NDN Blog

Wed, November 8th - A collection of NDN resources on the historic 2012 election:

Simon's 2012 Post Election Briefing (Video) - ICYMI, Simon hosted a lively 2012 Election Briefing/Chat earlier today via Spreecast. If you have the time it is full of great information and terrific questions.  Simon's presentation is about 20 minutes long, and he then takes another 25 minutes of questions.  To watch the recording, please click here.

Additional articles from Simon - As background, please find some of Simon's most influential essays over the past few years, including yesterday's memo which correctly predicted that President Obama would win with 332 electoral votes:

Election Day 2012 Memo: Why Voters Are Not Voting for the Status Quo, The Consent of the Governed and More, NDN.org. November 5, 2012.  Simon offers his thoughts on what will happen in the 2012 elections, and what might come next.  Includes his predictions for the outcomes of the Presidential, Senate and House races. 

Forward, or Backward?, Letras Libres. October 12, 2012. A long-form magazine article which argues that the problems the Republican Party is facing today stem from its inability to accept and adapt to the big changes in the world and the US over the past generation. 

Race Will Be A Major Issue for Mitt Romney, US News and World Report.  Jan, 2012.  In this essay Simon argued that Mitt Romney's reactionary positions on race and immigration would be a major problem for him in the fall elections. 

The Age of Possibility (video), NDN.org. April 29, 2011.  Video of a "TED" style talk given by Simon at Tufts University which makes the case that the 21st century is full of more possibility for humankind than any century in our history. 

Crafting An American Response to the Rise of the Rest, Salon. January 20, 2010.  In this big-picture look forward, Simon lays out what he believes should be the three major governing objectives of the American center-left in this next decade of the 21st century.  

On Obama, Race, and the End of the Southern Strategy, NDN.org. January 4, 2008.  Simon's reflections on the night of the Iowa Caucuses about the rise of Barack Obama and the emergence of a new Electoral College map and a possible new majority coalition for the Democratic Party.  

The 50 Year Strategy: A New Progressive Era (No, Really!), Mother Jones. November/December 2007.  The seminal long-form article by Simon and Peter Leyden which made the case that big changes in demography, media and technology and in the issues in front of the American people was opening a new and promising political age for the American center-left. 

Articles from Mike and Morley - Please find relevant work from NDN Fellows and experts on generational politics Mike Hais and Morley Winograd:

2012: Another Generational Triumph, NDN.org. November 8, 2012.

GOP Hispanic Political Malpractice, NDN.org. October 29, 2012.

Opinion: Women, Minorities, Millenials Will Determine America's Next Civic Ethos, National Journal. October 19, 2012.

Opinion: Leaders Need New Civic Ethos to Appeal to Shifting Demographics, National Journal. September 6, 2012.

Press Appearances On The New Coalition, New Electorate - Our team has been doing a lot of press these last few days. 

Mike and Morley weighed in for Ron Brownstein's terrifc National Journal piece, and a Matt Bai essay in the New York Times. Also see their recent op-ed in the Huffington Post, titled "Another Millenial Triumph."

Simon appeared in a San Francisco Chronicle piece by Carla Marinucci, Jim McTague's article in Barron's on the fiscal cliff, Susan Page's USA Today election summary and look ahead to the next term, articles in the Washington Post by Ezra Klein here and here, and this piece by Peter Wallsten, also of the Washington Post.  

Simon also appeared on BBC Radio's World at One, BBC News 24, Fox Business Network's Varney & Co. and Fox's "America Live with Megyn Kelly".  He appeared on London's Channel 4 News and Fox's Happening Now earlier this week. 

Update: Simon won The Hill's Election Prediction Contest for the second time in the last three elections for his prediction of 332 EVs, 51-48, 53 in the Senate, 200 in the House. 

Simon appeared on "Happening Now with Jon Scott and Jenna Lee" on Election Day, November 6, to discuss the 2012 elections, Ohio, and predictions for tonight's results.

For reference, please find a list of poll closing times for election day from Taegan Goddard's Political Wire here. These are sorted by closing times in EST.

6:00 pm ET 

• Indiana
• Eastern Kentucky

7:00 pm ET

• Florida (except Western panhandle which close at 8 pm.)
• Georgia
• Western Kentucky
• New Hampshire
• South Carolina
• Vermont
• Virginia

7:30 pm ET

• North Carolina
• Ohio
• West Virginia

8:00 pm ET

• Alabama
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Washington, D.C.
• Illinois
• Kansas
• Maine
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• New Jersey
• Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania
• Tennessee
• Texas

8:30 pm ET

• Arkansas

9:00 pm ET

• Arizona
• Colorado
• Louisiana
• Minnesota
• Nebraska
• New Mexico
• New York
• North Dakota
• Rhode Island
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Wyoming

10:00 pm ET

• Idaho
• Iowa
• Montana
• Nevada
• Oregon
• Utah

11:00 pm ET

• California
• Washington

12:00 am ET

• Alaska
• Hawaii

Friends,

Please join NDN/NPI this Wednesday, November 7th for a conversation with NDN/NPI President Simon Rosenberg, as he offers his thoughts on electoral outcomes and moving forward. This conversation will take place at 12:00 pm EST via Spreecast video. Simon will speak for about ten minutes and then take questions from participants. 

