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Analysis: Democrats Leading in Congressional Generic Ballot Post-Roe by Almost 2 Points

Analysis: Democrats Leading in Congressional Ballot Post-Roe

This new election analysis builds on three earlier onesThe Strategic Context For The 2022 Elections Is ChangingAnalysis: Red Wave? Hard To See One Now, and Analysis: Democrats Make Big Gains in 3 New Polls – It’s A New Election.  You can also find a new recording of Simon's 20 minute presentation of this data from Friday, July 8th.

We are pleased elements of this work have been cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The Bulwark and Peter Weber in The Week. Simon also did an indepth election review with Ian Masters last Tuesday night for his radio show/podcast and Joe Trippi discusses our analysis in his podcast, That Trippi Show.  And we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!

A new front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein gives our political thesis serious consideration in a new CNN analysis.

The Generic Turns Positive for Democrats - There have now been 9 polls reporting out the Congressional Generic (via 538) since Roe ended, and they have averaged 45.4 D/43.7 R (+1.7 Dem).  Taking out Rasmussen it’s +2.5 Dem.  It has been -2 to -2.5 Dem for many months.  This data suggests the race has moved 3-5 points to the Democrats in recent weeks.  Five of the nine polls show meaningful movement towards the Democrats since their last poll, and several show large Dem leads now in the generic: 

                            Last Poll   New Poll  Dem Shift

NPR/Marist         44-47          48-41         +10

Monmouth           43-50          46-48          +5 

Big Village           44-42          47-42          +3 

Yahoo/YouGov    43-39          45-38          +3 

Politico/Morn C   42-42          45-42          +3

In new comprehensive polls of battleground states Future Majority found the Congressional Generic shifting from 43-45 (-2) in March to 44-42 (+2) now, a 4 point shift.  Just added a chart at the bottom of new Navigator polling which shows a 24 point favorability drop for Republicans with independents, and 10 points overall.  That is a big very number in a very short amount of time.

FM’s new research and others who track voter intensity are seeing significant increases on the Democratic side.  See this from Morning Consult - Democratic Voters’ Enthusiasm for Midterms Spikes in Wake of Supreme Court’s Abortion Ruling.  In FM’s battleground survey for the first time this cycle more Democrats (92%) said they were more extremely motivated to vote than Republicans (89%).  

A review of recent Senate polling strongly suggests if the election were held today Democrats would retain the Senate and perhaps even pick up a few seats. The NYTimes has a good Senate overview today, and that new polling from Future Majority finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats: 

AZ – Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41.  He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March. 

GA – Warnock leads Walker 48-44.  He trailed 48-49 in March.

NH – Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40.  They didn’t poll NH in March.  

NV – Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43.  She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.  

Republicans are showing significant weakness now in their seats.  Fetterman has meaningful leads in several recent polls, and now has to be considered a favorite in that race.  Ron Johnson trailed 3 of his 4 opponents in a new Marquette University poll, a poll that suggests that Johnson – even before Roe and his admitted involvement in Trump’s effort to overturn the election – is in serious trouble.  There have been polls showing Democratic leads in NC and OH though those races are considered by many a bit tougher.  Bottom line – Dems are in our book now favorites to keep the Senate, and have a shot at picking up 1-2 seats.  If we get two seats and keep the House filibuster carve ours for codifying Roe and election reform become real possibilities next year. 

The only real data we have for the House itself so far is an actual election which took place last week.  The Democrat running in a Special Election in NE-2 the Democratic candidate lost by 6-7 points in a district Trump won by 11.  This result was suprising on many levels, and once again supports the notion that there is no red wave, and that things are actually moving towards the Democrats.

What happened? What about Biden’s approval rating? 

We think many political analysts have been overly reliant on Biden’s low approval rating to craft their forecasts this cycle, and overly discounted how hard it would be for Republicans to win back voters who had just voted against MAGA twice in record numbers.  Remember that since Trump won the nomination in 2016 the average Dem margin in those 3 elections was Dem +5, and in the last two it was Dem +6.5 in very high turnout elections.  In those three election Republicans never got above 46.9 (46.1/44.8/46.9), and Democrats never below 48.2 (48.2/53.6/51.4).  The main questions of this election were always – 

-  Would the anti-MAGA majority show up again given the GOP’s intense embrace of MAGA, extremism this cycle? 

-  Realistically, how high would the GOP’s ceiling be this year given that running as MAGA they hadn’t ever broken 47%? Could they turn disappointment in Dems into a wave given their extremism? 

