NDN Blog

Invite: Oct 4 - David Rothkopf on Russia

Please join us tomorrow, Tuesday, October 4th for a live, public discussion with David Rothkopf, author, podcaster and national security thought leader.  We've asked David to spend some time with us reflecting on the nature of America's current conflict with Russia.  It has many dimensions now - information, cyber, political, military.  What is the best way to understand the nature of this conflict? Are we at war with Russia? A hybrid war? Something else?

Join us for an important conversation about what is possibly the most important national security challenge America faces today with one of our leading thinkers.  RSVP for our discussion with David Rothkopf here

To prep for the discussion be sure to read these recent essays from David in the Daily Beast:

Putin Has Left The World No Other Option But Regime Change

Italy’s Far-Right Victory Is a (Small) Win for Putin

Putin’s Going to Be a Bad Loser After His Defeat in Ukraine

We are excited about this one and hope you can join us.  Feel free to invite others - all are welcome.

Invite: Oct 7 - Countering the MAGA Noise Machine - A Conversation with Tara McGowan

On Friday, October 7th at 1pm ET NDN will be hosting Tara McGowan, a leading thinker and practitioner in finding new, more effective ways to get the narratives and arguments of the center-left across in American politics.  Tara is the founder and Publisher of Courier Newsroom, a left-leaning local news organization that has newsrooms in eight battleground states, and veteran political strategist.  Tara will provide an overview of the Courier project, and reflect a bit on the broader challenges we have in breaking through in a very noisy and often dystopian modern information environment. 

RSVP for our conversation with Tara McGowan here.  This will be a good one for sure. Feel free to invite friends and colleagues.  All are welcome!

More on Tara McGowan

Tara McGowan is the founder and Publisher of Courier Newsroom, a left-leaning local news organization that has newsrooms in eight battleground states. 

A former political campaign strategist, Tara has seen firsthand how America’s information crisis has contributed to the rise of authoritarianism and the deterioration of social trust. In 2017, Tara founded a nonprofit, ACRONYM, to build the first organization focused entirely on increasing experimentation, innovation and impact in digital communications and organizing tactics. As part of that work, Tara oversaw the largest digital advertising program that helped remove Donald Trump from office in the 2020 election. Recognizing that successful investment in safeguarding our democracy and building progressive power in America requires diversifying the left’s traditional approach to communications and increasing year-round reach and engagement of the millions of American who vote infrequently, Tara founded Courier Newsroom in 2019, and departed ACRONYM in 2021 to focus her time fully on building a more honest, values-driven, and strategic media ecosystem for the left. Today, Courier’s network of newsrooms have built trust with over 800,000 less politically engaged online subscribers, reach over 60M Americans online each year, and have measurably increased low propensity voter turnout in over 20 state and federal elections.

Earlier in her career, Tara led multi-million dollar digital advertising and marketing programs for nonprofits and political groups, including Priorities USA, NextGen Climate, Planned Parenthood, and President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. She attended journalism school at NYU and was briefly a reporter and Associate Producer at 60 Minutes and PBS Frontline before making democracy work her full-time focus and passion.

Video: Yes, Americans Are Better Off - A Conversation with Rob Shapiro

On Friday, September 23rd we sat down with our friend and colleague Rob Shapiro for a discussion  of his compelling new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

You can watch the conversation with Rob here.  The core of what we discussed is how Democrats need to close with a very strong argument that with them in power once again - despite COVID, an insurrection, supply chain disruptions, Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the global inflation it brought - things have gotten better for the American people.  As we wrote in a recent piece on the September jobs report we think we have a very strong case to make.  Consider that under Biden we've seen:

- 5 times as many jobs as last 3 GOP POTUS COMBINED

- Lowest poverty, uninsured rates in US history, lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII

- Wage gains, new business starts at elevated/record levels

- twice as many job openings as unemployed people - a record

- Deficit plummeting, gas prices coming way down

- the passage of bills which are making historic investments in infrastructure, microchips, clean technology and health care which will create growth and jobs for decades to come

We are better off.  Now we need to go sell it.  An excerpt from Rob's terrific analysis:

"In June 2022, the average working American earned $74,643 in wages and salaries, compared to $74,624 in January 2021 and $70,274 in February 2020. Even with 9.5 million more people working, the average working person earned as much in June, after inflation, as when Biden took office. And compared to just before the pandemic, when employment was comparable to today, the average person earns 6.2 percent even after inflation. The answer to Reagan’s question is “Yes” on wages and salaries as well as jobs, a remarkable achievement given the pandemic.

Americans are also significantly wealthier than before Biden took office. The pandemic and the jobs boom were primarily responsible. As the Omicron variant spread, government checks enabled more savings and increased spending that helped drive up employment. According to the Federal Reserve, after inflation the net assets of Americans increased by nearly $2 trillion from the first quarter of 2021—when Biden took office—to the first quarter of 2022. (We exclude the top 1 percent because their assets are notoriously hard to measure.)  

