Invite: Feb 16, 1pm ET - NDN Talks High Crimes with Glenn Kirschner

We are very excited for this episode of NDN Talks - an extended conversation with television commentator and former prosecutor Glenn Kirschner.  Reserve your spot for Tuesday, February 16th at 1pm today. 

While we admired Glenn's commenator on television, what originally drew us to develop a working relationship with Glenn was this terrific legal analysis back in 2018.  In this NBC NewsThink essay, Glenn made a big argument, one which we think is particularly relevant today - that the Department of Justice needs to treat electoral crimes committed by the President as grave crimes, ones which cannot be subject to it's current "no prosecution" policy.  In this essay he wrote:

"If a president can act unlawfully to influence an election, he does not deserve the protections of his ill-gotten office. This incongruity encourages lawlessness in the quest for the presidency and then rewards that lawlessness by inoculating the criminal president against prosecution. Such a construct is dangerous....

We now find ourselves with a president whose crimes may outpace those of Nixon and Clinton. Failing to hold criminal presidents accountable in a court of law arguably emboldens, or at the very least does not dissuade, corrupt individuals from seeking the presidency. At some point, we must learn from our institutional mistakes. Department of Justice officials would be wise to reflect on American history lest we once again succumb to a governmental crisis."

What he is saying here, very clearly, is that if a President cannot be prosecuted for election crimes, then he has ever incentive in the world to cheat with impunity, which is exactly what we saw in both the Ukraine fiasco in 2019 and the months long effort to disrupt and cheat in the 2020 election.  Simon wrote an extended essay about Glenn's argument back in August, in the midst of what we called Trump's original electoral crime spree. 

With the 2nd Trump Impeachment trial starting in a new days we hope help to put Glenn's big argument back into the national debate, as a step we can take to ensure that these dark days don't return to America soon, or perhaps ever.

Glenn's Bio:

Glenn is a former federal prosecutor with 30 years of trial experience. He served in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia for 24 years, rising to the position of Chief of the Homicide Section. In that capacity, Glenn supervised 30 homicide prosecutors and oversaw all homicide grand jury investigations and prosecutions in Washington, DC. Prior to joining the DC U.S. Attorney’s Office, Glenn served more than six years on active duty as an Army Judge Advocate General (JAG) prosecutor, trying court-martial cases and handling criminal appeals, including espionage and death penalty cases. Glenn currently works as an NBC News/MSNBC on-air legal analyst and teaches criminal justice at George Washington University. He has a YouTube channel and Podcast, “Justice Matters with Glenn Kirschner.”

Glenn tried hundreds of cases in his 30 years as a prosecutor, including more than 50 murder trials, multiple lengthy RICO trials and precedent-setting cases.  His cases have been made into major motion pictures (murder conviction of a sophisticated con man who ran in elite DC circles, subject of upcoming film “Georgetown”, starring Vanessa Redgrave, Christoph Waltz and Annette Bening) and TV documentaries (defendant Andre Burno convicted of the ambush shooting of an on-duty police officer, subject of the Emmy Award-winning HBO documentary, “Thug Life in DC”). Glenn has lectured at Federal Bar Association seminars, judicial conferences and professional association events.  He has presented at the National Advocacy Center on the topic of homicide prosecutions and taught advanced criminal law at George Washington University School of Law as an adjunct faculty member. He traveled as a Department of Justice representative to address Ukrainian prosecutors and detectives regarding the U.S. Criminal justice system.   

As an Army JAG, Glenn served as prosecutor at Fort Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, where he handled dozens of court-martial cases and served as legal advisor to Army commanders on criminal justice matters. He then served as an Army appellate attorney at the U.S. Army Legal Services Agency in Falls Church, Virginia, where he handled death penalty and espionage cases, among others.

Glenn attended Washington & Lee University in Lexington, Virginia and was First-Team All American football player in 1983.  In 1987, he graduated with honors from New England School of Law in Boston, where he was named a Trustee’s Scholar. Glenn has received numerous awards, including: the Harold J. Sullivan Award for Fairness, Ethics and Trial Excellence; the John F. Evans Award for Outstanding Advocacy; the Metropolitan Police Department’s Chief of Police Medal of Honor; the United States Attorney’s Office STAR Award; U.S. Army Meritorious Service Medal; Washington & Lee University Athletic Hall of Fame Inductee; and induction in September 2018 into the American College of Trial Lawyers.   

