Senate Poll Analysis

Fascinating piece on the eight competitive Senate races, over at TNR, uses slightly more sophisticated methodolgy than normal polls. And guess what? Its a squeeker. As this graph explains "the polling in five of these races is currently favorable to Democrats, in two the Republicans appear to have a lead, and one is just plain too close to call."

The analysys is done by Charles Franklin, an academic at Wisconsin who is also responsible for my new favourite website - Political Arithmetik. It has all manner of fascinating graphical goodness to explore. Sadly, it also has some evidence that the President's approval rating is back up over 40%, even if this doesn't seem to be translating into movement in the generic ballot. And, as this graph nicely points out, there is more than a little dead-cat bounce about his rise.