US Economy And Trade Policy

NDN has written extensively on trade policy under the Trump administration and the state of the economy more broadly under the past three Presidents. Below you can find economic and political analysis of Trump's unprecedented experiment in protectionism since 2018, the state of the Trump economy compared to that of Obama, and the effect of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Biden, A New Day

Rob Shapiro on the Biden Boom - 12/17/21 - Rob Shapiro has published a new must read in the Washington Monthly - "It's A Biden Boom - And No One Has Noticed Yet."

40m of 42m new jobs since 1989 have come under Dem Presidents - 12/9/21 - In some of our recent work we've come across a stat we just can't stop looking at - since 1989, and a new age of globalization began, America has seen 42m new net new jobs created.  40m of those have come under the last 3 Dem Presidents - 95%. 

3 Times As Many Biden Jobs As Bushes, Trump Combined - 12/3/21 - More jobs have been created in Joe Biden's first 10 months than in Presidencies of the two Bushes and Trump combined.  Repeated Dem successes, repeated GOP failures must become better known in our politics. 

Infrastructure - an historic investment in our future, in the young people of America, in doing - 11/18/21 - The newly signed infrastructure legislation is a remarkable set of investments in the young people of America, and will make their lives, all of their lives, better.  It is important that they come to understand that in the days ahead. 

The Infrastructure Bill Is A Big Deal - 8/4/21 - Universal broadband. Modernization of roads, bridges, rail, public transit.  Dramatic upgrades of our water systems, electricity grid and EV charging networks. This thing is a big deal.

Video: Globalization, the US and Economic Nostalgia w/Adam Posen (6/29/21) - We are excited to have been able to welcome the Peterson Institute's Adam Posen for a discussion of his provocative and compelling new essay in Foreign Affairs, "The Price of Nostalgia:America's Self-Defeating Economic Retreat." 

Video: NDN Talks The American Rescue Plan w/Dr. Rob Shapiro (3/16/21) - NDN recently hosted noted economist and long time NDN collaborator Dr. Rob Shapiro for an in-depth look at the landmark American Rescue Plan. This episode of NDN Talks will be helpful to anyone who wants to learn more abou this landmark legislation.

Memo: Some Thoughts on The Path Forward - 6/28/21 - In a new essay, Simon offers some thoughts on the path forward for the center-left as we head into the July 4th holiday.  Three priorities now - defeat COVID, keep creating jobs, defend democracy.  Get infrastructure to the President's desk by August.

Memo: A Summer To Do List for Democrats - Defeat COVID, Defend Democracy, Keep Creating Jobs -  6/9/21 - Democrats have important work to do this summer - defeat COVID, defend democracy and make sure the American people know the recovery has come about through Joe Biden's smart and effective economic plans. 

Trade Policy

NDN Applauds New Democrat Coalition Letter On Section 232 Auto Tariffs - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/13/20 - NDN is pleased to pass along a letter released today by the New Democrat Coalition that strongly criticizes the President for withholding the Section 232 report on potential auto tariffs that the President is legally required to release to Congress.

The Threat Of Trump's Trade Agenda - Chris Taylor, The Washington Monthly, 1/23/20 - In a new piece for the Washington Monthly, Chris Taylor examines how Democrats should construct their new trade agenda, and challenge the President's reckless trade policies, now that the USMCA has been successfully passed. You can also find an excerpt of the piece posted to NDN's website here.

Congress Must Have A Robust Post-USMCA Trade Agenda - Chris Taylor, NDN, 1/7/20 - It is critical that Congress doesn't wash its hand of trade policy now that the USMCA debate is over, because the President's larger, destructive trade strategy continues to erode the global rules-based trade system.

Trump Concedes The Trade War To China - Chris Taylor, NDN, 12/17/19 - Trump’s trade deal with China offers no details on the structural reforms that were the entire point of the trade war. Instead, all the US receives is the promise of agricultural exports that are barely above the pre-2017 trend and could very easily not take place.