America, the Democratic Party Are Entering A New Age - New Thinking, New Approaches Required Now

A New Era of American Politics, A New One for Democrats Too – In my Atlantic magazine interview with Ron Brownstein I began to articulate in new ways what it was that was driving my decision to step down from NDN – the sense that we were entering a new era for American politics, and that new approaches and new thinking were going to be required now.  NDN was built to operate in a previous age – different challenges for the country, very different media environment, a far more benign domestic political landscape.  NDN has served its purpose, and contributed on many fronts over a long period.  But something new was needed now.

As I work through all this, and listen to all the interesting feedback I’ve gotten from the interview, I offer up this sketch of a framework for where the American center-left needs to head now:

  • Build our politics around two potentially existential challenges, preserving democracy here and abroad, and ensuring the planet doesn’t warm.  The age of globalization, the post Cold War era, has come to an end, a new perhaps more challenging age has begun.  In the short term we will also need to protect the Biden economic agenda from sabotage, and strive to win the big economic argument with the right this year. 
  • Recognize that the Democratic Party is strong, it’s had 3 straight good elections, our emerging leaders can carry us forward, our grassroots is stronger than its ever been.  The American Democratic Party has been the most successful center-left party in the developed world since the Cold War ended.  We have won more votes in 7 of 8 Presidential elections, the best run in US history.  We are strong, not weak; we need to be on offense, not defense.
  • But we have some very important work to do now to ensure we win the battle against MAGA here at home.  We need to get louder, become more effective at challenging the right’s noise machine and information superiority; and we need to expand our coalition, get to 55 percent nationally, and deny MAGA the political oxygen it needs to keep spreading, growing more dangerous. 

NDN was the right vehicle for a different era, a different time.  Now those of us New Dems, liberals, patriots, pragmatists, pro-democracy warriors – whatever it is we are, and will be called – we have a different and perhaps more difficult set of challenges we have to tackle, together.  That’s why NDN is shuttering, and why I am beginning a new stage in my own journey. 

To do a deeper dive on this thinking, check out:

 

Fri, 1pm ET - Simon's Monthly Political Briefing/Discussion

Time again for my monthly, live political briefing and discussion.  I will start with 10-12 minutes of comments on the national political landscape and we will then open it up for discussion.  We also may talk a bit about the transition underway at NDN and what I am thinking about for my post-NDN life. 

You can participate either by Zoom (below) or by watching on my YouTube channel, but as of now only those on Zoom can ask questions. 

RSVP for our event this Friday at 1pm ET here.  Feel free to invite others - the more the merrier!

NDN's Time Has Come To An End - A Note from Simon About Ends, and New Beginnings

Today, I am announcing that I will be stepping back from the leadership of NDN and that the organization itself will start winding down and close in the next few months.   Part of our portfolio, the demographic and electoral/political analysis, will migrate to a new home, Future Majority, very ably run by former NDNer Mark Riddle.  We’ve been partnering with Future Majority on some projects in recent months and I am impressed with their polling and analytical work.  So it’s a good fit.  Other parts of NDN may also head to Future Majority.  We are working on that now and will have more to say about it in the coming days.

As for me, I may be stepping back from NDN, but I’m not stepping back from the broader struggle to ensure freedom and democracy prevails.  I am just going to be coming at our work together from a different place, a different angle, something I am working to put together right now.  So while this is an end to something, it is also a beginning of something new.  I plan on doing a bit more writing and speaking, a little less Tweeting, and am really excited about not running something for the first time in more than 25 years.  As NDN winds down you can stay connected to my commentary through Twitter (for now), my new YouTube channel, and next week I’m launching a substack which will become my primary home during this transition. 

Next Friday at 1pm ET I’ll be hosting my monthly political briefing where I’ll do my regular update on the national political landscape and then perhaps address the transition a bit.  If you want to join RSVP here.  Should be a fun gathering.  Please also watch my latest “With Democrats Things Get Better” presentation which was just recorded yesterday – it’s really good, and is perhaps my most important project in the history of this plucky organization.

