US Economy And Trade Policy

NDN has written extensively on trade policy under the Trump administration and the state of the economy more broadly under the past three Presidents. Below you can find economic and political analysis of Trump's unprecedented experiment in protectionism since 2018, the state of the Trump economy compared to that of Obama, and the effect of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Trade Policy

NDN Applauds New Democrat Coalition Letter On Section 232 Auto Tariffs - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/13/20 - NDN is pleased to pass along a letter released today by the New Democrat Coalition that strongly criticizes the President for withholding the Section 232 report on potential auto tariffs that the President is legally required to release to Congress.

The Threat Of Trump's Trade Agenda - Chris Taylor, The Washington Monthly, 1/23/20 - In a new piece for the Washington Monthly, Chris Taylor examines how Democrats should construct their new trade agenda, and challenge the President's reckless trade policies, now that the USMCA has been successfully passed. You can also find an excerpt of the piece posted to NDN's website here.

Congress Must Have A Robust Post-USMCA Trade Agenda - Chris Taylor, NDN, 1/7/20 - It is critical that Congress doesn't wash its hand of trade policy now that the USMCA debate is over, because the President's larger, destructive trade strategy continues to erode the global rules-based trade system.

Trump Concedes The Trade War To China - Chris Taylor, NDN, 12/17/19 - Trump’s trade deal with China offers no details on the structural reforms that were the entire point of the trade war. Instead, all the US receives is the promise of agricultural exports that are barely above the pre-2017 trend and could very easily not take place.

America's Experiment With Protectionism Is Failing - Chris Taylor, NDN, 9/18/19 - America’s great experiment with protectionism hasn’t revived manufacturing or reduced the trade deficit, but instead has destroyed over 300,000 jobs and cost the average household $1,000.

New Study Shows America Embracing Free Trade, Rejecting America First - Chris Taylor, NDN, 7/29/19 - New polling data from Pew shows widespread, and growing, support for free trade among Americans. Democrats, in particular, have become a fundamentally pro-trade party, saying that free trade agreements are good for the US by a 58 point margin.

Democrats Must Demonstrate Greater Leadership In Challenging Trump's Ruinous Trade Policy - Simon Rosenberg, Twitter, 5/8/19 - Democrats should be more aggressive in challenging Trump’s tariffs and trade policies given the failure of those policies to achieve their objectives and growing discontent with them around the country.

Challenging Trump's Tariffs - An Ongoing Series - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/14/19 - In a new series challenging Trump's tariffs, we argue that the President's trade policy is illegal, recklessly ignorant, damaging to the US economy, and historically unpopular. Congress must step up and rescind them this fall.

Trump Economic Record

Much More Economic Support Is Needed To Prevent A Lost Decade- Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/5/20- Over the past few weeks, we've begun to receive data on the state of the economy during the coronavirus crisis, and the numbers are even worse than expected. The first quarter GDP fell by 4.8% on an annualized basis, the second worse quarterly decline since 1982 (only Q4 2008 was worse at -8.4%), and economists now project that Q2 GDP will decline by over 25%, by far the largest quarterly decline since the Second World War. 

How Congress Should Build A Stimulus Package To Counter The Coronavirus Crisis - Chris Taylor, NDN, 3/19/20- Chris Taylor details why Congress should aim for a massive fiscal stimulus right now and should aim to achieve three broad goals with their proposal: shore up the healthcare system and pandemic-response, provide aid to workers and businesses directly harmed by the pandemic, and conduct a massive cash transfer program to boost the overall economy.

Recession Fears Resurface As Coronavirus Batters The Global Economy- Christ Taylor, NDN, 2/24/20-  Chris Taylor explains that there are two key factors that underlie the S&P 500 falling by almost 5% and the yield curve dropping to its weakest since October 13th. The first, of course, is the emergence of the coronavirus epidemic. The second factor is that the US economy was in a weak structural condition even before coronavirus began affecting global markets.

Trump's New Budget Proposal Is Incoherent Yet Immensely Dangerous - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/10/20 - Three years of economic policy under the Trump administration are well represented by just a few words: incoherent yet immensely dangerous. It is fitting then that the budget proposal released by the administration today continues this trend.

Trump's Make-Believe Economic Record - Chris Taylor, NDN, 2/5/20 - It is simply not true that Trump has overseen an economic revival since 2016, and actually almost every macro-economic trend has declined to some extent under Trump.

New Data Highlights That Trump's "Greatest Economy Ever" Wasn't Actually So Great In 2018 – Chris Taylor, NDN, 8/21/19 - Updated data on growth, jobs, and investment reveals the extent of Trump’s failed promises on the economy. There is little evidence that Trump’s tax and trade policies boosted investment, and both economic and jobs growth either declined or remained constant from 2017 to 2018.

Beyond The Headlines, The Economy Continues To Weaken - Chris Taylor, Medium, 5/7/19 - The new narrative that the economy is back to growing strongly is significantly flawed, and is largely based upon two economic reports whose headlines were very strong but whose underlying data revealed continued weakness in the economy.  

Weekly Notes On The Economy - Chris Taylor, NDN, 5/7/19 - Weekly Notes On The Economy is a weekly column that NDN writes on the most recent economic news, policy, and data.

Tax Policy

Trump's Tax Cuts Have Failed To Deliver On Their Promises - Chris Taylor, NDN, 10/30/18 - Trump’s tax cut promised to boost growth by strengthening the labor market and investment, but today both metrics look very similar to their pre-tax cut trend. Instead, the deficit has surged to unprecedented levels and rapidly increasing interest rates are hurting ordinary Americans.