NDN Blog

Backgrounder: Trump, Immigration, And The Border

Research and policy recommendations about our border and immigration system have been one of NDN’s most influential areas of work over the past 13 years.  We send along some of our most recent releases below, hoping they will inform your own work and thinking in the days ahead.  What is happening on the border today is not an emergency; and the crisis, if there is one, comes from the failure of Trump’s extreme immigration approach which has created an extraordinary mess on both sides of the US border with Mexico.   Responsible policy makers from both parties should use this moment to advance smart solutions to the real challenges our immigration system faces, many of them made far worse by Trump’s misguided policies.  In that vein we offer a three part plan for what the nation can be doing now to improve our border and immigration enforcement system, shore up our neighbors to the South, improve our economy, and remove this toxic debate from our politics so we the nation can move on to other more important matters. 

Finally, it is our belief that the shutdown is not about the wall, but about our democracy.  It is whether our nation has a President, or a Mad King.  The stakes here are far higher than they may appear, which is why the Democrats and an increasing number of Republicans are right to stand and fight the worrisome and increasingly authoritarian behavior of Mr. Trump.  

The Ridiculous Shutdown, A President In Decline - Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 1/7/19 - The shutdown isn't about a wall.  It is about our democracy and whether Trump is a President, or a dangerous mad king. 

Some Thoughts About The Caravan - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 10/24/18 - The Caravan, composed of 3,000 poor, unarmed, mostly Honduran migrants, poses no threat to the US, and illegal border crossings continue to be way down. Some thoughts on what Democrats should do to respond to Trump's farcical attacks and inane policies.

Trump's Brand Is His Xenophobic Immigration Policy. That's Why He'll Go To Any Lengths To Enact It - Simon Rosenberg, NBC News, 8/6/18 - Trump's separation of kids at the border is the result of a political crisis for his administration, rather than any real immigration crisis on the ground. As Trump's immigration policies continue to fail in the face of legal roadblocks and public outrage, expect even more outrageous policies from the administration.

Rebutting Trump’s Ridiculous Attack On “Chuck and Nancy” And All Democrats - Simon Rosenberg, Medium, 11/28/17 - The Democratic Party that Trump describes - on immigration, taxes, and more - is one that exists only in his mind. The Party that he is facing everyday is one that has governed responsibly when in power, and left the country far better than they found it.

The Case For Optimism: Rejecting Trump's Poisonous Pessimism - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 11/19/18 - Simon argues that the great rationale of Trump's Presidency  –  that America is in decline – simply isn't true, and must be challenged more forcefully. This is the piece that spurred the creation of NDN’s “Patriotism and Optimism” deck.

The Ridiculous Shutdown, A President In Decline

This essay originially appeared on Medium.

The United States government and legislature have become paralyzed because the President is demanding Congress fund something he explicitly promised the American people we would never have to pay for.  The President’s immigration ideas were rejected repeatedly by a GOP Congress these past two years.  Not content with that, seeking in essence a legislative do-over, the President shuts the government down right before Christmas after agreeing not to.  Both the Senate and House have passed bills which would re-open the government but fund DHS only through February so cooler heads could prevail and a deal on border policy could get worked out.  Even this reasonable path, supported by both parties and both chambers, has been rejected by the President.  Instead, he keeps the government shut down, causing real harm to the country

And now the President’s ransom note is becoming clearer.  $5.7b for more wall, $800m for detention facilities, controversial and potentially illegal changes in immigration law.  He is asking for all this to be passed by Congress before reopening the government without going through regular order – no hearings, no studies, no debates, no votes.  The letter and presentation the President sent to Congress justifying his demands was sophomoric, unpersuasive and reinforced how crazy his demands are.  He has still NEVER EXPLAINED why more wall is needed – where would it go? Has flow increased in those areas? Has the border been penetrated in ways it wasn’t before? We don’t have answers to these simple questions.  The legislative changes he is asking for are complicated, may violate both domestic and international law, and may be, in his hands, dangerous. Mad King George has returned to America after an absence of hundreds of years.

And please, the argument he is standing on principle and fighting to fill a campaign promise is absurd.  His promise to all of us was clear - we would get a wall without paying for it, not by spending billions and billions of dollars.  He is betraying his core promise, not keeping faith with it.  And what makes his petulant demands even more galling is that he has used a worsening deficit as a reason to freeze the pay for federal workers next year.  No modest increase in wages for workers, but billions for an unjustified wall. 

