its use of leverage.  It no doubt seemed like a good idea at the time but his opponents may use this to ask whether he was part of the problem.

In short, the bill signed yesterday to suspend term limits continues the Mayor's wining streak.  However, whether it was a brilliant political move or example of the same hubris that has felled other New York city and state officials who believed themselves indispensable is yet to be resolved.

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