Today, Ezra Klein revisited the issue of the undemocratic Senate in his blog, highlighting its impact on the recently failed gun legislation. In doing so he joins Alec Macgillis from The New Republic, who recently highlighted the same imbalance and forecast the result on the gun legislation, and the New York Times' Adam Liptak who also wrote on the undemocratic nature of the Senate.
Klein explains that "Of the senators from the 25 largest states, the Manchin-Toomey legislation received 33 aye votes and 17 nay votes — a more than 2:1 margin, putting it well beyond the 3/5ths threshold required to break a filibuster. But of the senators from the 25 smallest states, it received only 21 aye votes and 29 nay votes." He concludes, powerfully, that the Senate ultimately "took a bill supported by most Americans and killed it because it was intensely opposed by a minority who disproportionately live in small, rural states."
NDN has researched and investigated this topic thoroughly, this "small state bias," starting back in early 2012. At the core of our research is the idea that with demographic and population shifts, the Senate's representational schema has increasingly amplified what was already disproportionate representation for individuals in small states at the time of the founding. Though Wyoming has a population approximately 1/66th of California, both are of course awarded same amount of Senators. If you combine Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota and Vermont, they suddenly have four times the amount of Senators as California, despite, with their aggregated populations, only having 1/16th as many people as the "Golden State".
50% of the population of the United States is represented by 18 Senators, leaving the other 50% with 82. These halves, though proportionately equitable, are hardly the same. States with higher populations tend to be more diverse, a trend likely to continue with demographic and population shifts.
The undemocratic imbalance in the Upper Chamber has real legislative consequences - the failure to reach cloture on the vote yesterday cogently demonstrates that. And for those who highlight that the Founders intended the Senate to be the generally slower, more conservative (not ideologically, but in instituting or passing legislation), and deliberately more representative of smaller states - consider that at the time of the Convention, the biggest discrepancy in state populations was between Delaware and Virginia. That difference in population only represents a fifth of the current difference between California and Wyoming. Further, there was no institutional hurdle akin to the Filibuster. The new threshold of sixty votes exacerbates the disconnect between the people and its representation in the Senate.
Popular support for background checks, depending on which poll you look at, hovers between eighty and ninety percent. Jon Kohn and Eric Kingsburg crunched the numbers and found that when you factor in the population of states from which the Senators voting "yea" yesterday, nearly two-thirds of the US population is accounted for. Not only is that a substantial majority, but it exceeds the threshold for the Filibuster. And that is still fifteen to twenty-five points shy of the polling numbers.
The undemocratic Senate is then a major abbettor in the Upper Chamber's failure to pass background checks through a filibuster. If this were amended, it seems the legislation would likely advance. As the President promises that the debate on background checks and reform is not over, we'll have to see if the tide of popular support will eventually win out in the debate to stem gun violence.