What the President is asking for was rejected by a GOP Senate and was something he explicitly promised would never happen; his demands are controversial and unpopular, and has no back up explaining why what he is proposing will address what has become a crisis on the border through his current, deeply misguided immigration policies; he wants Congress to appropriate huge sums of money and make major legislative changes without going through the process we’ve used for hundreds of years to make decisions like this.  What the President is asking for and doing is unreasonable and potentially precedent setting.  If he succeeds at using these un-democratic/authoritarian methods to get his way what will stop him from doing it again and again? Democrats are right to play the issue the way they have – it would be reckless for them to give into the President at this point given how crazy he is acting. 

The President is not winning the argument with the public.  He made these issues central to his election argument and suffered one of the worst defeats of the modern era of American politics.  He has dropped 3 points in the polls since early December, from -9 to -12.   The economy is worsening, the market is way off and volatile, his tariffs are doing real material harm to the global and US economies, the President’s legal challenges are mounting and getting far more serious, and his foreign policy performance of late has been, frankly, scary.   At this point, given all the real challenges in front of the President, the shutdown has become a reckless indulgence by a very vain and self-centered man, a diva sitting in their dressing room angry over not getting their way.  His party needs to urge him to re-open the government and then bring his ideas about the border and immigration to Congress for a debate – like every other President has done throughout our history.  His repeated insistence on creating mechanisms to go around Congress is undemocratic and must be opposed; this wild man must play by the rules and work within the system which has created the most powerful nation in the history of the world.  This is not too much to ask and is, literally, what the Democrats are asking him to do right now.  

Now that we have begun this debate about immigration, no matter how the standoff plays out, Democrats should be aggressively putting forth their vision for how they want to improve our border and immigration system.  In a recent op-ed I offered a 3 part plan: 1) Convene a regional process to address the worsening conditions in Central America, 2) put comprehensive immigration reform back on the table, 3) offer ideas on how to best improve an immigration enforcement system weakened by the President’s failed policies.  We cannot defend the immigration status quo – the President took a creaky immigration system and has broken it.  We should step up and offer plans on how to best fix it now. 

How this ends isn’t clear but what is clear is that this standoff is not about a wall.  It is about ensuring we have a functioning democracy, and a President who plays by the rules established by our Founding Fathers a long time ago, rules which have indeed made this country great long before the Trumptrain arrived in Washington. 

Simon's Work With The DCCC On Disinformation, Cybersecurity

We are pleased to send along a new NBC News op-ed by Simon Rosenberg and the DCCC’s Aaron Trujillo which recaps the disinformation and cybersecurity work they did this past cycle for the DCCC.  The op-ed is here, and below.  They conclude by expressing confidence that in the coming years we as a society can make great progress against these new and complicated threats to our discourse and democracy. 

While this project Simon ran was outside of NDN’s own work, we felt our audience would find it of interest.  You can learn more about this exciting project through recent stories in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, and Reuters, and review NDN’s cutting edge paper on bots and disinformation published last fall.  

Trump Doesn't Take Russian Electoral Interference Seriously. This Is What Democrats Did To Oppose It In 2018

By Simon Rosenberg and Aaron Trujillo

In the last few years bots, trolls and hackers have become a new and unfortunate part of our politics here in the U.S., as new reports prepared for the Senate intelligence committee showed this week.

Those reports looked at the 2016 election, and found that Russia’s Internet Research Agency made extensive use of social media, including Facebook, YouTube and Instagram, to push right-wing conspiracy theories and engender distrust in the electorate among the left, ultimately recruiting people to take concrete political actions in real life.

While these reports address the broader social media campaigns of the Russians, it is important to remember that the Russians also directly hacked both the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (which oversees House campaigns) in 2016. Materials stolen from both committees were then used by Republicans in their campaigns against Democratic candidates.

Determined to never let these kinds of influence campaigns succeed again, DCCC Chairman Rep. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., established a program designed to fight the malicious activity — which is poisoning our discourse and weakening our democracy — during the 2018 election cycle.

The two of us led that team over the past two years, and now that the midterms are over, we offer some observations from the front lines of this new political battlefield.

We regularly found accounts on the major social media platforms that were in violation of the rules set by Twitter, Facebook and YouTube; nothing we found was on the scale of the Russian’s extensive efforts in 2016, but the activity wasn’t insignificant either. So, as part of the DCCC’s efforts, we deployed unprecedented defensive tools to help us identify malicious activity on social media, using a customized bot-detection tool to diagnose robotic, inauthentic activity and a commercial off-the-shelf social listening platform that allowed us to better see what was happening in near real-time on the major social media platforms.