And it’s not the typical case of the rich getting richer. The fastest growth in net assets occurred among low- and moderate-income households. From the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the inflation-adjusted wealth of households in the lowest income quintile jumped 15.2 percent and just 0.8 percent for those in the top income quintile (again, excluding the top 1 percent)."

Video: Yes, Americans Are Better Off - A Conversation with Rob Shapiro (9/23/22)

On Friday, September 23rd we sat down with our friend and colleague Rob Shapiro for a discussion  of his compelling new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

You can watch the conversation with Rob here.  The core of what we discussed is how Democrats need to close with a very strong argument that with them in power once again - despite COVID, an insurrection, supply chain disruptions, Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the global inflation it brought - things have gotten better for the American people.  As we wrote in a recent piece on the September jobs report we think we have a very strong case to make.  Consider that under Biden we've seen:

- 5 times as many jobs as last 3 GOP POTUS COMBINED

- Lowest poverty, uninsured rates in US history, lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII

- Wage gains, new business starts at elevated/record levels

- twice as many job openings as unemployed people - a record

- Deficit plummeting, gas prices coming way down

- the passage of bills which are making historic investments in infrastructure, microchips, clean technology and health care which will create growth and jobs for decades to come

We are better off.  Now we need to go sell it.  An excerpt from Rob's terrific analysis:

"In June 2022, the average working American earned $74,643 in wages and salaries, compared to $74,624 in January 2021 and $70,274 in February 2020. Even with 9.5 million more people working, the average working person earned as much in June, after inflation, as when Biden took office. And compared to just before the pandemic, when employment was comparable to today, the average person earns 6.2 percent even after inflation. The answer to Reagan’s question is “Yes” on wages and salaries as well as jobs, a remarkable achievement given the pandemic.

Americans are also significantly wealthier than before Biden took office. The pandemic and the jobs boom were primarily responsible. As the Omicron variant spread, government checks enabled more savings and increased spending that helped drive up employment. According to the Federal Reserve, after inflation the net assets of Americans increased by nearly $2 trillion from the first quarter of 2021—when Biden took office—to the first quarter of 2022. (We exclude the top 1 percent because their assets are notoriously hard to measure.)  

And it’s not the typical case of the rich getting richer. The fastest growth in net assets occurred among low- and moderate-income households. From the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the inflation-adjusted wealth of households in the lowest income quintile jumped 15.2 percent and just 0.8 percent for those in the top income quintile (again, excluding the top 1 percent)."

Video: Tom Bonier on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe (9/14/22)

On Wed, September 14th we hosted TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier for a timely discussion about the big surge in women voting and registering to vote post Roe.  Tom has been at the forefront of gathering data from across the country about what may be a hugely important development in the 2022 elections, something he wrote about in this NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

You can watch our conversation here

As for some of the things we reference in the conversation, you can find NDN's core 2022 election here, and a video of our "New, Bluer Election" briefing here

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U.

Invite: Sept 23rd - Rob Shapiro: "Yes, Americans Are Better Off"

This week we are bringing our colleague Rob Shapiro back to for a discussion of his compelling his new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

This will be a good one – please join us and feel free to invite others.  Biden’s economic strategy has been far more successful than is understood and Rob will walk us through what we know today.  Be sure to review NDN's recent deep dive on the September jobs report and our transition from strong recovery to strong expansion which is now underway. 

Our discussion will be live over Zoom at 1pm ET on Friday, September 23rd.  A video of the event will be posted later Friday afternoon.  Please RSVP here and we look forward to seeing you next week!

 

 

Video: NDN's New, Bluer Election Presentation (9/8/22)

For the past several months we've taken our core election analysis and put it into a 25 minute video presentation called it's a "New, Bluer Election."  We are pleased to share a newly updated showing recorded on Thursday, September 8th.  You can watch it here, and review our comprehensive analysis of the election here

Feel free to share this presentation with others.  And if you have a group of at least 100 people I am open to presenting it to your group, schedule allowing.  Just DM me Twitter at @SimonWDC and we can try to get it scheduled.  It is newly updated with each showing. 

Be sure to join us this Wed, Sept 14th at 1230pm ET for a discussion with Tom Bonier who has release really compelling research showing a big surge of women registering to vote, voting and requesting vote by mail ballots post Roe.  You can RSVP here

And if you like our election presentation we think you will like what's been our primary political presentation over the past few years, With Democrats Things Get Better.  Learn more, watch here.  We promise you won't be disapointed. 

