NDN Blog

Analysis: Biden Can Still Improve Among Young Voters, And There Is Reason To Believe He Will

This is the fifth piece in NDN's weekly Thursday polling round-up. You can find previous weeks' pieces here.

It is our view, as we've written in past weeks, that the 2020 election environment remains remarkably similar to that of 2018, when Democrats won the popular vote by 8.6 percentage points and took back the House. As of this morning, Trump has a -9.7 net approval rating, Dems lead the generic congressional ballot by 7.9 points, and Biden leads Trump head-to-head by 5.1 points - all numbers that point towards a stable advantage for the Democrats as we head into the summer.

In one area, however, Biden is underperforming Democrats' strength in 2018 - among younger voters. In 2018, Democrats won voters under 45 by 25 points (the highest margin among this demographic since at least 1972) and won voters under 30 by 35 points (also the highest margin among this group since at least 1972). While Biden is still clearly winning young voters against Trump, his margins are smaller than this 2018 advantage. In four high quality polls released in May (Monmouth, QuinnipiacYouGov, and CNN), Biden is winning young voters (under 35s for Monmouth, Quinnipiac, and CNN; under 30s for YouGov) by 27, 19, 13, and 8 points. There is clearly much uncertainty in the data about exactly how far young people currently lean towards Biden, but each poll finds their support smaller than the +35 margin for Dems in 2018, and the average of the four polls is just +17. 

The question, then, of whether Biden can win over young voters who supported Dems in 2018 but currently don't support him is a critical one for 2020. In the 2016 presidential election, people under 30 made up 19% of all voters. Assuming that number is relatively steady in 2020, moving Biden's margin among under 30s from his current +17 (average of the four May polls) to the 2018 Dem margin of +35 would net Biden 3.4 points in the popular vote, and even moving under 30s just half of that distance (from +17 to +26) would get him an additional 1.7 points. Considering Biden's current lead of 5-6 points in the head-to-head polling against Trump, these additional votes could put the election away for Biden. 

What is the likelihood that young people do make this move to Biden by November 2020 then? While these types of predictions clearly have great uncertainty, it is our view that there is good reason to believe they will. First, young people strongly dislike Trump, and have done so consistently for several years (i.e. they never supported him in anything close to large numbers). According to Civiqs national polling which has tracked Trump's daily approval since 2017, voters under 35 currently have a net -34 approval rating of the President and the highest that approval rating has ever been since January 2017 is just -31. Even if young voters don't particularly like Biden (or prefer Sanders to Biden), we think it is likely that they will vote for him anyways as a vote against Trump. 

Second, young people voted by a margin of +35 for Democrats in 2018, even though the majority of Democratic candidates (especially in the battleground districts) were ideologically closer to Biden than to Sanders. Of the 59 freshman Democrats elected to the House in 2018, 40 joined the moderate New Democrat Coalition. Again, it seems likely that young people here were strongly motivated to vote by their opposition to Trump, even if they didn't fully agree with their Democratic candidate.

And finally, there is reason to believe that the recent support of Bernie Sanders (who young people strongly supported over Biden in the Democratic primary) for Biden and close cooperation between the two (for example, the recent unveiling of joint policy groups between Biden and Sanders) will cause pro-Sanders young people to become more favorable towards Biden. In 2016, Sanders' voters initially had quite unfavorable views of Clinton when Sanders dropped out but those views became much more favorable by November 2016, and this is even likelier to happen now given that Sanders' voters in 2020 are much more favorable towards Biden than they were towards Clinton in 2016. 

As always, below you can find a detailed aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands.

Links: 1234567891011121314151617

NDN's Weekly Polling Round-Up

As we enter the 2020 general election campaign in earnest this summer, NDN will be providing our latest thoughts on the structure of the race and how we believe the election will unfold. Each Thursday, we will focus on a new subject area important to the election, and will update our aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands. 

5 Months Out, Ds See Opportunity, Rs Trouble- Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 6/4/20- As we’ve written in our recent 2020 Polling Roundups, NDN has never been a subscriber to the Trump has magical powers school of political analysis.  Without the help of Jill Stein, Russia, and the Comey Letter, Clinton would have likely beaten Trump by 5-8 points in 2016.  