When we found malicious activity, our internal team went through a rigorous review process to make sure it was in violation of the social media platform’s terms of service, rather than just something we didn’t like. Offensive accounts and activity were then reported to the platforms both through their public systems and through teams specifically assigned to the U.S. elections. While not everything reported was addressed, a great deal of it was.

We also found, as is common among cybersecurity researchers, that the easiest way to secure against cyber intrusions is to arm every user to recognize the tactics common among hackers. And, as in 2016 (and at every organization in the world), we did see phishing and spear-phishing efforts directed at the party and at individual candidates, from various sources we did not or could not identify.

We don’t believe the DCCC had a large breach like we did in 2016, but can’t be certain. But, when campaigns encountered problems, we worked quickly to mitigate the damage and reported these intrusions to the FBI. And, working with outside partners, we were successful in helping staff internally and at campaigns embrace new behaviors and tools that were effective, affordable and simple — like two factor authentication, encrypted messaging and better data protections. Much of the DCCC’s strategy work was inspired by the highly regarded cybersecurity framework developed by the U.S. government’s National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) — a set of smart protocols which should become far more familiar to those of us in politics.

This big new emphasis on digital is being driven by how Americans’ own media usage is changing; it will be any day now that more Americans get their news from digital sources than television, something which is already true for those under 50 in the U.S. Which is why, as the intelligence committee reports show, the Russians in 2016 leaned so heavily on targeted ads to access voters on various social platforms, where news and ads (or sponsored posts) can feel (and often are) indistinguishable. Learning how to win in this new digital-first landscape will be increasingly important for those in politics here and around the world.

The first step in winning in this new information landscape is be far louder on the internet and on social media. The DCCC had the most ambitious digital advertising and organic communications effort in its history, and encouraged its candidates to not cede this space to either the Republicans or malicious actors. In politics the best defense remains a very good offense.

The DCCC also made an unprecedented public pledge to combat these new malicious tactics by committing to never use hacked materials in the election, as was done against us in 2016. We think future pledges like this one should include promises not to hack, use hacked materials or use fake accounts, bots, troll farms or “deep fakes.” Whether the parties themselves can agree to a common approach remains to be seen — it didn’t work this time — but the DNC and sister committees should lead by example and get every Democratic presidential campaign to sign on to some set of practices similar to the pledge released by the DCCC in 2018.

Everyone in US politics, regardless of party, should follow our lead and commit to not use the tools the Russians used — and continue to use — against us and other democracies in our own work. But we also need to commit ourselves to higher cybersecurity standards in general, and to being more cognizant users of email and the internet.

Based on our time working with cybersecurity at the DCCC, we strongly recommend that Congress also dramatically upgrade the way it handles the cybersecurity of senators, House members and their staff by mandating cybersecurity and counterintelligence training.

Toolsets for identifying inauthentic social media — like what we had at the DCCC — should become commonly used throughout American politics, from campaigns to advocacy organizations to official Senate and House offices. Users of these tools should be disciplined about their submissions to the platforms so as not to overwhelm systems which are not yet fully mature, and they should rely, as we did, on the many incredibly able researchers and think tanks who are making their findings public. We learned a great deal from them throughout this process.

While the social media platforms did make things far harder for malicious actors over the past year, far more must be done — and Congress should pass some of the many smart, already introduced bipartisan bills which address these matters without delay.

It is also our belief that the best way for the government to help support to our nation’s elected officials in their official, political and private roles is for the Department of Homeland Security to partner with the major federal party committees to share information, best practices and emerging threats through a similar arrangement to the ones it has with the financial services and energy industries, among others, though it may require legislation.

But the most important lesson we learned in the last two years is that the U.S. and its politics are not powerless to stop the kind of foreign hacking and disinformation tactics we saw in 2016. Far more can be done to protect our democracy and our discourse — and doing so should be a very high priority for the new Congress in 2019.

The Case for Optimism: Rejecting Trump’s Poisonous Pessimism

This piece was originally published on Medium on June 2nd, 2017. 

So, imagine if you lived in America at a time when:

· Incomes of everyday people are at an all-time high, have been rising for at least four years now and saw their largest annual increase in recorded US history just a year ago.

· The unemployment rate is 4.3%, about at what economists consider “full employment.” This rate is historically low — over the past 70 years (821 months), the rate has only been lower in 130 of those months or just 16% of this 70 year stretch. A reminder that the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3% during the entire Reagan Presidency.