Invite: Sept 14th - Tom Bonior on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe

Come join us on Monday, September 14th at 12:30pm ET for a timely political discussion with Dem strategist and data guy Tom Bonier, who will be discussing his new NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

Tom has crunched the numbers and we are seeing a huge surge in women voting and registering in the days after Roe ended and the GOP enacted extremist abortion restrictions across the US.

In what is sure to be a lively session he will discuss what it all means for 2022 and beyond.  You can RSVP here.  Feel free to invite others - all are welcome.  Note that this is a new day and time - Wed, September 14th 12:30pm. 

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U. Local 500.

Join us - this will be a good one!

Video: Tom Bonier on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe (9/14/22)

On Wed, September 14th we hosted TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier for a timely discussion about the big surge in women voting and registering to vote post Roe.  Tom has been at the forefront of gathering data from across the country about what may be a hugely important development in the 2022 elections, something he wrote about in this NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

You can watch our conversation here

As for some of the things we reference in the conversation, you can find NDN's core 2022 election here, and a video of our "New, Bluer Election" briefing here

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U.

Local 500.

Invite: NDN Election Briefings - Sept 8th and 9th

To talk about the many encouraging developments for Democrats in the 2022 election we’ve put together two briefings for you in the coming week. The briefings, conducted over Zoom, are:

Thursday, September 8th, 8pm ET – RSVP Here

Friday, September 9th, Noon ET - RSVP Here

These briefings are free and open to all so you are welcome to invite friends and colleagues.  Due to technical issues last week we were not able to record our Friday briefing as promised - sorry for the inconvenience!

To learn more about our take on the 2022 elections check out this new thread and our big analysis, “Dems Are Closing Strong, Republicans Are Closing As Ugly As Ugly As It Gets.”  You can also find our work and insights cited in the press and podcasts below. 

To a new, bluer election - Simon

Further Reading, Media Citations

In November of 2021, we published a memo, Memo: 3 Reasons Why 2022 Won’t Be 2010, that posited the GOP's embrace of MAGA would make it likely that 2022 would not be a traditional midterm and Democrats could end up overperforming expectations. In May we predicted that the combination of a return of mass shootings, the ending of Roe, and the fallout from the Jan 6th Committee would reawaken the anti-MAGA majority and make this election much closer than many thought possible.  In mid-June, we released an election analysis which argued we were already looking at a competitive not a wave election - that there were signs of what we call the MAGA hangover (GOP underperformance) even before Roe ended.  Then Roe ended, and NDN has been at the national forefront of charting what is now clearly a new, bluer election.    

We’ve put together our electoral work over the past few months into a 20 minute data-filled presentation, “A New, Bluer Election.”  You can watch it here.  We also rolled out an updated version of With Democrats Things Get Better, our in-depth look at how the two US parties have fared over the past 30 years.  You can learn more and watch here.   On Tuesday, Aug 9th we recorded an updated version of our core presentation for Swing Left.  You can watch here, beginning at minute 12 or so. 

In recent weeks our election analysis has been cited in articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The Bulwark, Peter Weber in The Week, Dick Polman in his nationally syndicated column, Jim Puzzanghera in the Boston Globe and Kiran Stacey in the Financial Times.  I've also hit the pod and radio circuit, discussing of our electoral thesis with Matt Lewis on his podcast, Ian Masters for his radio show/podcast, a new episode of That Trippi Show our good friend Joe Trippi, David Catanese's Too Close to CallHotMics with Maria Cardona and Alice Stewart and the Start Me Up pod with Kimberley Johnson.  On Thursday, August 4th I joined Mehdi Hasan's show on Peacock for a spirited discussion of the 2022 elections. 

front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein gives our big argument serious consideration in a comprehensive CNN analysis.  Greg Sargent devotes a whole column to our analysis, "Meet the Lonely Democrat Who Thinks His Party Can Win."  This one is a particularly good read. 

Kristian Ramos has a new take in Salon that includes our work, and comes down where we come down - time for Dems to go on offense now.  I did a long sit down with Jonathan Alter for his Old Goats substack - was a deep and rich conversation about this election and the state of our politics today.  Check it out.  Nicole Narea does a great treatment of our concept of "The MAGA hangover" in a new Vox piece and the FT's Courtney Weaver cites us on the struggles of GOP candidates across the country.  Politico's Max Tani and Alex Thompson do a deep dive on our analysis in a fun new piece, "Meet The Most Optimistic Dem Online."  Susan Glasser gives our 2022 election take serious consideration in a new New Yorker essay, "Is There A Serious Case for A Non-Awful Election for Democrats This Fall?"  Jonathan Weisman features some of our insights in a New York Times article about Dem chances for taking the House.  EJ Dionne quotes us in a new Washington Post essay about Democratic optimism post the NY House specials.  Blake Hounshell features our analysis in a New York Times article, "Republicans in Disarray."

And we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!

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