The Dem race is going to be very close tonight
Given how the states are breaking it is going to be very close tonight. My guess is that Senator Clinton comes out ahead in delegates awarded even if Obama ends up winning more states. The big question is whether the perception tomorrow is that she had a strong enough showing to help her replenish her diminishing finances. My guess is that Obama is on track to win enough tonight to keep his momentum and machine going. But will it be enough for her?
As Josh Marshall writes tonight, HRC is once again outperforming the exit polls. Work needs to be done on why this keeps happening. But it is possible that two of her core groups - women and Hispanics - just keep coming in in higher numbers and more for her than any of the models used to project these things.
Once again the powerful Clinton strategic triad - women, Hispanics, traditonal Democrats - produces for the good Senator from New York.
And one thing that needs to be put to bed tonight is this idea that Barack cannot win white votes. He won CT, DE, ID, KS, MN, ND. Apparently he even won the white vote in California. Obama proved - once again - tonight that he can win white voters. The question that remains is whether he can win Hispanic votes.
In the next week seven states vote. LA, NE and WA Saturday, Maine Sunday, and DC, MD and VA Tuesday. No rest for the weary - another very consequential week ahead.
Update: the chatter now is that night will end with Obama and Clinton even in delegates with Obama winning more states. I was skeptical of this even delegate argument, but if you look at the margins in the states, Obama won many of his states by much larger margins than Hillary won hers. So it is possible.
Obama and Clinton each had good nights tonight. But Obama is in a much stronger position than he was a few weeks ago, showed once again he can go head to head with the Clintons, has a stronger and better funded campaign and nothing tonight stopped the growing mo' he had these last few weeks. Going to be interesting, no doubt.
And what has happened in New Mexico tonight?
- Simon Rosenberg's blog
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