While in many elections disappointment in the party in power leads people to vote for the other party, that dynamic, given that the Rs have run towards a politics a clear majority had just rejected twice, was never a given this year.  It would be easy for a voter to be disappointed in Biden and still vote straight Democratic.  As I wrote in a previous analysis it was hard to find Republicans near or over 50 in any competitive race pre-Roe, something that suggests they were struggling to break past that 47% ceiling.  In the nine post-Roe Congressional Generic polls the GOP sits at 43.9%.  Republicans are underperforming in the PA and WI Senate races, and are not clearly ahead in any Dem held seat. All of this suggests that the typical midterm dynamic so many analysts have assumed would kick in just isn’t manifesting this cycle. Biden's approval rating just matter less than usual. 

The events of recent weeks have made the chance of that dynamic kicking in against the Democrats far less likely, and that we are now looking at a competitive, atypical midterm. Mass shootings, extremist abortion restrictions, a massive GOP led conspiracy to overturn an election, an out of control and partisan Supreme Court – this is ugly stuff, the kind of stuff that can cause a party to lose an election.  Would all of this MAGA ugly and extremism become a more powerful force in the election than disappointment in Biden and worries about inflation? Of course it could.  Opposition to MAGA was the main driver of the last two elections, and has, in all likelihood, become the main driver of this one too.  For the extremism and illiberalism of the MAGA/GOP is actually the most important issue in American politics today, with nothing else even close.  In the latest Economist/YouGov poll the favorability of Congressional Democrats is -12, but Congressional Republicans are -27.  These are really intense negatives to overcome.    

Looking ahead, analysts should consider that the ugliness of MAGA could get far worse in the coming months, not better.  More mass shootings are likely to occur.  Right wing terror could return and escalate. Students could be forced against their will into public religious prayer and study groups.  Terrible stories about doctors getting arrested, 10-year-olds being forced to give birth, women being chased across state lines and some in distress not getting treated will become widely, repeatedly known.  We will learn more about the vast conspiracy involving hundreds of Republican leaders and staff to illegally overturn an American election.  More subpoenas of high-level Republicans will continue.  Indictments and arrests could even begin.  

For Democrats, there is now an opportunity to create a new far more positive frame for this election.  One that starts with a strong recovery, millions of new jobs and rising wages, talks about our ongoing work get inflation down despite Putin’s aggression, makes clear what we will do with power next year and then ends with a powerful and intense indictment of the GOP’s radicalization and extremism, MAGA.  It is time for offense now, not defense.  We liked the way Gavin Newsom played all this in his new ad challenging DeSantis in Florida.  Way we need to be talking, thinking now – we need to take it to them and get out of our defensive crouch.  

Our goal should be to give Joe Biden at least two new Senators and keep the House.  This goal is now a doable one, and as one of the most capable leaders likes to say “we can do hard things.” Let’s get to work people.  It’s a new day.

This analysis was originally posted on Wed, July 6th and has been updated several times.

Invite: Pop-up Political/Poll Briefings July 8th 1230pm ET

It has been a dramatic week in US politics, and we thought it would be good to gather to review and discuss it all.

We held a well attended pop-up briefing last Thursday and so we've decided to offer two more next week on July 6th at 4pm ET and July 8th at 1230pm ET.  In each briefing I will go over the last few weeks of polling data which show a very competitive national landscape and meaningful movement towards the Dems. As I wrote in a new analysis piece recent polling now suggests if the election were held today the Senate would likely stay in Democratic hands.  I will also be offering some thoughts on what we’ve learned from the January 6th Committee and how the center-left needs to respond to the growing radicalization of the Supreme Court and the GOP itself.

Register for Fri, July 8th at 1230pm

Feel free to invite friends and colleagues.  The more the merrier.  Hope you have a restful 4th and hope to see you next week.

Best, S

Analysis: Democrats Make Big Gains in 3 New Polls – It’s A New Election

Join us for a discussion of the new electoral landscape on Wed, July 6th and Friday, July 8th.  Learn more, register here.

Wed, June 28th - Yesterday NDN released a new political analysis (below) which argued that a combination of recent events had begun to change the election in ways which were favorable to the Democrats (this new thread has some updated numbers which confirm the trendline discussed here).