There will be time to reflect on what we built with NDN, the good things we accomplished, the ideas we nurtured, the strategies we developed and popularized, the organizations we helped start, the elected officials and innovators we supported, the red waves we called bullshit on. There will be time for that. But looking back this morning at what has mattered most to me, what has really stood out about our work together is how many former NDNers have gone on to make a difference as Members of Congress, senior Administration officials, Presidential campaign managers, heads of their own organizations, Senate chiefs of staff, cable news commentators and even Silicon Valley entrepreneurs.  Am so proud of them for putting their heads down and staying in the fight.  NDN’s original slogan was “New Leaders for a New Time” – and I think we’ve all been true to that sensibility at every step of this journey.  No doubt this has been a great ride, the ride of a lifetime, and there are so many people to thank for making this loose network of builders, doers, innovators and really smart people possible.  I am still trying to figure out how to do that.  More on all this, soon.

Finally, I felt like this was the right time to step back a bit for the Democratic Party is strong right now.  We just had our third consecutive “good” election.  In 2022 we defied history and gained ground in 7 of the most important battleground states – AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA (so amazing!!!!). Joe Biden has been a very good President and will have a very strong case for re-election.  Our rising leaders are as promising and impressive as any time I’ve been in the business.  Our candidates are outraising Republicans by significant margins, and our grassroots is stronger than its ever been.  We have a lot of work to still do of course.  MAGA remains too much of a threat.  But the Democratic Party is strong right now, and it just seemed like the right time for me to step back, take a deep breath and begin my next chapter.

With much gratitude, humility, hope and excitement, I just want to say thanks to all of you for giving me this opportunity to have been part of such an interesting and important project for so long.  I was never bored; don’t think we were ever boring; and I know we did some good along the way.  It’s really all you can ask for in life.

Sending all sorts of Hopium your way, Simon

New Simon Political Briefing/Hangout

On Friday, February 3, 2023 Simon did a live political briefing and discussion with our community.  It was full of data, good conversation and of course, Hopium.  You can watch here, and connect a litlte with some our latest thinking below.  Enjoy!

A Real Economic Debate Has Begun - Democrats Must Win It - In a new post Simon discusses the need for Democrats to win the economic debate with Republicans this year, and reminds us just how strong the economy has been under Biden and Democratic Presidents more broadly.  Some key points:

  • US at lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
  • GDP growth is 3.4% - 3x what it was under Trump
  • US economic recovery from COVID better than any other G7 nation
  • Almost 2 jobs for every unemployed person, new business starts/wages at elevated levels
  • Deficit and trade deficit lower, energy prices and inflation also continuing to drop
  • Of 47m jobs created since 1989, 45m- 96% - have been created under Dem Presidents
  • Domestic crude oil production will set record this year (no Biden war on energy)

As part of this effort to help arm center-left info warriors with the very best data and arguments, we’ve dropped a new and significantly updated With Democrats Things Get Better presentation.  It is a lively deep dive on Biden, Dems and the economy and well worth watching.   To learn more, and find the video recording visit here.

 Other Related material - January Jobs Report - Economy Remains Strong, 10.7m Biden Jobs,  Some Economic Questions for House Republicans

Simon's Political Briefing: Fighting the Red Wave, Two Elections, The Democratic Party Is Strong - A few weeks ago Simon held a live Zoom based discussion with the NDN community where he offered his early take on the new Congress and the relative strength of the two parties as we enter a new election cycle.  You can watch it and get additional resources here. His top takeaways:

  • Dems head into the 2024 cycle the stronger party, GOP still too MAGA
  • Dems have 3 big priorities now – keep economy growing/prevent GOP sabotage, win the war in Ukraine/defend democracy, fix the immigration system
  • McCarthy has yielded to extremists, MAGA still far too powerful in the GOP

In the briefing Simon also discusses the new front page NYT story, The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed A False Election Narrative, which chronicles NDN’s battle against right-wing election narratives in the 2022 election.  Last week Simon’s work in fighting the red wave narrative was cited in a Daily Beast story about Nate Silver and 538, and the LATimes' David Lauter cites Simon's "two elections" analysis:

"All of that is consistent with a theory put forward by Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg — that 2022 played out as two very different elections happening at the same time, one in battleground states where Democrats did very well, the other in the rest of the country."