· More people have health insurance and access to quality than any time in American history. A recently implemented health care law has materially improved the lives of tens of millions Americans in a very short period of time.

· The US stock market is at an all-time high, and 33% percent higher than any sustained high in US history and between 5 and 10 times higher than where it has been most of last 50 years. So really high.

· The high school graduation rate is the highest ever recorded.

· Violent crime rates are half of what they were a generation ago, and cities across the US are blossoming, seeing growth, investment and people once again living “downtown.”

· Teenage pregnancy rates are plummeting, and now are at all-time low.

· There has not been a foreign fighter terror attack on US soil in 16 years, few American troops are dying overseas and the US faces no true existential threat from a foreign power.

· Due to smart policies and years of investment, the flow of undocumented immigrants into the US has dramatically slowed, seeing no net increase for a decade now.

· The US is taking control of its energy future, seeing a sharp decrease in foreign oil imports and sharp, even historic, increases in the production of renewable energy.

Would that America sound like a good America to you? I think so. And of course this list describes the America of today, early June, 2017. America is not without its problems, of course. Despite our economic success, we are still leaving too many behind. Growing levels of inequality are corrosive to the social fabric and bad for the economy too. We have too much public and private debt. Tribalism, racial strife and social coherence remain daunting challenges. Mass incarceration too. The opioid epidemic is tragic, and needs far more attention and action. Too few people vote in America, and our civic life needs renewal on many fronts…..

For a 70 year old alive today, the unemployment rate has been higher than 4.3% for 59 of her 70 years. Line is current level of unemployment.

But it is the premise of this essay that while America has very real challenges, somehow the positive side of the nation’s balance sheet — and there is a lot there — has been recklessly ignored in our national discourse. It is my contention that contrary to the claims of our President, America hasn’t lost its greatness, and that by many historical measures there has never been a better time in all of America history to be alive. Certainly better than the Great Depression, or when we held millions of slaves in cruel bondage, or when kids worked and didn’t go to school, or before there was a minimum wage or a social safety net, or when little black kids and little white kids couldn’t drink from the same water fountain, or when hundreds of thousands were dying in Vietnam, or a Cold War could lead to nuclear annihilation at any moment? Or when sky high interest rates prevented us from buying homes, or women couldn’t vote or work or pursue their dreams, or when OPEC decided to punish America, forcing us to wait in lines for hours just to buy gas? Or especially, my Republican friends, when Ronald Reagan was President and the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3?

Incomes recovering after years of stagnation, decline. Note difference of GOP (red) and Democratic (blue) Presidencies.

Which brings us to Trump. So much of what he is doing flows from the argument that America isn’t managing this new age of globalization well but being defeated by it. It is the rationale behind stripping health care from tens of millions, dismantling common sense environmental regulations, and getting out of the Paris climate deal and TPP; behind his harsh new immigration enforcement and criminal justice policies; behind his dancing with dictators and distancing himself from democracies. And of course, the data above suggests that this argument — the entire rationale for Trump’s Presidency — just isn’t true. Not even close. Things are far better than he says, or perhaps, understands.

Dow Jones Average 1900–2017. Today, far far above historic norms.

Our new President is the first in our history to be under investigation for treason while in office. Whether he has in fact betrayed our nation to a hostile foreign power (and I think he did) will be determined soon. But to me the greater betrayal of this remarkable nation and its hundreds of millions of decent, hardworking people is the President’s denigration of our collective accomplishments over the past generation. Despite the many headwinds of the modern world America has made true, substantial progress. We are a better and more prosperous nation than we were a generation ago. Our companies lead the world in just about every possible sector, and the innovation and creativity in our private sector remains the envy of the world. Our military has no near peer, and remains the greatest fighting force ever assembled. We are taking control of our energy future, and making great strides against climate change. We are working through our unique challenges with race and tribalism, and while Trump is an obvious setback we just saw a man of color lead our nation successfully for the first time in history. Millions of new Americans are starting businesses, building families and making their mark. Our universities are the best in the world, and our public schools are getting better. I could go on and on and on.

But the bottom line is by selling us short Trump betrays both the greatness of our country and the goodness of the American people every day of his Presidency.

