Clinton rising

We all have our favorite polls. Mine has been the daily Gallup track. Today's track now has it 45%-45% Obama-Clinton, down from 50%-42% Obama-Clinton just two nights ago.

As we head into these critical contests tonight this poll and many others indicate that the Democratic race is going through some kind of structural change, and that the momentum is swinging towards Senator Clinton. I've been asked many times over the last few days why. And I will admit I simply don't know - there didn't appear to be a single large event that could have shifted the race this much. But shift it has, and as of tonight it sure appears that we have a new race on our hands.

Update 1: Rasmussen's Daily Track shows similar movement.

Update 2: Over at Daily Kos Markos offers an interesting take on what the Obama strategy might look like after tonight.

Update 3: Jonathan Alter makes a powerful case that even if Senator Clinton has a good night tonight and begins to capture new found mo', that delegate math makes it neigh impossible for her to pull this thing out. A test of this new mo' will come quick in both Wyoming Saturday and Mississipi next Tuesday.

Update 4: Josh Marshall and his site Talking Points Memo have done a great job of covering the efforts of the conservative Canadian government to inject themselves into the American election, a rather remarkable event. Keep reading his blog to stay on top of this developing story, and check out their most recent piece here.

Update 5: The battleground states. In the fall there are currently 9 states that will likely be the true battleground - CO, FL, IA, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH and VA. Obama has won CO, IA, MO, VA. Clinton NH, NM, NV and now OH. Each candidate has won 4 of the true general election battlegrounds, with Florida yet to have a legitimate content. So this claim by Clinton that she has won where it counts the most seems a little bit of a stretch, though Ohio and Texas were big big wins tonight.

Update 6. The delegates. Kos's first cut has Senator Clinton picking up to between 1 and 5 more delegates last night than Senator Obama. We will have more on this later today.