NDN Blog

Video: Yes, Americans Are Better Off - A Conversation with Rob Shapiro

On Friday, September 23rd we sat down with our friend and colleague Rob Shapiro for a discussion  of his compelling new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

You can watch the conversation with Rob here.  The core of what we discussed is how Democrats need to close with a very strong argument that with them in power once again - despite COVID, an insurrection, supply chain disruptions, Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the global inflation it brought - things have gotten better for the American people.  As we wrote in a recent piece on the September jobs report we think we have a very strong case to make.  Consider that under Biden we've seen:

- 5 times as many jobs as last 3 GOP POTUS COMBINED

- Lowest poverty, uninsured rates in US history, lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII

- Wage gains, new business starts at elevated/record levels

- twice as many job openings as unemployed people - a record

- Deficit plummeting, gas prices coming way down

- the passage of bills which are making historic investments in infrastructure, microchips, clean technology and health care which will create growth and jobs for decades to come

We are better off.  Now we need to go sell it.  An excerpt from Rob's terrific analysis:

"In June 2022, the average working American earned $74,643 in wages and salaries, compared to $74,624 in January 2021 and $70,274 in February 2020. Even with 9.5 million more people working, the average working person earned as much in June, after inflation, as when Biden took office. And compared to just before the pandemic, when employment was comparable to today, the average person earns 6.2 percent even after inflation. The answer to Reagan’s question is “Yes” on wages and salaries as well as jobs, a remarkable achievement given the pandemic.

Americans are also significantly wealthier than before Biden took office. The pandemic and the jobs boom were primarily responsible. As the Omicron variant spread, government checks enabled more savings and increased spending that helped drive up employment. According to the Federal Reserve, after inflation the net assets of Americans increased by nearly $2 trillion from the first quarter of 2021—when Biden took office—to the first quarter of 2022. (We exclude the top 1 percent because their assets are notoriously hard to measure.)  

And it’s not the typical case of the rich getting richer. The fastest growth in net assets occurred among low- and moderate-income households. From the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the inflation-adjusted wealth of households in the lowest income quintile jumped 15.2 percent and just 0.8 percent for those in the top income quintile (again, excluding the top 1 percent)."

Video: Yes, Americans Are Better Off - A Conversation with Rob Shapiro (9/23/22)

On Friday, September 23rd we sat down with our friend and colleague Rob Shapiro for a discussion  of his compelling new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

You can watch the conversation with Rob here.  The core of what we discussed is how Democrats need to close with a very strong argument that with them in power once again - despite COVID, an insurrection, supply chain disruptions, Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the global inflation it brought - things have gotten better for the American people.  As we wrote in a recent piece on the September jobs report we think we have a very strong case to make.  Consider that under Biden we've seen:

- 5 times as many jobs as last 3 GOP POTUS COMBINED

- Lowest poverty, uninsured rates in US history, lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII

- Wage gains, new business starts at elevated/record levels

- twice as many job openings as unemployed people - a record

- Deficit plummeting, gas prices coming way down

- the passage of bills which are making historic investments in infrastructure, microchips, clean technology and health care which will create growth and jobs for decades to come

We are better off.  Now we need to go sell it.  An excerpt from Rob's terrific analysis:

"In June 2022, the average working American earned $74,643 in wages and salaries, compared to $74,624 in January 2021 and $70,274 in February 2020. Even with 9.5 million more people working, the average working person earned as much in June, after inflation, as when Biden took office. And compared to just before the pandemic, when employment was comparable to today, the average person earns 6.2 percent even after inflation. The answer to Reagan’s question is “Yes” on wages and salaries as well as jobs, a remarkable achievement given the pandemic.

Americans are also significantly wealthier than before Biden took office. The pandemic and the jobs boom were primarily responsible. As the Omicron variant spread, government checks enabled more savings and increased spending that helped drive up employment. According to the Federal Reserve, after inflation the net assets of Americans increased by nearly $2 trillion from the first quarter of 2021—when Biden took office—to the first quarter of 2022. (We exclude the top 1 percent because their assets are notoriously hard to measure.)  

And it’s not the typical case of the rich getting richer. The fastest growth in net assets occurred among low- and moderate-income households. From the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the inflation-adjusted wealth of households in the lowest income quintile jumped 15.2 percent and just 0.8 percent for those in the top income quintile (again, excluding the top 1 percent)."