NDN and Future Majority Host “Get Louder” Event with MeidasTouch, Courier Newsroom, Resolute Square and DSR Network – Last Wednesday NDN and Future Majority hosted a remarkable live gathering of innovative media leaders.  We brought together bringing four organizations we think are doing exemplary work, and need greater attention in DC and across the country.  We were joined by:

You can learn more, get streaming info here.  Simon has also posted a new essay about why this event is important, and why Democrats need to really focus now on getting louder.  This was a really terrific discussion and well worth your time. 

On His Way to Mexico, Biden Kicks Off Important Immigration Debate Here in the US – On his way to meeting with the leaders of Mexico and Canada, President Biden offered an intelligent new plan to address the unprecedented flow of migrants to the our southern border.  It would accept an elevated level of asylum seekers with fiscal sponsors from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, while using temporary authorities to turn back those who don’t fit these new requirements.  An important new debate about immigration and the border has begun, and NDN is hopeful, given the GOP’s obvious concern about these issues, that a bi-partisan legislative package to modernize our immigration system could get to the President’s desk this year.  

Two recent op-eds, Farah Stockman in the NYTimes and David Ignatius in the Washington Post, provide helpful context.  In a Washington Post essay, Greg Sargent cites Simon on how the President should approach this debate:

As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg points out, the four border states are represented by five Democratic senators and only two Republican ones — and by three Democratic governors. Big gains in the Southwest are one of the party’s biggest political success stories. Shouldn’t the immigration debate reflect this?

“It’s important that these voices become much louder,” Rosenberg told me. “Democrats have to stop allowing the debate to be dominated by Republicans and extremists.”

Understanding the Nature of the Conflict We Are In – 2023 has already provided several vivid reminders that despite the 2022 election being a very good one for Democrats, the threat of MAGA and its allies, here and abroad, remains a very real one.  Creating a far better understanding of the nature of this new conflict America and pro-democracy forces find themselves in, and forging a long-term plan to ensure democracy prevails here and abroad has become one of the center-left’s most important responsibilities now. 

Our defense of democracy in WWII and the Cold War was one of the Democratic Party’s most important achievements.  It appears history is calling on us once again.  In a new Spanish language essay in Mexico's El Universal, Univision anchor Leon Krauze quotes Simon extensively about the dangers of the GOP's descent into illiberalism. 

 

With Democrats Things Get Better - NDN's Deep Dive into Biden, Dems and the Economy

The new House Republican leadership has made it clear that we are going to be having a big economic and fiscal debate this year.  To help the center-left family prepare for that debate (and win it!) we will be updating and showing our influential With Democrats Things Get Better presentation throughout the year.  With Dems takes a deep dive into decades of data and finds when Democrats have been in power, things have repeatedly gotten better.  We've seen growth, lots of jobs created, lower deficits, progress.  With Republicans we've seen something very different.  The last 3 Republican Presidents have brought recession, spiraling deficits, decline. 

As we often say this story - repeated Dem economic success, repeated R economic failure - remains the most important, least understood story in American politics today.  It is a story that needs to be told in 2023, a story the center-left needs to be very very loud about.  

We've just dropped a new version of With Dems recorded on Thursday, Feb 16th.  You can watch it here.  Every time we present With Dems it has new and fresh data and analysis, so even if you saw it a few months ago.

To learn more about the big arguments in With Dems start with our recently published analysis The Economy Remains Strong, 10.7 Biden Jobs, a related thread, and an essay, The Case for Optimism, Rejecting Trump's Poisonous Pessimism, which was the basis of the earliest version of this presentation.  We have also frequently written over the past few years about the need for the center-left to get far more intentional about winning the economic argument with MAGA and the Republicans.  Given our repeated strong performance we shouldn't be losing the economic argument to these guys. 

We strongly recommend reviewing David Leonhardt’s NYT essay "Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?" It makes very similar arguments and has lots of terrific and useful charts.  Maria Cardona cites our research in her CNN column, as does David Rothkopf in this USA Today essay.   Mike Tomasky’s rave review of With Dems in a recent Daily Beast column is a great read.  Mike writes: “Simon Rosenberg heads NDN, a liberal think tank and advocacy organization. He has spent years advising Democrats, presidents included, on how to talk about economic matters. Not long ago, he put together a little PowerPoint deck. It is fascinating. You need to know about it. The entire country needs to know about it."  We agree of course!

