I agree with EJ - Romney is looking like a very serious candidate now

He's ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire.   Thompson is having a hard time getting going, and Rudy has all sorts of problems.  Will it be Romney?  EJ Dionne takes an interesting look at the former Massachusetts governor today, the candidate who increasingly appears to be the Republican frontrunner.

The rise of Romney also points to something about the relative importance of the national polls at this point.  Personally I dont think they mean all that much.  In the new USA/Gallup poll out today Romney is only at 8% percent nationally, far behind everyone, even McCain.  But he leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, the only place where voters are getting a much indepth look at the candidates - and in these places, where the campaign is engaged, Romney is besting all this rivals.  In Iowa he has opened up a double digit lead.  

The same is true in this new USA/Gallup on the Democratic side.  Hillary leads by a great deal, but in Iowa she is either even with or behind both Obama and Edwards.  In the state where the voters have seen the candidates the most, we see a very different picture. 

As I look to make sense of how the candidates are doing, I look to polls in the early states, money raised and number of supporters, and then to the national polls for guidance.