Video: Tom Bonier on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe (9/14/22)

On Wed, September 14th we hosted TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier for a timely discussion about the big surge in women voting and registering to vote post Roe.  Tom has been at the forefront of gathering data from across the country about what may be a hugely important development in the 2022 elections, something he wrote about in this NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

You can watch our conversation here

As for some of the things we reference in the conversation, you can find NDN's core 2022 election here, and a video of our "New, Bluer Election" briefing here

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U.

Invite: Sept 23rd - Rob Shapiro: "Yes, Americans Are Better Off"

This week we are bringing our colleague Rob Shapiro back to for a discussion of his compelling his new Washington Monthly article, “Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

This will be a good one – please join us and feel free to invite others.  Biden’s economic strategy has been far more successful than is understood and Rob will walk us through what we know today.  Be sure to review NDN's recent deep dive on the September jobs report and our transition from strong recovery to strong expansion which is now underway. 

Our discussion will be live over Zoom at 1pm ET on Friday, September 23rd.  A video of the event will be posted later Friday afternoon.  Please RSVP here and we look forward to seeing you next week!

 

 

Video: NDN's New, Bluer Election Presentation (9/8/22)

For the past several months we've taken our core election analysis and put it into a 25 minute video presentation called it's a "New, Bluer Election."  We are pleased to share a newly updated showing recorded on Thursday, September 8th.  You can watch it here, and review our comprehensive analysis of the election here

Feel free to share this presentation with others.  And if you have a group of at least 100 people I am open to presenting it to your group, schedule allowing.  Just DM me Twitter at @SimonWDC and we can try to get it scheduled.  It is newly updated with each showing. 

Be sure to join us this Wed, Sept 14th at 1230pm ET for a discussion with Tom Bonier who has release really compelling research showing a big surge of women registering to vote, voting and requesting vote by mail ballots post Roe.  You can RSVP here

And if you like our election presentation we think you will like what's been our primary political presentation over the past few years, With Democrats Things Get Better.  Learn more, watch here.  We promise you won't be disapointed. 

Invite: Sept 14th - Tom Bonior on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe

Come join us on Monday, September 14th at 12:30pm ET for a timely political discussion with Dem strategist and data guy Tom Bonier, who will be discussing his new NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

Tom has crunched the numbers and we are seeing a huge surge in women voting and registering in the days after Roe ended and the GOP enacted extremist abortion restrictions across the US.

In what is sure to be a lively session he will discuss what it all means for 2022 and beyond.  You can RSVP here.  Feel free to invite others - all are welcome.  Note that this is a new day and time - Wed, September 14th 12:30pm. 

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U. Local 500.

Join us - this will be a good one!

Video: Tom Bonier on The Surge of Women Voting/Registering Post-Roe (9/14/22)

On Wed, September 14th we hosted TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier for a timely discussion about the big surge in women voting and registering to vote post Roe.  Tom has been at the forefront of gathering data from across the country about what may be a hugely important development in the 2022 elections, something he wrote about in this NYTimes op-ed, "Women Are So Fired Up To Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It."

You can watch our conversation here

As for some of the things we reference in the conversation, you can find NDN's core 2022 election here, and a video of our "New, Bluer Election" briefing here

Our friend Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the C.E.O. of TargetSmart, a data and polling firm. He teaches political science at Howard University and is a member of S.E.I.U.

Local 500.

Invite: NDN Election Briefings - Sept 8th and 9th

To talk about the many encouraging developments for Democrats in the 2022 election we’ve put together two briefings for you in the coming week. The briefings, conducted over Zoom, are:

Thursday, September 8th, 8pm ET – RSVP Here

Friday, September 9th, Noon ET - RSVP Here

These briefings are free and open to all so you are welcome to invite friends and colleagues.  Due to technical issues last week we were not able to record our Friday briefing as promised - sorry for the inconvenience!

To learn more about our take on the 2022 elections check out this new thread and our big analysis, “Dems Are Closing Strong, Republicans Are Closing As Ugly As Ugly As It Gets.”  You can also find our work and insights cited in the press and podcasts below. 

To a new, bluer election - Simon

Further Reading, Media Citations

In November of 2021, we published a memo, Memo: 3 Reasons Why 2022 Won’t Be 2010, that posited the GOP's embrace of MAGA would make it likely that 2022 would not be a traditional midterm and Democrats could end up overperforming expectations. In May we predicted that the combination of a return of mass shootings, the ending of Roe, and the fallout from the Jan 6th Committee would reawaken the anti-MAGA majority and make this election much closer than many thought possible.  In mid-June, we released an election analysis which argued we were already looking at a competitive not a wave election - that there were signs of what we call the MAGA hangover (GOP underperformance) even before Roe ended.  Then Roe ended, and NDN has been at the national forefront of charting what is now clearly a new, bluer election.    

