NDN Blog

Faced with likely defeat in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation vote, US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton has resigned his post.  Bolton was never able to get enough votes in committee to be considered by the full Senate and only became Ambassador to the UN when President Bush circumvented Congress with a recess appointment in August 2005.

Bush Administration foreign policy has been defined by unrivaled arrogance, but even so, the Bolton appointment definitely deserves a spot on the greatest hits list.  The appointment was held up beacuse Bolton is openly opposed to the UN, and because of unsettled allegations that he fudged intelligence on Iraq and WMDs, as the top anti-proliferation official at the State Department.  The Bush Administration steadfastly refused to release documents related to Bolton's WMD intelligence work, and Bolton never really renounced his opposition to the UN. 

Bolton joins the list of people who have recently left top posts at the State Department (Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick and State Department Counselor Philip Zelikow prominent among them), leaving the Bush Administration diplomatic team understaffed in their stewardship of a failed foreign policy agenda.

Our friends over at the Center for American Progress have released a legislative plan for the new Democratic Congress that aims to pick up where Nancy Pelosi's First 100 Hours plan leaves off:

The Center for American Progress Action Fund offers our recommendation for new ideas and policies that the 110th Congress should take on and enact before the August recess, after the first 100 hours. In the weeks and months after those first hours, Congress will have an opportunity to demonstrate progress on fixing the problems Americans face. Indeed, we argue that instead of following the traditional Congressional course of an initial burst of activity followed by weeks and months of less action, the Congressional leadership can show the American people it continues to work to meet their needs by continually passing legislation in the spring and summer.

CAP's First 100 Days' Policy Agenda includes priorities for foreign and domestic policy.  While NDN does not agree with the CAP plan for an 18-month phased withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, they do have a number of other  innovative and important proposals, such as demanding an updated, unbiased National Intelligence Estimate, assigning a special Inspector General to weed out mismanagement and corruption in Iraq and Afghanistan security and reconstruction projects and the complete restoration of military equipment damaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, in order to bring the armed forces up to full readiness.

On the domestic policy side, their are compelling arguments for expansion of the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit, plans to reward good teachers and encourage them to teach in high-need areas, targeting of specific corporate subsidies that are overdue for elimination, creation of a universal 401(k) system, public health reform, a more aggressive approach to renewable energy and (dear to our hearts here at NDN) comprehensive immigration reform.

By now, it shouldn't be a surprise that the myth that progressives don't have any ideas, only criticism, is just that, a myth.  CAP's plan joins other ideas and proposals coming out of an energized progressive movement.  And should give us all confidence that the 110th Congress, working closely with its progressive allies off the Hill, is going to be one we can actually be proud of.   

In the midst of a well-earned vacation to Paris with his family, NDN HSC Director Joe Garcia found himself in a situation straight out of a Hollywood action blockbuster.  When a man wielding a fake gun briefly took a floor of the Miami Herald building hostage, one of his first calls was to Joe Garcia:

Varela also called Joe Garcia, a prominent exile and friend who was in Paris on vacation. Garcia missed the call but called back and heard him say: ``I'm in control here now. I'm in charge of El Nuevo Herald.''

Garcia thought it was a joke.

''I laughed, and I told him in jest that it was never a good place to be at The Herald,'' Garcia said. ``And then he hung up.''

Growing worried, Garcia later called Fiedler, Mayor Diaz and Chief Timoney.

Thankfully, the situation ended peacefully with nobody getting hurt.  And our man in Miami is a hero (with a healthy sense of humor) once again.

Today's (free online) WSJ article on lobbying reform goes beyond the laundry list of restrictions: meals, corporate jet use, former members on the floor during votes, trips to Scotland to research golf and globalization, etc and looks at the broader question of how will these new rules be enforced?

The current system of self-policing through the House and Senate Ethics Committees is strained if not broken.  Beginning in the mid-1990s there was a truce period in which neither Democrats nor Republicans were investigated for potential ethics violations.  The truce made Congress an investigation-free zone for years, until the Delay-Abramoff scandal became too big to ignore.

Is it hoping for too much to think that the ethics committees will take a more robust stance in this new Congress and enforce the new and the old rules?  Or, is it time for an "Independent Office of Public Integrity" empowered to investigate members of Congress, as well as regulate lobbying.  As you would expect, Congress is moving very slowly towards creating an oversight body with jurisdiction over, well, Congress:

House and Senate leaders are mulling creating an office to monitor lobbyists' disclosure reports, or enhancing the powers of existing offices to take on that job.

