Video/Analysis: Democrats and the Hispanic Vote - A New NDN Presentation

NDN is pleased to release a new 25 minute data-filled presentation which reviews the history of the Hispanic vote over the past two decades, and discusses what we are seeing this year. 

You can watch the presentation here.

The presentation's toplines:

  • The net raw vote margin for Democrats with Hispanic voters has increased from 700,000 in 2004 to between 4.5m and 5.4m votes in 2020.  That is growth, not erosion.
  • In the past 20 years Democrats have turned the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US – AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX – far more blue.  2020 was the best year for Democrats in the SW – AZ, CO, NM, NV – in 80 years.  2022 could be better.
  • Even with their gains in 2020 Rs fell further behind in this region (yes, erosion).  If they can’t make further gains here they will further and further behind, and the region will keep slipping away from them. 

Background For the Presentation

12/24/22 - Natasha Korecki cites this analysis in a new NBC News article, Republicans Struggle in the Southwest as Latinos Stick with Democrats

Memo: The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party's Hispanic Strategy

2020 Was The Best Year for Dems in the Southwest in 80 Years.  2022 May Be Even Better.

Learn more about our May polls in AZ, NV, PA showing Dems making gains with Hispanics.

Analysis: The Southwest Has Become A Democratic Stronghold (2020)

In Florida Democrats Lost Ground With All Important Hispanic Voters  (2018)

Among "New Coalition" Voters in 2018, Dems Have Best Performance Ever

Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest (2017)

Trump Is Right To Be Worried About Arizona (And Texas Too) (2017)