Analysis: Biden running strong, the Hispanic vote, Senate leans Dem, more
Analysis – Biden running strong, a look at Hispanic voters, Senate leans Dem, more
Every Thursday or Friday NDN publishes its Poll Roundup, a deep dive into recent polling and political trends. You can sign up to receive it each week and feel free to review previous editions too. NDN is also now holding in depth discussions about the 2020 Election every Wednesday at 2pm ET – join us and feel free to invite others too.
Top line– the basic contours of the race haven’t changed since last week’s Poll Roundup. Biden has a large, sturdy lead, is strong in the battlegrounds, and Dems have an advantage in the Senate.
We’ve entered a new phase in the general election. The Biden campaign has started rolling out more state and demographic specific media, and in-person voting has begun. Democrats continue to put up impressive fundraising numbers, and will likely outspend the GOP in the closing days. The debates are coming – Sept 29, Oct 7, 15, 22 – and Trump’s extraordinary efforts to cheat/manipulate show no sign of abating. With FEC reports coming out in a few days we will also learn a lot more about the financial health of the Trump campaign – something that could matter a great deal this fall.
Biden’s emerging strength in the battleground states perhaps is the most important electoral development this week. He is at or almost at 50% in states equaling 273 electoral votes, including MI, MN, NH, PA and WI. He also leads in AZ, FL, ME-2, NC and NV, and is within 1-2 points in GA, IA, OH and TX. Statistically at this point we are closer to Biden winning all of these states then we are Trump making the race competitive. The campaigns are both on the air in AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA, WI – read this CNN analysis to get an in-depth look at what’s happening with campaign ads and state/demo targeting. Continued strong polling from Arizona this week for the Democrats remains a very significant development in the campaign. if Arizona slips away, Trump has to flip at least 2 of MI, MN, NH, PA, WI – all states Biden is far ahead in, and at or over 50.
Hispanics– In a new thread Simon takes an in-depth look at recent polling with Hispanics, and doesn’t find some of the weakness we’ve been hearing about. He characterizes it more as “not yet realized opportunity.” In new high quality polls this week in AZ and FL Biden is matching Clinton’s 2016 numbers, which is a problem for Trump – bigger Hispanic electorates in these and other states means for Trump to prevent Dems from gaining votes he actually has to INCREASE his share not just hold. There just isn’t any evidence this is happening anywhere. There is some data suggestion Biden underperformance wit Hispanics and more broadly in Nevada, which is why I think the campaign has gone up on the air in recent weeks.
Finally, given Trump’s record, I think almost two months of heavy engagement by the Biden campaign with Hispanic voters could do a lot of damage to Trump and get Biden up over Clinton’s strong 2016 showing with Hispanics everywhere. Why we view the current state of Biden and Hispanics as one of unrealized opportunities, and not in any way a weakness or problem.
Monday update - A new NBC/Telemundo poll has Biden beating Trump with Hispanics 62-26, 36 points. In 2016 Clinton won them 66-28, 38 points. It's another sign that Biden is holding his own here, and yet another poll showing Trump BELOW his 2016 totals. In the past week Monmouth in FL, Equis in AZ and now this national poll have Trump below his 2016 numbers with Hispanics.
Either way this poll is a reminder that there is a lot of vote out here still to be gotten, and that of course is far more problematic for the incumbent than the challenger.
The Senate– AZ and CO continue to look very strong for the Democrats, and polling continues to show Dems with meaningful leads in ME and NC. While polling for Theresa Greenfield in Iowa has been very steady for months a new poll showed Earnt with a lead – so let’s wait and see there. Harrison and Ossoff have made their races competitive in SC and GA, and while Bullock has had a few not so good polls in Montana, he remains a very strong candidate. AK and KS are underperforming for the Rs so we need to keep an eye on both of them. Bottom line – the Senate leans Dem but it is going to go down to the wire.
All the President’s Cheating– It’s becoming increasing clear that out and out cheating has become central to Trump’s understanding of how to stay in power this year. We think far more attention had to be paid to the President’s illicit appropriation of government resources for his campaign (what got him Impeached); the erasure of the line between campaign and government; clear election law violations; undermining of the integrity election and rancid voter suppression; the holding of rallies which violate COVID protocols and common sense; the relentless lying, disinformation and use of manipulated media…..cheating has become a central strategic pillar of Trump’s campaign, up there with paid advertising, candidate visits, GOTV, debate prep. It is wrong, illiberal and needs to be far more aggressively challenged in the days ahead.