We now have three independent polls taken since the Supreme Court ended Roe last Friday which show that there has been significant movement towards the Democrats.  These poll results, below, are responses to the Congressional Generic, the simple question of whether you intend to vote Democratic or Republican this fall.  At the end of last week the Republicans held a 2.5 point lead in 538’s tracker.  In these three polls Democrats have on average a 5.67 point lead. 

NPR/Marist             48% Dem   41% GOP   Dem +7 

Morning Consult     45% Dem   42% GOP   Dem +3 

Yahoo/YouGov       45% Dem   38% GOP   Dem +7 

In the Yahoo/YouGov poll a "Pro-choice Democrat" vs "Pro-life Republican" is 47%-32%, a 15 point Democratic lead.  

It's a new election.  The chances of the anti-MAGA majority showing up again - as it did in 2018 and 2020 - have increased dramatically. 

Note - In a Tuesday, June 28th Special Election in NE-2 the Democratic candidate lost by 6-7 points in a district Trump won by 11.  Further evidence the election has moved significantly towards the Democrats in recent days/weeks. 

See this analysis cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Susan Milligan in US News, John Skolnick in Salon, and AB Stoddard in The Bulwark and with Ian Masters in his new radio show/podcast

Analysis: The 2022 Election Landscape Is Changing, Chances of Dems Keeping the Senate Have Risen Significantly (June 27th) – In a May essay, The Strategic Context for the 2022 Election Is Changing, we argued that combination of new developments - ending of Roe, renewed mass shootings, Jan 6th Committee revelations, terrible GOP candidates – was changing the context for the 2022 elections in ways that would make it more difficult for the Rs to take advantage of Biden’s low approval ratings.  To put it simply, political analysts were overly discounting the ugliness of the GOP’s offering this year, and that it was our belief that the elections were likely to be much more competitive than conventional wisdom had held.  

Last week we released an analysis showing that in the major Gubernatorial and Senate races we were seeing Democrats holding and no sign of a red wave.  In fact, in our recent polling of Hispanic voters in AZ, NV and PA and in the GOP held Senate seats in NC, OH, PA, WI we were seeing signs of GOP underperformance.  Based on all this we concluded that the Senate was more likely to stay Democratic than flip, and that in fact the election was much more competitive than many understood.  

Then the Supreme Court weakened common sense guns laws and ended Roe.  In our Hispanic polling, close to 50% of Hispanic voters said ending Roe would make it more likely for them to vote Democratic this year.  A new CBS news poll out Sunday found Democrats now 50% more likely to vote due to the end of Roe.  A new NPR/Marist poll out this morning (An “A” rated poll on 538) found similar heightened vote intent with Democrats, and a true potential gamechanger – the Congressional generic had flipped from 47R-44D in April to 48D-41R now.  Just wow. 

To understand the significance of this data let’s review some basic electoral math.  The Democratic margin in the last 3 elections has been +5, in the last 2 since the country came to understand MAGA it’s been +6.5.  In these last two elections the country gave the Congress and the Presidency to the Democrats, and voted in record numbers in both elections.  There is a clear and proven anti-MAGA majority which showed up in big numbers in these last two elections and gave Democrats important wins across the board (more on this here). 

The big question in this election, as I discuss in a new John Harwood CNN analysis, is whether this huge anti-MAGA majority, motivated by ongoing fear/opposition to an even more extremist GOP, would show up again in this election.  Just think about it – is loss of reproductive freedom, far more gun violence, clear overwhelming evidence that hundreds of GOP leaders conspired to overturn an American election (and perhaps weakening our ability to fight climate change) as significant to voters as a 3-4% real increase in your grocery bill? Of course these things can matter as much, if not more.  Particularly when the inflation we are seeing today is being driven by Putin’s outrageous invasion of Ukraine, not Democratic policies.  

Another math insight – while the Democratic coalition is bigger than the Republican coalition is also has a higher percentage of new and infrequent voters.  For Democrats the two groups who were most likely not to show up – younger people and Hispanics – care deeply about reproductive health, climate and gun safety.  In our Hispanic polling 18-29 year old Latinas are 59% more likely to vote Dem due to the end of Roe, and 83% of 18-29 year olds believe abortion should be legal.  There is incredible intensity here about reproductive health, and it is very likely now that the Court’s decisions this past week will lead to these very Democratic parts of our coalition to show up in much larger numbers. 

