21st Century America Project

As census news and analysis begins to roll in, we at NDN could not be more excited. For years the team at NDN/NPI has been a leader in helping policymakers better understand the changing demographics of the United States. In the coming year, we are excited to continue our role as interpreter of what these changes mean.

Below you can find some of our 21st Century America efforts, including spot-on demographic analysis by Mike Hais, Morley Winograd and other members of the NDN team and clairvoyant political analysis from Simon on how these demographic shifts are changing modern politics.  I hope you'll take a minute to read these pieces and compare where our analysis was to where we find ourselves today. 

A Continued Look at the Changing Coalitions of 21st Century America, Poll and Presentation, by Mike Hais and Morley Winograd

Hispanics Rising 2010

The American Electorate of the 21st Century, Poll and Presentation, by Mike Hais and Morley Winograd

End of the Southern Strategy, by Simon Rosenberg

The 50 Year Strategy, by Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden in Mother Jones

In May of 2010 President Barack Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon drafted a Declaration by The Government Of The United States Of America and The Government Of The United Mexican States The  Concerning Twenty-First Century Border Management.

This landmark declaration pledged both countries would work together to create a more harmonious border region which focused on enhancing security and a renewed emphasis on improving the economic benefits that our countries share.

Please make sure to join us on April 11th for Forward Together/Avanzando Juntos/Avançando Juntos - A Conference Looking at the Changing Politics of the Americas where we will be discussing the new level of co-operation and ways in which the United States and Mexico have worked together to make the border region safer and more economically efficient.

From the Declaration, The United States and Mexico: Hereby express their commitment to strengthen cooperation in:

• Enhancing economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade, while preventing the transit of illegal merchandise between their two countries,
• Facilitating lawful travel in a manner that also prevents the illegal movement of people between their two countries,
• Sharing information that enhances secure flows of goods and people, and
• Disrupting and dismantling transnational criminal organizations and punishing their members and supporters.

Over the past year and a half NDN has been fortunate to see just how much cooperation has occurred between the United States and Mexico along the southern border.

In particular it has been truly exciting to see a coalition of Border Mayors from both Mexico and the United States come together to focus on security, infrastructure and the positive economic benefits to our countries.

Mayors video testimonies from the U.S. Mexico Border Mayors Conference Roundtable which highlighted the advances in safety along the border make a compelling case for the positive side of cooperation between Mexico and The United States.

In this video Mayor John Cook of El Paso, TX talks about the important positive impact of Mexican retailers on the economy of his city.

The Border Mayors also released a letter touting the important work done in making the region safer, in the letter they note:

The results of the Southwest Border Initiative speak for themselves:

• Border cities are some of the safest in the nation. Border Patrol apprehensions,
• A key indicator of illegal immigration, have decreased 36 percent in the past two years.
• At the same time, we have seen increased seizures of southbound illegal bulk cash and weapons as well as northbound drugs. 
• Since beginning the Southwest Border Initiative in 2009, Immigration and Customs Enforcement removed almost 800,000 illegal immigrants from our country and almost 200,000 of them were convicted criminals.

Please be sure to join us for our event on April 11th, where we will delve deeply into the issues raised above while also focusing in on the changing politics of Latin America and the evolving relationship between the United States and Mexico. Make sure to RSVP HERE.

Please join us for an important webinar featuring remarks by Secretary of Homeland Security Janet  Napolitano, followed by a roundtable discussion, on Friday, April 1st at 9:30 AM ET.

Secretary Napolitano will discuss the Obama Administration’s vision for a "21st Century Border" with Mexico, the progress being made nationwide in effectively enforcing U.S. immigration law, and the steps taken to ensure the strength and integrity of the entire immigration system.

Roundtable discussion participants include:

John Morton, Director, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Alejandro Mayorkas, Director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
David V. Aguilar, Deputy Commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Alan Krieger, Mayor, Yuma, AZ
Al Zapanta, President, U.S. Mexico Chamber of Commerce  

The speech will begin at 9:30am.  Due to space limitations, at this time only a live web-cast of the event will be open to the public.

President Barack Obama, in a recent interview with KOAT TV News Albuquerque  noted that the resources that his administration has sent to the border are significant:

Video and a read out from the interview can be seen here, President Obama talked about the resources sent to the border:

“We have significantly have increased border security, border patrols. The resources we are putting in at the federal level are higher than we've ever had. Obviously we are still concerned considering what's happening on the other side of the border,” Obama said.

While, the President noted that the Mexican Drug cartel's have become increasingly more sophisticated, he also noted that the Border Patrol has become much more aggressive in their tactics to suppress cartel operations"

Obama said drug cartels are evolving their operations and that places a larger burden on border patrols. “We are getting much more serious about cracking down on, gun running, drug running, cash that's flowing down that's helping to finance these cartels,” Obama said.