Trump’s Plummeting Poll Numbers Clearly Threatening McConnell’s Majority Now - Simon Rosenberg, NDN, 5/28/20 - Conventional wisdom has not yet come to terms with how bad recent polling has been for Trump and Senate Republicans. 

Biden Can Still Improve Among Young Voters, And There Is Reason To Belief He Will - Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/21/20 - In one area, Biden is underperforming Democrats' strength in 2018 - among younger voters. However, it is our view that there is good reason to believe that these voters will move to a large extent to Biden by November 2020.

The Public Doesn't Trust Or Support Trump's Coronavirus Response - Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/14/20 - It is clear that the public doesn't support Trump's response to this crisis, doesn't trust him to tell the truth about it, and overwhelmingly opposes his new re-opening strategy.

Control Of The Senate Is Now A Toss-Up, With Democrats Perhaps Slightly Favored - Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/7/20 - A major new development in the past month has been a significant tightening of the race for the Senate majority, to the point where today Democrats probably are very slight favorites to win at least 50 seats.

The 2020 Election Is Shaping Up To Be A Lot More Like 2018 Than 2016 - Chris Taylor, NDN, 4/30/20 - NDN's central belief surrounding the 2020 election is that the race currently resembles the Democrats' significant victory in the 2018 midterms far more than it does Trump's win in 2016.

Democrats Begin The 2020 Election Where They Left Off In 2018 - Chris Taylor, NDN, 4/23/20 - It is our belief that the central theme of the 2020 election will be continuity with the 2018 midterms that saw Democrats win the House by a historic 8.6 percentage point margin in the popular vote. As a result, Trump has a lot of work to do if he wants to win a second term.

NDN Events: Rep. Eshoo, 2020 Poll Roundup, With Dems Things Get Better

We are happy to invite you to the following NDN events, all conducted via Zoom. Times are all Eastern Daylight Time.

Wed, June 10th, 2pm - "With Dems, Things Get Better" Webinar.  Please join us next Wednesday for the latest showing of our "With Dems, Things Get Better" webinar. This project builds on a body of our work over the past few years, and makes the argument that one of the defining political developments of our time is just how different the two American political parties have become. 

The webinar will be a data rich dive into America in this new age of globalization since 1989, and will look at the performance of the two parties during this time - the 16 years of Obama and Clinton, the 15 plus years of the Bushes and Trump. What the data shows is that America has prospered and made progress when Democrats have been in power, and fallen behind, again and again, when Republicans have held the White House. You can register for the next showing of our webinar here.

Fri, June 12th, 2pm - NDN Talks with Rep. Anna Eshoo.  We are delighted to bring you an old and dear friend, Anna Eshoo, from Silicon Valley, CA.  Rep. Eshoo will share her thoughts on recent national events, with a particularly emphasis on her work developing our the nation's health response to COVID19, and her new bill which would ban microtargeting on social media platforms. You can register for our talk with Rep. Eshoo here

Wednesday, June 17th, 2pm ETNDN 2020 Poll Roundup – Over the past few weeks NDN has produced a great deal of indepth political analysis looking at the 2020 elections.  In this webinar, NDN’s Simon Rosenberg will be reviewing NDN’s recent work and taking attendees through a data filled look at where things stand today in US politics.  You can register for our nerding out on poll data webinar here.

Wed, June 24th, 2pm - "With Dems, Things Get Better" Webinar.  Please join us for the latest showing of our "With Dems, Things Get Better" webinar. This project builds on a body of our work over the past few years, and makes the argument that one of the defining political developments of our time is just how different the two American political parties have become. 

The webinar will be a data rich dive into America in this new age of globalization since 1989, and will look at the performance of the two parties during this time - the 16 years of Obama and Clinton, the 15 plus years of the Bushes and Trump. What the data shows is that America has prospered and made progress when Democrats have been in power, and fallen behind, again and again, when Republicans have held the White House. You can register for this webinar here.

Analysis: The Public Doesn't Trust Or Support Trump's Coronavirus Response

This is the fourth piece in NDN's weekly Thursday polling round-up. You can find the previous three weeks' pieces herehere, and here.

