Yesterday, we released a compendium of NDN’s best political analysis from the past several years. These memos and essays cover the main arguments coming from NDN: The end of the conservative ascendancy and the dawn of a "new politics," the emergence of new voting groups like the Millennials and Hispanics, the power that a whole array of new media and technology tools are unleashing into our democracy, and old-fashioned number crunching and analysis on everything from the role of independents, the economy and video in the elections. We've also included some of our analysis from the election of 2006, a day that saw the end of the conservative era, and set the stage for tomorrow's election, which will mark the beginning of a new one.
Millennial Makeover Authors Join NDN as Fellows - NDN is excited to announce that Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, authors of the best-selling book Millennial Makeover, have joined NDN as Fellows. Morley and Mike are two of the most insightful and prescient interpreters of the profound demographic shifts taking place in our country today. NDN has a long history of working with Morley and Mike; they co-authored a seminal 2006 paper, "Politics of the Millennial Generation," for our affiliate, the New Politics Institute, and have spoken at several NDN events, including one in March about the Millennial transformation of American politics. They are an important and tremendously impressive addition to the NDN Team. To read bios of Morley and Mike, please click here.
NDN has long argued that Millennials, along with Hispanics, are becoming core elements of a new, sustainable 21st century progressive coalition. To learn more about how these demographics are changing the face of American politics, read our reports, "Hispanics Rising II" and "The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation."
NDN Breaking Through - NDN has been a major player in shaping the narrative surrounding the 2008 election. Here's a recap of our press from the last few weeks.
Simon's election analysis was recently featured in the Financial Times (11/4), the Arizona Republic (11/4), and The Hill (11/3), on NPR (11/4/08), and in DemFromCT's daily poll roundup on DailyKos (11/1), which linked to his front-page Huffington Post (10/31) article, as well as in Newsday (10/27), the Arizona Republic (10/26), and the Huffington Post (10/28, again). He was quoted in the VIBE cover story, "The Tipping Point" (10/14) about the historic implications of the rise of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. Dan Balz quoted Simon in the Washington Post after the third and final presidential debate (10/16). Simon also provided analysis of the election in the Independent (10/22), Reuters (10/22, as well as here on 10/17), and in several more featured posts on the Huffington Post (here, 10/21, here, 10/22, and here, 10/17). His election commentary also aired on radio stations across the country (10/22), and he was featured on WAMU's "Power Breakfast." Finally, Andres was featured in the Wall Street Journal (10/31) speaking about the increasing importance of early voting.
Our work on Hispanic issues has garnered widespread attention in the last few weeks. Our recent polling on immigration reform was featured in a front page article in the Wall Street Journal (11/1). Ron Brownstein quoted Simon about demographic shifts on MSNBC's "Road to the White House." Simon hit on similar themes involving the Hispanic electorate and the country's changing electoral map in the San Francisco Chronicle (10/26), Bloomberg (10/26), the San Francisco Chronicle (10/13), Bloomberg (10/17), and Hispanic Trending (10/9). Andres also talked about the importance of the Hispanic electorate in the Latino Journal (10/12), and our recent immigration poll of battleground states was featured in a diary on DailyKos (10/16).
On the green front, Michael was featured in the Council on Foreign Relations (10/30) discussing energy prices and cutting carbon emissions, and had a featured post about dealing with climate change in a troubled economy in the Huffington Post's Green section (10/22). Rob was featured in Grist (10/28) speaking about clean infrastructure and a second economic stimulus.
NDN also remained a strong voice on the economy: Rob was quoted recently in a big story in the New York Times (10/22) and the International Herald-Tribune (10/21) about the Treasury backing the consolidation of banks, was featured in the Philadelphia Inquirer (10/14), and had this excellent quote in the Washington Times (10/17).
Finally, NDN also made several TV appearances recently. Our event with Simon and Joe Trippi was broadcast on C-SPAN, Simon went on BBC World News to discuss the election (relevant section begins at 1:40), and Andres appeared on several Nevada TV channels, including Fox and ABC, condemning illegal voter suppression tactics targeting Hispanic voters.
NDN's newest fellows, Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, offer some excellent analysis today of the important role Millennials will play in tomorrow's election. They posit that "this year, the sheer size and overwhelming unity of Millennials is likely to provide Barack Obama with a much larger advantage" than John Kerry enjoyed among this group in 2004.
I'd just like to offer a quick piece of anecdotal evidence to back this up. I was on Facebook just now (for work purposes of course), and noticed that more than half a million people have now signed up to have their status automatically updated to display a GOTV message. Users can choose whether the message says to get out and vote for Obama, McCain, or just to get out and vote, and then pass the word on to up to 40 friends at a time. Here are what people have chosen so far:
So far, Facebook users are breaking more than four to one for Obama. That's what we Millennials might call "PWNAGE."
