What will the Republicans have to do in order to win in 2012? Simon has pointed out a few times that with the right presidential ticket, the Republicans could be unexpectedly competitive in the Latino Belt. Demographics are on the Democrats' side, but two leaders who shouldn't be underestimated are Jeb Bush...
Bush is part of a Republican dynasty that has long been known for its skill at courting Latino voters; Bush himself is married to a Mexican woman and speaks fluent Spanish. Whitman has come out against Arizona's SB1070 law. The media is picking up on both these points and recently, Simon has been getting mentioned as one thinker who is urging Democrats to take these candidates seriously. Yesterday, Sam Stein's lead piece in the Huffington Post looked at how the Bush brand shouldn't be counted out just yet:
Simon Rosenberg is the most bullish of Democratic strategists. The former Clinton administration official and head of the young non-profit group NDN has been the chief proponent of the belief that Barack Obama's election produced the opportunity for a "30-to-40-year era of Democratic dominance." A specialist in the political habits of different demographic groups (specifically Hispanics), he insists that, absent a drastic makeover, the GOP risks cementing itself "as irrelevant to the 21st century."
Sagging poll numbers and policy setbacks have done little to dissuade these rosy prognostications. There's only one thing that makes Rosenberg nervous: another Bush.
"Jeb [Bush] is married to a Latina, is fluent in Spanish, speaks on Univision as a commentator, his Spanish is that good," Rosenberg said of the former Florida governor and brother to the 43rd president during a lunch at NDN headquarters last week. "And if you look at the electoral map in 2012, you have to assume that Obama is going to have a very hard time in holding North Carolina and Virginia. The industrial Midwest, where the auto decline has been huge, has weakened Obama's numbers... a great deal. So Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin become a bit more wobbly. So if you're Barack Obama, the firewall is the Latin belt from Florida to southwestern California. And there is only one Republican who can break through that firewall. And it is Jeb."
Such a sentiment, Rosenberg admits, carries a slight hint of hysteria. After all, there is a good chunk of the country that recoils at the idea of another pol with the Bush surname. But that chunk has begun narrowing. And even within Democratic circles, there is an emerging belief that in a Republican Party filled with base-pleasing dramatizers or bland conservatives, Jeb stands out.
And Simon's insights were also mentioned today on Fox News:
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