All of this together is why we think the election is changing now and has changed; why we think what we are seeing in the data is a competitive not a wave election; and why if the election were held today we think the Senate would stay Democratic, with a reasonable chance - due to clear GOP underperformance in PA and WI and potentially elsewhere - of Democrats picking up 1-2 Senate seats.  

The Marist data suggests an even greater swing to Democrats than we would have anticipated – but let’s see where the data and this debate takes us.  One thing to watch – it’s our belief that as voters come to understand the true public health impacts of restricting abortion the tide will turn even more against the GOP this year.   

Best, Simon 

New Future Majority Polling Memo on Hispanics, Abortion and the End of Roe

With the Dobbs Supreme Court decision imminent, our friends at Future Majority have released a new memo looking at how Hispanic voters in AZ, NV and PA view abortion and the possible end of Roe. The summary of their findings is below, and you can find the full memo here.  The bottom line – Hispanic voters in these three states overwhelming support the right to a legal abortion in America, and ending Roe will dramatically increase support for Democratic candidates, especially among younger voters and women. 

If these results are replicated nationally, the GOP’s attempts to restrict abortion access will be a serious problem for Republican candidates with Hispanic voters in this and future elections. For more on Future Majority’s new polls of Hispanic voters, see this memo summarizing the findings in all three states, and be sure to watch our discussion with Fernand Amandi, the project’s pollster, as he walks through the data.  The three polls show a surprising degree of strength for Democratic candidates, and across the board weakness for Republicans – confounding the emerging conventional wisdom about recent trends in the Hispanic electorate.

We also recommend our new analysis, The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party’s Hispanic Strategy.  It shows how Democrats have picked up millions of votes, over 30 Electoral College votes and critical Senate and House seats through their gains with Hispanic voters over the past 20 years. 

NDN and I are proud to support this important new project from Future Majority, and are excited to bring more of it to you - Simon

Future Majority Memo Summary

Hispanic voters in these three states overwhelmingly support a woman’s right to choose.  Support for abortion is particularly strong with younger Hispanic voters, and almost half of all Hispanic voters in all three states say the issue will make it more likely they support a Democrat this fall.  Less than 20% of Hispanics in these three states say ending Roe will make it more likely for them to vote Republican. 

Spanish speakers are far less supportive of legal abortion than English speakers, but as of now, this does not appear to be a significant opening for Republicans. Spanish speakers in all three states are significantly more Democratic than English speakers, and very few say it will make it more likely for them to vote for a Republican this fall.  In fact, in each state, far more Spanish speakers say ending Roe will make it more likely for them to vote Democratic than Republican.

As it has been for decades, the GOP argument that abortion is a gateway for their candidates with Hispanic voters appears to be wishful thinking in these three states.  If anything, our data shows that Republican efforts to end a woman's right to choose is likely to be far more beneficial to Democratic candidates than Republican candidates this fall, particularly with Hispanic women and younger Hispanics. 

Support for legal abortion is over 60% for Hispanic voters under 50 years of age, and is up in the high 70s and low 80s for Hispanics 18-29.  Only one in ten Hispanics in these three states believe abortion should be illegal in all cases.  

Invite: Wed - Rep. Scott Peters on Inflation, J6 Committee, SCOTUS/End of Roe

Please join us this Wednesday for a conversation with Rep. Scott Peters, Vice Chair of the largest caucus in the House, the New Democrat Coalition.  Rep. Peters will be discussing the NDC’s new action plan to fight inflation, a hugely impressive and important contribution to the current economic debate.  He will also be discussing the dramatic new revelations coming from the January 6th Committee and the Supreme Court’s extraordinary right ward shift.  After some initial opening remarks, we will open it up to our guests for questions and answers.   

In reviewing the New Dem plan to fight inflation Forbes called it “the best inflation-fighting blueprint to come out of Congress yet.”

Our conversation with Rep. Peters will be on Wednesday, June 29th at 430pm ET via Zoom.  You can register for the event here, and learn more about the NDC’s plan to fight inflation here and below.  We hope you can make it – this plan is among the more ambitious projects in the NDC’s proud history.  It will be well worth your time. 

More on the NDC’s Action Plan to Fight Inflation

“Today, the New Democrat Coalition (NDC) released a comprehensive action plan to fight inflation, lower the cost of living for Americans, and secure the long-term fiscal future of the nation. The New Dem plan examines the actions President Biden and Congressional Democrats have already taken to cut costs and outlines tangible steps federal policymakers can take to reduce prices on essential goods and services and provide relief to American families, workers, and businesses. 