10:45 PM UPDATE: More than 840,000 people have now signed up (!)
With the elections just two days away now, it was a very busy week here at NDN. Yesterday, our recent polling on immigration reform was featured in the lead article in the Wall Street Journal, an excellent piece by Jonathan Weisman:
Between 2000 and this year, the Hispanic electorate will have doubled, to 12% of voters, according to Census data and NDN, a Democratic group that studies the electorate. That growth has been concentrated in once-Republican states, not only in the Mountain West but in the South. By 2006, Hispanics represented 31% of voters in New Mexico, 13% in Nevada, 11% in Florida and 8% in Colorado.
President Bush and his political team were able to ride that wave, nearly doubling the GOP's share of the Latino vote from 21% in 1996 to 40% in 2004, according to exit polls. Then came 2006 and the Republican Party embrace of get-tough legislation on illegal immigration, followed by Republican efforts to kill bipartisan bills to stiffen border enforcement and provide illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship.
In 2006, Republican support among Hispanics fell to 30%. Even Sen. McCain, who co-authored the bipartisan immigration legislation, does not appear able to reverse the trend. An NDN poll in August, when Sens. Obama and McCain were virtually tied in the polls, found Sen. Obama leading among Colorado Hispanics 56% to 26% and Nevada Hispanics 62% to 20%.
Andres was also featured in the Wall Street Journal speaking about the increasing importance of early voting, Michael was featured in the Council on Foreign Relations discussing energy prices and cutting carbon emissions, and Rob was featured in Grist speaking about clean infrastructure and a second economic stimulus.
Finally, aside from the print and Web media, NDN also made several TV appearances last week. Our event with Simon and Joe Trippi was broadcast on C-SPAN, Simon went on BBC World News to discuss the election (relevant section begins at 1:40), and Andres appeared on several Nevada TV channels, including Fox and ABC, condemning illegal voter suppression tactics targeting Hispanic voters.
In the past weeks, I’ve been discussing the use of new tools in this election cycle. There can no longer be any doubt that these new tools are playing an increasingly important role in elections; for example, a fascinating new article by Sarah Lai Stirland in Wired magazine explores the definitive success of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s organizing operation (the model for which was engineered by two Harvard professors), and its integration with Obama’s social networking site, my.BarackObama.com. From the article:
…Obama is the first to successfully integrate technology with a revamped model of political organization that stresses volunteer participation and feedback on a massive scale, erecting a vast, intricate machine set to fuel an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive in the final days before Tuesday's election.
"I think what was recovered in this campaign is the sense of what leadership is, and what the role of the technology is, so that you get the best out of both," says Marshall Ganz, a public policy lecturer at Harvard who designed the field-organizer and volunteer training system used by the Obama campaign. "The Dean campaign understood how to use the internet for the fund-raising, but not for the organizing."
"We've really poured a lot of energy and thought into making this focused on real-world organizing activity," says Chris Hughes, the 24-year-old co-founder of Facebook, who left that company last year to help Obama with his online organizational efforts.
Obama’s advanced, tech-savvy new organizing system has undoubtedly helped him in this election cycle (as Simon explained in another great Wired article a few months back); he used this new model in the primaries in Iowa and South Carolina, which he won, while sticking with a more traditional strategy in New Hampshire, which he lost. Obama's model works because it brings people together, makes them a part of a team, and gives them easy ways that they can translate their inspiration and enthusiasm into concrete action.
But with the election coming to a close in just a few short days, it is worth it for us to take a step back and recall just why all of this matters in the first place. These developments aren’t exciting because of their novelty, or because of our innate love of all things shiny and new. They aren't exciting solely in the context of electing a particular candidate. They are exciting, or they should be exciting, because technology is making citizens not just better informed but also more involved, allowing them to participate more directly and more effectively in government, which makes our nation itself more authentically democratic.
As Simon and Joe Trippi argued at our excellent event here earlier this week (watch the C-SPAN footage here), this trend cannot and must not end with the election. To be successful, the next president must be someone who embraces the new era of politics. Senator Obama in particular stresses ownership and involvement, and often reminds us that change comes from the bottom up. We will be watching to see if, should he win the presidency, his actions match his rhetoric.
With the launch of new sites like BigDialogue and WhiteHouse2.org, the tools are there waiting to be picked up. These sites aim to give people a more direct voice in governance. In the words of BigDialogue’s founder David Colarusso, “the way we interact with Government is about to change, and the shape of that change is up to us. The Internet is not just a way to raise money or mobilize supporters. It's a way to shrink the distance between people and politicians. For the first time in history, it's possible for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of people to have a single conversation.”
I highly encourage everyone to visit both of these sites and try them out. These are some of the most exciting new tools that I’ve seen in a long time; the question is, will our next president embrace them, or ignore them?
