Has the Democratic race fundamentally changed?

Some of the news reports following Feb 5th suggested that Clinton had blunted Obama's momentum, a momentum that had Obama gaining 15-20 points in the preceding 2 weeks. I wrote that night that I wasn't sure that this was true - has Hillary blunted the momentum and stopped Obama's forward progress?

Tonight it sure looks like that while Hillary did well last Tuesday night she did not blunt Obama mo. At this moment he is winning Nebraska and Washington, two states with almost no African-American populations by two to one. Two to one. He continues to dramatically outraise her, and continues to get many more significant endorsements from both newspapers and elected officials. A new poll of Virginia out today had him winning by 20 points.

The argument from the Clinton world is that she will rebound from a weak February with strong wins in TX and OH on March 4th. But why do we believe this is the case? If Obama is now equal or ahead in the national polls, and his strong night tonight is replicated on Tuesday, don't we believe that Obama will be even or ahead in Texas and Ohio by the end of the coming week? And don't we believe that if Obama wins these states if could be over? If one candidate begins to emerge as the frontrunner the pressure on the weaker one to end their candidacy will be very intense. At this point - given Obama's momentum and strong wins tonight - it is becoming easier to see a path for an outright Obama win than a Clinton one.

My gut is that this scenerio is becoming the most likely scenerio for resolving the Democratic race. In this year when we've seen record citizen participation in the political process it is hard to imagine the Democrats picking a nominee through the equivalent of a backroom deal. However it happens I believe that it will be the voters who end up picking the Democratic nominee, not the Superdelegates or a
brokered Convention, and right now the voters, ed boards and Democratic leaders are increasingly leaning Obama.

But then again each time Senator Clinton has seemed to be on the ropes she has come back strong. So on we go...

Update: I offer some additional thoughts on the primary process in this new piece by Frank Davies in the San Jose Mercury News.

Sun am Update: In a NYTimes op-ed today. Democratic consultant and process expert Tad Devine makes a powerful case for letting the voters - not a back room deal - pick the Democratic nominee.