Jeb Bush

Quoting Simon on Jeb Bush and Meg Whitman

What will the Republicans have to do in order to win in 2012? Simon has pointed out a few times that with the right presidential ticket, the Republicans could be unexpectedly competitive in the Latino Belt. Demographics are on the Democrats' side, but two leaders who shouldn't be underestimated are Jeb Bush...

http://ndn.org/blog/2010/06/taking-jeb-bush-seriously

...And, if she prevails in her race in California, Meg Whitman.

http://ndn.org/blog/2010/07/taking-meg-whitman-seriously

Bush is part of a Republican dynasty that has long been known for its skill at courting Latino voters; Bush himself is married to a Mexican woman and speaks fluent Spanish. Whitman has come out against Arizona's SB1070 law. The media is picking up on both these points and recently, Simon has been getting mentioned as one thinker who is urging Democrats to take these candidates seriously. Yesterday, Sam Stein's lead piece in the Huffington Post looked at how the Bush brand shouldn't be counted out just yet:

Simon Rosenberg is the most bullish of Democratic strategists. The former Clinton administration official and head of the young non-profit group NDN has been the chief proponent of the belief that Barack Obama's election produced the opportunity for a "30-to-40-year era of Democratic dominance." A specialist in the political habits of different demographic groups (specifically Hispanics), he insists that, absent a drastic makeover, the GOP risks cementing itself "as irrelevant to the 21st century."

Sagging poll numbers and policy setbacks have done little to dissuade these rosy prognostications. There's only one thing that makes Rosenberg nervous: another Bush.

"Jeb [Bush] is married to a Latina, is fluent in Spanish, speaks on Univision as a commentator, his Spanish is that good," Rosenberg said of the former Florida governor and brother to the 43rd president during a lunch at NDN headquarters last week. "And if you look at the electoral map in 2012, you have to assume that Obama is going to have a very hard time in holding North Carolina and Virginia. The industrial Midwest, where the auto decline has been huge, has weakened Obama's numbers... a great deal. So Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin become a bit more wobbly. So if you're Barack Obama, the firewall is the Latin belt from Florida to southwestern California. And there is only one Republican who can break through that firewall. And it is Jeb."

Such a sentiment, Rosenberg admits, carries a slight hint of hysteria. After all, there is a good chunk of the country that recoils at the idea of another pol with the Bush surname. But that chunk has begun narrowing. And even within Democratic circles, there is an emerging belief that in a Republican Party filled with base-pleasing dramatizers or bland conservatives, Jeb stands out.

And Simon's insights were also mentioned today on Fox News:

Taking Jeb Bush Seriously

Matt Bai has a very good piece in today's NYTimes on Jeb Bush.  Despite the obvious problems with a third Bush running for President, the Democrats should be taking a potential Bush candidacy seriously in 2012. 

Thrree quick observations:

1) He is the strongest potential Republican candidate on the scene today, and could win the GOP nomination.

2) He can win Hispanic votes, and change the electoral map.  Unlike his brother, Jeb is fluent in Spanish, and married to a Mexican immigrant.  If the midwest is weaker for Obama in 2012 due to the economy, VA/NC more difficult, Obama's firewall becomes the heavily Latino Southwest and Florida.   Right now Jeb, who has opposed SB1070, is the only GOPer who could likely break through that Latin firewall and flip the electoral college. 

Bush is from Florida, the GOP's convention is there in 2012, and if he puts a newly electred CA governor Meg Whitman on the ticket, could even put CA into play, forcing the Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars just to defend.  His strength in Florida alone changes the electoral calculations for 2012, potentially taking the biggest swing state in the Presidential election off the table.

The Bush family has shown great facility at appealing to Hispanic voters in past elections.  Jeb's potential strength in the emerging Latin electoral belt in the Southern and Western US makes him a very formidible candidate.    

3) He is motivated.  The Bush family needs some new and better chapters in their book of national service.  The last few chapters have not been so good. 

My own gut is that if Obama looks vulnerable early next year Jeb will jump in and go for it.  And if he does 2012 is going to be a serious and highly contested campaign.

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