In recent weeks, we've discussed how the Presidential race continues to solidly lean towards the Democrats while the race for the Senate majority has become far more competitive to the point where it likely slightly favors the Dems. An important rationale for these developments (as well as a key factor for how the campaign will change going forward) is that the public, after a short "rally around the flag" moment, has begun to strongly disapprove of the President's response to the coronavirus crisis.

According to FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate, the public's approval of Trump's handling of the coronavirus outbreak peaked at net +3.5 (49.7/46.2) on March 25th. Since then, Trump's approval on this metric has steadily declined, and today it stands at net -9.2 (43.3/52.5) - its lowest level since this metric was created in mid-February. Importantly, this decline has taken place while governors' approval ratings continue to surge. In a new Washington Post poll released earlier this week, voters' approval of Trump's handling of coronavirus was -13 (43/56) while voters' approval of their governor's handling of the crisis was +41 (71/27). In particular, governors who Trump has openly attacked over the past month - Cuomo in NY, Whitmer in MI, and Pritzker in Illinois - have very strong approval ratings on their handling of coronavirus. Cuomo has net approval of +63 (81/18), Whitmer +47 (72/25), and Pritzker +41 (71/27).

Not only do voters not support what the President has done to respond to this crisis, they also don't trust the information that he is telling them regarding coronavirus. In a recent CNN poll, voters didn't trust the information that Trump was providing by a 26 point margin (36% trust, 62% didn't trust). By contrast, voters trusted Dr. Fauci by a 47 point margin (67/20), the CDC by a 52 point margin (74/22), and CNN by a 15 point margin (55/40).

Furthermore, the new narrative that Trump has latched onto - that "the cure is worse than the cause" and the country now needs to open up to support the economy ("Liberate!") - remains exceedingly unpopular among voters. According to new Navigator Research polling, when asked which concerned them more, 63% of voters said "ending social distancing too soon and prolonging the pandemic" while only 27% said "social distancing going on for too long and harming the economy". Similarly, 80% of voters said either that the current level of social distancing is right (40%) or that we need more aggressive social distancing (36%), while only 16% said that we need to relax current social distancing restrictions. 

Taken together, it is clear that the public doesn't support Trump's response to this crisis, doesn't trust him to tell the truth about it, and overwhelmingly opposes his new re-opening strategy. As always, below you can find a detailed aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands. 

Links: 1234567, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Finally, something very odd has happened in Trump favorability polling over the past month. While older voters have long been a core constituency for the President (he won voters over age 65 by 8 points in 2016 while losing the overall vote by 2, and won them by 2 points in 2016 while losing the overall vote by 9), his support among voters over age 75 fell significantly in April. According to polling from PRRI, the percentage of people who viewed Trump favorably in 2019 was 46% among those 65-74 and 47% among those 75+. Similarly, in March 2020 his favorability was 54% among those 65-74 and 56% among those 75+. In April, however, his favorability collapsed to just 34% among those 75+, while it still held up at 45% among those 65-74. We will of course need more time and much more polling to see if this significant change among elderly voters holds up, but it is something to keep an eye on. Perhaps the high mortality rates that elderly people face from coronavirus has made them particularly opposed to the President's attempts to downplay the virus. If so, the President's chances of winning in 2020 would be all but zero.

Invite: Today, May 15th 2pm ET - Simon Rosenberg & Rob Shapiro Discuss COVID

Please join us this Friday at 2pm for our semi-weekly webinar featuring Simon Rosenberg and Rob Shapiro discussing the latest updates and analysis on COVID-19. The briefing will take place on Zoom and will last for 45 minutes. If you would like to attend, please register at this link. Once you register, you will find a link to the briefing location on Zoom that will go live at 2pm on Friday.

Simon is NDN's President and is a frequent political strategist and commentator in the national media, appearing regularly in the New York Times, Washington Post, and MSNBC. In this past election cycle, he was a senior advisor to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, helping craft the strategy which netted Democrats 40 seats and earned the highest vote share by either party since 1986. 

Rob is a long-time contributor to NDN and was the Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs in the Clinton Administration. He was a senior economic advisor to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Kerry in their presidential campaigns, and is currently the Chairman of Sonecon LLC, an economic and security policy consultancy. 