New Dem Leadership members today also wrote to President Biden and Congressional Leadership calling for the implementation of the Coalition’s plan to fight inflation. New Dems urged President Biden to roll back costly and ineffective Trump-era tariffs, address the workforce shortage, and work to lower costs on everyday necessities, including housing, energy, and health care. In Congress, New Dems are pressing leadership to quickly finalize a bipartisan innovation bill, negotiate a strong reconciliation bill focused on fighting inflation, and use every legislative week to advance an affordability agenda on the House floor. 

President Biden and Congressional Democrats have made historic progress in getting Americans back to work, growing the economy, strengthening supply chains, and reversing decades of underinvestment in our nation’s infrastructure. However, this rapid economic growth along with lingering pandemic challenges and Putin’s unjust war in Ukraine has led to rising prices here at home and across the globe. That’s why the NDC formed a first-of-its-kind Inflation Working Group that meets and works with economists, policy experts, and key stakeholders to develop and advance effective policy solutions to fight inflation.”

 

Analysis: Red Wave? Hard To See One Now

Red Wave? Hard to See One Now – A few weeks ago I was helping Future Majority make sense of the early data from its new polls of Hispanic voters in AZ, NV and PA and we came across something remarkable - the biggest gap between the Democratic and Republican candidates came in the named candidate head to heads.  Other measures - the generic vote, party favorabilities, Biden favorability, the Biden/Trump 2020 - would have suggested that gap between the GOP and Dem candidates running in 2022 be a bit closer.  But when the candidates were named in the three states the spread looked more like the big 2018 year for Democrats, not 2020, which was just a good year.

So I decided to spend some time looking to see if this kind of trend showed up in other publicly available poll data.  My operating theory of this election since last summer has been that the Rs would have a very low ceiling this cycle, as they have had since Trump won the nomination in 2016 – 46.1% in 2016, 44.8% in 2018, 46.9% in 2020.  In the last two elections a clear anti-MAGA majority emerged in America, with Democrats winning by an average of 6.5 pts in historically high turnout elections. This is rough math for a party which has made the consequential choice of doubling down on a politics – MAGA – which has had more people vote against it than any other political movement in American history.  So it's been my belief for sometime that this election wasn't going to necessarily behave like a traditional midterm, as the Republicans had run towards a deeply unpopular politics, not run away from it. That a red wave, while possible, was unlikely.

What I found in reviewing recent publicly available polling of Senate and Governor's races - actual heads to heads, not other less important measures - was a competitive not a wave election (see this thread for the data).  What was most surprising is how strong the Senate currently looks for Democrats.  None of the 4 most endangered Dem incumbents are clearly behind (AZ, GA, NH, NV) and the latest polling has Democrats ahead in 4 GOP held seats – NC, OH, PA, WI (here's the new WI poll showing Ron Johnson in serious trouble, and another bad PA poll for the Rs).  The two PA polls showing Fetterman with 6 and 9 point leads over Oz are the most significant of the lot, and let’s be clear about what they mean – that as of today it's easier to see how Democrats pick up a Senate seat than it is to see how Republican get the single seat they need to gain the majority. 

Any fair analysis of this cycle would work hard to balance the obvious challenges for Democrats – Biden’s low approval rating/inflation, etc – with the really significant challenges Republican’s face – blown COVIDongoing radicalization/insurrection, terrible candidates, horrifically divided party, very low party approval, ending of Roe, return of mass shooting, etc. Most of what we've gotten so far from many analysts is why the election is going to be tough for Democrats, leaving out all the clear and serious liabiliities Republicans will be struggling to overcome this year.  Given the data presented here that downplaying of the GOP's struggles this cycle needs to change.  A clear sign that Republicans know this thing ain't breaking their way right is now is Senator McConnell's working with Democrats on gun safety legislation, an almost unimaginable event.  For Mitch, that he needed to do something like this is a sign of a weak hand, not a strong one.  It is an affirmation this election is not performing as Republicans had hoped, or as much the media is presenting it today. 

I wrote the following in a recent memo, The Strategic Context for the 2022 Election is Changing: "New events – Russia’s ongoing aggression, mass shootings, the end of Roe, a more complete understanding of MAGA’s attack on our political system – are together creating a new strategic framework or context for US politics now.  That new strategic context is giving Joe Biden and the Democrats the opportunity to reframe the economic conversation, something the White House began in earnest yesterday; and it will make it far more likely Democrats will be successful at labeling Republicans out of the mainstream, extreme, unfit.  While these new realities may not be showing up in polling yet, it is our belief that the election has fundamentally changed in the last few weeks, something that will become clearer to all in the coming days."