The deck has been revamped to include a new, longer section on the strong economic recovery under President Biden.  Some of the key stats from that section, and a graph:

  • GDP growth 3x Trump, 6x as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents combined
  • best COVID recovery in G7
  • lowest unemployment rate in 53
  • lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
  • very elevated wage gains/new business starts
  • 2 job openings per unemployed person, a record
  • real earnings up in 2022, trade deficit/deficit down
  • historic investments in our future prosperity (infrastructure, CHIPs, climate, health care)
  • domestic oil production on track to set records in 2023

Finally, our understanding of the American economy and the role of inflation was heavily influenced over the past year by the writings of our long time collaborator, Rob Shapiro. Rob wrote in January that employment was booming at historic levels, in May that inflation was having little effect on people’s incomes, in July that pundits’ talk about recession was flat-out wrong, in August that Americans were clearly better economically off under Biden, and in October that Democrats should tout their economic record.  Like the red wave, we think too many commentators in 2022 bought into the "inflation is killing the Democrats" narrative far too easily.

You can find even more background below.  Thanks for your interest, and we hope to catch you at one of our upcoming presentations!

Background on With Dems

The impetus for With Dems comes from the big argument Donald Trump started making in his 2016 campaign - that this new age of globalization ushered in after the end of the Cold War had weakened the United States, leading to his infamous phrase "American carnage."

At NDN we always found that argument misguided and wrong. When Trump came to office the US had a very low unemployment rate, record high stock market, declining deficits and rapidly growing incomes for American workers. The uninsured rate was the lowest of the modern era, crime rates were half of what they'd been, and the flow of undocumented immigrants to the border was a fraction of what it was in the Bush and Clinton years.  The world was largely at peace, a great deal of the world was modernizing and growing, and a global effort to address climate change was picking up steam.  While things weren't perfect, what President Trump inherited when he came to office were some of the best overall geopolitical, societal and economic conditions America had seen in decades.  It is something Simon discusses at length in this Medium essay.

So over the past few years we've been talking about just how wrong former President Trump was about this great country and its achievements.  It has driven a great deal of our research and advocacy and the creation of an earlier version of With Democrats Things Get Better called Patriotism and Optimism.  In the spring of 2020 we retooled Patriotism and Optimism into our new presentation, With Dems, which is a data filled look at America during this age of globalization, and how each party has navigated its challenges while in the White House. 

Central to this presentation is the notion that the Democratic and Republican parties aren't mirror images of one another, but rather that they have followed separate, organic pathways in a big, diverse country like the US. The result of this differing evolution is that the Democrats have been a remarkably successful governing party since 1989, while the Republicans have presided over three straight recessions, historic foreign policy failures and a deeply dangerous embrace of illiberalism.  

One thing we discuss in With Democrats is how Americans who have grown up in this post-1989 era - those under 45 - understand this divergence, and view the parties very differently as a result. In 2018, voters under 45 voted for Democrats by a margin of 25 points, whereas in the seven elections from 1992 to 2004, voters under 45 (who had grown up in a fundamentally different political era) voted for Democrats by an average margin of just 0.3 points.  This trend has continued in both the 2020 and 2022 elections. 

We hope you enjoy this new project and do note that one of our existing programmatic areas, Countering Illiberalism's Rise, has some overlap with the work you will find here.  Simon's 2020 essay, "Build Back Better/Reconstruir Mejor - Joe Biden's Historic Opportunity" in the Mexican-based intellectual journal Letras Libres, addressed many of the themes we explore in With Dems and offered some thoughts on the big challenges facing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. A passage: "A President Biden would have an extraordinary opportunity to do what he calls “build back better” here in America, and around the world. It would be wise for Biden to view this moment as the beginning of a new era, a generational long project to reset America and the world after a collective trauma.  Perhaps the most analogous moment in our history would be the years after World War II in which new institutions were established around a new vision for humankind."

We hope you enjoy With Dems, and if you do, please invite others to come experience it too. It is free and open to the public – all are welcome. 