As background, Rob published a new piece in The Washington Monthly today discussing how unemployment in April was even worse than the 14.7% number published on Friday, which you can read here. As well, Simon recently published a new piece about how to manage the 75 million young people who will be away from school and summer camps as a result of COVID over the next several months (link here), as well as one that discusses how COVID's spread through the White House within days of its reopening is a lesson for how hard it is going to be to open up the country in the days ahead (link here). 

Analysis: Control Of The Senate Is Now A Toss-Up, With Democrats Perhaps Slightly Favored

This is the third piece in NDN's weekly Thursday polling round-up. You can find the previous two weeks' pieces here and here.

In our polling round-ups over the past two weeks, we've discussed how the Presidential race remains remarkably consistent with the large advantages that the Democrats held in 2018, with the race continuing to see a 5-9 point lead for the Dems in our three preferred polling aggregates: Biden-Trump head to head, Trump approval rating, and Congressional generic ballot. 

However, a major new development in the past month has been a significant tightening of the race for the Senate majority, to the point where today Democrats probably are very slight favorites to win at least 50 seats. To get to 50 (a majority assuming Biden wins the presidency), Democrats have to win four of the following battleground states: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Montana, Iowa, two Georgia seats, and Alabama (Dems currently have 47 seats, so they need 3 new seats plus Alabama/a 4th state - so 4 of these battlegrounds). Importantly, two of these seats - Colorado and Arizona - look very close to locks for Democrats, as the polling averages there currently have Dems up high single digits (8 in Arizona, where there has been high quality polling, and 17.7 in Colorado, where the polling has been relatively low quality however).

As a result, the majority will likely come down to whether Democrats can win two seats from Maine, North Carolina, Montana, Iowa, Georgia (two races), and Alabama - and right now Democrats are competitive in most of these states. Firstly, Dems likely have slight leads in both North Carolina and Maine. North Carolina has had several quality polls and they currently have Cal Cunningham up 0.3 points over incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis. Importantly, Tillis has consistently had his approval rating in the high 30s, and in the head to head polling he is averaging just 40.7% support. Similarly, Sen. Susan Collins in Maine has seen a dramatic decline in her approval rating from over 50% approval in 2018 to the mid-30s now. Maine has had very little head to head polling, but one high quality poll from PPP had her trailing by 4 to Sara Gideon.

Secondly, Dems are very close (although probably slight underdogs) in Montana and Iowa. The entry of Gov. Bullock into the Montana race has made it very competitive, with a recent (although quite low quality) poll from the University of Montana giving Bullock a 7 point lead. Bullock is almost certainly not leading by that type of margin (if at all), but the race is one that Democrats have a good at chance at winning. And in Iowa, incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst has also seen her approval rating drop quite significantly over the past year, and a new PPP poll found her leading by only 1 point to one of her potential Democratic challengers. Just like in Montana, Democrats are probably slight underdogs to win in Iowa, but they have made the race competitive nonetheless (and that is likely all they need to do in these two races to have a very good chance at winning the majority).

Finally, Democrats are long shots in both Georgia races and especially the Alabama race, but they could still make the Georgia races competitive and regardless, Dems don't need to be close in these states to still win the majority.

As always, below you can find a detailed aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands. 

Links: 12345678910111213, 14, 15, 16

Much More Economic Support Is Needed To Prevent A Lost Decade

Over the past few weeks, we've begun to receive data on the state of the economy during the coronavirus crisis, and the numbers are even worse than expected. First quarter GDP fell by 4.8% on an annualized basis, the second worse quarterly decline since 1982 (only Q4 2008 was worse at -8.4%), and economists now project that Q2 GDP will decline by over 25%, by far the largest quarterly decline since the Second World War (the current worst decline is -10% in Q1 1958). Furthermore, over 30 million people have filed jobless claims over the past month and a half, and economists forecast that this Friday's employment report for April will show the unemployment rate hitting 15%. 

