Today, President-elect Obama delivered the first weekly presidential YouTube address in history. Watch it here:
This is an historic moment in American politics. In the past weeks at NDN, we have been speculating about how Obama might use the internet to govern, and one of the things we envisioned was in fact a weekly YouTube address. To understand why we think this is such an important moment in the history of American politics, check out some recent articles on the topic here in my latest New Tools Feature, or watch Simon's recent video blog below:
In his first address, President-elect Obama discusses his plan for getting the economy back on track. His plan includes a stimulus package focusing on long-term investment, which he says will be the first thing he does in office if Congress fails to pass such legislation before then. To see what such a plan might look like, read Simon and Rob's recent essay, A Stimulus for the Long Run, or Michael's essay, Accelerating the Development of a 21st Century Economy: Investing in Clean Infrastructure.
Since my last roundup on Tuesday, we've been in several stories that have really picked up and advanced NDN's narrative. Simon was in a great Associated Press video about how Obama will use the internet to govern, in which he predicted that the weekly radio address would also be broadcast on YouTube. His analysis of the subject was also featured in RCR Wireless, and in a whole host of other pieces over the past several weeks. From the RCR article:
New Democratic Network President Simon Rosenberg offered a different view in foreseeing that Obama’s tech innovations have paved the way for “a completely different relationship between the President and the public.” Presidential “Fireside Chats” by radio initiated during the 1930s Depression will be out in this scenario. They would be supplanted by an entire array of interactive and citizen-empowering communications tools already tested during the campaign that convinced 55+ million voters to be Obama supporters. Pipedream or prediction? We’ll all soon see.
And indeed, with Obama instituting a weekly YouTube address this weekend, we are seeing sooner than most expected.
Simon was also in a great story in Salon, entitled "A Permanent Democratic Majority?", about the role of Hispanics in creating a lasting progressive majority coalition. From the article:
...None of this means that Democrats can take the Hispanic vote for granted. In fact, the party's success this year comes in large part because it began a concerted effort focusing on Hispanics. Simon Rosenberg, the president of the New Democrat Network, which has been studying the changing electorate and especially the impact of the Hispanic vote, says, "Increased turnout happened because Democrats finally woke up to this Hispanic opportunity ... It's really only in the last few years that Democrats woke up to this new reality. If you're a Hispanic voter, particularly in the Southwest or the West, the Democratic Party sort of woke up and started to speak to you."
Simon was also quoted in Mathaba on how Millennials and Hispanics have permanently changed American politics. NDN Fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais were quoted in great article in Forbes, entitled "Young Voters Turn America Left." And Rob was quoted in the Kansas City Star, and had a featured guest blog in the Houston Chronicle.
NDN's work has been featured in many narrative-shaping stories over the past week and a half. If you haven't gotten a chance to check them out yet, you can do so here, here, here, and here.
In a previous New Tools feature, I discussed the launch of Web sites like WhiteHouse2.org, and wondered whether an Obama administration would be open to using tools like this to amplify the public's voice and increase its role in governing.
That very much remains to be seen, but President-Elect Obama's background in community organizing, his groundbreaking use of the Internet during the campaign, and the launch of his new site, change.gov, seem to bode well for the possibility of a more open-source style presidency (although I hope change.gov evolves to become much more interactive and participatory than it is at the moment). Of course, Obama was elected to lead, and in order to be effective leader he will ultimately have to make his own judgments and decisions. But the more voices and opinions he hears in the course of his deliberations, the better.
If he chooses to do so, Obama can certainly use technology to give people a greater voice in government. But he can also use it to spread his message and to build support for his initiatives. Simon predicts that Obama will do with the Internet what FDR did with radio and what JFK did for television, using the web to reach people in new ways. He envisions a weekly YouTube address that could be instantly viewed by millions of people around the country and the world. This kind of direct reach would be an incredibly powerful tool in advancing the administration's agenda.
In the past few weeks, we at NDN have talked a lot about the ways an Obama administration is likely to use technology to govern: in addition to the aforementioned New Tools post, Simon and Joe Trippi discussed this at our NDN election forum, and Simon did a great video blog about it, entitled "Obama to Reinvent the Presidency."
Friday morning UPDATE: Jose Antonio Vargas of the Washington Postreports this morning that
Today, President-elect Obama will record the weekly Democratic address not just on radio but also on video -- a first. The address, typically four minutes long, will be turned into a YouTube video and posted on Obama's transition site, Change.gov, once the radio address is made public on Saturday morning."
It has been a remarkable week for NDN in the media; this is my fourth news round up in eight days (see the others here, here, and here).