Related Readings

Build Back Better/Reconstruir Mejor - Joe Biden's Historic Opportunity - Simon Rosenberg, Letras Libres, 10/1/20 - In a new essay for the influential journal Letras Libres, Simon offer his thoughts about what Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the Democrats should fight for if they prevail in the election this fall (English and Spanish). 

Crossing the Rubicon - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 1/29/20 - The GOP's increasing acceptance of illiberalism and actions at odds with our democratic tradition to gain/maintain power has become the most important political story of our time.

To Defeat Illiberalism, Democrats Must Embrace Their Success As A Governing Party - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 12/14/19 - Over the past 30 years, the Democratic Party has been the most successful center-left party in the developed world.   It is time it started acting like it, and begin to far more purposefully lead the fight against rising illiberalism here and abroad. 

Americans Under 45 Are Breaking Hard Toward The Democrats - And For Good Reason - Simon Rosenberg and Chris Taylor, NDN, 8/2/19 - Among the most significant political developments of the Trump era is the dramatic shift of under 45 year old voters towards the Democrats. From 2000 to 2016 D margin w/under 45s was 6 points. In 2018 it was 25. 

In New Global Age, Dems Have Produced Prosperity, the GOP Decline - Chris Taylor, Medium, 1/29/19.  Since 1989, Democrats have overseen strong and inclusive economic growth when in the White House, while the Republican Presidents have repeatedly seen economic under-performance and even recession and decline. 

The Case for Optimism: Rejecting Trump's Poisonous Pessimism, Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 6/2/17. In an essay that originally was published on Medium, Simon argues that the great rationale of Trump's Presidency  –  that America is in decline – simply isn't true, and must be challenged more forcefully. 

Chin Up, Democrats, Simon Rosenberg, US News and World Report, 1/20/17. In his column, Simon argues that Democrats should have pride in their historic accomplishments and optimism about the future of their politics. This one is very relevant to the presentation itself. 

A Center-Left Agenda for the Trump Era - Simon Rosenberg, US News and World Report, 12/9/16.  In the early days after Trump's election, Simon layed out a possible agenda for the Democrats centering on prosperity, security, shoring up the American led liberal order and ambitious efforts to reform our political system. 

Older, Related Work

An Enduring Legacy: The Democratic Party and Free and Open Trade Jan 21, 2014 - The global system created by Presidents FDR and Truman has done more to create opportunity, reduce poverty and advance democracy than perhaps any other policies in history. 

TIME Features NDN Economic Analysis, Chart, Labels It "Most Important Chart in American Politics" Feb 5, 2013 - Michael Scherer of Time reports on the influence Dr. Rob Shapiro's analysis has had on shaping recent thinking about how the American economy is changing.

"Forward, or Backward?" - The Descent of the GOP Into A Reactionary Mess 10/25/12 - In a new magazine essay, Simon argues that the more the world moves away from the simplicity of the Reagan moment the more angry and defiant the Republican offering is becoming.  In both Spanish and English.

Crafting an American Response to the Rise of the Rest, January 21, 2010, Cross posted on NDN.org and Salon.com.  Simon argues that the second generation Obama narrative must be a strategic response to the most significant transformation taking place in the world today, the rise of new global economic powers, or what Fareed Zakaria has called the “rise of the rest.”

The 50 Year Strategy, November/December 2007, Mother Jones. Simon and Peter Leyden offer a landmark vision for how progressives can win and prosper in the decades to come.

Video: "With Democrats Things Get Better" (1/26/23)

The new House Republican leadership has made it clear that we are going to be having a big economic and fiscal debate this year.  To help the center-left family prepare for that debate (and win it!) we will be updating and showing our influential With Democrats Things Get Better presentation throughout the year.  With Dems takes a deep dive into decades of data and finds when Democrats have been in power, things have repeatedly gotten better.  We've seen growth, lots of jobs created, lower deficits, progress.  With Republicans we've seen something very different.  The last 3 Republican Presidents have brought recession, spiraling deficits, decline. 

As we often say this story - repeated Dem economic success, repeated R economic failure - remains the most important, least understood story in American politics today.  It is a story that needs to be told in 2023, a story the center-left needs to be very very loud about.  

You can watch the latest With Dems presentation from January 26th, 2023 here.