We’ve put together our electoral work over the past few months into a 20 minute data-filled presentation, “A New, Bluer Election.”  You can watch it here.  We also rolled out an updated version of With Democrats Things Get Better, our in-depth look at how the two US parties have fared over the past 30 years.  You can learn more and watch here.   On Tuesday, Aug 9th we recorded an updated version of our core presentation for Swing Left.  You can watch here, beginning at minute 12 or so. 

In recent weeks our election analysis has been cited in articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The Bulwark, Peter Weber in The Week, Dick Polman in his nationally syndicated column, Jim Puzzanghera in the Boston Globe and Kiran Stacey in the Financial Times.  I've also hit the pod and radio circuit, discussing of our electoral thesis with Matt Lewis on his podcast, Ian Masters for his radio show/podcast, a new episode of That Trippi Show our good friend Joe Trippi, David Catanese's Too Close to CallHotMics with Maria Cardona and Alice Stewart and the Start Me Up pod with Kimberley Johnson.  On Thursday, August 4th I joined Mehdi Hasan's show on Peacock for a spirited discussion of the 2022 elections. 

front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein gives our big argument serious consideration in a comprehensive CNN analysis.  Greg Sargent devotes a whole column to our analysis, "Meet the Lonely Democrat Who Thinks His Party Can Win."  This one is a particularly good read. 

Kristian Ramos has a new take in Salon that includes our work, and comes down where we come down - time for Dems to go on offense now.  I did a long sit down with Jonathan Alter for his Old Goats substack - was a deep and rich conversation about this election and the state of our politics today.  Check it out.  Nicole Narea does a great treatment of our concept of "The MAGA hangover" in a new Vox piece and the FT's Courtney Weaver cites us on the struggles of GOP candidates across the country.  Politico's Max Tani and Alex Thompson do a deep dive on our analysis in a fun new piece, "Meet The Most Optimistic Dem Online."  Susan Glasser gives our 2022 election take serious consideration in a new New Yorker essay, "Is There A Serious Case for A Non-Awful Election for Democrats This Fall?"  Jonathan Weisman features some of our insights in a New York Times article about Dem chances for taking the House.  EJ Dionne quotes us in a new Washington Post essay about Democratic optimism post the NY House specials.  Blake Hounshell features our analysis in a New York Times article, "Republicans in Disarray."

And we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!

Analysis: Dems w/2.4 Point Lead in 17 Polls - It's A Competitive Not A Wave Election

Updated on 7/20 - Over the past month we’ve been arguing that publicly available data suggested we were looking at a competitive not a wave election. 

For this week’s election update we averaged the Congressional Generic results of 14 independent polls taken since Roe ended on June 24th, and found Democrats leading 44.1% to 41.7, +2.4 Dem.  That’s a 4-5 point shift from where the election was a month ago.

Our current 2022 election toplines: 

  • The election has moved 4-5 pts towards the Democrats, GOP brand has taken big hit
  • The anti-MAGA majority has been awakened
  • The Senate is now leaning Dem, NE House Special was encouraging for Dems
  • The landscape is likely to get worse for GOP

In May we predicted that the combination of a return of mass shootings, the ending of Roe and the fallout from the Jan 6th Committee would reawaken the anti-MAGA majority and make this election much closer than many thought possible.  In Mid June we released an election analysis which argued we were already looking at a competitive not a wave election.  Then Roe ended, and NDN has been at the national forefront of charting what is now clearly a new, bluer election.    

We’ve put together our electoral work over the past few months into a 20 minute data-filled presentation, “A New, Bluer Election.”  You can watch it here.  We also rolled out an updated version of With Democrats Things Get Better, our in-depth look at how the two US parties have fared over the past 30 years.  You can learn more and watch here.  

In recent weeks our election has analysis has been cited in articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The Bulwark and Peter Weber in The Week. Simon has done two in-depth discussions of our electoral thesis with Matt Lewis on his podcast and with Ian Masters for his radio show/podcast.  Joe Trippi discusses our analysis in his newest That Trippi Show podcast and we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!

A front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein also gives our big argument serious consideration in a new and comprehensive CNN analysis.  Greg Sargent devotes a whole column to our analysis, "Meet the Lonely Democrat Who Thinks His Party Can Win."  This one is a particularly good read.  Kristian Ramos has a new take in Salon that includes our work, and comes down where we come down - time for Dems to go on offense now. 