First off, Simon's election analysis appeared in a major article in BBC News today, which began like this:
Democratic strategist, Simon Rosenberg, director of the New Democrat Network, is one of those who argues that the pattern of the last four decades has been broken.
Since the the 1960s, when the Democrats passed civil rights legislation, the southern states have mostly voted Republican in presidential elections.
This has given them an in-built advantage, and only two Democrats, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (both southerners), have won the White House in the last 40 years.
Now Mr Rosenberg argues the Democrats have created a new paradigm that means they could dominate politics for a generation.
He gives three reasons:
• Demographics: The Democrats are appealing to the fastest-growing groups in the electorate
• Technology: The Democrats have mastered the new digital technologies, enabling them to fundraise and mobilise their supporters more effectively than their opponents
• Issues: The Democrats are better equipped to deal with the new issues, like global warming, immigration, and the global financial crisis, which go beyond traditional left and right divisions
He also argues that the Republican brand has been irrevocably damaged.
At the same time, he recognises that the main issue for many voters in this election was an old-fashioned one - falling living standards - and this will represent a major challenge for President Obama.
Simon is also quoted extensively throughout the body of this excellent article, which lays out many of NDN's main arguments, so be sure to check it out.
Obama is widely expected by the inside-the-Beltway community to use the web to redefine the relationship between the President and his constituents, just as he did so with voters during the 2008 campaign when he often used tech tools like YouTube and text messaging to communicate directly with voters, bypassing the media.
"I think you're going to see this new model used throughout his presidency that Obama's pioneered that allows him to reach many more people in a much more meaningful way," says Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of the non-profit think-tank NDN in a recent interview. "Just like the advent of radio changed the relationship between those that govern and their voters, President (elect) Obama will start to re-invent the relationship of American citizens to their president using the new and modern internet-based tools."
This could take shape in the form of Saturday YouTube addresses instead of or in addition to the President's weekly Saturday radio address, Rosenberg speculated. The point is that Obama is expected to use the tools to go "over the heads" of the media to communicate and to mobilize voters.
Simon was also quoted in several more stories about the Hispanic vote, appearing in the Los Angeles Times, the Las Vegas Sun, the Latino Journal, and Burnt Orange Report. Tom Brokaw also quoted Simon in an interview with U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez on "Meet the Press," and Markos (Kos) from DailyKos linked to Simon's blog post about the interview.
Finally, Andres appeared in the Las Vegas Sun discussing Latino turnout, and Rob discussed Obama's possible economic policies in the Chicago Tribune and Ireland's Independent.
There's always a lot happening here at NDN, so in case you missed anything, here's what we've been up to in the last week:
The Dawn of a New Political Era - The 2008 elections have brought about the dawn of a new political era, one characterized by new communications tools and new voters, a new majority coalition and a new electoral map, new global and domestic governing challenges, a new ascendant political party, the Democrats, and the emergence of one of the most remarkable political figures in American history, President-elect Barack Obama. This new political era is the first such era of the 21st century, and it has little resemblance to the political eras that have come before.
Prior to the historic November 4 election, NDN released the best of its political and election analysis, memos and essays since the 2006 midterm elections. After the election was called for Obama, NDN was ready to go with important and detailed analysis of the impact of the Hispanic vote and the Millennial vote on the election; Obama, race and the end of the southern strategy; and much more.
NDN's analysis broke through in the major media even before the election, when Atlanic Media and National Journal's Ron Brownstein quoted Simon on an interview he did with MSNBC's David Gregory. Post-election, Brownstein wrote an amazing overview on the changes in the American electorate; NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs had a home-run on National Public Radio on the importance of the Latino vote; our brand new NDN Fellows, Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, authors of the best-selling Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, & The Future of American Politics, were in high demand and were featured prominently in this smart piece in yesterday's San Jose Mercury News; both Andres and Morely and Mike showed up in this national Associated Press piece; and Simon showed up in fantastic USA Today and Los Angeles Times reports on the Latino vote and the possibility of a new Democratic coalition that might see a run for the next 20 to 30 years. Finally, yesterday, "Meet the Press" host Tom Brokaw cited Simon's quote from Jill Lawrence in her same USA Today article as he questioned U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) about how the GOP would ever bring Hispanics back into the Republican fold.
For more post-election NDN press coverage from the last week, click here and here; for pre-election coverage, click here.