<shameless plug> NDN has been at the forefront of advocating for an increased use of social networking sites in politics; to learn more about the myriad possibilities of social networks, read our New Politics Institute's New Tools paper, "Leverage Social Networks." </shameless plug>
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama maintains his focus on the economy in two new TV spots, "Rearview Mirror" and "Something." Personally, after last night's extremely well-produced 30-minute spot, I find these ads a little underwhelming, but take a look and decide for yourself:
Tonight, in a nearly unprecedented move, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is running a 30-minute ad on CBS, NBC, MSNBC, Fox, BET, TV One and Univision. The ad, which will air tonight at 8 p.m. ET, should help make Obama's "closing argument" to voters. The ad buy is estimated to have cost between three and five million dollars, and has been the subject of wide-spread speculation and commentary.
Obama will also appear tonight on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. If Obama is smart (and he sure seems to be), he will realize that the majority of Daily Show viewers, who tend to be younger, better-educated and better-informed than the general population, already support him. Watch for him to use this opportunity to urge people to actually come out and vote on election day.
It promises to be an interesting night of television, so be sure to tune in!
There's always a lot happening here at NDN, so in case you missed anything, here's what we've been up to in the last week:
A Stimulus for the Long Run - Post-election, Congress will head back to Washington to consider another stimulus package. NDN Globalization Initiative Chair Dr. Robert Shapiro and Green Project Director Michael Moynihan have been weighing in on the need to create a package that jumpstarts the economy now and helps ensure future prosperity by working to create a low-carbon economy. In a recent essay, Shapiro argued for a “Stimulus for the Long Run” that invests in clean infrastructure, worker training, and technology. In a separate memo, Moynihan also made the case for Accelerating the Development of a 21st Century Economy: Investing in Clean Infrastructure. The bottom line: Congress has a limited amount of money to spend on a stimulus.
Election Forum with Joe Trippi and Simon Rosenberg - Yesterday, NDN hosted a special lunchtime Election Forum with NDN President Simon Rosenberg and Internet pioneer, top political strategist and New Politics Institute fellow Joe Trippi. Joe and Simon looked at this remarkable election cycle and also beyond November 4 to the next Administration. For more information and photos from the event, please click here.
NDN Countdown to Election 2008 - With less than a week to go before Election Day, the NDN team continued to weigh in on issues ranging from swinging poll numbers to donation-fueled shopping sprees to early voting. With the media reporting U.S. Sen. Barack Obama with anywhere from a double-digit to a single-digit lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain, Simon asked, "Is McCain Playing to Win?"
Simon's essay echoes what he and the NDN team have been saying for several weeks: we may see an uptick in McCain's numbers as the race enters the final days, but that's because the Arizona senator is gaining ground he already should have held. It's not a sign of McCain's strength; rather, it's a sign of his weakness and disappointing campaign that many in the GOP base are only now coming home. For more on the final days of the campaign, check out this report from yesterday's Newsday, which quotes Simon.
Simon also predicted that increasingly, we will start to hear quiet talk of realignment, blowout, rout, coattails and a new political era. If the trends continue, we are headed toward a true blowout with the top of the Democratic ticket getting its highest vote share since 1964, Democrats having more ideological control of Washington since the mid 1960s and Democrats having the makings of a new very 21st century majority coalition they could ride for the next 30-40 years of politics.
And the other big news last week? What about Gov. Sarah Palin slapping her hockey Mom image right out of the rink by spending $150,000 on designer clothes and make up? Chalk it up the Republicans’ being completely out of touch with the economic struggles of everyday people. Melissa also took a look at an interview Palin did with James Dobson, the immensley popular leader of “Focus on the Family.” While Palin has apologized for some of her more divisive rhetoric as of late, she played to Dobson’s audience in this interview, even seeming to contradict McCain's more moderate stances on several issues, including stem cell research, choice and gay marriage. Is Palin thinking conservative base in 2012?
Back to the here-and-now, Andres Ramirez, Vice President of Hispanic Programs, spent the week focusing on the subject of early voting. With one in three registered voters expected to cast their ballots before November 4, Andres wrote about the record-breaking numbers of early voters, how many of those voters are experiencing very long waits to vote and efforts to prevent people from voting or purge newly registered voters from the rolls.
Keep People in Their Homes - For more than a month, NDN has been arguing that any government response to the financial crisis must include a central provision to keep people in their homes. Momentum to do just that grew last week, as FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair testified before Congress and presented a proposal to keep people in their homes, and the New York Times editorialized on the issue. The Washington Post reported that Bair’s proposal received a warm reception from lawmakers, a welcome sign that the federal government will soon provide necessary leadership in this effort. For more on NDN’s Keep People in Their Homes effort, click here.