Finally, he noted that the only way in which this situation would get better is if the United States and Mexico continued to work together:

The president said the only way to stop the drug cartels is by increasing cooperation with the Mexican government on both sides of the border. It’s something he said he’s talking about right now with Mexico President Felipe Calderon.

Inspired by “Ya es hora” campaign, Asian-Americans in California begin a major citizenship push. 

Joseph Berger at The New York Times has a great article about ethnic job niches.  In his piece, Berger suggests that as Koreans and Italians move out, Latinos are moving up:

The Koreans who streamed to the United States in the 1970s were often middle-class professionals who might have needed years to learn English and obtain their American credentials in engineering or chemistry. But a small nest egg might buy a store in a ragged neighborhood, and there were plenty of fruit markets and delis being forsaken by aging Italians and Jews. These older immigrants sold out to Koreans partly because the children they had sent to college did not want to inherit a business where they would have to lift fruit cartons. “The niche is not disappearing, but the previous occupants are,” Professor Kasinitz said.

A perfect illustration is what’s happening now: Since fewer South Koreans are leaving their now-prosperous homeland, and college-educated Korean offspring here want less grueling work, Latinos who once worked for the Koreans are taking over their stores. Similarly, Italian landscapers in the suburbs are slowly giving way to companies started by the Latino laborers the Italians once hired to cut grass.

So here’s my question:  once Latinos take over Korean delis, do we start calling them bodegas?  And in gentrifying neighborhoods, who is going to run those bodegas when the Latinos move out?  The hipsters?

And, Latino Decisions has a new tracking poll out showing that while Latino support for the Affordable Care Act remains high, it has decreased over time.  From today’s release:

Latino support for maintaining the law remains higher than the general public, as 49% of the sample report that the Affordable Care Act “should be left as law” compared to 31% who believe that the “bill should be repealed”.  Thus, compared to the general public at large, Latinos demonstrate a much lower preference for repeal (31% compared to 46% in Gallup).  However Latino support for Obama’s health care plan has dipped over time.

Matt Barreto, LD’s lead pollster suggests that perhaps the dip can be attributed to a lack of White House outreach.  What do you think? Was this a missed opportunity?

Finally some relatively good news coming out of Arizona, last night the State Senate struck down 5 pieces of anti immigration legislation.

The Arizona Republic's  Alia Beard Rau has the full story here:

Arizona won't be leading a national push for the U.S. Supreme Court to strip citizenship status from children of illegal immigrants - at least not this year.  The state Senate voted down a package of birthright-citizenship bills, with Republicans split over the measures and Democrats opposed.

The other types of legislation struck down would have done the following:

1. Banned illegal immigrants from state universities.

2. Made it a crime for illegal immigrants to drive a vehicle in Arizona.

3. Required school districts to check the legal status of students.

4. Required hospitals to check the legal status of patients.

Perhaps most importantly, over and over legislators from both parties voiced their concerns that passing anti-immigrant legislation would be damaging for the economy and small businesses that operated in Arizona:

Sen. Steve Yarbrough, R-Chandler, said the state should be focused on its budget and not on a divisive issue that puts Arizona in a bad light. He said he didn't believe the bills would accomplish their larger goal.

Sen. Steve Gallardo, D-Phoenix, said the bills would be bad for business. "As we continue to try and improve Arizona's economy, to try and bring in new businesses to the state of Arizona, these types of legislation are not helping us move the economy forward," Gallardo said.

Consideration for the economic impact of passing more anti-immigrant legislation weighed heavily on the emotionally charged debate. It is unclear whether or not these anti immigrant pieces of legislation will be added as amendments to other legislation that is moving forward.

In Arizona sixty CEOs have signed a letter sent to State Senate President Russell Pearce urging him to stop trying to legislate on immigration from the State Legislature.

For the full scoop on the letter, The Associated Press has good summary here:

A letter signed by CEOs of major employers and several business and civic groups says Arizona should be pushing for federal action on immigration and border issues. The letter says "unintended consequences" occur when the state "goes it alone" on illegal immigration, including boycotts and other fallout on businesses.

The full letter can be found here, part of the letter below:

We agree with you that our borders must be protected first, and now. We also believe that market-driven immigration policies can and should be developed by the federal government that will sustain America’s status as a magnet for the world’s most talented and hard-working people and preserve our ability to compete in the global economy. If the Legislature believes it is worthwhile to debate the question of citizenship, we believe that debate is best held in the U.S. Congress.

This letter articulates an important argument which both advocates and businesses alike have been making for some time: if local governments are upset about the current state of immigration in the country then they should take up their grievances with their Congressional delegation. Furthermore, it should be the federal government who makes these changes because there has been an established federal domain on immigration issues. Most importantly as the letter notes there are some very real "unintended consequences" of state passed immigration laws, like loss of revenue in the retail market and a hurt tourism industry.