And this is the key. To defeat Trumpism we must be optimists, patriots, pragmatists now. To defeat the man, we must defeat his fallacious arguments about America and what we have become. While he talks down America, we must talk it up. We should be proud stewards of a great nation, but steely-eyed and resolute about tackling the real challenges that remain. In many ways, even in these nasty early days of Trump, I have never been more proud of my country, more in touch with what it means to be an American. For it remains the greatest country on Earth, the inspiration for so many — and it will reclaim that role in the days after Trump if we can together not just defeat the man, but defeat the dark pessimism his brand of politics has unleashed into America and the rest of the world.

Can we do it? In the words of another who came before, there is no doubt in my mind that “Yes, we can.”

Who Won The Hill Election Prediction Contest?

Friends, a few of you have asked who won The Hill election prediction contest.  In reviewing the various submissions, with the late movement towards the Dems in Arizona and other places, it appears I won, or Maria Cardona did, or both of us. 

Of the three who could win Armstrong Williams had it Senate GOP plus 5, and Dems winning 30 in the House.  Maria and I had Rs keeping the Senate/Dems plus 1, and I had the House at 40 and she had it at 35-40. 

Where we stand today is Rs plus nothing (they are still at 51), which is far closer to where Maria and I have it than Armstrong (he is off 5, we are off 1).  If Rs win both FL and MS in the coming weeks and get it up to plus 2 then Armstrong, Maria and I will be off by 3 seats each, tying.  But Maria and I are closer in the House as it looks like Dems will come in 38-40. 

Still waiting for the Hill to make their call but sure does look like it will be some combo of me and Maria, and Maria as many of you know is a former NDNer.  Will update when we know more.  

In All Important Florida, Democrats Lose Ground With Hispanic Voters

In an election where Democrats had one of their best years ever with Hispanic voters across the country, Florida Democrats saw their Hispanic numbers decline.  Nationally, Democrats went from 62-36 (26 pts) in 2014 to 69-29 (40 pts) this election. In Florida, Democrats went from 58-38 (20 pts) in 2014 to 54-44 (10 pts) this year.  If both Gillum and Nelson end up losing, this significant underperformance with Hispanic voters will have played a major role. 

The growth of the Hispanic share of the electorate from 2014 to 2018 from 13% to 15% can be attributed entirely to registration growth, not better turnout operations.  And we know from registration data that very few of these new potential voters registered as Republicans.  So this growth we saw should have made the Hispanic electorate more Democratic, not less. 

Finally, think about what Trump has done in the last 2 years.  He has relentlessly attacked immigrants and Hispanics in particular.  He grossly mismanaged the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, sending hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans fleeing to central Florida.  He revoked the temporary status of many immigrants in Florida.  Given all this one would have imagined the environment for Democrats to make gains among Hispanics was present in Florida this year, gains which were made elsewhere.  Yet we fell back.

I don't know what happened but there needs to be a big conversation about the Democratic Hispanic campaign in Florida with this year.  Figuring out what went wrong and correcting it may hold the key to the Presidency in 2020.

PS - am very aware that Florida Hispanic electorate very different from rest of US.  I oversaw a $3m ad campaign in Spanish in Florida in 2004 which ran three different sets of ads - one to Pueto Ricans in central Florida, one to Cubans in South Florida, and one to Colombians also in South Florida.  Well aware of the differences, and is clear now Mexican American voters rejected the GOP in record numbers this election but something  very different happened in Florida.  Need to understand why.  

NDN's 2018 Election Analysis

NDN has produced a new series that takes an in-depth look at the 2018 election results and provides analysis as to what the election means for policymaking over the next two years, the changing demographics of voters, and the 2020 presidential election.

A Good Night For Democrats - 2018 Post-Election Analysis - 11/8/18 - 2018 was a very good election for the Democratic Party.  Next year Democrats will have far more power, Republicans far less.  Important new leaders emerged, GOP saw its position erode in key 2020 battlegrounds, and young voters and Hispanics swung hard for Democrats.

Among "New Coalition" Voters, Democrats Have Their Best Performance Ever - 11/9/18 - In the 2018 elections Democrats had their best showing ever with 18-29s, 18-44s, and Asian-Americans, and their 2nd best with Hispanics.  Bodes well for 2020 and many elections to come.

2018 Was A Very Good Election For Democrats, And An Even Better One For Their Future - 11/16/18 -  In 2018, Democrats had their largest popular vote margin over Republicans since 2006, and their highest percentage support since 1986. Alongside historic gains among all of the growing demographic groups, this election shows the strength of the emerging Democratic coalition.