But so far, neither the House nor the Senate proposal would allow independent scrutiny of the actions of lawmakers themselves. The job of investigating and disciplining them would remain in the Senate and House ethics committees...

...Ms. Pelosi earlier this year proposed enhancing the powers of Congress's inspector general's office to handle disclosure reports by lobbyists. But it didn't extend that office's jurisdiction to ethics allegations against members of Congress. Aides say she is now considering backing the idea of a stronger independent office.

True to form, the outgoing 109th Congress is planning on adjourning its lame-duck session early and punting almost $500 billion dollars in unfinished spending bills to the Democratic led 110th Congress in the New Year.  Josh Marshall makes a half-serious argument that these responsibility-shirking GOPers should have their pay garnered for failing to complete the minimum requirements of their job, passing and paying for the budget.

 As we have come to expect from the Republican leadership, the reasons behind this decision are about politics and not about serving the American people.  Apparently Republicans have finally become embarrassed about the massive expansion in pork that has occurred under their watch.  Senator Jim DeMint used procedural delays to end budget negotiations in the Senate, leaving his spokesman to explain that "The last thing Republicans need is an end-of-Congress spending spree as our last parting shot as we walk out the door."

The White House wanted Congress to pass the spending bills in the lame duck session, and this decision to leave town with the work undone is another sign of the President's weakening political position.Republicans are also hoping that Democrats will be unable to pass popular elements of their "First 100 Hours" plan right away, because they have to deal with the leftover spending bills. 

The consequences of this dereliction of duty include cuts in reimbursements to Doctors under Medicare that will take effect January 1, 2007. 

No wonder people have such a low opinion of this Congress.  Unlike ordinary Americans, these outgoing Republican Congressional leaders don't even try to pay/pass the bills anywhere close to on time.

Massive electoral defeat and record low poll numbers aren't the only signposts of how far the Bush Administration has fallen.  Things have gotten so bad that Secretary of Rice can't convince anyone to take the prestigious position of Deputy Secretary of State, the number two post in the State Department previously held by Robert Zoellick, who left to work for Goldman Sachs.  It's hard to blame the people who have turned Rice down already.  Would you want to sit through a Senate confirmation hearing and provide explanations for the failed Bush foreign policy?  The Washington Wire reports:

Among those who have said no are Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt and Gen. James Jones, former Marine Corps commander and now head the United States European Command.

There is now talk that Rice is reaching out to Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, with some suggesting that the offer has been sweetened with a promise to give Negroponte the top job should Rice leave the State Department before the end of the administration.

It looks like Webb's small lead over Senator Allen will result in a recount.  Here are the specifics about recounts in Virginia 

VA has no automatic recounts.

  * Only losing candidate can ask for a recount, and only if margin is

      1% or less of votes cast for those two candidates.

  * If margin is .5% or less, OR, and/or if candidate who requests

      recount wins, the counties and cities involved in the recount pay

      the costs.

  * Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount has to pay the

      costs

Recounts are *expensive* -- and the less obvious costs include

maintaining a campaign's legal/admin/communication/volunteer-coordination teams for weeks after Election Day.

Here's information from a chart that GOP insiders...are using as a cheat sheet:

Eight in the most likely gone category: PA-7, Weldon, OH-18, Ney open, IN-8, Hostettler, CO-7 Beauprez open, AZ-8, Kolbe open, NY-24, Boehlert open, PA-10, Sherwood, CT-4, Shays.

Eight in the expect to lose most of these unless something changes: TX-22, DeLay open, NC-11, Taylor (chart notes unfavorable trend in this race), IN-9, Sodrel, IN-2, Chocola (chart notes a favorable trend), FL-16, Foley open, OH-15, Pryce, PA-6, Gerlach, NH-2, Bass (unfavorable trend).

Twenty in the true toss-up category: IA-1, NY-20, WY, WI-8 (favorable trend), WA-8, VA-2, PA-8, NY-26 (favorable trend), NM-1, IL-6, FL-13, CA-50, CA-11, OH-1, ID-1, NY-25, MN-1, CO-5, OH-2, CA-4.

That's 36 seats total. In the first category, unfavorable trends are noted in 7 of the 8 races (AZ-8 is the only exception). In the third category, 13 out of the 30 races have unfavorable trends.

One of the themes that is likely to be discussed over the next few days is the rise of Democrats in the West.  Progressive with a libretarian streak, these Democrats are rapidly breaking the Republican hold on the West, and that red-to-blue trend should continue tonight, as reported by the Boston Globe: 

...demographic changes have shifted the political landscape in a region that was long considered rock-red Republican. 