Simon Wins The Hill's Election Prediction Contest - Simon unpacked his crystal ball for the election, winningThe Hill's Election Prediction contest. Simon beat out the likes of Joe Scarborough, Lanny Davis, Armstrong Williams and Grover Norquist to claim first prize. From the article:
NDN’s Simon Rosenberg triumphed in The Hill’s 2008 election prediction contest, having said earlier this week that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would attract 353 electoral votes.
At press time, Obama had 349 electoral votes, with the winner in Missouri and North Carolina still undetermined. Rosenberg predicted Obama would win the popular vote 53-46. Obama is leading, 52-46.
Rosenberg accurately forecast that Senate Democrats would fall short of 60 seats and would pick up 20 in the House. Some House races have not been called, but Democrats are expected to bolster their majority by about 20 seats.
Making the Economy a Top Priority - As President-elect Obama prepares to appoint his economic team, his first priority is to set priorities. Obama took a step toward that during his first post-election news conference Friday, making it clear his top priority is to pass a stimulus package. As he said, “I want to see a stimulus package sooner rather than later. If it does not get done in the lame-duck session, it will be the first thing I get done as president of the United States.” NDN has been advocating for a stimulus package for the long run, one that works to create a 21st century economy through investing in clean infrastructure and innovation. With more bad news on jobs, this package must get passed quickly. NDN Globalization Initiative Chair Dr. Robert Shapiro was quoted on Obama's economic expectations in a major article yesterday in the Chicago Tribune. For more of NDN’s economic analysis, visit the NDN blog.
NDN to hold Tuesday, November 18 Event with U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee on Investing in Clean Infrastructure - To advance discussion on clean infrastructure and clean technologies, NDN’s Green Project will host a Tuesday, November 18, event on Capitol Hill with Congressman Jay Inslee, a leader on energy and electrical grid issues. Representative Inslee will be joined by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Commissioner Jon Wellinghoff, as well as Dan Reicher, Google.org’s Director for Climate Change and Energy Initiatives, and Kurt Yeager, the Executive Director of the Galvin Electricity Institute. The event will be held from 12 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. in Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2322. Please click here to RSVP.
Obama to Reinvent the Presidency - In an article in Wired last week, Simon discussed how technology helped to propel President-elect Obama to the White House. But as Simon and Joe Trippi predicted in our election forum on October 28, and as I speculated in last week’s New Tools Feature, Obama’s pioneering use of technology will not come to a halt now that the election has ended. In fact, Simon argued in last week's National Journal’s Daily Tech Dose that:
“With Obama in the White House, "we're going to see something more radical and innovative than what they did on the campaign because more people are going to be paying attention now," ...noting that Obama's ability to use whitehouse.gov to ask Americans to "help him solve the problems of our day" could be revolutionary. Rosenberg said technology will be "central to the way he tries to govern" because innovative platforms are "now so engrained in their brand." The progressive pundit said he expects to see "massive experimentation" with Web efforts to get public input and also rally netroots to push the administration's agenda on Capitol Hill.
"The most interesting thing to watch will be what do they and how do they reinvent the way a president speaks to the American people," said Simon Rosenberg of the liberal think tank NDN and a veteran of the Clinton White House.
"There's no doubt this is going to be more of a YouTube presidency than a fireside chat presidency," he said. "President Obama will be reinventing the relationship between the president and the American people using these new tools."
Over the past weeks, NDN has been looking at the ways that the Obama campaign used technology to help them win. But we've also been thinking about the ways that an Obama administration is likely to use technology to govern: Simon and Joe trippi discussed this at our Election Forum last week, Simon is quoted on this issue in the Washington Times and the National Journal's Tech Daily Dose this week, and I pondered these questions in my New Tools Feature last week. Here are some of Simon's thoughts about the revolution that is about to take place in political communication and the way government interacts with its constituents:
On Wednesday, I posted some of the influential election stories that featured NDN - if you haven't seen these, be sure to check them out, there are some really exellent pieces by some of the best journalists in the country. Since Wednesday, in addition to Simon's winning The Hill's election prediction contest, NDN has appeared in another big round of press:
First, Simon was quoted in a must-read piece by Ron Brownstein in the National Journal:
Barack Obama on Tuesday won the most decisive Democratic presidential victory in a generation largely by tapping into growing elements of American society: young people, Hispanics and other minorities, and white upper-middle-class professionals. That coalition of the ascendant—combined with unprecedented margins among African-Americans—powered Obama to a commanding victory over Republican John McCain, even though Obama achieved only modest and intermittent gains with the working-class white voters who provided the foundation of the Democratic coalition from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election in 1932 to Humphrey’s defeat 36 years later.