$38 Million For Beto, And Why It Matters - 10/30/18 - Democrats have been raising a lot of money this cycle.  This is not just about fear of Trump - it is about the broad adoption of a more authentic people based politics suited for the digital age championed by Dean, Obama, and yes even Trump himself. 

A New And Exciting Democratic Party Is Emerging - 11/8/18 - Some thoughts on the rise of a new generation of political leaders and how they are going to change the Democratic Party. 

Some Thoughts About The Caravan - 10/24/18 - The Caravan, composed of 3,000 poor, unarmed, mostly Honduran migrants, poses no threat to the US, and illegal border crossings continue to be way down. Some thoughts on what Democrats should do to respond to Trump's farcical attacks and inane policies.

Iowa, Trump, and the Politics of Globalization/Tariffs - 10/12/18 - Trump’s trade policies are hurting the Iowa economy. His tariffs are unpopular there, and his party is performing badly in the fall elections. Some thoughts on what this means for the Democratic presidential race starting soon. 

In All Important Florida, Democrats Lost Ground With Hispanic Voters - 11/9/18 - In a year when Democrats made gains with Hispanics across the nation, Florida Democrats saw their performance with Hispanics decline.  Work has to be done to figure out why. 

Some Notes On The Decline Of TV, Rise Of Social Media In American Politics - 4/27/18 - Some recent data from Pew Research suggests pace of erosion of TV, rise of digital is picking up, and 2018 likely to be first election more folks get their news online than from TV. Big implications for US politics.

Among "New Coalition" Voters, Democrats Have Best Performance Ever

According to the exit polls the 2018 election saw the Democrats returning to an historically strong position with critical emerging parts of the American electorate — young voters, Hispanics and Asian-Americans. Let’s drill down a bit:

Hispanics — Democrats won the Hispanic vote 69–29, a 40 point spread. This is the best party wide showing since Obama’s 71–27 2012 total, and its second best since Hispanics start becoming a significant share of the electorate. Hispanics also voted in high numbers in a high turnout year, clocking in at 11% of the electorate, equal to 2016 and far exceeding the 8% share we saw in the last three midterms, 2014, 2010 and 2006.

 

 

Young People — 18–29 year olds voted Democratic by 35 points, 67–32, the best showing ever for Dems with this demographic. 18–29 year olds made up 13% of the electorate, the same share as the last two midterms, no small thing in a high turnout election. CIRCLE at Tufts University estimates their turnout rate was 31%, up from 21% in 2014, and the highest in over 2 decades.

 

 

Under 45s — Voters under 45 preferred Democrats by a whopping 25 points, 61–35. This is the biggest spread ever with this demo, 2nd most was Obama’s 16 point spread in 2008. In 2016 the spread was 14, and in 2014 5. So this is a huge and consequential shift. The “age gap” is now bigger than its more famous cousin, the “gender gap,” and is perhaps the most overlooked demographic in American politics today.

 

 

Asian Americans — Asians voted for the Democrats by an astonishing 54 points, 77-23, by far the biggest spread with this demo. In 2016 it was 36 points and in 2014 Republicans won Asian voters by a point. So a remarkable performance.

 

 

Taken together, Democrats performed better with these emerging, growing demographics in 2018 than they have in any other election. Was it Trump? Well run campaigns speaking to everyone not just prime voters? Will leave that discussion for another day. For now I sit amazed at this performance, and what it portends for 2020.

A New and Exciting Democratic Party Is Emerging

I published this a few days before the election and will be returning to it again soon.

Many new Democratic stars have emerged since Trump was elected - Kamala Harris, Andrew Gillum, Beto O'Rourke, Mikie Sherill, Abigail Spanberger, Stacy Abrams....the list goes on and on.  To me what we are seeing emerge is a whole set of leaders who will guide and direct the next Democratic Party, a post Clinton/Obama, a post Trump party.  This is my 14th election day as a Democratic operative and strategist, and I will say I have never seen such a talented and capable crop of candidates running and winning across the country.  The future of the Party feels like it is in very good hands.   

For those of us in DC I think this incoming House freshman class has the opportunity to be an historic class.  The DCCC recruited an extraordinarily accomplished and compelling group this cycle, and it is the deepest and most talented class I've seen since I came to Washington (the 1996 class was pretty great). I discuss the potential of this class in a smart new piece by Ron Brownstein and counsel everyone to be very slow at assigning ideological labels other than pragmatist to many of these new arrivals. 

