The Polls 6 Days Out

Reviewing the excellent daily poll analysis from DemFromCT, we see the Obama-McCain average now at 6, coming in at about 50-44. For the past few days, the race had been at 50-43. 

The trend is the one we've been anticipating here for some time - McCain appears to be in the process of reclaiming ground he should have long occupied but lost due to his terribly disappointing campaign this fall.  Which is why we've been arguing that this slight uptick for McCain is more a sign of his weakness than his strength. The key number to watch now is Obama's - and there is no real evidence of slippage. If he can stay at 49-50-51, he will win, particularly given his continued strength in the key states, a strength that is likely to be very resilient in these last few days due to the deep message penetration of Obama's superior ground effort and paid media advantage. 

In my post yesterday I also speculated that McCain's team at this point may be playing more to prevent a realigning blowout  - in both reality and in the spin game - than to win. That the RNC has now bought ads in Montana and West Virginia provides further grist for this mill: at this point, how can these states really factor one way or the other into McCain's win? 

And speaking of the narrative, will the Obama campaign just step up and buy time in Arizona and try to beat McCain in his own backyard?  As our readers know, we've long been arguing that Arizona would be a competitive state if Obama played there. They have the resources. Will they do it?  It will be interesting to see what kind of ratings Obama's 30-minute ad gets in Arizona tonight and whether that might have any impact there.

So where do we stand six days out?  There is evidence McCain's wavering base is coming home, but with Obama holding steady at 50 percent and showing unyielding Electoral College strength, it is too early to say that McCain is in the process of making the race competitive.


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