NDN Blog

Arizona District 7 Congressman Raul Grijalva is locked in a campaign death match with Tea Party and Sarah Palin favorite Ruth McClung. This week things were taken to another level when it was revealed that McClung had released mailers depicting Congressman Grijalva in a questionable manner.

Scott Wong and Jonathon Allen have the full story up here:

Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva says his opponent’s depiction of him with a giant mustache in a fundraising appeal is "insulting," and Hispanic groups say it promotes a racial stereotype of Latinos.

But Republican Ruth McClung's camp counters that she's just playing off the hirsute hallmark of Grijalva's own campaign logo.

Grijalva questioned the motives behind the mailers:

"It's insulting, but what can you do?" Grijalva, who is Hispanic, said in a phone interview. "It's exaggerated and meant to create an image of evil and something sinister. It says, 'He's one of them.' And they have the liberty to do that because we are in a campaign."

Others have noted that these types of images are dangerous and highly racialized:

Rosalind Gold, head of policy research and advocacy at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, says it plays into the negative "bandito" stereotype of Latinos.

"It is definitely an attempt by the candidate to appeal to negative stereotypes of Latinos, and it may indeed backfire," Gold said. "This is clearly disrespectful to many Latinos, and they will send a message when they vote that this kind of advertising is insulting."

Yesterday, NDN wrote about Arizona State Senator Russell Pearce taking SB1070 national with his group State Legislators For Legal Immigration.

Well today as it turns out, Pearce and his organization are going to launch an initiative to revoke birthright citizenship. Alia Beard Rau of The Arizona Republic has the full story here:

Republican lawmakers in 15 states Tuesday announced a nationwide effort to change the way the 14th Amendment is interpreted and stop granting citizenship to babies born in the USA to illegal immigrants.

A national coalition called State Legislators for Legal Immigration is coordinating the effort.

Russell Pearce is getting a little help from his buddy Kris Kobach, who is not a state legislator, but is an avid opportunist:

Arizona state Sen. Russell Pearce said Kansas lawyer Kris Kobach, who helped draft Arizona's tough immigration law now on appeal in the federal courts, is working with him and Republican state Rep. John Kavanagh to draft a bill that all the states could use as a model on the citizenship issue.

The legislation is ready to go in front of the Arizona legislation in January:

Pearce said a bill draft is written and will be ready for consideration when the Arizona legislative session starts in January.

Pearce also discussed how the legislation would work:

He would not say exactly how they will propose denying citizenship but said the legislation would not be retroactive.

Previous attempts in Arizona have focused on tinkering with state-issued birth certificates.

When asked how the state would prove citizenship in a delivery room, Pearce said delayed birth certificates could be given to allow parents time to gather proof of citizenship.

This process would face considerable federal and constitutional challenges, as birthright citizenship is guaranteed in the 14th Amendment:

States issue birth certificates but citizenship is a federal issue.

The 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868, states that "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."

The amendment's primary intent was to guarantee citizenship to African Americans, particularly former slaves. But the question of whether the authors also intended to allow the children of illegal immigrants to become citizens has been a matter of debate.

Some advocates have proposed repealing or changing the 14th Amendment, but both Kavanagh and Pearce said they want the Supreme Court to reconsider its interpretation.

More on this as it develops

In Simons blog piece, In Nevada, conservative group launches ads encouraging Latinos not to vote, he defended the need for Hispanic's to continue to vote in the important elections ahead. Apparently Univision, the network that was set to air the advertisement urging Hispanics not to vote, agrees.

Ben Smith of The Politico has the full story HERE:

The Spanish-language network Univision has refused to air an ad from a GOP-led Hispanic group telling Hispanic voters to sit out the race between Sharron Angle and Harry Reid.

The network cited its commitment to civic engagement as a reason not to air the advertisements, a quote from Univision is below:

“Univision will not be running any spots from Latinos for Reform related to voting," said a spokeswoman for the network, Carolina Valencia, in an email. "Univision prides itself on promoting civic engagement and our extensive national campaigns encourage Hispanics to vote.”

Additionally the network has distanced itself from Robert Posada, who was the campaigns spokesmen:

"It is also important to clarify that while Mr. Robert de Posada has on occasion provided political commentary on Univision, representing one of various points of views, he is not in any way affiliated with Univision," Valencia said.

Arizona State Senator Russel Pierce is set to take SB1070 national, by spearheading a national working group to move the anti immigrant law into other states.

E.J. Montini of The Arizona Republic , has the full story here:

It isn't very often that a state legislator gets the kind of national attention that state Sen. Russell Pearce has gotten for having sponsored SB 1070.