Having said all that, I think there are three groups arriving in January with the power to shape and influence the direction of the caucus for years to come:

Women - Women brought energy and passion to our politics this cycle, huge number of votes and an historic number of women ran and won/will win their elections.  We will have better numbers in the next few days but expect this new dynamic to be central to everything that happens in the Democratic Party in the House and more broadly across the Party in the coming years.

Patriots/National Security Democrats - Next will be a very large group of veterans and former national security officials. Joining current Members like Seth Moulton, Stephanie Murphy, Conor Lamb and Ruben Gallego, this group could become a deeply consequential one, forging American foreign and security policy for decades to come.  To me this group feels like a the type  of Democrat we haven't seen in a long time - a pre Vietnam War Democrat, a WW II and Cold War Democrats, pragmatic patriots, similar to the class full of veterans which came in 1946 after the war to serve their country again but in another way. 

The reason this new type of Democrat will be with us for some time is just the sheer number of Americans who have served in the war on terror and other military conflicts over the past 17 years.  Many of these young soldiers and security officials have now reached the age and a stage in their life where running for office became an option for them.  This is why I think this a permanent trend at least for the next 10-15 years, and one of those trends which makes the emerging Democratic Party very different from the Party of Clinton and Obama.

NDN has been writing and speaking for some time now about the Democratic Party's very real opportunity to reclaim "patriotism" from the right.  Let us hope this will be the case in the years to come.

The Democratic Socialists - While there is no doubt this new sensibility has resonance in the center-left family, it remains to be seen how powerful it will be next year.  This movement has a compelling, emerging champion in future Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, but there just aren't that many candidates running this cycle with this label as their primary affiliation.  The first two groups we discussed - women and the national secrurity Dems - will likely be much larger in number in the Senate and House next year.  Regardless of numbers, expect this new post-Bernie tribe to be loud and influential. 

While some of these new Members will get absorbed into existing groups like the New Dems, Blue Dogs, Future Forum, Hispanic/Black/AAPI Caucuses, my sense is that this class is going to be so large and its sensibilities new enough that it will itself become a force perhaps equal to any of these existing factions.  Will be fascinating to watch.  And watch this new video which brings together, powerfully, two of these trends - women and national security experience.  Hard to watch this and not sense the emergence of a new post-Clinton, post-Obama Democratic Party.

A Good Night for Democrats - 2018 Post-Election Analysis

This analysis was originally posted on Wed, Nov 7th at 1150am and was last updated on Nov 20th, 8am.  You can find all of NDN's pre and post election analysis here

A Good Night For Democrats – The Democrats now appear to have won between 36 and 39 House seats, the biggest election year gain for House Democrats since 1974, 44 years ago. Democrats also won 7 governorships, close to 400 state legislative seats (5.4% of total), flipped 8 state legislative chambers and ended GOP super majorities in MI, NC and PA.  No question the losses in the US Senate hurt, but national Republicans have to come to terms with what was an extraordinary repudiation of their politics in the 2018 election. The NYT currently estimates that Democrats won the popular vote by 7% and exit polls show a victory of 8%. Both results would put 2018 at the upper end of recent midterms considered waves - 1994: R+7.1% 2006: D+8.0% 2010: R+7.2% 2014: R+5.7%.  It was a very good election for Democrats indeed; and count me in as one those who argued at the time, and believe today, that the President's decision to close with the inflammatory and absurd caravan - particularly after the two domestic terror incidents - rather than a more surburban oriented close was a huge mistake, one which cost him and his party dearly. 

While the Donald Trump and the Republicans still has a great deal of power, they will have far less of it next year. The allocation of political power in the US will more accurately reflect a nation where Democrats consistently win more votes than the Republicans  (6 of 7 last Presidential votes, all time US record).  The House will be Democratic, a majority of Americans will have Democratic governors, wildly gerrymandered GOP supermajorities will have finally been ended, and Democrats will control more state legislative chambers.  What remains remarkable, and perhaps dangerous, that the GOP will have between 51 and 53 seats in the Senate despite losing the popular vote in Senate races in 2016 54%-42% and 57%-42% in 2018. 