Importantly, two of country’s most influential election analysts, Nate Cohn of the NYTimes and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, have joined this may be a competitive election after all camp.  Nate Silver wrote “Instead, as voters have gathered more information about the race, they have drawn more of a distinction between how they feel about Biden and what they'd like to see happen in Congress. Maybe this trend will reverse itself. But the "fundamentalists"- the analysts who think the races for Congress are predictable based on presidential approval and other baseline conditions - have been wrong so far.”

As I discuss in the Greg Sargent column, another big piece of the strategic context for the 2022 election – the economy and inflation – has started to go through a profound and potentially electorally significant change.  Gas prices have dropped 45 cents in the past month and are dropping now 2-3 cents a day, every day.  This means that the huge psychological and economic effects of rising prices will certainly ease in the coming months.  It gives the Democrats an opening to broaden out the economic conversation to include their achievements – very strong recovery, big job gains, record new businesses formed, historically low uninsured/unemployment rates, infrastructure investments, etc.  And it will create more room for Democratic candidates to make the indictment of their opponents as too extreme, too MAGA.  As we’ve been saying, opposition to MAGA has been the driving force of the last two elections, and with mass shootings, the end of Roe and fanatical abortion restrictions, a radicalized Supreme Court, extremist/terrible candidates, an unfolding criminal conspiracy involving dozens of top Republican officials to overturn an election it is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election as well.  When the Republicans chose to run towards a politics the country had just rejected in record numbers twice, the GOP made the political physics of this election different from a traditional midterm.  It’s our view that as of today the Senate is likely to stay in Democratic hands; a pickup of a 1-2-3 Senate seats by Dems not impossible; and Democrats are likely to outperform expectations in the House now.  Will it be enough for Democrats to keep the House? We will see.  

The 14 Independent Polls Rated A/B from 538, Democrat/Republican

Economist/YouGov           43-40

Politico/Morn Cons           45-41

CNBC/Hart                       42-44

Big Village                         45-41

Yahoo/YouGov                  43-39

Economist/YouGov           43-40

NYT/Siena                        41-40

Politico/Morn Cons           46-42

Reuters/Ipsos                   34-35

YouGov/Economist           43-40

Big Village                        47-42

Harvard/Harris                  50-50

Emerson                           43-46

YouGov/Yahoo                 45-38

Monmouth                        46-48

Politico/Morn Cons           45-42

NPR/Marist                       48-41

For the purposes of this analysis, we do not include 5 partisan Republican polls, which are not independent polls and which, incredibly, show the GOP leading by 6.4 pts.. It is our guess that GOP pollsters, even those well intentioned, will struggle for a while to understand the very significant changes happening inside the Democratic electorate.  The likely explanation for how these polls could be 9-10 points off from 17 highly rated 538 polls is that they are holding on to a pre-Roe likely voter screen which has lower participation rates for Democrats.  We know from months of polling that ending Roe would significantly change voter intensity inside the Democratic electorate, and failure to account for and understand these changes by a pro-life party which has far fewer women and young people in its coalition is not something that should surprise anyone.  Republican after Republican commentator has said these last few weeks changes nothing.  They are clearly wrong, and these polls are also clearly wrong.

It is a new, bluer election. 

 

Video: A New, Bluer Election - A Presentation About The Changing National Political Landscape

This a recording of Simon's new presentation from July 8th about the new, bluer political landscape that has emerged in the last few weeks.  The core presentation takes about 20 minutes.  Feel free to stay for the Q and A. 

This new presentation draws heavily from our most recent comprehensive political analysis, which you can find here.  The top takeaways:

  • We are looking at a competitive election now, not a wave
  • The race has shifted 3-5 points towards the Dems, and the GOP brand has taken a huge hit.  The anti-MAGA majority has awakened
  • The Senate is likely to stay Democratic, and a recent House special was encouraging for Democrats
  • The national political landscape is likely to get worse for Republicans

We are pleased elements of this work have been cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The Bulwark and Peter Weber in The Week. Simon has done two indepth discussions of our thesis and the 2022 election - with Matt Lewis on his podcast and with Ian Masters for his radio show/podcast.  Joe Trippi discusses our analysis in his podcast, That Trippi Show, and we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!

A new front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein gives our political thesis serious consideration in a new and comphrensive CNN analysis.

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