For The Holidays - NDN's Most Important Political Analysis from 2022

We've put together our most important political analysis from 2022 for your holiday reading/listening/viewing pleasure:

Memo: The Democratic Party Is Strong, Rs Remain All MAGA – This is NDN’s main post-election analysis.  The bottom line - Democrats had their 3rd consecutive impressive election, and head into the 2024 cycle in strong shape. The Rs are still all MAGA all the time.  We would much rather be us than them.

Video: Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier 2022 Election Briefing – On 12/14/22 Tom and Simon came together for their most extended discussion of the 2022 election to date.  Mark Riddle of Future Majority and Tara McGowan of Courier Newsroom help guide the spirited conversation.

Fighting the Red Wave - A Recap of Our Heralded 2022 Election Analysis - We've put our campaign to fight the "red wave" media narrative all in one place.  We are pleased that we got it right, as it puts us in good shape to do even better in 2024. 

Video: Democrats and the Hispanic Vote - A New NDN Presentation - NDN has been arguing for some time that the media narrative about Democrats and Hispanic/Latino voters is just wrong.  Our growing margins with Hispanic voters nationally and in many states may be the Democratic Party's biggest partywide success story of the past 25 years.  This new presentation, released in October, goes through the history of the Hispanic vote, and suggests 2022 would be even better than 2020 in the Southwest - which it was. 

This new Natasha Korecki NBC News article, Republicans struggle in the Southwest as Latino voters stick with Democrats, features our analysis:

..."The Southwest was once deep-red territory. But Republicans are struggling to regain their grip. It's in part because they've alienated Latinos by taking more hardline stances, including on immigration, according to Simon Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist who was part of the party’s early team that helped develop modern strategies for reaching Latino voters. Rosenberg said the Southwest today is a far cry from what it once was under former President George W. Bush. 

“This was once hostile terrain for us,” Rosenberg said. “Over the last 20 years, the Republican position has significantly deteriorated in the Southwest. And that’s indisputable.”'

Democrats Did Well With Young Voters – In a new Twitter thread, Simon goes through the data that is available to us so far, and contrary to som red wavey reporting this week, Dems did well with young voters in 2022.  It is our hope that commentators learn from the many red wave mistakes of 2022, and are more careful with their analysis in the months ahead. 

With Democrats Things Get Better - Our signature presentation, With Dems is a data-filled journey through American politics over the past generation.  And what we learn is with Democrats things get better.  With Rs, not so much.  This edition was recorded on December 6th, and the core data has been updated and is fresh.

Front Line Reports From the Information WarsA New Deep State Radio Podcast - Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter has made many re-evaluate the role of social media and new media. As people who work primarily in and around social and new media, David Rothkopf, Tara McGowan, and Simon talk about how Democrats need to step up and take on these challenges. How should we engage on social media? Do Progressives need to build their own media ecosystem? What can we learn from Republicans? Find out on this thought provoking conversation.

Video: Staying On Offense, Being Loud - A Conversation with Tara McGowan - Our conversation with Courier Newsroom's Tara McGowan about battling the rightwing noise machine was one of the most interesting and enjoyable conversations we've had all year.  We hope you can check it out. 

Video: A Conversation With Bill Kristol About the Anti-MAGA GOP - We are pleased that Bill Kristol, one of the leaders of the anti-MAGA movement inside the GOP, joined us for a spirited and timely discussion about the future of the once proud Party of Lincoln and Reagan.  Do watch - it was a compelling conversation.

Can Republicans Come Back from the Extreme? - Guardian Politics Weekly Podcast - As 2022 draws to a close, Jonathan Freedland speaks to Simon Rosenberg and Sarah Longwell about their predictions for how US politics will shake out in 2023. Can the Democrats capitalise on a weary electorate, can the Republicans finally get rid of the spectre of Donald Trump, and who will announce their intention to run in 2024?

A New Center-Left Rises in the West to Counter Putin, Illiberalism - Center/center-left governments keep getting elected in the West.  It's possible we are seeing a powerful new political movement emerge as a response to the growing threat of illiberalism. 

December Jobs Report - Economy Remains Strong and Dynamic, 10.5m Biden Jobs – Another strong jobs report for President Biden. 5 times as many jobs have now been created in Joe Biden's first 22 months than in Presidencies of the two Bushes and Trump combined.  Repeated Dem successes, repeated GOP failures must become better known in our politics.

Finally, some notable mentions of NDN’s success in calling the election this year:

"There was no red wave. Few laid out such a case more forcefully and consistently than Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, who had presented his arguments in this pre-election podcast, in interviews and on his Twitter feed. A flood of low-quality partisan surveys really did skew the polling averages to the right, as Rosenberg had asserted, while higher-quality nonpartisan polls proved to be much more accurate." - Blake Hounshell, NYT

"Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist, was telling anyone who would listen that the seeming movement to Republicans in the final weeks of the race was misleading – fueled by a series of Republican-sponsored polls that moved polling averages in a more favorable direction for the GOP. He was right. Period." - Chris Cillizza, CNN, "Winners and Losers In the 2022 Election So Far"

"The only person I paid any attention to about polls is @SimonWDC who was always right." - Lawrence O'Donnell, The Last Word, MSNBC

"Let's all give some credit to @SimonWDC, who has faced relentless abuse for simply arguing all along that this election would be a competitive one, which proved prescient. Here's my interview with him way back in July, and he didn't waver off this case" - Greg Sargent, The Washington Post

"The guy who got the midterms right explains what the media got wrong" - Nicole Narea, Vox

"MAGA performance issues? No better example than the last three elections. @SimonWDC does a deep dive into the why and how the #2022Midterms turned out pretty much the way he said it would." - Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, The Michael Steele Podcast

"Any thoughts on the polls?....Who won the Nate off? Is Simon Rosenberg our God now? I think so. Yes on Simon Rosenberg." Pod Save America, Episode 693, 59th Minute

"When all the experts were predicting a 'red wave,' one man called BS. He got the midterms right, and never backed down. On today's podcast, I ask @SimonWDC what he saw—& why he never backed down. (He also names names.) Don't miss this conversation!" - Matt Lewis, Matt Lewis Podcast

"While many analysts acknowledged that they were caught off guard by the midterm results, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said there was evidence back in the spring that his party would overperform." - Melanie Mason, LATimes

"Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has been saying for months that the widely predicted Republican “red wave” in the midterm elections was greatly exaggerated and that Democrats would remain competitive in races across the country.

Rosenberg, whose hypothesis was roundly rejected by pundits on both sides of the aisle, was vindicated after the shockingly lackluster GOP showing at both the state and national levels this week.  Ben Samuels, Haaretz, 'Red Wave'? This Democratic Strategist Said All Along It Wasn't Coming

"If Democrats do better than expected, @SimonWDC is gonna look like a genius" - Jonathan Alter, 10/26/22

.....To a restful holiday season, and to a productive and exciting New Year!