To join the conversation, please RSVP HERE by Noon on Wednesday, November 7th. 

For more from Simon please read his recent essay in leading Latin American journal Letras Libres, titled, "Forward, or Backward?" and follow Simon on Twitter at @SimonWDC.

Nelson Cunningham, Chair of NDN's Latin America Policy Initiative, was published The Huffington Post on November 4, 2012 in an op-ed titled, "Romney's Empty Latin Trade Promises." Please find excerpts below. The full article can be found here.

"Mitt Romney says that he wants more trade with Latin America. In fact, that's point two in his five-point plan for the economy, as he reminded us in the third debate. How? By negotiating new trade agreements in the region. With which countries, exactly? He doesn't say, and frankly it's difficult to name a likely candidate. Thanks to the efforts of President Obama and his three predecessors of both parties, we already have trade agreements with every country of size in the region that is interested in liberalized trade with the United States: Mexico, Central America, Panama, Colombia, Peru, Chile and the Dominican Republic. The Caribbean islands, so important to Florida, benefit from a special trade status...So when Floridians consider which candidate will be better for Florida businesses and workers that look south for their commercial opportunities, or that will benefit from increased and balanced trade across the Pacific and with Europe, their choice should be President Obama. Not the candidate whose Latin America trade platform consists of an FTA with a player to be named later."

Today, Simon appeared on "America Live with Megyn Kelly," for another follow up debate about Benghazi. For more background, make sure to read Simon's recent piece on Libya.

Simon appeared on "Happening Now with Jon Scott & Jenna Lee" on October 31, 2012 in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy to discuss its potential impact on the upcoming election.

NDN is proud to release a paper from Dr. Rob Shapiro and Doug Dowson, "The Financial Hazards and Risks Entailed in Extending Unlimited Federal Guarantees for Deposits in Transaction Accounts." From the introduction of the paper: 

"In the aftermath of a financial crisis, policymakers often must determine how best to trade off future security from a similar crisis and future moral hazard.  The more the government pledges to protect the value of the assets of financial institutions in a crisis, the greater the risks that those institutions may take in search of higher profits.  This moral hazard may increase the likelihood of a future crisis.   

Since the 2008-2009 financial meltdown, U.S. policymakers have faced this trade-off in various forms.  One particularly pure example is evident in the current debate over extending the “Transaction Account Guarantee” (TAG) program.  This program was created in October 2008, at the height of the last financial crisis, to temporarily guarantee deposits held in non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, above the existing $250,000 limit.  The higher coverage was voluntary, yet it proved to be very popular:  87 percent of banks and savings institutions that were part of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) system opted for the increased coverage.  In the midst of the widespread sense of financial panic that prevailed in the first months of the crisis, the TAG program was intended to bolster confidence in financial institutions, and discourage customers from withdrawing their funds.  With several large financial institutions bankrupt or sinking fast, it is unsurprising that most banks welcomed the new guarantee.

Based on economic reasoning and analysis, we conclude that extending the current, unlimited transaction account guarantee would be harmful to the stability and competitiveness of the U.S. banking sector.  Unlimited deposit insurance increases moral hazard and represents a threat to the nation’s long-term financial stability.  History has shown that unlimited deposit insurance increases the likelihood of banking crises. Emergency measures to increase deposit insurance during a financial crisis should therefore be removed as soon as possible.  The transaction account guarantee is also unnecessary now that the U.S. banking sector has returned to pre-crisis levels of profitability.  As we will show, claims that the guarantee is necessary to ensure a “level playing field” for small and large banks are also flawed.  Since December 2008, non-TAG deposits have grown in banks of all sizes, including small institutions.  Furthermore, extending this federal guarantee could send a negative signal to investors and the public that four years after the crisis has passed, Congress and the President still lack confidence in the security of the U.S. banking system." 

To read the rest of Dr. Shapiro and Mr. Downson's paper, please click on the link below.

Yesterday, NDN Globalization Initiative Chair Dr. Robert Shapiro released a new paper documenting wage and salary growth in the United States in the last decade. The release of the paper featured a discussion between Dr. Shapiro and Ed Luce, Chief US Commentator for the Financial Times. In case you missed the event, please find C-SPAN coverage of our event here.

Simon appeared on "America Live with Megyn Kelly" today to discuss the 2012 election and the path forward.