You don’t have to be a Nobel economist to see that the United States needs a new economic plan if we hope to restore what once seemed part of the American birthright – ample job opportunities, strong and widespread income gains, and broad upward mobility. Last week, we sketched a package of initiatives to equip businesses and workers with the resources and incentives that such a strategy requires. This week, in part 2, we turn to a more general condition for sustained economic progress, a plan to control long-term deficits and national debt.
Bringing down the trillion dollar-plus annual deficits now projected for the next decade is straight-forward conceptually – you cut federal spending, raise taxes, and do both in ways that promote faster growth and so further increase revenues and further reduce spending. Moreover, serious steps to reduce these deficits should be a clear goal for progressives, so long as it’s phased-in a few years from now when the economy is stronger. Once the economy recovers from the neglect and mistakes of the Bush administration and those who ran Wall Street, the current trajectory of massive deficits will push up interest rates and slow investment, incomes and growth. Tolerating these long-term deficits, then, would consign average Americans to another lost decade economically – and perhaps even worse, lay the toxic foundations for another crisis.
In practice, serious deficit reduction is always a difficult business, since who wants to pay higher taxes or accept fewer benefits? The challenge is to rethink and reconfigure federal spending and taxes, so we can channel spending and raise revenues in ways which reinforce job creation and income gains, and so help families and businesses prosper. This week, we focus on the spending reforms; next week, we will rethink taxes.
Progressives should approach this challenge in three ways. First, end not only earmarks but their larger and more permanent version, the major subsidy programs for influential industries. These subsidies arbitrarily tilt the economy towards companies with political clout and so reduce the jobs and wealth the economy is capable of producing. These industry entitlements range, for example, from much of the farm program which ends up raising food prices, and export promotion efforts that give selected exporters artificial advantages without affecting the overall trade deficit, to the below-market fees for mineral rights and other natural resources. Make a clean sweep of these ongoing taxpayer bailouts, and we could save between $100 billion and $150 billion per-year.
The second area involves the inescapable reforms of individual entitlements. Unlike industry entitlements, these programs serve clear and compelling social interests. As the boomers begin to retire, however, these programs in their current forms will become plainly unsustainable. Social Security reforms are the more manageable part, analytically and politically. The program’s long-term deficit would melt away, for example, if Congress enacted three fairly modest adjustments: Shift the pension’s annual cost-of-living adjustment to reflect the actual inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the elderly people who receive it; link increases in the retirement age to increases in life expectancy for those age 65 and over; and tax all of the benefits of retirees with incomes above the national average. And all of these changes reflect the progressive values of fairness.
Fixing Medicare and Medicaid is much tougher. As this year’s wrenching debate over health care reform demonstrated, nothing inspires greater public anxiety than changes in the arrangements which people consider matters of life and death. Yet, the current arrangements are also plainly unsustainable, especially as boomers enter the phase of their lives when heart diseases and cancers, the most common and expensive conditions to treat, become much more common. The general path is clear: We need reforms that go considerably beyond this year’s changes to substantially slow the rates of increase for all health care costs.
By taking this broad approach, we can not only preserve Medicare but also produce large economic dividends. First, smaller annual increases in health care costs will reduce pressures on businesses to hold down wages. That’s just what happened in the 1990s, when the shift to HMOs produced several years of much slower health care inflation, and average incomes grew more than 2 percent annually, after inflation. Moreover, slower health care costs also will help the overall economy. Since other advanced countries produce health care outcomes comparable to our own at less cost, our additional spending is flagrantly inefficient, stealing wealth and jobs from more economically-productive areas.
Happily, this year’s health care debate aired a catalog of strategies to help contain these costs without compromising the quality of care; and the bill, as enacted, provides a credible beginning for a more extended process to control future increases. The insurance exchanges should reduce costs in the individual and small-group insurance market, and the investments in IT should help slow costs across the system. Both can be expanded and beefed up. The new law also begins to move the Medicare program from volume-based payments to reimbursements based on the value of the treatments. That can be substantially strengthened as well. This year’s reforms also create a new advisory board to propose new ways to cut Medicare costs, with a process to fast-track the recommendations through Congress. Eventually we can apply this kind of arrangement to all of health care.
Finally, both parties will have to accept the most difficult changes advanced by the other. Democrats will have to live with taxing a share of the value of employer-provided coverage, along with serious malpractice reforms. And Republicans will have to accept a public option, in order to introduce real competition for insurers in areas where one or two of them comprise an effective monopoly or duopoly.
Looking out several years, these reforms for industry and individual entitlements should be able to pare several hundred billion dollars per-year from our structural national deficits. And if that’s not enough, there’s still a third area of large, potential savings in defense spending. For a start, eliminate any weapon system that the Pentagon says it doesn’t need or want. These programs have become geographic entitlements, sustained to keep taxpayers dollars flowing to the districts of those who sit on the defense appropriations subcommittees. That’s hardly a sufficient reason to weaken a broad plan with the promise of restoring economic opportunities and prosperity for average Americans.
Read Part 1 of a New, Progressive Economic Strategy here.