To learn more about the big arguments in With Dems start with our recently published analysis The Economy Remains Strong, 10.7 Biden Jobs, a related thread, and an essay, The Case for Optimism, Rejecting Trump's Poisonous Pessimism, which was the basis of the earliest version of this presentation.  We have also frequently written over the past few years about the need for the center-left to get far more intentional about winning the economic argument with MAGA and the Republicans.  Given our repeated strong performance we shouldn't be losing the economic argument to these guys. 

We strongly recommend reviewing David Leonhardt’s NYT essay "Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?" It makes very similar arguments and has lots of terrific and useful charts.  Maria Cardona cites our research in her CNN column, as does David Rothkopf in this USA Today essay.   Mike Tomasky’s rave review of With Dems in a recent Daily Beast column is a great read.  Mike writes: “Simon Rosenberg heads NDN, a liberal think tank and advocacy organization. He has spent years advising Democrats, presidents included, on how to talk about economic matters. Not long ago, he put together a little PowerPoint deck. It is fascinating. You need to know about it. The entire country needs to know about it."  We agree of course!

The deck has been revamped to include a new, longer section on the strong economic recovery under President Biden.  Some of the key stats from that section, and a graph:

  • GDP growth 3x Trump, 5x as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents combined
  • best COVID recovery in G7
  • lowest unemployment rate in 50 yrs
  • lowest poverty/uninsured rates ever
  • very elevated wage gains/new business starts
  • 2 job openings per unemployed person, a record
  • real earnings up in 2022, trade deficit/deficit down
  • historic investments in our future prosperity (infrastructure, CHIPs, climate, health care)
  • domestic oil production on track to set records in 2023

Finally, our understanding of the American economy and the role of inflation was heavily influenced over the past year by the writings of our long time collaborator, Rob Shapiro. Rob wrote in January that employment was booming at historic levels, in May that inflation was having little effect on people’s incomes, in July that pundits’ talk about recession was flat-out wrong, in August that Americans were clearly better economically off under Biden, and in October that Democrats should tout their economic record.  Like the red wave, we think too many commentators in 2022 bought into the "inflation is killing the Democrats" narrative far too easily.

You can find even more background here.  Thanks for your interest, and we hope to catch you at one of our upcoming presentations!

The Return of Our Saliency Index, 2023 Edition

The Return of Our Saliency Index, 2023 Edition

As part of our election analysis last cycle we spent time looking at and discussing the concept of salience in public opinion research.  I began producing something called the “Saliency Index,” which uses Navigator Research data on the “most important issue” question and broke it out by party (see here for more on the methodology).  Here a new Saliency Index, below, using Navigator data from their latest poll completed on January 9th, with comparisons to ones run in 2021 and 2022. 

We are going to reboot this project this year because I have become convinced that the way the “most important issue” question was used (badly) last cycle was part of why so many analysts got the election so wrong.  Given the power of right wing media today, I don’t know that we can really be talking about a single national political discourse any more.  There’s the conversation happening inside the right wing bubble, and then there is everything else.  And I think it is far more instructive for political analysts to acknowledge this reality, and recognize that the candidates of the two parties are operating in entirely different information universes. 

We also like the was Navigator asks the question for they allow people to choose their top 4 issues.  It gives far more information than the way it is often asked which is to name your single top issue.  Not sure anyone really looks at the world that way.  There is never only one thing we focus on in life.  It is about managing our competing interests and responsibilities, not choosing one among them all.  We just think this is a far better way to ask the question. 

Looking at the data above, note that vast differences in the Dem and GOP electorates on issues like immigration, climate, guns, even inflation.  For my friends in the Democratic Party, understanding these differences matters, for sometimes I think we get dragged into engaging on issues of great salience/importance to GOP voters but which are of marginal salience to ours because of the power of the right wing noise machine and simple math – if you only ask the question for all voters, issues of great salience to Rs will rise to the top even if they are of marginal salience to those voters available to us. 