America's Experiment With Protectionism Is Failing - Chris Taylor, NDN, 9/18/19 - America’s great experiment with protectionism hasn’t revived manufacturing or reduced the trade deficit, but instead has destroyed over 300,000 jobs and cost the average household $1,000.

New Study Shows America Embracing Free Trade, Rejecting America First - Chris Taylor, NDN, 7/29/19 - New polling data from Pew shows widespread, and growing, support for free trade among Americans. Democrats, in particular, have become a fundamentally pro-trade party, saying that free trade agreements are good for the US by a 58 point margin.

Democrats Must Demonstrate Greater Leadership In Challenging Trump's Ruinous Trade Policy - Simon Rosenberg, Twitter, 5/8/19 - Democrats should be more aggressive in challenging Trump’s tariffs and trade policies given the failure of those policies to achieve their objectives and growing discontent with them around the country.

Challenging Trump's Tariffs - An Ongoing Series - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/14/19 - In a new series challenging Trump's tariffs, we argue that the President's trade policy is illegal, recklessly ignorant, damaging to the US economy, and historically unpopular. Congress must step up and rescind them this fall.

Trump Economic Record

Much More Economic Support Is Needed To Prevent A Lost Decade- Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/5/20- Over the past few weeks, we've begun to receive data on the state of the economy during the coronavirus crisis, and the numbers are even worse than expected. The first quarter GDP fell by 4.8% on an annualized basis, the second worse quarterly decline since 1982 (only Q4 2008 was worse at -8.4%), and economists now project that Q2 GDP will decline by over 25%, by far the largest quarterly decline since the Second World War. 

How Congress Should Build A Stimulus Package To Counter The Coronavirus Crisis - Chris Taylor, NDN, 3/19/20- Chris Taylor details why Congress should aim for a massive fiscal stimulus right now and should aim to achieve three broad goals with their proposal: shore up the healthcare system and pandemic-response, provide aid to workers and businesses directly harmed by the pandemic, and conduct a massive cash transfer program to boost the overall economy.

Recession Fears Resurface As Coronavirus Batters The Global Economy- Christ Taylor, NDN, 2/24/20-  Chris Taylor explains that there are two key factors that underlie the S&P 500 falling by almost 5% and the yield curve dropping to its weakest since October 13th. The first, of course, is the emergence of the coronavirus epidemic. The second factor is that the US economy was in a weak structural condition even before coronavirus began affecting global markets.

Trump's New Budget Proposal Is Incoherent Yet Immensely Dangerous - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/10/20 - Three years of economic policy under the Trump administration are well represented by just a few words: incoherent yet immensely dangerous. It is fitting then that the budget proposal released by the administration today continues this trend.

Trump's Make-Believe Economic Record - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/5/20 - It is simply not true that Trump has overseen an economic revival since 2016, and actually almost every macro-economic trend has declined to some extent under Trump.

New Data Highlights That Trump's "Greatest Economy Ever" Wasn't Actually So Great In 2018 – Chris Taylor, NDN, 8/21/19 - Updated data on growth, jobs, and investment reveals the extent of Trump’s failed promises on the economy. There is little evidence that Trump’s tax and trade policies boosted investment, and both economic and jobs growth either declined or remained constant from 2017 to 2018.

Beyond The Headlines, The Economy Continues To Weaken - Chris Taylor, Medium, 5/7/19 - The new narrative that the economy is back to growing strongly is significantly flawed, and is largely based upon two economic reports whose headlines were very strong but whose underlying data revealed continued weakness in the economy.  

Weekly Notes On The Economy - Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/7/19 - Weekly Notes On The Economy is a weekly column that NDN writes on the most recent economic news, policy, and data.

Tax Policy

Trump's Tax Cuts Have Failed To Deliver On Their Promises - Chris Taylor, NDN, 10/30/18 - Trump’s tax cut promised to boost growth by strengthening the labor market and investment, but today both metrics look very similar to their pre-tax cut trend. Instead, the deficit has surged to unprecedented levels and rapidly increasing interest rates are hurting ordinary Americans.