Other NDN Thinking - There are no lack of victims from the meltdown of the financial markets and the oncoming economic recession. Will moving toward a low-carbon future, a top priority for NDN, be one of them? Our answer is “no.” Jake Berliner argued that Energy Reform Can Be an Economic Boon. Green Project Director Moynihan further buttressed Jake’s arguments in his essay, Climate Change: Next Steps in a Troubled Economy. Zuraya Tapia-Alfaro looked at Barack Obama’s latest Spanish-language ad about restoring the “American Dream,” following other Spanish-language TV and radio ads on education, health care, taxes, and more. She also wrote about immigration in the presidential race and how the next president can discuss immigration reform using an economic narrative during this time of economic crisis.
New Tools Feature: Go Mobile - In last week's New Tools Feature, TXT 2 GOTV, I highlighted a new study that shows the great bang-for-the-buck efficacy of text-based get-out-the-vote campaigns, which, on average, cost only $1.56 per vote. To learn more about using SMS messaging effectively, be sure to read our New Politics Institute's New Tools paper, Go Mobile Now. While texting has already had a real, measurable effect in this election cycle, and will be critical to getting out key voting blocs next Tuesday, the true potential of mobile-powered politics has yet to be tapped.
NDN Breaking Through - The new VIBEMagazine hit shelves last week. For the first time in its 15-year history, VIBE endorsed a candidate this month. Simon is quoted in the cover story, "The Tipping Point," about race in American politics and the historic implications of the rise of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.
Simon also provided analysis of the election in the Independent, Reuters (and subsequently on Michael Moore's blog), and in two featured posts on the Huffington Post (here and here). His election commentary also aired on radio stations across the country, and he was featured on WAMU's "Power Breakfast": you can listen to the segment here:
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has a new TV ad out today, entitled "His Choice." The ad manages to combine two of U.S. Sen. John McCain's greatest perceived weaknesses in opinion polling of voters, the economy and Gov. Sarah Palin. It's quite good, and even a little cheeky. Check it out:
Both presidential candidates spent this past weekend courting voters in the Southwest. That the candidates are spending these precious last days before the election in this region demonstrates its increasing importance on the emerging 21st century electoral map. Simon is quoted in two new articles on the importance of the southwest and the Latino vote. In Bloomberg, Simon points out that Hispanics will account for more than 40% of the vote in New Mexico. He was also quoted in an article in the San Francisco Chronicle:
Simon Rosenberg, who heads NDN, a moderate Washington, D.C.-based Democratic advocacy group, said the shift reflects how "the Republican brand with Latinos has been severely degraded" by President Bush's leadership on the economy and the war. "And John McCain has not been able to distance himself from it."
But, he added, Democrats carefully laid the groundwork for gains when party leaders like Sen. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader from Nevada, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker from San Francisco, "added Nevada to the early caucus states and put their national convention in Colorado."
"In 2004, John Kerry didn't know the Southwest existed on the map," he said. "They spent no time and no money there."
Speaking of the importance of the Latino vote in this year's election: a new documentary, entitled "Latinos '08," will air on DC-area public television (WETA) tonight at 10 p.m. ET (check your local listings). The film was made by award-winning Los Angeles filmaker Phillip Rodriguez, whom we collaborated with in the making of his latest work.
The Washington Post gave the documentary a very positive review, saying that,
"Director Phillip Rodriguez knows his way around this territory of ironies and pieties layered upon an undeniably real demographic bedrock."
According to Rodriguez, the program explores the increasing presence of Latinos on the American political scene through the wider lens of ethnic politics across U.S. history. “This is just the latest chapter of the American immigrant assimilation story,” Henry Cisneros points out in the film. Cisneros, the former mayor of San Antonio and Clinton Administration cabinet member, is joined in the documentary by a lineup of astute political commentators and scholars.
In addition to Cisneros, the documentary also features Federico Pena, National Co-Chair, Obama Campaign, and Mickey Ibarra, Mickey Ibarra & Associates, all members of NDN's Hispanic Advisory Board. You can also catch NDN President Simon Rosenberg in the documentary.
To learn more about NDN's work in analyzing Hispanic voting and demographic trends, please read our report, Hispanics Rising II and look at our recent polls on the issue of immigration reform in key battleground states.
We hope you'll tune in tonight or if you can't, program your TiVo.
Some Rights Reserved 2008 - Present, NDN. 
According to Rodriguez, the program explores the increasing presence of Latinos on the American political scene through the wider lens of ethnic politics across U.S. history. “This is just the latest chapter of the American immigrant assimilation story,” Henry Cisneros points out in the film. Cisneros, the former mayor of San Antonio and Clinton Administration cabinet member, is joined in the documentary by a lineup of astute political commentators and scholars.