“Obama is reimagining a Democratic coalition for the 21st century,” says Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic group that studies electoral trend and tactics. “Democrats [are] … surging with all the ascending and growing parts of the electorate. He is building a coalition that Democrats could ride for 30 or 40 years, the way they rode the FDR coalition of the 1930s.”
Simon was also quoted in USA Todayabout about the changing demography of America and its significance for the future of politics:
Dramatic rises in Hispanic participation, support or both put Obama over the top in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. The trends were similar in Arizona and Texas, though the two states went for Republican John McCain. The group also made its presence felt in Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina.
"If the Republicans don't make their peace with Hispanic voters, they're not going to win presidential elections anymore. The math just isn't there," says Simon Rosenberg, head of the NDN, a Democratic group that studies Hispanic voters.
Simon also weighed in on "Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy" in a featured post on Huffington Post which was also picked up by OpenLeft.
In addition to the new demographics, Simon also talked about the use of new technology and media. He spoke to both how Obama used technology to win, and how he will use it to govern. From a piece in the Washington Times:
The campaign won't say whether the BarackTV and live-streamed events will continue after the inauguration, but all signs point to a revolutionized way of White House communication with America and the world.
"The most interesting thing to watch will be what do they and how do they reinvent the way a president speaks to the American people," said Simon Rosenberg of the liberal think tank NDN and a veteran of the Clinton White House.
"There's no doubt this is going to be more of a YouTube presidency than a fireside chat presidency," he said. "President Obama will be reinventing the relationship between the president and the American people using these new tools."
In terms of general election analysis, Simon talked about the likely governing philosophy of an Obama administration in the San Francisco Chronicle and the Washington Times.
New NDN Fellows Michael Hais and Morley Winograd were featured in the Post-Bulletin about the Millennial vote. Michael had an essay in Grist about the opportunities for the new administration to invest in clean infrastructure and clean energy. Finally, Rob talks about the economic challenges facing the new administration in the AP, Accountancy Age, and the Irish Left Review.
As NDN Fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais demonstrated yesterday, the Millennial Generation played a key role in this election, voting in higher numbers than in any recent election and in a more unified manner than any other age group - 66% of Millennials supported President-Elect Obama, compared to only 32% who supported U.S. Sen. John McCain. Millennials constituted a greater percentage of the vote than those 65 and over. Without the overwhelming support of Millennials, Obama's victory margin would have been 1.5% instead of 6% nationally, and there might have been a lot more nail-biting on Tuesday night.
We're still waiting for the final numbers on the youth vote to come in, but a new CIRCLE report projects that youth turnout increased between 1 and 6 percentage points this year - an increase that translates into several million new voters. What was responsible for this increase?
One obvious answer is the candidate himself; Obama connected with young voters like no other political figure in recent memory. He gave them something to get excited about and ways to get involved. Shirts sporting his visage flew off the shelves at Urban Outfitters. He is, simply put, cool.
Others might point to the fact that his campaign organized a superlative ground game and created a fundraising juggernaut. Still others might note that the Obama campaign demonstrated a mastery of technology and deployed it on a scale never before seen in American politics - this is a point that Sarah Lai Stirland makes in Wired this week, and something I and others at NDN have talked about a lot.
The Obama campaign's message, organization, and use of new tools were all game-changers. But I believe one of the biggest boosts in the youth turnout may actually have had nothing to do with Obama himself. On the day before the election, I wrote about the Facebook Election Rally, which allowed users to select automated status message updates urging friends to get out the vote, including a link to join the rally themselves and the option to invite other friends manually. By the end of the rally, nearly two million Facebook users donated their status messages for GOTV purposes. Of those users, 70% put up messages encouraging friends to get out the vote for Obama, 21% put up messages for McCain, and 7% put up messages saying to simply "get out the vote."
Then, on election day, Facebook essentially became one giant GOTV tool. The login page said "VOTE" in giant letters, and at the top of the home page was a button that said "I voted," next to a counter of Facebook users who had voted so far. When I checked at around 10 PM, the counter had reached nearly five million.
From a sociological perspective, the combined effect was very powerful. Anyone who logged into Facebook near or on election day was inundated not only with reminders to get involved, but also bombarded with reminders that their friends were voting. I don't think this has ever happened before, and seems much more powerful than any "Vote or Die"-style MTV ad could be - seeing so many friends involved has a real impact, particularly on youth. Facebook is helping to create a culture of civic participation among Millennials, and that participation quickly becomes habit. And if it continues, this could have an even greater impact in the next few elections, since less than half of Millennials were eligible to vote in this election. If Millennials gave Obama between 4 and 5 points nationally in this election... well, you do the math.