What I found in my research suggests that maybe these GOP vulnerabilities are beginning to show up in polls, and that this election may be much competitive today than is understood; that perhaps fear of MAGA remains the most powerful force in American politics as it has been the last two cycles, more powerful even than disapointment in Joe Biden. Does that mean a red wave won't eventually form? We don't know. We do know, however, that it hasn't formed yet. Of the 10 most recent generic ballots in 538's tracker, Rs only led in 3, and the average was 42.2 Dem, 41.9 GOP.  Again, not a wave.

Finally, a note on election analysis.  This is my 16th or 17th cycle working full time in Democratic politics.  I have seen a lot over those years.  Been on both sides of waves, lost and won a Presidential election.  Had lots of election night joy, and lots of heartbreak too.  What I've learned is that every election is unique, and none is like any other. There are no ironclad political rules, or immutable political physics.  That because something has happened before it doesn't mean it will happen again. That to understand an election you have to follow the data, not history, not wives tales and wise guys, but data. That's what I work so hard to do, every day.  And that data I am seeing suggests this is far more likely to be a competitive election than a wave. And frankly, given what has happened to the GOP, that shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone. 

But of course that can change.  Which is why you should keep coming back and reading our stuff.  You can catch me going more in depth about this analysis in two new pods – the Arizona based Light Beer Dark Money show, and Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf, EJ Dionne and Kavita Patel.  They are both well worth your time.

This analysis has been updated and expanded since it was first published.

Video: Hispanic Vote Discussion - New Polling, New Analysis (6/13/22)

On Monday, June 13th NDN hosted a discussion about the Hispanic vote with noted pollster, Fernand Amandi.  He reviewed new Future Majority polling of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.  You can watch the presentation and discussion here.  A memo summarizing the findings can be found here, and you can review more detailed data from the three states here.  Future Majority has also released a breakout of the data on abortion and the end of Roe, and it finds 60-70% among Hispanics in these three states for legal abortion and Democrats gaining votes if Roe were to end (which it has).

This article by the Nevada Independent provides a very thorough overview of the research.  The New York Times's Jazmine Ulloa cites the research in a new story about Nevada Senator Cortez Masto's re-election bid. 

At the end of Fernand's presentation of the polling, Simon reviewed some of the findings of his new analysis, The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party’s Hispanic Strategy.  It is important context for anyone wanting to learn more about the Hispanic/Latino vote in the US. 

Future Majority provided this summary of the memo: “Our research found that the Democrats’ brand is performing well among Latino voters in these three states, but the Republican brand is not. Our data suggests Democrats have the opportunity to replicate their strong 2018 and 2020 performance with Latinos in these states this year, strong showings which contributed to what were very good years for Democrats in all three states. As the Latino electorate has a higher share of new, younger and infrequent voters than the overall electorate, and thus is more prone to midterm drop-off, Democrats will only be assured of these potential promising outcomes with significant investment and strong engagement through their campaigns.”

We think this new polling, new NDN analysis and discussion will be of interest to anyone wanting to learn more about this vital part of the American electorate. 

Related Work from NDN

Analysis: The Southwest Has Become A Democratic Stronghold (2020)

In Florida Democrats Lost Ground With All Important Hispanic Voters  (2018)

Among "New Coalition" Voters in 2018, Dems Have Best Performance Ever (2018)

Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest (2017)

Trump Is Right To Be Worried About Arizona (And Texas Too) (2017)

The Strategic Context For The 2022 Elections Is Changing

The Strategic Context For the 2022 Elections Is Changing – Events, Memos, Pods

In June NDN will be focusing on what we think is a new strategic context for our politics and the 2022 elections.  Links to related materials and invitations to an initial set of events are below.  

The premise here is simple.  New events – Russia’s ongoing aggression, mass shootings, the end of Roe, a more complete understanding of MAGA’s attack on our political system – are together creating a new strategic framework or context for US politics now.  That new strategic context is giving Joe Biden and the Democrats the opportunity to reframe the economic conversation, something the White House began in earnest yesterday; and it will make it far more likely Democrats will be successful at labeling Republicans out of the mainstream, extreme, unfit.  While these new realities may not be showing up in polling yet, it is our belief that the election has fundamentally changed in the last few weeks, something that will become clearer to all in the coming days.  