But perhaps the most worrying economic data is the CBO's newly released projection of unemployment - they forecast the jobless rate to average 10.1% in 2021, meaning that a v-shaped recovery doesn't occur and people continue to remain unemployed for an extended period of time, similar to the slow recovery seen in 2009-2011. This type of lost decade, with elevated unemployment and weak wage growth for years, is not inevitable however, and Congress and the Administration should do everything in their power to boost growth right now. In particular, there are four areas where a surge in new spending could make a real difference in boosting the recovery - significantly increasing funds for the PPP small business fund and making those funds more widely available; boosting spending on direct relief programs including food stamps, housing assistance, Medicaid, and TANF; sending out another round of $1,200 cash payments and making those payments monthly; and developing a massive loan program for state and local governments so that they don't cut budgets and lay off workers. The point is to boost spending in the economy as much as possible and, given historically low interest rates, the federal government shouldn't worry about taking on large deficits to do it.

Unfortunately, and reminiscent of their blanket opposition to the 2009 stimulus as well, Congressional Republicans have recently come out in opposition to this type of urgently-needed economic support package. Last month, McConnell infamously came out against aid to state and local governments as "blue state bailouts", even though this would help all states and clearly the dire straits of these states is a result of coronavirus, not profligate spending by certain states. Furthermore, Republicans opposed hundreds of billions of dollars in new funding for hospitals and testing, state and local governments, and relief programs such as food stamps in the latest relief package negotiations with Democrats, and only backed down in return for no money for state and local governments. This should not be a partisan issue - every additional dollar spent now will mean fewer unemployed Americans in a year's time, and it is our hope that Congress will come together to pass this type of legislation in coming weeks.

Analysis: The 2020 Election Is Shaping Up To Be A Lot More Like 2018 Than 2016

This is the second piece in NDN's weekly Thursday polling round-up. You can find last week's piece here.

NDN's central belief surrounding the 2020 election is that the race currently resembles the Democrats' significant victory in the 2018 midterms far more than it does Trump's win in 2016. Looking at our three preferred polling aggregates* - Trump approval among likely/registered voters (from FiveThirtyEight), Biden-Trump head to head (from Real Clear Politics), and the Congressional generic ballot (from FiveThirtyEight) - we can see this divergence clearly. First, the polling data underlying the current race looks very similar to that on election day in November 2018. On November 6th, 2018, Trump had a net approval rate of -9.6 among likely/registered voters and the Congressional generic ballot favored Democrats by 8.7 percentage points. Similarly, Trump's net approval today is -10 and the Congressional generic favors Dems by 7.7 points.

By contrast, the data we see today looks markedly different from what we had available in November 2016. On November 8th, 2016, Clinton led Trump head-to-head by 3.2 percentage points and the Congressional generic ballot favored Democrats by just 1.2 points. Meanwhile, Biden today leads Trump head-to-head by 6.3 points and Democrats lead Republicans by 8.7 points in the generic ballot. As we can see, the 2020 approval and generic ballot numbers are only 0.4 points and 1 point different from those same numbers in 2018, whereas the 2020 head-to-head and generic ballot numbers are 3.1 and 6.5 points different (in the Democrats' favor) from those same numbers in 2016. While there is still plenty of time for the 2020 race to see significant changes, right now the Democrats are keeping their 2018 advantages while Trump is not keeping his 2016 ones.

Below you can find a detailed aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands. 

Links: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

Finally, there are two other important data points that we believe point towards 2020 being a substantively different election than 2016: how voters who dislike both major candidates vote and how unified the Democratic party becomes behind its candidate. In both instances, it is clear that Biden has substantial upside compared to Clinton. First, on voters who have unfavorable opinions of both major candidates. According to data from CNN, voters who disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016 supported Trump by a 17 point margin. Right now, however, voters who dislike both Trump and Biden are supporting Biden by 50-60 points. This matters because Trump's favorability is so consistently low (it has remained at around 40-44% for his entire presidency) that he has to win voters who have unfavorable views of him to win the election. He did this in 2016, but isn't doing it right now.