Apparently, that hasn't been lost on state legislators in other states hoping for their 15 minutes of fame on FOX news. So, Pearce and some of his acolytes in other states have gotten together for what Pearce calls a "national work group" that will most likely lead to a multi-state effort to pass legislation denying citizenship to children who are born to illegal immigrants.

The national working group that Pierce would lead is callled State Legislators for Legal Immigration:

Pearce is part of a national movement calling itself State Legislators for Legal Immigration, among other things, the legislators say on their website that that have "entered into a working partnership with the Immigration ReformLaw Institute (IRLI) to create a comprehensive package of model of National Security Begins at Home legislative solutions that any state lawmaker can introduce to effectively shut down all economic attractions and incentives for illegal aliens."

Pierce is counting on solidifying power in the state legislator to allow himself to continue to push his Anti-Immigrant legislation nationally:

Pearce is counting on the election next month to solidify his power at the state capitol, putting him in the position of de facto governor  (since there's no way that Brewer could or would challenge anything he does) and then making sure that he stays in the national spotlight on the immigration issue.

The race between the son of Vice President Dan Quayle, Ben Quayle and his Democratic opponent John Hulbard is starting to look like it could be a Democratic pick up in a highly conservative district.

A Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (No trend lines), shows that John Hulbard, is actually leading in their poll:

Ben Quayle (R) 44
Jon Hulburd (D) 46

Markos, analysis is worth reading:

....this is a solidly conservative district, one in which McCain won 57-42.

Now there is no intensity gap here. Or better put, there is a gap, but it goes the other way -- the composition of this sample is 52-40 McCain, or three points more Democratic than in 2008.

That's likely part of the "favorite son" gap we've seen in polling in Illinois, Delaware, Hawaii and Alaska -- in which the presidential ticket boosted partisan performance for the home-state candidates.

He goes on to note that Quayle has had a hard time closing on independents and moderates:

In any case, Democrats have a legitimate and serious pickup opportunity in this district. The reason is that Quayle is having a hard time locking down moderates and independents.

Hulburd is winning independents 50-36, and moderates 66-27. While only eight percent of Obama voters are defecting to Quayle, 18 percent of McCain voters are going with Hulburd. And even 19 percent of Republican voters are choosing the Democratic candidate, likely an artifact of a nasty primary.

In fact, Quayle's favorable/unfavorable rating of 34/52 is shockingly bad for a first-time House candidate, and includes 30 percent unfavorables from Republican voters, and 29/51 from independents. Hulburd is at 33/20, including 37/16 from independents. Yet given that half of voters have no idea what to think of Hulburd, he may be benefiting from an "anyone but Quayle" dynamic.

The full Public Policy Polling on the District 3 can be seen here

GOP candidate Sharron Angle continues to make bizarre remarks about the Hispanic community in Nevada.

Las Vegas Sun reporter Jon Ralston has the full story up here, excerpts are below:

As more of the video surfaces from GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle's meeting last week with Rancho High School's Hispanic kids, the more bizarre it gets.
Elsewhere on this blog, I have posted the video of her claiming an infamous still she and Louisiana Sen. David Vitter used in an ad, an incendiary image of Hispanic thugs, may not have been an image of Hispanics.
That was nutty enough. But at the same meeting, according to video I have obtained and taken by one of the Hispanic students, she said some of the kids looked more Asian.

The video can be seen here, and a transcript is below:

"So that’s what we want is a secure and sovereign nation and, you know, I don’t know that all of you are Latino.
Some of you look a little more Asian to me. I don’t know that. [Note: it's the Hispanic Student Union. The whole room is Hispanic teenagers.]
What we know, what we know about ourselves is that we are a melting pot in this country. My grandchildren are evidence of that. I’m evidence of that. I’ve been called the first Asian legislator in our Nevada State Assembly."

It is important to note that the group she was speaking to was entirely Hispanic, as it was an event put on by the Hispanic Student Union... Also worth noting Angle, is not Asian, so her statement that she would be, the first Asian legislator in our Nevada State Assembly, makes no sense. Make of that what you will.....

This morning Simon wrote a new analysis, based on the work of Professor Alan Abramowitz, on the accuracy of  Gallups polling going into the midterm elections.

In Simon's analysis, which can be read here, he argued that the sample size was flawed and tainted the overall accuracy of Gallups polling. In particular he noted that it is highly unlikely that the Hispanic vote is trending Republican. Simon's quote is below:

I think it makes the case, persuasively, that the very Republican heavy Gallup sample and results are deeply flawed, and need to be discounted this year.  

If nothing else the suggestion that the Hispanic vote could end up being plus Republican this year makes the poll a wild outlier.  The Hispanic vote has gone 2:1 Democratic the last two elections.  In the last two major polls of Hispanics this year the numbers came back 3:1 and 2.5:1 Democratic.   Given how anti-immigrant the national Republican Party has been this year, trumping even their over the top rhetoric and proposals of previous years, the idea that there has been a huge swing of Latino voters to the Rs is not plausible.