The letter is signed by an impressive array of businesses including. W. Douglas Parker, chairman, president, CEO, US Airways Group,  Stephen Rizley. senior VP, GM, Cox Communications, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona, John Zidich, CEO, publisher, Arizona Republic, Gerrit Van Huisstede, Regional president, Wells Fargo Bank.

Of the other people who signed, they represent mostly small businesses leaders in the state. Which would seem odd, as the Governor has repeatedly  the small businesses sector is the key to jump starting Arizona's hurting economy. Lets see if the state legislature listens.

Yesterday Kansas State Rep. Virgil Peck set off a firestorm by saying that he thought:

"It might be a good idea to control illegal immigration the way the feral hog population has been controlled, with hunters shooting from helicopters."

While he has since apologized his comments have created a firestorm of criticism, Dana Milbank of the Washington Post wrote an especially scathing editorial entitled Gunning down immigrants — and other democratic experiments. Well worth reading, as it does a great job of highlighting just how extreme much of the rhetoric surrounding immigration has become.

Democratic law makers have been equally outspoken in condemning Rep. Peck's statement. Catalin Carnia of USA Today has the full story here. Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus said the following:

"Advocating the killing or slaughter of any individual or group is no laughing matter, and I'm sure the good people of southeast Kansas would agree," Becerra said. "We know all too well where that kind of unacceptable talk can lead."

His full statement can be read here.

Rep. Charles Gonzalez, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said the following about Rep. Pecks comments:

"were dehumanizing and inappropriate" and "could incite prejudices and biases that are harmful to our nation."

Strangely silent on the issue, any member of the Republican Congressional Delegation.

Maryland has passed a state version of the DREAM Act, joining states like California in moving forward on giving children of immigrants brought to the country when they were young an opportunity to gain in state tuition for college.

The Washington Post has two great stories up giving all the details of this new development, Todd Eberly details what the bill does HERE:

The Maryland Senate has approved, by a 27-20 vote, legislation that would grant in-state tuition to undocumented students at public universities and community colleges. The bill would place significant restrictions on undocumented students before qualifying for in-state tuition.

The restrictions are as follows, applicants must:

1. Graduate from a Maryland high school and then attend a community college within the high school’s jurisdiction.
2. Prove that taxes were paid by the student, parent or legal guardian for three years before entering college.
3. Complete an associate’s degree, or 60 credits, from a community college before they can qualify for in-state tuition at a four-year Maryland university.
4. Show proof of paid state income taxes while attending community college.
5. Sign an affidavit stating they will apply for legal residency when they are eligible.

Ann E. Marimow gives an account of how the legislation moved forward:

After a lengthy and emotional debate, the Senate voted 27 to 20 to approve the measure, shifting one of the legislative session’s most high-profile and controversial immigration bills to the House of Delegates. Sen. Victor R. Ramirez (D-Prince George’s), the lead sponsor, spoke to dozens of students seated in the gallery who would benefit from the measure, and told his story of arriving legally in the United States from El Salvador at age 5.

State Senator Victor R. Ramirez spoke of the importance of focusing on the important educational message this legislation sends to students as opposed to the immigration aspects of the bill:

“This is about education; it’s not about immigration,” he said. “What do we do with the talent and the intellect of the children of undocumented immigrants who are already living here? These children didn’t make the decision to come to Maryland. Their parents did.”

Let's hope other states follow this lead and work to pass similar legislation in their respective states.

In Texas where Governor Rick Perry has repeatedly asserted that the southern border between the United States and Mexico is a war zone, going so far as to compare the region to Iraq, the debate over border security is heating up.

Texas State Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples has put up a web site paid for by the state of Texas entitled Protect Your Texas Border, which has led some to complain that some of the comments made on the website are unnecessarily inflammatory..

Julian Aguilar of the Texas Tribune has the full story HERE:

Launched last week, protectyourtexasborder.com  has drawn the ire of some who oppose comments made on the site’s message board, comments calling for armed vigilante groups, land mines and booby traps on farm and ranch lands near or on the border.

The website has garnered some infamy as it has fast become a place for its users to post derogatory and violent comments about the border, which led Commissioner Staples  to call for civility on the web site.  Yet some in Congress are wondering why this site even needs to exist to begin with:

U.S. Rep Silvestre Reyes, D-El Paso, said the site was nothing more than propaganda that portrayed rural Texas like “rural Afghanistan,” and cited statistics indicating border communities in Texas are safer than most others, including Austin.

U.S. Rep Henry Cueller D - Laredo also weighed in:

U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, defended Washington’s actions and said his party last year injected more funds toward border security than at any other time in history. But the new GOP-controlled U.S. House has gutted those funds by at least $350 million, he said.

As the debate continues in Texas and other states over the safety of border region it should be noted that the situation along the southern border is far less volatile then the rhetoric currently being utilized by some. In fact a recent report by NDN shows that the resources allocated by the border have shown real results in lowering the level of violence along the border.