Second, on party unity behind the Democratic candidate. In 2016, Clinton ended her primary campaign in May 2016 with strong unfavorables among Sanders supporters according to YouGov data - she had a net -16 favorability rating among them and 37% of those voters had a very unfavorable view of her. By contrast, Biden ended his primary campaign in April 2018 with much stronger numbers among Sanders supporters - he had a net -1 favorability rating among them and 23% had a very unfavorable opinion of him. This is also important because a major problem for Clinton in 2016 was her difficulty in uniting the more progressive wings of the party around her, while Biden starts the general election in much better shape among Sanders' supporters than Clinton did.

* Note that we can only make comparisons between elections using aggregates that were used in both elections being compared. For example, the generic ballot was used in both 2016 and 2018 so we can use that to compare the elections, but head-to-head polling was not used in 2018 so we cannot use that metric to compare 2016 and 2018.

Analysis: Democrats Begin The 2020 Election Where They Left Off In 2018

This piece is a live document that is updated with the latest polling data and analysis every Thursday.

As we enter the 2020 general election campaign in earnest this summer, NDN will be providing our latest thoughts on the structure of the race and how we believe the election will unfold. It is our belief that the central theme of this election will be continuity with the 2018 midterms that saw Democrats win the House by a historic 8.6 percentage point margin in the popular vote. That is to say, the struggles that Trump faced in winning suburban, college-educated voters in 2018 have continued in 2020, and if the election were held today the President would likely lose by a fairly wide margin. 

In particular, we like to focus on three major polling aggregates to measure the Presidential race: Trump and Biden head-to-head, Trump's approval rating among likely/registered voters, and the Dem-GOP generic Congressional ballot. As you can see in the chart below, each of these measures points to a similar "structure" of the election that currently favors the Democrats by about 6-9 points (and very similar to Dem's 8.6 margin in 2018) - Biden leads head-to-head by 5.9 points on average, Trump's net approval rating is -8.6 points, and the Congressional generic favors Dems by 7.6 points.

Furthermore, the gap between the national popular vote and vote shares in the battleground states that cost Clinton the election in 2016 doesn't seem to have expanded since 2016, which given Democrats' increased strength nationally means that they start the 2020 campaign with a fairly large lead. On aggregate, Biden leads Trump in Michigan by 5.5, Pennsylvania by 4.6, Wisconsin by 2.7, Arizona by 4.4, and Florida by 3.4. This battleground strength also carries over to the Senate battleground states (although polling outside of the AZ Senate race has been relatively minimal) - Kelly and Hickenlooper have wide leads in Arizona and Colorado, while Cunningham and Gideon likely have small leads in North Carolina and Maine.

Finally, it is important to note that the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting major recession that the US will continue to face over the summer will likely have large, but still uncertain, effects on the 2020 election. Trump briefly saw a small "rally around the flag" boost to his approval rating (it hit a high of net -3.9 on March 28th), but this effect both didn't seem to affect his head-to-head numbers against Biden and has since then completely eroded. It could be the case that the public's quickly souring opinion of the President's coronavirus response could see his numbers fall to all-time lows, or the hyper-partisan nature of the current era could cause his numbers to stay in the narrow band that they've been in since 2017. We don't really know at this point, but either scenario means that Trump has a lot of work to do if he wants to win a second term.

Below you can find an aggregate of the most important polling data (in our view) for understanding where the 2020 election currently stands. 

Links: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20

Invite: Wed, June 10th, 2pm ET - With Dems Things Get Better Presentation

Please join NDN on Wednesday, June 10th at 2pm ET for our regular showing of our "With Dems, Things Get Better" webinar.  This new recurring webinar marks the debut of a new initiative here at NDN, “The Asymmetry Project.”  This project builds on a body of our work over the past few years, and makes the argument that one of the defining political developments of our time is just how different the two American political parties are, and have become.

This webinar will take place on Zoom, you can register for the event here

"With Dems Things Get Better" is a data rich dive into what has happened in America since the Berlin Wall fall in 1989 and a new age of globalization began. We ook at the performance of the two parties during this time – the 16 years of Obama and Clinton, the 15 plus years of the Bushes and Trump.  What the data shows is that America has prospered and made progress when Democrats have been in power, and fallen behind, again and again, when Republicans have held the White House.  We then spend time discussing what this all means for the coming recovery, policy making more broadly in the years ahead and in the short term, the 2020 election itself. 

We hope you can join us!  And do invite others - all are welcome.

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