Western Democrats pointed to House races and statewide races in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and even Wyoming that are unexpectedly competitive, given the GOP's traditional strength in the region. 

President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been forced to make appearances for candidates in four Western states where GOP victories were considered almost assured earlier this year. Denver is a finalist to host the 2008 Democratic National Convention, and Western lawmakers believe the Mile-High City will win the competition if Colorado elects a Democratic governor today. 

"Colorado is definitely moving from a red state to a short stop at purple, and it's conceivably going to be a blue state" after today's elections, said Floyd Ciruli , an independent pollster based in Denver. Demographic changes and frustration over the war in Iraq "are all contributing to what looks like a really historic transformation here."

Sorry I couldn't come up with a Z word.  But If you're getting tired of pacing and biting your nails waiting for election returns, here are some of the political ads that stood out this year.  Also make sure to read James Crabtree's picks in the Guardian. 

It's been a landmark year in political advertising, with new approaches taken to breaking through the media clutter and connecting to voters.  Sure, there were plenty of grainy attack ads that made the usual distortions and took words and votes out of context.  There were also soft-focus bio spots with uplifting music that showed candidates with any combination of children/men in hard hats/senior citizens /their families, etc.  But what made this cycle of political advertising stand out was the new wave of political ads that Simon described as "more real, more intimate, more authentic."

Here is my personal and incomplete (especially since it barely touches on the rise of YouTube and viral video) list of some of the best, worst and most original ads of 2006:

Jon Tester is Montana, from his haircut to his boots.  And his early ad "Haircut" made that very clear.  Republicans hit back immediately, but the MDP's response to the response was definitive and effective.

Elliot Spitzer (up by dozens of points in the polls) made the obvious choice to run a positive campaign.

Bill Richardson also faces token opposition, but he went in a little zanier direction. 

I really enjoyed Arkansas Gubernatorial candidate Mike Beebe's first two campaign ads, and anyone who thinks Democrats can't win in the South should watch them.  The first has Beebe talking into the camera about growing up in a single parent home.  The connection between his mom waiting tables and the need for a raise in the minimum wage is heartfelt, convincing and puts him on the side of the little guy.  He follows that by calling for the elimination of the highly regressive grocery tax, which is both good policy and a way to insulate himself against charges of being a high-tax DemocratThe second Beebe ad has the best soundtrack of finger-pickin' bluegrass guitar this cycle.  Maybe it's the only ad with bluegrass music this cycle, but it works, with Beebe again looking straight into the camera and talking about his support for gun rights. 

In Massachusetts, independent candidate Christy Mihos briefly ran an ad that provided a unique explanation for the many problems with the Big Dig.  Watch it and you'll see why it only ran after 10:00pm. 

Republican Kerry Healy in MA took a page from the Lee Atwater handbook and ran a really despicable ad intended to scare Bay Staters into not voting for Deval Patrick.  Maybe her team didn't realize that while the "Willie Horton" ads may have contributed to Michael Dukakis' defeat in 1988, he still won Massachusetts. 

In Tennessee, Harold Ford defined himself before his opponent could with an ad on faith.  The RNC responded with the now infamous "Call Me" ad.  Watch it and decide if the obvious race-baiting was even the most effective part of the ad.  If nothing else, "Call Me" further tarred Ken Mehlman's reputation, since just a year ago he apologized for the Republican Southern strategy and promised an end to racial politics.  He also told Tim Russert that as RNC chair he had no control over the ad and could not pull it.  That gives Ken Mehlman the trifecta of lying, being hypocritical and straining credulity.  His reward: a hilarious spoof on the “Call Me” ad, referencing the rumors about his sexuality.

Michael Steele's "Puppy" ad in Maryland was one of the most creative of the year and helped him reinvent himself as an independent candidate.  We'll know how effective the Democratic response was sometime tonight.

Desperate Republicans like Colorado Congressional candidate Rick O’Donnell tried to make illegal immigration a campaign issue.  For more on how demonizing Hispanics worked out, visit www.immigration2006.org.

The Republican Party made one final attempt to use the scare tactics of '02 and '04 in this election with their ticking time bomb ad.

But the most powerful ads didn't come from party committees or candidates; they came form people whose lives are directly affected by the actions of our leaders in Washington.  Michael J. Fox did filmed moving ads in support of candidates who support stem cell research.  And there were responses in MO and MD.  And a new group called Vote Vets filmed ads calling our members or Congress for not providing our soldiers in Iraq with life saving body armor.