Lets look at the numbers from recent polls of Hispanics. A recently released Pew Hispanic Center Poll  actually has the Republican position eroding from already weak 67%/31% Obama/McCain numbers:

Two-thirds (65%) of Latino registered voters say they plan to support the Democratic candidate in their local congressional district, while just 22% support the Republican candidate, according to a nationwide survey of Latinos.

A recent Latino Decisions Poll, shows a very similar story:

With little more than two weeks to go until the November election, the most apparent characteristic of this week’s track is stability. Latinos prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates, 59.0% to 22.3%, with 18.7% undecided.

To be clear each of these polls shows the GOP Hispanic number to be at 22%, or 9% less than the GOP performance in 2008.   This of course coming in a year when the GOP has substantially improved its position with the overall American electorate.  Given the virulent anti-immigrant stance of the GOP it is simply implausible to have anticipated any kind of GOP gains with Latinos this year. These two polls clearly capture the eroding position of an already weakened GOP with Latinos.  Though Gallup will argue that it is using a tighter likely voter screen which could result in a different result, it is just implausible given these trends lines and basic common sense to construct a scenerio where Latinos have swung back to the GOP this cycle.  These results of course draw into question the entire Gallup likely voter sample.

Molly Ball of the Politico has written a story about NDN's Southwest Get Out The Vote Spanish language Campaign, entitled Arizona Ads Target Hispanic Vote:

The Spanish-language ads that NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network, is airing in the Phoenix media market play on the Hispanic community’s anger at the two politicians, both of whom have made tough tactics against illegal immigrants their political trademark.

NDN also plans to air ads urging Hispanics to vote in the Las Vegas and Denver markets, standard-issue get-out-the-vote spots that don’t mention the two controversial pols.

The article translates some of the language from the advertisements:

“Since Arpaio started with his raids, and since Brewer took over the governorship, each morning I look in the mirror and see myself as their Mr. Scapegoat,” a man says in one of the Arizona ads. “That’s what they have done for you and me. Even though we are Americans!”

It urges listeners to “let them know we’ve had enough.”

The article also goes into the polling done behind the campaign:

NDN’s polls and focus groups found near-universal recognition of Arpaio, who faces a Justice Department investigation for his aggressive immigration crackdowns, and Brewer, whose backing of the controversial state Senate Bill 1070 has made her a national celebrity among opponents of immigration reform. Even the small minority of Hispanics who agreed with the policies in question disliked the pair.

Senior Vice President Andres Ramirez was also featured in the article:

NDN, a Washington-based think tank and advocacy organization, hopes to channel that anger into turnout. The message of the ads is, “If you don’t vote, you’re saying it’s OK for them to keep doing those things,” said NDN Senior Vice President Andres Ramirez. “You need to stand up and let them know you disagree.” 

Also NDN has also gotten great coverage from the Spanish language media, please check here, for the full story.

En el día de ayer, NDN inauguró su campaña de radio en los estados de Colorado, Nevada y Arizona, exhortando a latinos que salgan a votar en las elecciones el próximo 2 de noviembre. Nuestra campaña tuvo cobertura inmediata en la prensa hispana:

Washington Hispanic -Demócratas lanzan campaña en español para que latinos voten

Hoy el grupo NDN anunció una nueva campaña que se llevará a cabo en los estados de Nevado y Colorado y anunció también la continuación de la campaña en Arizona con dos nuevos anuncios.  La campaña en NV y CO  incluye nuevos anuncios de radio en español, con el propósito de motivar a los votantes latinos a que aprovechen la oportunidad de participar en la votación temprana que existe en los dos estados. 

Azteca 21 "Sal a Votar", anuncios en las estaciones de radio de Arizona, Nevada y Colorado mencionan que Brewer y Arapaio "se han pasado de la raya"

Los anuncios ya al aire en Arizona impulsan a los Latinos a que salgan a votar el 2 de noviembre, mencionando a la gobernadora Brewer y a Arapaio como razón suficiente para que los latinos hagan lo posible por cambiar el ambiente destructivo político que existe con estos dos en sus cargos corrientes.

Yahoo en Espanol Campaña de anuncios insta a hispanos a que salgan a votar en estados clave

El Vicepresidente Ejecutivo de NDN, Andrés Ramirez fue citado por Yahoo en Español! hablando de la importancia del voto latino en estas elecciones de medio término:

"Nunca ha sido tan importante que los latinos vayan a votar como lo es ahora en estas elecciones, por el futuro de nuestra comunidad", dijo Andrés Ramírez, vicepresidente ejecutivo de NDN, y el encargado de los asuntos latinos.