In my own journey through political data and analysis over the past year I've come to believe, strongly, that those doing analysis need to work harder to push beyond facile data and intrepretations which can far more simplistic and distorting than descriptive.  The problems with the "most important issue" question is similar in my mind to what are very simplistic reads on the 2022 elections with a national data set when it was clear, very clear, that there were two elections in 2022 - a bluer one in the battlegrounds, a redder one outside.  Failure to capture that level of detail will make most analysis of 2022 just off, for a decline in Dem performance from either 2018 or 2020 overall fails to capture the gains Dems made in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA, or that we picked up Senate seats, Govs races and state legislative districts.  Any attempt to paint 2022 as an election where Dems fell back against previous benchmarks is "red wavey," even sophistry. 

Memo: We Need To Get Louder

Next Wednesday, January 18th, NDN is co-hosting an event with Future Majority with 4 really exciting new media organizations – MeidasTouch, Courier Newsroom, Resolute Square and DSR Network.  I wanted to do this event to help jumpstart a conversation in the pro-democracy, center-left family on the urgent need for us to “get louder” to more effectively counter the very capable right wing noise machine here in the US.

As an old War Room guy and former television news producer and writer, I’ve been working on ways for the center-left to be more effective and better communicators for a long time.  But it was my work in this last election cycle that really brought home to me how important it is we all get a lot louder in the next few years.  So much of the past cycle was dominated by right wing memes, often shouted one word indictments – Inflation! Red Wave! Recession! Afghanistan! Socialist! Fentanyl! CRT! Woke!.. it goes on and on, relentlessly, defining the terms of our national discourse, forcing the center-left to begin every debate in a Fox dug hole.  In my more than 30 years in the game I’ve never experienced a national discourse that so favored the right, without merit.  It’s a big problem for the center-left and democracy more broadly.

During my own journey these last few months I came across a whole new set of institutions who are working on what I call the loudness problem.  Some of them are organic grassroots organizations which have sprung up in recent years, organized over Zoom, many affiliated with Swing Left or Indivisible.  But the groups we are bringing together on the 18th are media organizations, with large ambitions to reach many people, and help bring our voices, sensibilities, arguments to millions of more people, every day.  All of this work – small self-organized grassroots groups, and these larger media orgs – are part of a much bigger wave of innovation happening on our side than many understand.  Proud patriots are stepping up across the country, building new capacities of various sizes and ambitions, to help ensure MAGA does not prevail, that our democracy is there for future generations as it was for us.  Some of those patriots ran for office these past few cycles; others raised money, knocked on doors, wrote postcards to swing voters; others are building these new, exciting media organizations – MeidasTouch, Courier Newsroom, Resolute Square, DSR Network. 

So this event will be the first of what I hope is a series of events this cycle exploring ways we can get louder.  I hope you will join us next week, and think of ways you can do your part to spread the good Democratic word, be yourself an information warrior for our democracy.  That idea – all of us becoming info warriors, doing our part in making us louder every day and overwhelming the right wing noise machine – is something we will be discussing much more in the days to come. 

More on Our Need To Get Loud

Video: "Getting Louder" w/MeidasTouch, Courier, Resolute Square, DSR Network

Video: Staying On Offense, Being Loud - A Conversation with Tara McGowan

Memo: The Democratic Party Is Strong, Rs Remain All MAGA - NDN's Post-Election Take

Some Thoughts on Democrats and "Loudness"

Memo: Dems Need To Focus On Winning The Economic Argument

Re-imagining the Parties In An Age of Hacking, Disinformation

Video: "Getting Louder" w/MeidasTouch, Courier, Resolute Square, DSR Network

On January 18th NDN and Future Majority hosted an inspiring discussion with the leaders of 4 increasingly important pro-democracy, center-left media organizations:

You can watch the event here.

It is perhaps more important than ever before that those fighting to preserve democracy here and around the world find ways to counter the enormous propaganda machines of the global right.  That’s why pulled together these four inspiring digital entrepreneurs to talk about their projects, their vision and to offer their insights about the vital work ahead.  See this related NDN memo which goes in depth about the need for the center-left and pro-democracy forces to "get louder."

These four new projects all build on the pioneering work of organizations like Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo, Crooked Media and the Bulwark, and more traditional outlets like the New Republic, The Nation and Washington Monthly. We are excited to see so much compelling innovation happening in this space, and look forward to bringing this exciting work to you. 

Simon Rosenberg of NDN moderated the discussion, and Mark Riddle of Future Majority orvided closing remarks. 

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