My take so far

So after just a few hours here on the ground and a few conversations with reporters and friends on the various campaigns, I offer these thoughts.

The smart folks here believe Obama is going to win, and that the new WMUR poll is accurately capturing the movement people are feeling on the ground. Not sure we will see a repeat of the "Comeback Kid." McCain seems poised for victory but his numbers are no longer growing as they were.

The new get tough Clinton strategy is really designed for the next month of campaigning before the all important Feb 5th states, as even they concede that winning here tomorrow seems remote. While I understand this new Clinton approach, it seems that anything that drives her favorables down is very very risky - and having her deliver the direct attacks on Edwards and Obama will no doubt drive her numbers down. Remember in this WMUR poll not only did Obama gain 6 points in a day but HRC dropped 4. Any downward movement at this point for Hillary anywhere certainly seems incredibly ominous.

At least 10 candidates will go on from here. The Democratic 4 and the GOP 6. On the Democratic side I think everyone is underestimating how important Nevada may become. If Obama wins here, in NV and SC he will be in an incredible position, with lots of momentum and probably twice as many donors and activists as he has now. It may be that the only place he can be taken down is in Nevada. Watch for that race to heat up.

Though the media has begun to really tank Romney, the guy has finished 2nd in both early states and could easily rebound. But it is hard to see how any of the GOPers have the strength to put the race away quickly, making it more likely that we could be waiting for a GOP nominee until March, or beyond. And I think Rudy and Fred are done, and Paul has enough money to make trouble for a while still.