Ron Brownstein makes a similar argument in a new CNN piece, "The Two Issues Which Could Disrupt the 2022 Elections." 

So come join us as we explore the changing political dynamic.  It is what we will be spending most of the next month looking at.  And perhaps the best way to connect to our current thinking is to listen to Simon’s remarks in this recent Deep State Radio podcast, and to read our political strategy memo, 3 Reasons Why 2022 Won’t Be 2010.  We look forward to engaging you in this important conversation.   

Friday, June 3rd – NDN Talks to Dr. Rob Shapiro About The Recovery, Inflation and Biden’s Plan – We are excited to welcome back our colleague Rob Shapiro for a discussion about Joe Biden's plans to keep the economy growing and lower inflation. He will be drawing from a series of essays he's written for the Washington Monthly in recent months, including his latest The Truth About Inflation.  Our discussion with Rob will be this Friday, June 3rd at noon ET.   RSVP here.

Join us, invite others - this event is free and open to all.

June 9th and 24th– With Democrats Things Get Better – We’ve scheduled two presentations of our deep dive into US politics over the past generation.  These presentations are free and open to all, so feel free to invite friends and colleagues.  The data in With Dems has been widely cited in recent months, including by the White House and other Democratic leaders.  Learn more about With Dems here, and please register by clicking through for our Thursday June 9th (1230pm ET) and Friday June 24th (1230pm ET).  

Related Memos and Essays

A New Global Moment Emerges - It's An Opportunity for Joe Biden to Lead - While still struggling to put COVID behind us, Russia's aggression is leading to rising energy costs and a now a global food crisis.  These daunting new challenges offer Joe Biden an extraordinary opportunity to lead. 

A Compelling '22 General Election Narrative May Have Emerged for Democrats - In recent weeks a strong possible 2022 narrative and frame has begun to emerge for Democrats - sell our accomplishments, define them as out of the mainstream, extreme - that may make the 2022 elections more competitive than anticipated. 

A New Center-Left Rises in the West to Counter Putin, Illiberalism - Center/center-left governments keep getting elected in the West.  It's possible we are seeing a powerful new political movement emerge as a response to the growing threat of illiberalism. 

May Jobs Report - Biden Boom Keeps Booming, 42m Dem Jobs - 4 times as many jobs have been created in Joe Biden's first 15 months than in Presidencies of the two Bushes and Trump combined.  Repeated Dem successes, repeated GOP failures must become better known in our politics. 

Video: With Democrats Things Get Better (5/13/22) - Check out the latest showing of our signature presentation, With Dems. It tries to tell the most important least understood story in American politics today - that when Dems are in power things get better.  W/Rs not so much. 

Memo: After Texas Roe Decision, Dems Must Lean Into GOP Radicalization - The Supreme Court's Texas Roe decision is so shocking and crazy that Democrats have no choice now to make the dangerous radicalization of the GOP central to the conversation they are having with the American people.  

Some Thoughts on Democrats and "Loudness" - In a new essay Simon offers 4 ideas for how Democrats can get louder this year and not always be playing defense in a very noisy and crowded information landscape. 

NDN’s Saliency Index 5 – Jobs/Economy, Inflation, Health Care, Climate Change Top Dem Concerns

NDN’s Saliency Index 5 – Jobs/Economy, Inflation, Health Care, Climate Change Top Dem Concerns

So here it is, our latest Saliency Index from data taken from the May 12th Navigator poll.  These are the results of their “top issue” question which asks respondents to choose 4 from a predetermined list.  NDN then creates modeled Dem and GOP electorates and runs the raw data through these models.  At a very top line this exercise shows how dramatically different the information universes of the two parties are right now.  Some notes on this data are below. See here for more on the methodology and to review our last full report. 

Inflation Continues To Be Far Less of a Concern Among Democrats – In our last Saliency Index report we offered a detailed explanation for why we keep seeing lower intensity around inflation among Dems.  The bottom line is that the party of inflation that has really spiked has been gas prices, and it is very possible that rural and exurban voters who drive more and use more gas – and are much more likely to be Republican – are experiencing inflation much more intensely than those who use less gas.  If you drive a lot inflation has been crushing, and is a major economic event.  If you don’t drive a lot, or at all, inflation has actually been far less of an economic event in your life as up until a few months ago real wages were positive for all workers – meaning the typical American was staying ahead of inflation.  Even today, with inflation rising due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, our colleague Rob Shapiro finds that real wages remain in positive territory for full time workers.  So inflation has been more acute for those who drive a lot and part time workers.  For everyone else they are keeping up, regardless of how they feel and understand it.  