In the past 24 hours, NDN has helped to shape the post-election narrative. Here are some of the highlights from the recent election analysis:
Simon was featured in a fantastic piece by Thomas Edsall in the Huffington Post:
There is a substantial body of thought among Democrats, however, that Obama's victory accurately reflects transformations in the demographic and attitudinal characteristics of voters. Because these transformations are rooted in the voters themselves, and not in political strategies, they are likely, from this perspective, to be enduring. One of the strongest proponents of this approach is Simon Rosenberg, head of the New Democrat Network.
"When I was born in 1963 the country was almost 89 percent white, 10.5 percent African-American and less than 1 percent other. The racial construct of America was, and had been for over hundreds of years, a white-black, majority-minority construct, and for most of our history had been a pernicious and exploitive one," Rosenberg writes. "Today America is 66 percent white and 33 percent 'minority'.'' According to Rosenberg's assessment, Republican wedge issues will no longer work. "This strategy - welfare queens, Willie Horton, Reagan Democrats, tough on crime, an aggressive redistricting approach in 1990" will prove ineffective in "the new demographic realities of America."
Simon also had a great quote in McClatchy, which appeared in a plethora of papers across the country, that touched on similar themes:
"The Republican playbook that worked for them for a generation, that's become an anachronism," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network. "There's a new voting population, new coalitions, new issues, new media. The Republicans have been fighting the future. That is one of the reasons why they are in trouble. They've gotten on the wrong side of history."
He also weighed in in Wired about Obama's thoroughly modern candidacy:
"He's run a campaign where he's used very modern tools, spoke to a new coalition, talked about new issues, and along the way, he's reinvented the way campaigns are run," says Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of the nonprofit think-tank NDN, and a veteran of Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign. "Compared to our 1992 campaign, this is like a multi-national corporation versus a non-profit."
Simon wasn't the only member of the the NDN team in the mix. New NDN Fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais had an excellent quote in this MSNBC article about the importance of the youth vote:
Through a steady stream of texts and Twitters, experts agree Obama has managed to excite young voters by meeting them where they live — online.
“This is a group of people who are constantly checking in with everybody else in their circle to make a decision,” says Morley Winograd, the co-author of “Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics” and a former adviser to Vice President Al Gore. He defines Millennials as ages 18 to 26.
“This is a generation that doesn't tend to think about asking experts for opinion," Winograd says. "They tend to ask each other, and then that becomes the truth.”
Winograd says that means no decision is made without dozens of e-mails, texts or Facebook messages to check whether an idea works for the whole group — anything from “Where should we hang out tonight?” to “Who should we vote for?” — which could explain why Millennials so firmly latched onto Obama’s message of unity, he says.
“They are naturally inclined to be unified,” explains Michael D. Hais, who co-wrote “Millennial Makeover” with Winograd. “It’s the way they were reared; they were reared to believe that everyone has a role to play, everybody is the same and everybody should look for group-oriented solutions.”
Just a few years ago, I would not have thought this day was possible.
I remember election day in 2004 as one of the worst worst of my life; after watching Bush and his cronies destroy everything they touched for four years, I didn't understand how anyone could vote for him, let alone the majority of the country. It made no sense. It is no exaggeration to say that that day nearly destroyed my faith in our democracy, and as the administration continued to methodically strip away rights and regulations and transform the Judicial branch into an appendage of the Executive, I basically assumed that it was game over, and gave up.
The Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor describes what I was feeling as political fragmentation: "the individual citizen is left alone in the face of the vast bureaucratic state and feels, correctly, powerless. This demotivates the citizen even further, and the vicious circle of soft despotism is joined." I felt that there was nothing I could do to change anything, and so I stopped trying.
But the interesting thing about this feedback loop, and the thing that Senator Obama helped me realize, is that as Taylor says, "there is a potential vicious circle here, but we can see how it could also be a virtuous circle. Successful common action can bring a sense of empowerment and also strengthen identification with the political community." Simon has written about Barack Obama's virtuous cycle of participation, and I can personally attest to the truth of that analysis. And I know that I'm not the only one who feels this way; watching the reactions that others have had to Obama's candidacy has been hugely inspiring in itself.
I don't agree with Senator Obama about everything, and I don't think he will single-handedly save American politics. I definitely have no illusions about the enormity of the challenges that still lie ahead on the path of progress. But even so, the simple fact that he is likely to be the next President of the United States makes me believe that real change is at least possible.
And if things don't go well tonight, hey, there's always Costa Rica.