GOP Lost Ground in Critical 2020 Battlegrounds – Democrats had strong nights in both the Midwest/Rustbelt and in the Southwest, the regions of the country which will decide the 2020 Presidential election.  Democrats won the MI, MN (2), PA and WI Senate races and MI, MN and PA governors race by very huge margins.  The region's wunderkind Scott Walker was defeated.   Democrats will pick up at least 9 House seats in this region, and while they came up short in the Iowa Governor’s race they now control 3 of the 4 House seats there. Reviewing it all the total collapse of the GOP in MI and PA should be of particular concern to Trump and the GOP

The Southwest, on the other hand, has never been friendly territory for Trump and it got a lot worse this election. As background, the three states which saw the biggest movement towards the Democrats in 2016 were, in order, CA (7pts), TX (6.8pts) and AZ (5.5pts). Last night we saw Beto get within 2 1/2 points in Texas, help Dems win many down ballot races and hold 6 GOP reps to 51% or less (TX-10, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 31).  Rep. Sinema seems to be in process of winning the AZ Senate race and Dems now hold a 5-4 advantage in the AZ Congressional delegation. Democrats had very good/blowout nights in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, so much so that there are questions about whether these will remain in the Presidential battleground in 2020.  Dems are on track to pick up at least 14 House seats in these states including 6 or 7 in California alone, a state where the GOP didn’t even have a Senate candidate on the ballot and where voters with no party preference now outnumber Republicans in registration (and the home of the two most significant GOP Presidents in past 50 years).  We saw intensity too.  AZ, NV and TX saw more people vote early this year than voted in all of 2014, the only 3 states to see that level of increase.

All of this adds up to a night of dangerous erosion for the GOP in this region.  Recall that as recently as 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM and NV and Senator Kerry didn't even contest CO that year.  Trump has accelerated the movement of the heavily Mexican-American part of the US from lean R to deep blue and purple now.

Over the last two years there was always this sense that while the President’s thunderous championing of white nationalist, xenophobic and anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies was hurting him in the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US, it was the key to unlock the Rustbelt and Midwest.  Given the really bad night the GOP had in the northern part of the US that no longer appears to be true  Trump may have used the caravan to win in very red and rural places like Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee, but in the states he needs to win in 2020 Democrats will be far more powerful in just about every state.  Looking at both vote share, and the partisan representation in the state, let's see how the terrain looks for Mr. Trump in 2020: 

Much more Democratic - AZ, CO, MI, MN, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI.  Will be interesting to see if Trump even contests CO, NM, NV and VA in 2020.  AZ now clearly a purple state.

More Democratic - GA, IA, NH.  Georgia now likely to be in play in 2020. 

Not much change - FL, NC (Florida is still up in the air).

More Republican - OH. Will be questions about whether OH remains a battleground state.

My broader point is that Trump barely won the election in 2016, and as of today, the map looks even harder for him in 2020 than 2016. 

Young Voters and Hispanics Continue to Show Their Potential For Democrats – Much will be written about the huge and consequential gender gap this year, but I want to drill down a bit on another huge yawning gap – those over and under 45 years old.  The exits found 18-29 year olds going 67%-32% for Democrats last night, under 45s 61%-36% and those over 45 just 49%-50%.  By comparison, 18-44s went 53%-39% for Clinton in 2016, and over 45s went 52-44% for Trump.  But remarkably the share of the electorate for those under 45 dropped from 44% in 2016 to just 35% in 2018.  Imagine the outcome last night if Democrats were able keep the under 45 participation rate in the 40s – would have been an even bigger blow out.  Given the margins we see here, national Democrats must literally become obsessed now with speaking to and maximizing the turnout of voters under 45.  It is simply one of the highest strategic priorities we have.  And to do so we will have to continue to embrace a post-television politics, as this age cohort essentially no longer watches conventional television.  I wrote about the disappearance of television earlier this year, and also why Beto’s campaign helped show us the future with his remarkable people-centered, social media heavy campaign. 

Latino voters went 69%-29% for Democrats in 2018, slightly up from 2016’s 66%-28%.  This 40 point net showing was among the best in recent elections, and reminds us that in the age of Trump investments in speaking to and turning out Latinos will pay enormous dividends. Or as Democrats in Florida may have just been reminded, failure to do so can cost you close elections. 

We just put together a new memo summing up this and other data.  The bottom line - Democrats had their best showing ever with Asian-Americans, 18-29s, 18-44s and their second best showing with Hispanics.  The Democratic Party's "new coalition" is clearly alive and well, and delivering powerfully six years since the last time Barack Obama was on the ballot. 

More - I published a related piece, "The midterms show Trump might not get re-elected in 2020," on Thursday, November 8th on the Al Jazeera website.  You can also find my thinking about the 2018 election in these stories in the AP, The Houston ChronicleUS News, The Washington Post and this new Washington Post frontpager which refers directly to this analysis. 

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