Finally, in older Navigator polling, Democratic voters overwhelming blamed inflation on COVID and not Joe Biden’s economic policies.  It is just true that COVID and Russia are now the primary causes of the inflation we are experiencing today.  So it is possible that inflation is less salient in the Democratic electorate for they do not see it as something caused by our government, which of course is a fair read of what is actually happening right now.  Republicans may be both feeling inflation more intensely than Dems, and of course right wing media has focused the blame on Biden rather than COVID, Russia and MBS, where much of the blame actually belongs.  

Abortion and Education seem to be secondary concerns for Republican voters - This continues to be a surprise, and challenges conventional wisdom in DC about how the election is going to be fought out in the months ahead.  GOP has very high levels of intensity around the economy and inflation right now, with the basket of security and safety issues – immigration, national security, crime – making up a clear second tier.  

Abortion is rising as an issue of concern for Democrats, Climate Continues To Be A Top Issue, COVID Has Receded – Not surprisingly we’ve seen significant movement on the abortion issue in recent weeks, and of note to Democratic operatives climate remains a very important issue to our voters.  Our guess is that the continued saliency of climate is being driven by younger voters.  Not also has much COVID has receded.  Economic issues are once again the top battleground in 2022.  

More data from May 12th - This is another cut on the data from May 12th.  Our modeled Dem electorate is 80% Dem, 15% independent, 5% R.  The modeled R is 80% R, 15% independent, 5% Dem.  Again, this is an exercise, and the modeled electorate in every state and district is unique.  

A New Center-Left Rises in the West to Counter Putin, Illiberalism

The Center-Left Rises in the West - Australia’s ousting of a conservative government on Saturday leads us to return to a theme we first wrote about a few weeks ago – the center-right/far-right has been repeatedly losing elections and steadily losing influence in the West.  It’s our belief that the 2018 Putin-Trump Summit in Helsinki, and Trump’s subsequent very public illiberalism, helped waken Western voters to the threat of Trumpism/Putinism, and they have been consistently voting in center/center-left governments ever since.  This year we’ve seen the right defeated in Australia, France, Germany and Slovenia, and there are now center/center-left governments in power in Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the US.  In the UK Labour/Lib Dems/Greens lead the 3 right parties in current polling by 57-37.  The right is more out of power today in the West than it has been in a very long time.  

The rejection of the American right, MAGA, has been arguably the central driver of American politics in the last 3 elections.  Since Trump became the Republican nominee, the average Democratic electoral margin has been 5 points.  Democrats won the last two elections by 8.6 and 4.4 points in very high turnout elections.  There is a clear anti-MAGA majority in the US today, and more people have voted against MAGA than any other political movement in our history.  

For Americans the threat of the global and domestic far right to our way of life is far more acute today than it was in November of 2020.  We’ve seen an unprecedented attack our democracy itself, one which is ongoing and not has been renounced by GOP leaders; Putin has become of history’s great butchers and is working to end the American-led global order; and now a compromised Supreme Court’s far-right faction has begun to take away long-held American rights and liberties.  

As we discussed last week, Joe Biden is successfully reinvigorating and rallying the West to counter Russia’s rancid aggression.  Part of the reason why this anti-Putin coalition has been so successful is that many of the governments in the coalition were elected explicitly to counter the far-right’s rising threat, and thus share a common political orientation. This new anti-right, anti-Putin, anti-MAGA center/center-left political movement in the West is now it’s most powerful political force.  And it’s why I remain optimistic about the fall elections.  People here understand the threat MAGA poses to all of us.  They have voted against it twice in record numbers.  As Joe Biden is rallying the world to counter the threat, he needs to once again rally the anti-MAGA majority there in the US to win another election.  For a defeat for Democrats this fall may not just return extremists to power here, it could begin to fracture the global coalition countering Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere.

And if there is any doubt that a GOP Congressional majority could fracture the anti-Putin coalition let’s remember where CPAC, one of the GOP’s most important organizations, has been these last few days.  In Hungary, making common cause with Victor Orban, who recently described Zelenskyy as his “enemy.” 

Democracy, the West, authoritarianism are all on the ballot once again here in America this fall. 

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