"Los latinos fuimos gran parte de la razón por la cual fue posible el momento histórico que vivimos en 2008 (con la elección del presidente Barack Obama). No podemos dejar de participar ahora", enfatizó Ramírez.
Señaló que están en juego "el futuro de las políticas económicas y sociales de Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, y el resto de este gran país".

El noticiero escribió descriptivamente sobre los anuncios de NDN y el grupo publicitario Elevación:

"Dicen que el hubiera no existe pero sí existe y nos persigue toda la vida...no cargues con otro hubiera, vota del 20 al 31 de octubre, mientras antes mejor", dice parte del anuncio para Colorado.

Otro anuncio, también para Colorado, alienta a los latinos a participar en las urnas porque, al recordar la histórica elección de 2008, señala que "se pudo una vez, se puede de nuevo."

Today, NDN is announcing new Spanish language media campaigns in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. Below is the Spanish language press release and links to the advertisements:

NUEVOS ANUNCIOS DE RADIO POR EL GRUPO NDN URGEN A LATINOS A PARTICIPAR EN LA VOTACIÓN TEMPRANA EN NV Y CO, Y URGEN EN ARIZONA A SALIR A VOTAR EL 2 DE NOVIEMBRE USANDO A LA GOBERNADORA BREWER Y ARAPAIO COMO RAZON DE VOTAR

Campaña enfatiza importancia de asegurar que las voces latinas sean escuchadas en estas elecciones de medio término especialmente si los latinos quieren ser arquitectos de su propio futuro político

Washington DC -- NDN está muy orgulloso del lanzamiento de una nueva campaña que se llevará a cabo en los estados de Nevada, Colorado y Arizona.  La campaña incluye nuevos anuncios de radio en español, con el propósito de motivar a los votantes latinos a que aprovechen la oportunidad de participar en la votación temprana que existe en Nevada y en Colorado, y también para urgir a los votantes en Arizona a que salgan a votar el 2 de noviembre si quieren  cambiar el rumbo político y social de la comunidad latina.    

“Nunca ha sido tan importante que los latinos vayan a votar como lo es ahora en estas elecciones de medio término, por el futuro de nuestra comunidad,” dijo Andres Ramirez, Vicepresidente Ejecutivo de NDN, y el encargado de los asuntos latinos.  “Nosotros los latinos fuimos una gran parte de la razón por la cual el momento histórico que vivimos en el 2008 fue posible.  No podemos dejar de participar ahora.  Es más crucial aún que participemos en estas elecciones, pues el control del congreso y muchos otros cargos a nivel estatal están en juego, y con ello, el futuro de las políticas económicas y sociales de Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, y el resto de este gran país.”

Los nuevos anuncios urgen a los votantes latinos en Nevada y Colorado a que aprovechen la oportunidad y capacidad de participar en persona en la sesión de votación temprana que ofrecen ambos estados.  Los anuncios en Arizona impulsan a los Latinos a que salgan a votar el 2 de noviembre, mencionando a la gobernadora Brewer y a Arapaio como razón suficiente para que los latinos hagan lo posible por cambiar el ambiente destructivo político que existe con estos dos en sus cargos corrientes. 

Uno de los anuncios en Nevada y en Colorado describe a varios jóvenes votantes latinos hablando del día de elecciones en el 2008, y como se sintieron al ser parte de ese movimiento histórico.  Luego aciertan que el momento no ha terminado, haciéndonos sentir que todavía hay mucho por lograr, y diciendo además que “se pudo una vez, se puede de nuevo.” 

El otro anuncio que también se lanzará pronto en los dos estados, habla sobre la importancia de no tener ningún remordimiento sobre no haber hecho algo en la vida.  En este caso, el anuncio de radio hace un llamado a que se salga a votar, pues así no nos arrepentiremos de no haber votado. 

Los anuncios que se escucharán en Arizona, mencionan que Brewer y Arapaio se han pasado de la raya, echándole la culpa a los latinos por todo tipo de males sociales que estamos pasando, y que los latinos tienen que hacer algo al respecto para cambiar el ambiente hostil que han creado los dos titulares en Arizona. 

“Si no votamos, no nos podemos quejar luego de las políticas que nos imponen nuestros líderes,” Ramirez dijo.  “Sólo votando nos aseguramos de tener una fuerte voz sobre el futuro de nuestras familias y así ser arquitectos de nuestro propio destino político, económico y social.”  

La votación temprana comienza en Nevada el 16 de octubre y dura hasta el 29 de octubre, y en Colorado empieza el 20 de octubre y dura hasta el 31 de octubre.  El día de las elecciones en todo el país es el 2 de noviembre del 2010.

La Campaña en Arizona

La Campaña en Colorado

La Campaña en Nevada