The Race has Stablized Now, and Is Essentially Tied
The McCain post-convention bounce appears over now, and we seem to be settling into a within margin of error race. The poll aggregates have McCain up a point or two, but clearly within the margin of error. And that may drop down a bit in the coming days as his bounce subsides. Rasmussen for example has Obama up 2 in their daily track today, after having McCain up earlier this week.
Interestingly, most Electoral College maps still have the race leaning Obama, but very very close. As I wrote the other day the battlefield has narrowed, and there are 10 or states where the campaign will be primarily fought now.
So my conclusion is that this thing is up for grabs, and that it is going to be one hell of a fight. The 1st debate is in just 2 weeks, September 26th. The next 3 coming very soon after that. There can be no doubt now that these debates will very very important.....
- Simon Rosenberg's blog
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